Ballina (NSW) horses tips & previews

5 Nov, 1:36 pm AEDT

One race at a time: field, form guide and win/place odds for Ballina (NSW), with capture times on every price.

Meeting — Mon 2 Nov, 11:00 am AEDT

Meetings · Mon, 2 NovBallina (NSW)Change

Race 4 — Ballina Cup On January 15 Mdn Hcp 1000m · jumps Mon 2 Nov, 4:15 pm AEDT

Race preview

Ballina hosts its Cup meeting on a SOFT7 track this arvo, and the Maiden Handicap over 1000m shapes as a genuine nut-cracker. The win market has Mariner Miss at the top, with Prestige Sotirio next, followed by Spirit Of Asia and Time Has Come. It's a race where recent trial form and a rider in form could make all the difference on soft going.

Mariner Miss comes in as the favourite, returning from 24 weeks for a fresh campaign after her Victoria stint. She's got a rating of 95 and trialled well for this comeback, though her record from fresh is only modest at two runs without a win. Prestige Sotirio, from the Stephen & Jordan Lee yard, has jockey Luke Rolls in the saddle—the bloke's running 50 per cent above market expectation over his last hundred rides—and he brings genuine trial form: an easy win at Lismore over 1010m on SOFT7. The form line here looks solid, though the outside gate at five is a real headache. Spirit Of Asia shapes intriguingly too. Trained by D Chujo, the stable is outperforming market odds by 47 per cent, and the winning trial at Lismore over this exact 1010m distance on SOFT7 has genuine punch.

Time Has Come, despite barrier two and early speed, comes with baggage: the jockey-trainer combo are down 41 points of profit on turnover across their last hundred races, and the horse's two runs to date have been well-beaten at Grafton. Courtney Bellamy partners Sienna Of Brighton and rides 26 per cent above market edge, but this runner is a first-starter with no form on file. The speedGroups show Prestige Sotirio, Spirit Of Asia and Sienna Of Brighton will battle for early position, while Mariner Miss drops back. On soft going and trial form, this looks a shoot-out between the Lee stable's runner and the Chujo horse, with the favourite very much in the mix fresh.

Race notes

MDN,MDN HCP,Maiden
SOFT7
Fine
5 runners

Shortest win price

Mariner Miss (11)

2.25

Speed map

Back left · leaders right

Firststart

3Prestige Sotirio
8Sienna Of Brighton
9Spirit Of Asia

Backmarker

11Mariner Miss

Leader

7Time Has Come

Prestige Sotirio · Positive
Rider SR
Jockey recent POT is 32% better than Career Avg.
Time Has Come · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -41% POT in their L100 Races
Sienna Of Brighton · Positive
Rider SR
Jockey recent POT is 33% better than Career Avg.
Spirit Of Asia · Positive
Hot J/T Combo
Combo are winning 27% POT in their L100 Races

No.RunnerBarWgtLast 5WinPlace

1Bar StarScratched4––––

Career

1: 0-1-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed20%
Rating100%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Gatton
1: 0-1-0
Distance 860m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
1: 0-1-0

Last starts

2Gatton860m1 Oct 2026 · MDN-SW · GOOD40.92L
1Beaudesert900m25 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)-0.1
4Gold Coast850m8 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)2.8L

Insights

Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 19% POT in L100 Runners
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Fitness
Positive
At peak fitness backing up
Raceday Experience
Positive
Wiser for debut run
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Fresh. Signalled some ability on debut at Gatton 1 Oct. Better for it and looks a serious player.

ILB

Backing up quickly. Was $16.00 and finished 6th last time at Gold Coast.

Not beaten too far when sixth of ten (Gold Coast) on Saturday in a maiden; makes limited appeal.

RSIS

Racing on a quick back up. Started 15/1 and ran 6th last time at Gold Coast.

2Prestige ReignScratched3––––

Career

1: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
Early Speed100%
Rating60%
Closing Speed20%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Casino
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

8Casino1000m29 Oct 2026 · CTRY MDN-SW · SOFT53.56L
7Grafton940m13 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · HEAVY(8)2.8L
6Grafton940m25 Jan 2026 · Barrier Trial17.4L

Insights

Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 27%

Comments

AAP

Trials (2:0-0-0). $12k purchase. Out of a half-sister to the stakes winner Expansion. Unplaced in trials but latest was okay on a hvy8. Nice gate. Look to betting.

3Prestige SotirioJ: Luke Rolls·T: Stephen & Jordan Lee557.5kg1$2.45$1.26

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed50%
Rating80%
Closing Speed50%

Last starts

1Lismore1010m18 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(7)-3.3

Insights

Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 32% better than Career Avg.
Key Rider
Positive
Luke Rolls 50% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Key Jockey
Positive
Luke Rolls winning at 19% POT in last 100 rides
On Debut
Positive
First race start

Comments

AAP

Trials (1:1-0-0). Looked on point with an easy trial win at Lismore. Educated here but has an outside gate. Big watch.

ILB

Stephen Lee & Jordan Lee 3yo runner on debut by Sandbar. Winner in a trial at Lismore on Oct 18th. Watch the market moves.

Makes competitive race debut; trainer has had debut winner recently; can make his presence felt with signs of encouragement in profile.

RSIS

3yo by Sandbar racing as a debutant for Stephen Lee & Jordan Lee. Winner in a trial at Lismore on Oct 18th. Respect the betting.

4Prestige SpecialScratched5––––

Rating · IRD

Figures

Jockey50%
Trainer40%
Jockey/Trainer Combo50%
Early Speed50%
Rating50%
Closing Speed50%

Insights

First Starter
Positive
Not raced previously

Comments

AAP

Trials (2:0-0-1). $145k purchase. Out of a stakes-placed mare who won two races. Latest trial was okay. Trained here. Can make an early impression.

5Prestige BlueScratched7––––

Career

1: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo60%
Early Speed20%
Rating40%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Grafton
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

7Ballina1000m4 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(3)8.6L
6Grafton1000m15 Mar 2026 · 2Y MDN-SW · GOOD43.4L
2Grafton940m25 Jan 2026 · Barrier Trial0.6L

Insights

1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Raceday Experience
Positive
Wiser for debut run
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Back for second campaign (33-weeks). Ex Jordan Lee and trained here now. Reasonable debut performance when battled to line at Grafton. Since trialled at Ballina. Can progress.

ILB

First up from a break of 33 weeks. Was $9.00 and weakened to finish 6th last run at Grafton but having second career run. Large claim helps.

Sixth but beaten only 3½l on his debut at Grafton over this distance at 8-1 in March; layoff to overcome.

RSIS

Back after break of 33 weeks. Was 8/1 and lost ground in the run home when 6th last time at Grafton but was a debutant last start.

6NaystarScratched10––––

Career

2: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey80%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed20%
Rating40%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Ballina
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Track Grafton
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0

Last starts

6Ballina1000m4 Oct 2026 · Maiden · GOOD34.43L
5Grafton940m21 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)3.9L
6Grafton1000m19 Apr 2026 · 2Y HCP · GOOD36L
2Beaudesert1050m9 Apr 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)2.6L
5Gold Coast1000m27 Mar 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)9.6L
2Lismore1010m10 Nov 2025 · Barrier Trial11.4L

Insights

Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 10% better than Career Avg.
Trainer SR
Negative
Matthew Dunn striking at just 12%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 24%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 7%
Gap In Runs
Negative
Not raced for 29 days
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Kept fresh following return. Went home tamely this course at second appearance at $21. Better for race experience and open to progression.

ILB

Didn't attack the line when 6th last run at this venue.

Not disgraced when sixth of nine last month; passed over.

RSIS

Faded away to finish 6th last start at this track.

7Time Has ComeJ: Danny Peisley·T: Fleur Henley256kg2 9 62: 0-0-0$14.00$3.70

Career

2: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

100

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating100%
Closing Speed20%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Grafton
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1015m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

6Grafton1200m24 July 2026 · CTRY MDN · GOOD35.4L
9Grafton1015m5 July 2026 · 2Y MDN-SW · SOFT510L
2Grafton970m6 June 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(6)0.2L

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -41% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 18% POT in L100 Runners
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Back for second campaign (14-weeks). Well beaten in two runs to date. Others with more appeal.

ILB

Fresh today after a break. Lost ground in the run home when 6th last run at Grafton. Giving another go here and drawn nicely. Expecting to settle positively. Worth a lot of thought in this race.

Beaten 5½l (sixth) at Grafton over 6f (handicap) three months ago; this just his second run in a handicap; others more likely.

RSIS

Resuming after a break. Couldn't stay in touch when 6th last start at Grafton. Expected to rebound and can find a nice position from the draw. Should go well.

8Sienna Of BrightonJ: Courtney Bellamy·T: Scott Henley155.5kg7$13.00$3.60

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed50%
Rating60%
Closing Speed50%

Last starts

7Grafton940m19 July 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)5.8L

Insights

Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 33% better than Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Positive
Courtney Bellamy 26% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
First Starter
Positive
Not raced previously
Blinkers On
Positive
Trainer has opted for the Blinkers on, take note

Comments

AAP

Trials (1:0-0-0). $30k purchase. Out of a three-quarter-sister to the stakes winner Shakespearean. Will come on from the lone Grafton trial and has benefit of decent alley. Look to market.

ILB

Debutant 3yo by Palace Pier for trainer Scott Henley and has minimal work to do from the draw. Interesting gear change of blinkers on first time. Watch for a sign in the market.

First start under rules for this three-year-old daughter of Palace Pier; in the mix.

RSIS

Career debut 3yo by Palace Pier for trainer Scott Henley and drawn by the rails. Interesting to see the blinkers go on for the first time. Betting as a guide.

9Spirit Of AsiaJ: Noriyuki Masuda·T: D Chujo455.5kg5 1$5.50$2.20

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey80%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed50%
Rating20%
Closing Speed50%

Last starts

1Lismore1010m18 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(7)-0.4
5Ballina1000m4 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(3)7.3L

Insights

Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are winning 27% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Form
Positive
In form stable, out performing market expectations 47%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 34% POT in L100 Runners
Watch Betting
Negative
If supported, follow in

Comments

AAP

Trials (2:1-0-0). $60k purchase. Dam won two races. Indicated progression winning latest trial at Lismore.

ILB

First race appearance 3yo by Captivant for Daiki Chujo. Winner in a barrier trial at Lismore on Oct 18th. Respect the betting.

Making her racecourse bow; related to 5f winner Etude; is respected.

RSIS

Initial appearance 3yo by Captivant for Daiki Chujo. Success in a trial at Lismore on Oct 18th.

10Field Of ClansScratched8––––

Career

2: 0-1-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offmidfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed20%
Rating80%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
2: 0-1-0
Track Ipswich
1: 0-1-0
Track Rockhampton
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1050m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-1-0
Going Soft
2: 0-1-0

Last starts

2Ipswich1100m30 Oct 2026 · MDN · SOFT51.95L
1Ballina1000m4 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(3)-0.9
2Beaudesert900m25 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)1.3L
6Rockhampton1050m14 Nov 2025 · 2Y MDN-SW · SOFT63.9L

Insights

Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start

Comments

AAP

Second campaign (50-weeks). Ex Clinton Taylor in QLD. Reasonable debut performance when battled to line at Rockhampton when in the market. Comes back stronger and tuned with 2 trials.

ILB

On a quick back up. In the money when 2nd last start at Ipswich.

Ran well to finish second (beaten 2l) over 5½f at Ipswich (handicap) on debut for this trainer on Friday; this just her second run in a handicap.

RSIS

Backing up quickly. Did well when 2nd last time at Ipswich.

11Mariner MissJ: Kyle Wilson-Taylor·T: Billy Healey355kg7 4 2 4 88: 0-1-1$2.25$1.24

Career

8: 0-1-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed20%
Rating80%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Naracoorte
1: 0-0-0
Track Mornington
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
6: 0-1-1
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
5: 0-1-0
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-1
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

8Pakenham1100m15 May 2026 · 3YF MDN-SW · SOFT57.4L
4Donald1000m2 May 2026 · 2yo+ · GOOD32.1L
2Donald1000m14 Apr 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD41.8L
4Naracoorte1200m8 Feb 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD43.2L
7Cranbourne1000m17 Jan 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · GOOD310.1L
7Mornington1000m1 Jan 2026 · 3YF MDN-SW · GOOD43.8L
12Bendigo1000m13 July 2025 · 2Y MDN-SW · HEAVY811.9L
3Bendigo1000m26 June 2025 · 2YF MDN-SW · HEAVY85L

Insights

Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 35% lower than Career Avg.
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 9%
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 29%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 38% Profit on Turnover
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 42% in L100 rides
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance

Comments

AAP

First-up (24-weeks). Ex Henry Dwyer in Victoria. Capable fresh and trialled well for return. Not out of it fresh in this line-up.

ILB

First up and solid effort when finishing 2nd first up last preparation at Donald. First race for a new trainer. Tough competitor.

Winless with run of consecutive defeats standing at eight; held when eighth beaten 7l at Pakenham over 5½f (maiden) six months ago; returns from a layoff; representing new trainer today; others appeal more.

RSIS

Resuming and managed to run into 2nd resuming last preparation at Donald. Change in trainer. Interesting gear change of blinkers off first time. No surprise to see solid support in the betting.

Odds correct as at Mon 2 Nov, 4:20 pm AEDT. Odds can change.

Past meetings

Sun 4 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 7 races