Shortest win price
Niccimota (1)
2.05
Belmont's serving up a cracking Class 5 sprint at 6:45 pm AEDT over 1000 metres on a Good4 track, and the win market's got a genuine story to tell. Niccimota's shortest-priced, with Cannykev and King's Drama next in the betting. Raw Umber and Blue Can Talk round out the chasing pack. It's a race that looks set up for tempo control—Niccimota and Rodney Oh Rodney will be pressing forward early, while Raw Umber's drawn to lead from barrier 7. That shapes a proper test for the midfielders, and there's real form to unpick among the fancies.
Niccimota profiles as the logical choice here, and Sharni Webster's booking tells the tale—the jockey's running 23% above market expectations in her last hundred rides, with recent form sitting 22% above her career average. Coming off a 47-day let-up, she settled second at Belmont over this distance in a 66+ Handicap on Soft5 going, sent forward and stuck to the task bravely. The record reads five wins from 25 starts, and she's solid on the quick back-up: first-up, second-up, third-up all showing winning form. Rating 100 puts her right in the frame. Cannykev's the query—she's racing in stronger company and finished within striking distance of a 66+ Handicap at Ascot over this journey recently, but the sectional data suggests a slow early pace might not suit her midfield design, and back-to-back sixths before that tell their own story. King's Drama from barrier 9 went down by a whisker at Ascot on 24 October, setting alight with the quickest finishing sectionals on show, though the jockey-trainer combo's had a rough run of it lately.
Raw Umber earned respect with a win over the mile at Belmont two back but then compound at Ascot over the longer 1400 metres when sent out at $21—suggesting the step up in distance caught him. He's a leader by design, and while previous form's solid, the concerns about fading towards the finish last start and struggling with slow early tempos are worth noting. Jessica Gray, booked for Repeater, is another jockey flying at 30% above market expected in her last hundred, and she's delivering 27% return on investment lately—that's a genuine edge for a horse drawn barrier 3 in the midfield group. The story here shapes as tempo-dependent, with early pace likely to be a weapon for the onpace runners.
Shortest win price
Niccimota (1)
2.05
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Offmidfield
Midfield
Offpace
Onpace
Leader
Niccimota · Positive
Rider SR
Jockey recent POT is 22% better than Career Avg.
Cannykev · Negative
Early Sectionals
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
King's Drama · Positive
Fast Finisher
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Repeater · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 27% in Last 100 Rides
Career
25: 5-5-4
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
5: 1-1-1
Second-up
4: 1-1-1
Third-up
4: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
3: 0-1-1
Track Ascot
11: 0-3-1
Track Belmont
11: 3-2-2
Track CurrentTrack
11: 3-2-2
Distance 1000m
25: 5-5-4
Going Good
12: 2-3-2
Going Heavy
2: 2-0-0
Going Soft
11: 1-2-2
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 22% better than Career Avg.
Key Rider
Positive
Sharni Webster 23% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Improver
Positive
Poised to improve on recent form here
Fresh
Positive
Freshened up. Had a break of 42-60 days
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Let-up (47-days). Sent forward and stuck to the task bravely in the 3yo+ (Bm66+) this track over this distance. On pacer. Profiles strongly.
ILB
Freshened for this. Competed in a tight contest last run around here and challenged by less formidable competitors. Will be positive in the run early. Exhibiting good form this campaign. Expect a bold effort.
RP
Has been fairly consistent lately and record over this course and distance is three wins from 11 runs; close up second 47 days ago; can be in the thick of things.
RSIS
Let up. Threw down a serious challenge last run here and stepping down to a lower level. Should race on the pace. Performing well recently. Major chance.
Career
19: 3-4-3
Rating · IRD
96
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
4: 0-1-0
Second-up
3: 1-1-0
Third-up
3: 0-0-2
Fourth-up
3: 0-1-0
Track Belmont
5: 1-1-1
Track CurrentTrack
5: 1-1-1
Track Kalgoorlie
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
9: 3-1-1
Distance 1100m
3: 0-1-0
Distance 1200m
7: 0-2-2
Going Good
17: 3-4-3
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Weight Increase
Negative
Rises 6kg now
AAP
Finished within striking distance 3yo+ (Bm66+) at Ascot over this journey. Capable of making an impact.
ILB
Jumped at $7.50 and tailed off to finish 6th last run at Ascot. Can make a comeback and up against a less competitive field. Winning potential.
RP
Has winning form over this course and distance on the CV; this is his grade; finished sixth last month albeit only beaten just over 1l (Ascot) when just behind King's Drama; capable of going well if duplicating the form of his most recent win.
RSIS
Started 13/2 and weakened under pressure when 6th last start at Ascot. Expected to rebound and competing in an easier class. Natika Riordan is very comfortable aboard. Large claim helps. Strong chance.
Career
22: 3-2-7
Rating · IRD
81
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
3: 0-1-1
Second-up
2: 1-0-1
Third-up
2: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
2: 1-0-1
Track Belmont
11: 2-0-2
Track CurrentTrack
11: 2-0-2
Track Northam
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1000m
13: 1-2-4
Distance 1100m
2: 0-0-2
Distance 1200m
6: 2-0-1
Going Good
17: 2-2-7
Going Soft
5: 1-0-0
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -24% POT in their L100 Races
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 12%
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Awkward Draw
Negative
May find this draw awkward
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Track And Dist
Negative
Has a poor record at this track and trip
AAP
Patiently handled, set alight and went down narrowly in the 3yo+ (Bm66+) at Ascot 24 Oct. Very fit, not out of this.
ILB
Close up last time at Ascot and back in an easier grade. Should be swooping on the field late. Goes up in weight. Minor claims.
RP
Has been consistent of late; has won here; went close when runner-up finished just ahead of Cannykev at Ascot two weeks ago.
RSIS
Competed in a tight contest last time at Ascot and facing weaker opposition. Will be trying to topple them late. Bit of extra work to do with more weight.
Career
24: 5-2-1
Rating · IRD
78
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
5: 1-0-0
Second-up
3: 1-1-0
Third-up
3: 1-1-0
Fourth-up
3: 0-0-0
Track Belmont
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Track Leonora
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
6: 0-2-0
Distance 1400m
3: 1-0-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
16: 2-2-1
Going Heavy
1: 1-0-0
Going Soft
7: 2-0-0
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 27% in Last 100 Rides
Jockey Booking
Positive
Jessica Gray 30% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -22% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Form
Positive
In form stable, out performing market expectations 49%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 27% POT in L100 Runners
Hot Jockey
Positive
Jessica Gray in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 30%
Tricky Map
Negative
Runners with this map, underperform market by 4%
Dist Drop
Negative
Distance decrease from last start
AAP
Unable to make an impression at Leinster over longer test. Back over a trip short of best. Leaning towards others here.
ILB
At $6.50 weakened to finish 5th last start at Leinster and will be facing a significant drop in distance. Needs significant improvement.
RP
Admirable career strike-rate (five from 24 to date); finished fifth but wasn't beaten too far (8l) over 7f at Leinster (handicap) 19 days ago; in the mix.
RSIS
Started 11/2 and was well beaten when 5th last run at Leinster and coming back in distance.
Career
4: 2-0-0
Rating · IRD
79
Speed map
Leader
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 1-0-0
Third-up
1: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Pinjarra
1: 1-0-0
Track Ascot
1: 0-0-0
Track Belmont
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1400m
2: 1-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 2-0-0
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Form At Track
Positive
1 time winner here at Belmont
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Won a 1400m Rst 0 Met Win-LY at Belmont Park two back. Led, compounded at Ascot over longer test at $21. Leader. Respect on previous sound form.
ILB
Was $21.00 and struggled with the pace when 9th last time at Ascot and back to a shorter distance. Has shown early pace in races to date. Not at all out of this race.
RP
Could not manage better than ninth over 7f at Ascot (conditions race) three weeks ago; track has proven suitable before; winner of two of his four runs to date; he's worth a go if excused most recent run as achieved handicap success two runs back.
RSIS
Started 20/1 and lost ground in the run home when 9th last run at Ascot and will be dropping in distance. Should muster plenty of early toe.
Career
26: 5-1-3
Rating · IRD
71
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
4: 0-1-0
Second-up
3: 1-0-0
Third-up
3: 2-0-0
Fourth-up
3: 1-0-1
Track Albany
2: 0-0-1
Track Narrogin
1: 1-0-0
Track Pingrup
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
8: 1-0-0
Distance 1100m
11: 2-1-2
Going Good
21: 4-1-2
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
4: 1-0-1
Jockey Booking
Negative
Brayden Gaerth current POT is 52% below Career Avg.
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 4%
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 1387%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 33%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 36% Profit on Turnover
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 71% in L100 rides
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
AAP
Resuming (18-weeks). In the minors first-up last campaign. Breaks from an outside gate and up in weight. Others more persuasive.
ILB
First up from a break of 18 weeks and managed to run 2nd beaten by 1/2L first up last preparation at York. Has early speed and positions nicely. Podium finish seems unlikely.
RP
Finished fifth but only beaten just over 1l four months ago; returns from a break here; may have to settle for supporting role with a number of his rivals in good nick.
RSIS
Resuming and displayed good finishing pace when 2nd resuming last preparation at York. Will be pushing for a forward position early.
Career
10: 2-1-1
Rating · IRD
78
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
5: 0-1-0
Second-up
2: 1-0-1
Third-up
2: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Belmont
2: 1-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
2: 1-0-0
Track Northam
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1000m
6: 2-1-0
Distance 1200m
4: 0-0-1
Going Good
7: 1-0-1
Going Soft
3: 1-1-0
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 26% in Last 100 Rides
Jockey Booking
Positive
Holly Watson 25% above market expected in L100 Rides
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Form At Track
Positive
1 time winner here at Belmont
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Resuming (28-weeks). 6yo with spaced form. Trial was pleasing. Tough ask fresh off the long lay-off.
ILB
Resumes from a 28 week break. Was $15.00 and ran 5th last run at Ascot but drawn the rails. Tongue tie go off for the first time. Will be a difficult test.
RP
Not disgraced when fifth at Ascot in April; can boast winning form over this C&D; quite a while since she tasted success; returns from an absence here; a lot on her plate here and looks risky.
RSIS
Racing fresh after a break of 28 weeks. At 14/1 ran 5th last start at Ascot but drawn by the rails.
Career
40: 4-5-8
Rating · IRD
75
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
5: 2-1-0
Second-up
4: 0-0-0
Third-up
4: 1-1-0
Fourth-up
4: 0-0-2
Track Pinjarra
2: 0-0-0
Track Ascot
5: 0-1-0
Track Bunbury
7: 0-1-2
Distance 1000m
10: 1-1-1
Distance 1100m
15: 2-3-4
Distance 1200m
15: 1-1-3
Going Good
32: 2-5-7
Going Soft
8: 2-0-1
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 763%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 2
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Ready To Strike
Positive
Can be rewarded for recent consistent form
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Ran on late from the back at Ascot over this journey. Shapes as a rough place prospect.
ILB
Was $51.00 and kept chasing when 4th last start at Ascot and can find a nice position from the draw. Can't back with any confidence.
RP
Respectable effort to finish fourth, beaten 2l at Ascot three weeks ago; brings winning C&D form to the table; has struggled to factor since winning a handicap at Belmont Park in August; this looks a decent race so looks risky.
RSIS
Started at 50/1 and improved when 4th last start at Ascot and has a positive stall.
Career
50: 5-4-4
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
7: 1-0-1
Second-up
6: 1-1-1
Third-up
6: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
5: 1-0-1
Track CurrentTrack
12: 1-1-1
Track York
6: 2-0-0
Track Ascot
6: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
16: 0-1-2
Distance 1100m
7: 3-1-1
Distance 1190m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
38: 5-2-2
Going Heavy
1: 0-1-0
Going Soft
11: 0-1-2
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 15% POT in L100 Runners
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Track And Dist
Negative
Has a poor record at this track and trip
Ready To Fire
Positive
Shown something in last few runs
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Gave good sight filling the minors at Collie. Coming back in distance. This is more demanding.
ILB
Attacked the line when 2nd beaten by 2 3/4L last run at Collie but racing in stronger company. Expected to settle towards the tail. Goes down in weight. Looks to be in trouble.
RP
Was on the premises (runner-up, beaten just under 3l) over 6f at Collie (handicap) last month; has won at this course; not been able to get his head in front lately so others have more pressing claims.
RSIS
Put in a competitive run when placing 2nd last time at Collie but racing in stronger company. Likely to get back in the run. Dropping weight.