Shortest win price
Scoville (6)
2.30
Bendigo kicks off at 12:50 pm AEDT with a three-year-old maiden plate over the sprint trip of 1000 metres on a GOOD4 track in fine weather. The market is tight at the pointy end, which tells you the form line is genuine across this bunch. Scoville sits shortest, followed closely by Resonant and Running Rich, with Magnusaurus Rex fourth. It's a race that could turn either way, and the early tempo shapes as crucial with two leaders locked in at the front.
Scoville rates highest in the market and the form stacks up. Ethan Brown is riding with recent strike rate 27% above his career average, and the combination is outperforming market expectations by 44% over their last 100 rides. A debut second at Ballarat over this distance on 30 September shows promise for a four-week spell, and the feedback from camp suggests valuable lessons were taken from that outing. Resonant, barrier 7 for Nash Rawiller and the Hayes team, missed by just a length on the Pakenham Synthetic at the same trip two weeks back. Rawiller is another jockey in good form—23% above market expected over his last 100—and the form line suggests placing money is there. Running Rich leads the early charge from barrier 6 for Chelsea Jokic and Jarrod Robinson, back for a second campaign after 18 weeks away. A jump-out winner on 14 October and a fair showing in the first prep points to the physical readiness; the speed map suits an aggressive tempo.
Magnusaurus Rex is the fast finisher on the formsheet—fastest overall finishing sectionals last start—and a narrow second to Echuca over this journey on GOOD4 going four weeks back shapes as live. The problem is early tempo; the horse is out of races when the speed is crawling, so if Scoville and Resonant are genuinely suited to this track and conditions, the backmarker may find it tough to unleash. The tip leans toward Scoville as the value angle with Brown and the combination firing, but this is punter's fuel—a genuine argument exists for any of the leading three on the form line alone.
Shortest win price
Scoville (6)
2.30
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Offmidfield
Midfield
Offpace
Onpace
Leader
Magnusaurus Rex · Positive
Fast Finisher
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Resonant · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 10% in Last 100 Rides
Running Rich · Negative
Trainer Career
Trainer Career S/R is 6%
Tandarra · Positive
Jockey Booking
Teodore Nugent 24% above market expected in L100 Rides
Career
3: 0-1-0
Rating · IRD
79
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Echuca
1: 0-1-0
Track Sale
1: 0-0-0
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1206m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
3: 0-1-0
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 1
Ready To Fire
Positive
Shown something in last few runs
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Sound performance in small field at Echuca over this journey. Untested in wet. Only for the minors here.
ILB
Missed by a narrow margin last run at Echuca and drawn well. Gets back and needs luck. Form has been improving over recent runs. Significant improvement required.
RP
Beaten a neck at Echuca last week.
RSIS
Missed by a narrow margin last start at Echuca and drawn the rails. Likely to get back in the field. Demonstrating upward trajectory in recent races.
Career
5: 0-2-0
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
2: 0-2-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-0
Track Flemington
2: 0-0-0
Track Bendigo
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1100m
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
3: 0-1-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-1-0
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 10% in Last 100 Rides
Jockey Booking
Positive
Nash Rawiller 23% above market expected in L100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 125%
Trainer Form
Positive
In form stable, out performing market expectations 53%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 40% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 16%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
AAP
Narrow miss in the 3yo Mdn Plate at Pakenham Synthetic 2 Oct. Better for the outing. In the placings only prior run here. Has a big say here.
ILB
Close to claiming the win last time at Pakenham Synthetic. Jockey Nash Rawiller and trainer Will Ben & Jd Hayes deserve serious attention. Has to be in the finish.
RP
Narrowly beaten and favourite at Pakenham four weeks ago.
RSIS
Close to claiming the win last start at Pakenham Synthetic. Jockey Nash Rawiller and trainer Will Ben & Jd Hayes make an imposing pair. Looks like a winning chance.
Career
4: 0-1-2
Rating · IRD
84
Speed map
Leader
First-up
1: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Flemington
1: 0-0-0
Track Bendigo
1: 0-0-1
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1100m
2: 0-1-1
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1420m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-1-1
Going Soft
2: 0-0-1
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 6%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -45% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 35%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 10%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Lightly Raced
Positive
Limited race experience but shown potential
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
AAP
Back for second campaign (18-weeks). Gave a fair showing in his first prep. In the minors at Echuca on debut last campaign. Semour jump-out winner 14/10. Big show fresh.
ILB
First up from a break of 18 weeks and looked good when 2nd first up last preparation at Echuca. Displays good tactical speed. Challenged by less formidable competitors. Not hopeless.
RP
Winless in four starts but has shown promise with second his top showing; towards the rear of 14 at Flemington in June in a handicap; makes limited appeal.
RSIS
Resuming and placed 2nd resuming last preparation at Echuca. Should come to hand quickly. Matched against lesser competition. Showing consistent performance in races. Back in trip.
Career
1: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Leader
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Jockey Booking
Positive
Teodore Nugent 24% above market expected in L100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 107%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 14% POT in L100 Runners
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
AAP
Second campaign (35-weeks). More mature now. Well down the track at Ballarat on debut at cricket score odds. 3rd & 2nd at recent jump-outs. Watch for any stable support.
ILB
Racing fresh after a 35 week break. Odds of $101.00 and couldn't maintain the pace when 11th last start at Ballarat but was a debutant last start. Will struggle to compete in this race.
RP
Beaten on his debut over 5½f at Ballarat at 100-1 in February; may well improve; should be better for that run.
RSIS
Back from a 35 week break. Was 100/1 and struggled with the pace when 11th last start at Ballarat but was a debutant last start. Should race on the pace.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Firststart
First Starter
Positive
Not raced previously
AAP
First foal to race from dam who retired as a maiden. Has shown ability at the jumpouts. Has claims.
ILB
Grahame Begg 3yo by Too Darn Hot on debut. Watch for a sign in the market.
RSIS
3yo first starter by Too Darn Hot for Grahame Begg.
Career
2: 0-1-0
Rating · IRD
85
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
1: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
2: 0-1-0
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 27% better than Career Avg.
Key Rider
Positive
Ethan Brown 44% above market expected in L100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 51%
Hot Jockey
Positive
Ethan Brown in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 44%
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Now 4 weeks between runs. No match but ran on for the minors at Ballarat on debut 30 Sep. Took valuable lessons. Makes strong appeal.
ILB
Made considerable ground when 2nd beaten by 3L last start at Ballarat and having second race start. Hard to see finishing out of the placings.
RP
Gave a good account on her debut at Ballarat at 5-1 last month; if backing up initial run looks like a player.
RSIS
Did well to place 2nd last run at Ballarat and fitter for debut run. Will be around the mark.
Career
2: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
75
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham
1: 0-0-0
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Jockey Booking
Negative
Lachlan Neindorf current POT is 34% below Career Avg.
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 34% in L100 rides
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Resuming for second prep (41-weeks). Has upside off spell. 2nd at her last couple of jump-outs. Can make her presence felt fresh in this line-up.
ILB
First up from a spell of 41 weeks. Started at $21.00 and faded to finish 7th last run at Pakenham. Interesting gear change of tongue tie off first time. Will need to lift.
RP
Held in seventh (Pakenham) in January; looks likely to be involved.
RSIS
First run back after a break of 41 weeks. Odds of 20/1 and folded up in the straight when 7th last time at Pakenham.
Career
3: 0-1-0
Rating · IRD
90
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
2: 0-1-0
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-0
Track Morphettville
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1125m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-1-0
Trainer SR
Negative
M & L Kavanagh striking at just 2%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 69%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 73% Profit on Turnover
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 12%
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
AAP
Second campaign (18-weeks). In the minors at Morphettville on debut last campaign. Fair debut, but failed to build on it next time out. Looks a safer place proposition.
ILB
First up from a break of 18 weeks and improved to place when 2nd first up last preparation at Morphettville. Possesses very good closing speed. Winning chance.
RP
Beaten eighth of 11 over 5½f at Geelong (maiden) in June; a major contender as shown some ability on occasion.
RSIS
Resuming and caught the eye when 2nd resuming last preparation at Morphettville. Will be hitting the line strongly. Should go well.