Shortest win price
Dirty Look (3)
1.70
Welcome to Bendigo for the Jarrod Larkin Concreting BM70 over 1300m on a Good 4 track under fine skies, where punters are looking at a cracking 3yo+ handicap to get stuck into. Looking at how the win market is shaping up, Dirty Look holds down the mantle as the shortest-priced runner in the field, with Alero sitting right next in line. Rounding out the early top fancies in the market order are Legacy Bay and Flying Embers, setting the scene for an intriguing race as the runners prepare to jump at 4:20 pm AEDT.
Taking a closer look at the form behind those sharp prices, market leader Dirty Look comes out of the stable of G M Begg with Michael Dee in the saddle from barrier 6. This smart type is building a great record, having finished too well to claim victory in a BM70 at Cranbourne second-up before a four-week freshen-up, and is hard to beat here. Meanwhile, Alero is drawn inside in barrier 1 for C Maher and Jabez Johnstone, bringing a victory at this track over 1100m three starts back before finding the going too tough in a heavy quagmire at Flemington. Alero maps to get a sweet run from the inside gate and can certainly challenge.
For punters searching further down the form lines, Flying Embers maps to settle off the pace under Shayleigh Ingelse for Tom Dabernig, looking to improve sharply after racing in the back half and finding it tough to make a serious challenge at Hamilton last time out. With several speedsters like Alero, Acelum, Razzo Rosso, and Wolf Twenty One listed in the leader speed group, there should be plenty of early tempo up front. It is shaping up as a fascinating yarn on the quick back-up for those willing to weigh up the stable angles and map dynamics.
Shortest win price
Dirty Look (3)
1.70
Most career wins
Alero
5-2-2 from 18 starts
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Offmidfield
Midfield
Offpace
Leader
Alero · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -22% POT in their L100 Races
Dirty Look · Positive
Fast Finisher
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Acelum · Positive
Rider SR
Jockey recent POT is 57% better than Career Avg.
Flying Embers · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 88% in Last 100 Rides
Career
18: 5-2-2
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Leader
First-up
4: 1-0-0
Second-up
3: 1-0-1
Third-up
2: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Colac
1: 1-0-0
Track Echuca
1: 0-0-0
Track Flemington
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
3: 1-0-0
Distance 1200m
7: 2-1-1
Going Soft
7: 1-1-1
Going Good
10: 4-1-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -22% POT in their L100 Races
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Form 3rd Up
Positive
Has won 1 from 2 when third up
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Weight Increase
Negative
Rises 5.5kg now
AAP
Shouldered 61kg to victory at Bendigo. Failed to threaten in quagmire conditions at Flemington when second-up at healthy odds. Maps to get a sweet run. Can challenge.
ILB
Lost ground in the run home when 8th last start at Flemington on a heavy rated track. Should improve and competing in a less challenging grade. Has a good draw. Well respected contender.
RP
Held when eighth beaten 11l over 6f at Flemington (handicap) three weeks ago; has won at this track; he meets the required standard ability wise; looks likely to be involved given he won a handicap two runs back.
RSIS
Couldn't stay in touch when 8th last time at Flemington. Likely to bounce back and lining up against easier rivals. Has shown early pace in races to date. Strong competitor.
Career
27: 5-1-3
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
5: 0-1-0
Second-up
4: 1-0-1
Third-up
4: 0-0-2
Fourth-up
4: 3-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
2: 1-0-0
Track Caulfield
3: 0-0-2
Track Caulfield Heath
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1235m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
10: 3-0-2
Going Heavy
3: 1-0-0
Going Soft
11: 3-0-1
Going Good
13: 1-1-2
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 7% in Last 100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 216%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 16%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Form At Track
Positive
1 time winner here at Bendigo
Backup
Positive
Racing again inside one week
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
On a quick back-up. Failed to threaten at Geelong at longer odds. Hard to warm to.
ILB
On a short turnaround. Was well beaten when 9th last start at Geelong.
RP
Held when ninth of 11 over 7f at Geelong (handicap) last Wednesday; has winning form at this track; easy to oppose.
RSIS
Backs up quickly. Lost ground in the run home when 9th last run at Geelong.
Career
6: 3-1-1
Rating · IRD
91
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
2: 1-0-1
Second-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Cranbourne
1: 1-0-0
Track Seymour
1: 0-0-1
Track Caulfield
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
3: 2-0-1
Going Soft
3: 1-1-0
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Consecutive Wins
Positive
Has strung together a few races in a row
Gap In Runs
Negative
Not raced for 33 days
In Form
Positive
Racing in top form recently
AAP
4 weeks since last run. Smart type building a great record. Finished too well to claim victory in the 3yo+ (Bm70) at Cranbourne second-up when supported. Stripping even fitter. Hard to beat.
ILB
Ran home strongly to win last run at Cranbourne. Has hit top form this preparation with 2 wins from as many starts. Strong claims.
RP
Narrow winner of a handicap at Cranbourne five weeks ago; has won three of her six career starts and seeking a hat-trick today; has to be feared.
RSIS
Displayed a good turn of foot when winning last time at Cranbourne. Strong form lately winning 2 from as many attempts. Rates as one of the key chances.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Onpace
Lightly Raced
Positive
Limited race experience but shown potential
AAP
On a winning streak. In touch and fought on dauntlessly at Ballarat last outing. Awkwardly drawn this time. Could add some value to exotics.
ILB
Picked up nicely to win last run at Ballarat and honest performer putting a tidy record together. Looks very sharp this preparation with 3 wins from as many runs.
RSIS
Finished well when winning last time at Ballarat and solid career start. Unbeaten in recent runs with 3 wins from as many starts. Stephanie Hateley provides some weight relief.
Career
8: 3-2-1
Rating · IRD
78
Speed map
Leader
First-up
2: 0-1-1
Second-up
1: 1-0-0
Third-up
1: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Kilmore
1: 1-0-0
Track Pakenham
1: 0-1-0
Track Sale
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1312m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1400m
2: 0-2-0
Distance 1447m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
5: 0-2-1
Going Soft
3: 3-0-0
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 57% better than Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Positive
Nadia Daniels 75% above market expected in L100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 192%
Hot Trainer
Positive
Ben, Will & Jd Hayes in good form, out performing market 53%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 40% POT in L100 Runners
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Awkward Draw
Negative
Would have liked a better draw
Long Break
Negative
Resumes from a 340 day break (> 300 days)
AAP
Resuming (48-weeks). In the minors at Geelong first-up last campaign. Rough place prospect only fresh in this affair.
ILB
First up after 48 weeks and did well when 3rd first up last preparation at Geelong. Matched against less formidable competition. Needs to improve.
RP
Beaten 5l into sixth in a conditions race (Cranbourne) last November; can be a player at this level; returns from a break here; winner two starts ago and shortlisted.
RSIS
Resuming and nice run when 3rd resuming last preparation at Geelong. Will find this grade easier.
Career
16: 4-3-1
Rating · IRD
92
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
5: 1-0-0
Second-up
3: 0-3-0
Third-up
3: 2-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 1-0-0
Track Wyong
1: 0-1-0
Track Randwick
3: 1-0-1
Track Hawkesbury
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1350m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1400m
6: 2-0-1
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
4: 0-1-0
Going Heavy
5: 2-1-1
Going Soft
7: 2-1-0
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 88% in Last 100 Rides
Jockey Booking
Positive
Shayleigh Ingelse 125% above market expected in L100 Rides
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 5% POT in L100 Runners
Key Jockey
Positive
Shayleigh Ingelse winning at 91% POT in last 100 rides
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 16%
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Raced in back half and was never in a position to mount a serious challenge at Hamilton. Will be fitter second-up and takes a 2kg claim. Warrants attention.
ILB
Jumped at $3.40 and couldn't maintain the pace when 9th last run at Hamilton. Expected to rebound. Expecting a solid performance.
RP
Disappointing to see her finish ninth two weeks ago given market expectations over 5½f at Hamilton (handicap) on debut for this trainer; has achieved four wins from 16 career runs; should prove competitive as has been on the scene in the recent past.
RSIS
Started at 12/5 and was well beaten when 9th last start at Hamilton. Has the ability to turn things around. Strong prospects.
Career
9: 3-0-0
Rating · IRD
80
Speed map
Leader
First-up
3: 1-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 1-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Track Horsham
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham Synthetic
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1175m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
3: 2-0-0
Distance 1230m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
6: 1-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
2: 2-0-0
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 46%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Failed to threaten at Horsham. Not fancied.
ILB
Odds of $12.00 and didn't find the line when 9th last time at Horsham. Brad Rawiller is a key booking. Should muster plenty of early toe. Big improvement required to threaten these.
RP
Finished tailed off over 6f at Horsham (handicap) ten days ago; others are preferred.
RSIS
Started at 11/1 and weakened to finish 9th last start at Horsham. Brad Rawiller is a suitable booking. Has early pace and positions nicely.
Rating · IRD
20
AAP
Third outing for new trainer/ this region. Off pace, unable to muster and only battled home 7th this venue. Locally trained but has a tricky draw. Looking elsewhere.
ILB
Faded away to finish 7th last start at this venue.
RSIS
Weakened under pressure when 7th last time at the track.
Career
10: 3-0-2
Rating · IRD
88
Speed map
Leader
First-up
4: 2-0-0
Second-up
2: 1-0-1
Third-up
2: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Bendigo
1: 0-0-1
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-1
Track Caulfield
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1000m
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
5: 2-0-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
3: 2-0-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
2nd Up S/R
Positive
Has won 1 from 2 when second up
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Finished well held at Ballarat off spell. Prefers better than heavy. Not fancied.
ILB
Started at $17.00 and looked outclassed when 11th last time at Ballarat. Displays good tactical speed. Solid prospects.
RP
Close up behind Blue Bandit when last at Ballarat over 6f (handicap) three weeks ago; record shows he knows where the winning post is (wins-runs career record of 3-10); others more appealing.
RSIS
Was 16/1 and didn't find the line when 11th last run at Ballarat. Should be going forward early. Definitely worth considering.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Leader
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 48%
Track Stats
Positive
Excels at this track
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Down In Weight
Positive
Drops 4kg from LS run
AAP
Led them up but melted under pressure at Cranbourne off long break. Better conditioned. Has early speed. Could get into the placings.
ILB
Started $16.00 and tired in the run home when 4th last time at Cranbourne and gets some weight relief. Added confidence with Jake Noonan doing the steering.
RSIS
Started 15/1 and outmuscled in the late stages of the race when 4th last start at Cranbourne and will appreciate the drop in weight.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Backmarker
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 27% in Last 100 Rides
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 12% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 16%
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Honest
Positive
Finishing in the money lately
AAP
Racing in fine order. Out the back, closed with raking strides in the 3yo+ F&M (Bm70) at Seymour. Has some claims.
ILB
Hit the line well when 2nd last run at Seymour. In top racing shape since coming back from a break.
RSIS
Made some ground late when 2nd beaten by 1/2L last run at Seymour. Putting up notable efforts since resuming from a break.
Career
16: 3-2-2
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
2: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 1-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-0
Track Mornington
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
5: 1-1-1
Distance 1500m
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
6: 1-1-1
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
8: 2-1-1
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Hot Trainer
Positive
Andrea Leek in good form, out performing market 46%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 24% POT in L100 Runners
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Needs To Imp
Negative
Finished towards the tail last start
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Raced in back half and was never in a position to mount a serious challenge at Ballarat. Suited wet, though others preferred.
ILB
Jumped at $16.00 and weakened to finish 9th last run at Ballarat but drawn beautifully. Jye Mcneil takes the reins today.
RP
Form has been a bit mixed lately; fair effort when beaten 5l, finishing ninth of 11 over 6f at Ballarat (handicap) three weeks ago on debut for this trainer; others more likely.
RSIS
Started at 15/1 and struggled with the pace when 9th last run at Ballarat but has minimal work to do from the stall. Jye Mcneil is a key engagement.
Career
9: 1-3-2
Rating · IRD
88
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
3: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-0
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-1-0
Track Bendigo
3: 0-2-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
5: 1-2-2
Distance 1400m
2: 0-1-0
Going Good
8: 0-3-2
Going Soft
1: 1-0-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -24% POT in their L100 Races
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
First-up (22-weeks). Unknown in wet. Only win to date was this distance. Shapes as a rough place prospect fresh in this affair.
ILB
First up from a break. Started $8.50 and finished 7th last time at Ballarat but will appreciate the drop in weight. Should race on the speed. Should be in the finish.
RP
Not beaten that far in seventh (just under 5l) at Ballarat over 6f (handicap) in May; returns from a break here; others appeal more.
RSIS
First run back today. At 15/2 ran 7th last start at Ballarat but dropping weight. Should muster plenty of early toe. In the mix against these.
Career
18: 2-5-4
Rating · IRD
92
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
5: 1-0-2
Second-up
3: 0-1-1
Third-up
3: 0-2-0
Fourth-up
3: 1-1-0
Track Bendigo
1: 0-0-0
Track Seymour
1: 0-0-0
Track Caulfield
5: 0-1-2
Distance 1100m
4: 1-0-1
Distance 1200m
7: 0-2-2
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
11: 1-4-3
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
6: 1-1-1
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 5%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -32% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 62%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 65% Profit on Turnover
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 44% in L100 rides
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Got back, never a serious danger but not disgraced at Seymour. Better for the outing. Can have a major say.
ILB
Jumped at $4.60 and didn't threaten when 9th last time at Seymour. Expected to rebound. Will be motoring home late. Definite contender.
RP
Not beaten too far when ninth at Seymour over 6f (handicap) two weeks ago; not hard to turn elsewhere.
RSIS
Odds of 7/2 and faded to finish 9th last time at Seymour. Has the talent to rebound quickly. Possesses good finishing pace. Definite contender.
Career
17: 4-1-2
Rating · IRD
77
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
5: 0-0-1
Second-up
2: 1-0-0
Third-up
2: 1-1-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Werribee
1: 1-0-0
Track Sandown
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1411m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1412m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
13: 3-1-2
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
2: 1-0-0
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Resuming (14-weeks). Recent Ballarat jump-out win. May add some value to exotics.
ILB
Fresh after a break. Odds of $17.00 and sub-standard effort when 8th last run at Mildura. Prefer to watch.
RP
Missed the frame (beaten 7l into eighth) over 7f at Mildura (handicap) in July; suited by this C&D.
RSIS
Resuming from break. Started 16/1 and mediocre performance when 8th last start at Mildura.