Shortest win price
Mongolian Hero (3)
3.30
Welcome to Moe for the Weblease Community Champions Mdn Plate over the 1200m journey on a fine day with a good four track. Punters looking to dissect the opening yarn will find the win market led by Mongolian Hero, closely followed by Ruby Guild, Iron Eagle, and Tale Of Genji. It is an intriguing three-year-old maiden where the market has carved out an interesting early favourite, setting the scene for a competitive battle as the field prepares to jump at 1:50 pm AEDT.
Delving into the form behind those shorter prices gives us plenty to ponder for our selections. Iron Eagle, prepared by E & D Browne and drawn in barrier two under Jake Noonan, showed an encouraging debut performance at this venue over 1000m on September 24 when finishing third. That local track experience and the inside draw suggest improvement is well within reach. Meanwhile, Mongolian Hero returns from a 22-week spell for Peter Gelagotis, having had a low-key debut in stronger company at Flemington back in May, and this much easier assignment brings the runner right into calculations despite the second-up query. Ruby Guild for R D Griffiths is another fitness-derived chance, having put together a string of honest fourths and fifths, most recently running on late at Ballarat over the 1000m.
Adding a final angle to the mix, the speed map indicates Mongolian Hero will look to spear across and find the front from barrier five, while Bohemian Blitz and Satoshi share the early on-pace duties. For punters hunting value further down the win market order, Tale Of Genji brings plenty of jumpout experience to the table for trainer C W McDonald from barrier seven with Beau Mertens steering, representing a stable that is currently outperforming market expectations. It all shapes as a fascinating race to kick off the card, and we will watch with keen interest to see how the form lines unfold on the quick back-up.
Shortest win price
Mongolian Hero (3)
3.30
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Midfield
Offpace
Onpace
Firststart
Leader
Bohemian Blitz · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 22% in Last 100 Rides
Iron Eagle · Positive
Draw Suits
Well drawn inside
Mongolian Hero · Negative
Current SR
Rider’s recent POT is returning 48% lower than Career Avg.
Nickibi · Negative
Trainer Recent
Camp struggling with S/R just 6%
Career
2: 0-0-2
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Leader
First-up
1: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Kilmore
1: 0-0-1
Track Moe
1: 0-0-1
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1108m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
1: 0-0-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-1
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 22% in Last 100 Rides
Jockey Booking
Positive
Lachlan King 20% above market expected in L100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 129%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 6% POT in L100 Runners
Key Jockey
Positive
Lachlan King winning at 7% POT in last 100 rides
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Gave a good sight making the frame at Kilmore at second start. Would include in major chances.
ILB
Finished strongly when 3rd beaten by 2 3/4L last run at Kilmore. Jockey Lachlan King and trainer John Mcardle are a pair that can't be ignored. Worth strong consideration.
RP
Not beaten far when third over 5½f at Kilmore (maiden) three weeks ago.
RSIS
Picked up late ground when 3rd last run at Kilmore. Lachlan King usually performs well for the John Mcardle stable. Will not be far away.
Career
1: 0-0-1
Rating · IRD
78
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Moe
1: 0-0-1
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
1: 0-0-1
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
AAP
Encouraging debut performance this venue 24 Sep. Can improve off that run and must incliude.
ILB
Came on strongly to finish 3rd last time here and fitter for debut run. Can find a nice position from the draw. Will need to find a few more lengths.
RP
Remote third of nine on his debut (here, 5f) at 20-1 three weeks ago; entitled to have come on for that run.
RSIS
Claimed a spot in the top three when 3rd beaten by 5 3/4L last start here and was a debutant last start. Drawn nicely.
Career
1: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
85
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Flemington
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 48% lower than Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 62% in L100 rides
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Raceday Experience
Positive
Wiser for debut run
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Second campaign (22-weeks). Further matured. Had a low-key debut at Flemington 16 May. Better for the run. This much easier.
ILB
Back from a break. Didn't threaten when 11th last time at Flemington but was on debut last time. He's recently gelded and up against a less competitive field. Could feature here.
RP
Beaten on his debut at Flemington at 20-1 in May; returns from a layoff; no surprise to see him go well with that experience under his belt.
RSIS
Back after a break. Didn't threaten when 11th last start at Flemington but having second race start. Underwent a recent gelding procedure and competing at a lower grade. Could be in the mix.
Rating · IRD
77
Speed map
Firststart
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 6%
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 35%
Watch Betting
Negative
If supported, follow in
AAP
Trials (2:0-0-0). $18k purchase. Out of a sister to Listed winner Athelric. Making debut after two lead-up trials. Prefer to see on debut.
ILB
Initial race appearance 3yo by Nicconi for Ken Keys & Kasey Keys. Yet to place in multiple trials. Watch betting.
RP
Already a gelding; first start under rules for this three-year-old son of Nicconi; must be considered.
RSIS
Ken Keys & Kasey Keys 3yo by Nicconi having first start. Finished 4th in a trial at Cranbourne-trn on Sept 14th.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Firststart
Still Learning
Negative
No race experience
AAP
First starter by Harry Angel and out of the Congrats mare Spirit Of Ecstasy. Well held in both jumpouts.
ILB
Julius Sandhu trained 3yo by Harry Angel having first start. Keep your eye on the market.
RSIS
Julius Sandhu trained 3yo by Harry Angel having first race start.
Career
4: 0-0-1
Rating · IRD
80
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
2: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Mornington
1: 0-0-0
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-0-0
Track Randwick Kensington
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-1
Trainer SR
Negative
M G & M Price & Kent striking at just 10%
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 34%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Started $15 when safely held in Maiden company at Cranbourne. On pacer, perfect gate. Among the dangers.
ILB
Jumped at $15.00 and didn't find the line when 7th last run at Cranbourne. Should come to hand quickly. Will be a difficult assignment.
RP
Finished seventh but wasn't beaten too far (just over 4l) at Cranbourne over 7f (maiden) last month; not yet off the mark in four attempts although has finished third; others more likely.
RSIS
Started at 14/1 and faded to finish 7th last time at Cranbourne. Has good tactical pace and will be nicely positioned.
Career
2: 0-0-1
Rating · IRD
77
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Pakenham
1: 0-0-1
Track Bendigo
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-1
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -71% POT in their L100 Races
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 12% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 17%
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Fronting up for second campaign (20-weeks). Placed at Pakenham prior to break. Place claims.
ILB
Resuming. Made considerable ground when 3rd beaten by 3 1/2L last time at Pakenham. Interesting gear change of tongue tie on first time. Others preferred.
RP
Out of the frame (beaten 3½l in third) over 5½f at Pakenham (maiden) five months ago; layoff to overcome; probably unlikely to trouble the principals.
RSIS
Resumes after a break. Produced an eye catching run when 3rd beaten by 3 1/2L last start at Pakenham. Tongue strap go on for the first time.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Firststart
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 11% POT in L100 Runners
Market Watch
Negative
Keep eye on betting moves
AAP
Unraced 3yo by Wooded and out of the All Too Hard mare Queen Wu. Shown enough in two jumpouts. Look to market for a further guide.
ILB
Matt Laurie trained 3yo by Wooded on debut. Watch early betting.
RSIS
Career debut 3yo by Wooded for trainer Matt Laurie.
Career
5: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
89
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-0
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-0-0
Track Caulfield
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
3: 0-0-0
Trainer SR
Negative
Robbie Griffiths striking at just 8%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -35% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 27%
Improver
Positive
Poised to improve on recent form here
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Modest stats but thereabouts at times. Last at turn, ran on late at Ballarat. Fit from racing, can challenge.
ILB
Started at $10.00 and ran 4th last time at Ballarat. Looking for an improved run. Possesses good closing speed. Strong prospects in this race.
RP
Finished fourth but only beaten 2½l over 5f at Ballarat (maiden) last Friday.
RSIS
Started 9/1 and finished 4th last time at Ballarat. Likely to bounce back. Should be swooping on the field late. Serious contender.
Rating · IRD
91
Speed map
Firststart
Stable In Form
Positive
Stable going well. Out performing market by 29%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 8% POT in L100 Runners
First Starter
Positive
Not raced previously
AAP
Frankel filly heading to the races with plenty of jumpout experience. Looks suitably placed.
ILB
First race appearance 3yo by Frankel for trainer Clinton Mcdonald. Tongue tie go on for the first time. Betting as a guide.
RP
This daughter of Frankel looks the part on breeding; newcomers from this yard regularly hit the target; she's worth a go with signs of encouragement in profile.
RSIS
3yo first starter by Frankel for trainer Clinton Mcdonald. Interesting to see the tongue strap go on for the first time. Watch betting.
Career
1: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
82
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 64%
Wide Draw
Negative
Likely to get caught wide
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Disappointing debut performance at Pakenham Synthetic 2 Oct. Wiser for it. Added distance may help.
ILB
Subpar when 8th last run at Pakenham Synthetic but having second career run. Hayley Spitse provides some weight relief.
RP
Beaten 7l to finish eighth on her debut at Pakenham over 5f sporting cheekpieces at 25-1 two weeks ago; entitled to be sharper - runners from this stable can show improved form on second start; must make above-average progress to figure.
RSIS
Mediocre display when 8th last time at Pakenham Synthetic but having second career run. Large claim helps.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Onpace
AAP
Safely contained at Caulfield Heath debut at wide odds 16 Sep. Better for run. Warrants attention.
ILB
Racing on a quick back up. Jumped at $14.00 and finished 4th last start at Cranbourne.
RSIS
Backing up quickly. At 13/1 ran 4th last time at Cranbourne.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Midfield
Trainer SR
Negative
M G & M Price & Kent striking at just 12%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -35% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 25%
Wide Draw
Negative
Likely to get caught wide
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Put up a tidy debut performance at Mornington at $7. Benefits from the experience. Hope for exotics only.
ILB
Jumped at $7.00 and weakened to finish 8th last run at Mornington but was a debutant last start.
RSIS
Odds of 6/1 and looked outclassed when 8th last start at Mornington but fitter for debut run.
Career
1: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Track Moe
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 8%
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 62%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 26%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
AAP
Failed to stamp himself on the race this course debut at wide odds 24 Sep. Big lift needed from there.
ILB
Jumped at $91.00 and tailed off to finish 7th last start at this track but having second career run. Has drawn the rails. Will be a challenge.
RP
Well beaten behind the third, Iron Eagle, (over 5f here) when held on his debut at 80-1 last month; should benefit for having a run under his belt.
RSIS
Odds of 90/1 and couldn't stay in touch when 7th last start at this venue but was on debut last time. Drawn well.
Career
3: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
82
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-0
Track Sale
1: 0-0-0
Track Bairnsdale
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1112m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1243m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 6% POT in L100 Runners
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Got back and wasn't totally disgraced at Bairnsdale when second-up. Ready to win third-up.
ILB
Odds of $3.40 and overtook some late when 5th last start at Bairnsdale. Has some claims.
RP
Not beaten too far when fifth at Bairnsdale over 5f (maiden) last month.
RSIS
Started at 12/5 and pushed past some when 5th last time at Bairnsdale. Betting is the best guide.