Shortest win price
The Minstrel Boy (5)
2.40
Welcome to Moe for the Martin Cameron Mp Mdn Plate over 1600m. The track is rated a good 4 with fine weather overhead, setting up ideal conditions for this maiden contest. Looking at the win market order, punters have gravitated towards The Minstrel Boy as the early elect, followed closely by I'Mfallinforyou, Pneuma, and Kuheylan rounding out the top end of estimations. It is a fascinating puzzle where several runners are searching to break their maiden status.
The form behind those shorter prices throws up some intriguing yarns. The Minstrel Boy sits right at the top of the market after a solid runner-up performance at Pakenham Synthetic where he boxed away behind a tearaway winner, and the stable's runners are going nicely. Pneuma also holds claims from a handy barrier, having put in a reasonable effort without threatening in soft going at Geelong before looking for this rise in distance. Meanwhile, I'Mfallinforyou has plenty of race experience under the belt, though was safely held when tackling 2000m at Ballarat last time out and now drops back in trip.
Digging further down the form lines, Kuheylan maps as a leader from barrier eight for Julius Sandhu, though failed to threaten over further at Kyneton last start. On the speed front, runners like Hirarkee will look to push forward from an on-pace lane, while debutants such as Shuwaib and Amsterdam Nights add an element of the unknown to the yarn. It shapes as a tricky betting race where respect must be paid to the proven recent sectional speed of the favourites, but punters should keep an open mind as the field settles down over the mile.
Shortest win price
The Minstrel Boy (5)
2.40
Back left · leaders right
Firststart
Backmarker
Offmidfield
Midfield
Offpace
Onpace
Leader
Guthrie · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Hirarkee · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 29% in Last 100 Rides
Pneuma · Positive
Trainer Form
In form stable, out performing market expectations 55%
Shuwaib · Negative
Rider
Negative rider change today
Career
6: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
75
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Echuca
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham
1: 0-0-0
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 2000m
1: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
3: 0-0-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Needs To Imp
Negative
Finished towards the tail last start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Well back and never sighted at Cranbourne when second-up at cricket score odds. Ready to find best third-up.
ILB
At $151.00 lost ground in the run home when 9th last run at Cranbourne. Prefers to settle towards the tail. Considering others.
RP
Attempting to get off the mark at the seventh time of asking (fourth his best finish so far); was held in ninth at Cranbourne over 7f (maiden) last week; easy enough to take on.
RSIS
Started 150/1 and didn't threaten when 9th last start at Cranbourne. Likely to get back.
Career
11: 0-0-2
Rating · IRD
75
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Kilmore
1: 0-0-1
Track Mornington
2: 0-0-0
Track Sale
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1590m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
4: 0-0-2
Distance 1717m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
4: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
5: 0-0-2
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 29% in Last 100 Rides
Key Rider
Positive
Caitlin Hollowood 39% above market expected in L100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 45%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Primed
Positive
Fitter here racing on a quick back up
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Backing up quickly. Was a long way from the action in 1600m 3yo+ Mdn Plate at Bairnsdale. Needs to lift.
ILB
On a quick turnaround. Started at $71.00 and below par performance when 11th last time at Bairnsdale. This won't be easy.
RP
Yet to open his account after 11 starts; towards the rear of 13 at Bairnsdale last Monday; easy enough to take on.
RSIS
Backing up quickly. Started 70/1 and fairly underwhelming when 11th last run at Bairnsdale.
Career
2: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
74
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1247m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1125m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Trainer Form
Positive
In form stable, out performing market expectations 55%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 29% POT in L100 Runners
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Reasonable effort without seriously threatening in soft going at Geelong. Should relish the rise in distance.
ILB
Odds of $101.00 and pushed past some when 5th last run at Geelong. Others are better.
RP
Wasn't beaten that far when fifth (beaten 1½l) at Geelong over 6f (maiden) last week.
RSIS
Odds of 100/1 and was making up some late ground when 5th last time at Geelong.
Rating · IRD
82
Speed map
Firststart
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -52% POT in their L100 Races
On Debut
Positive
First race start
Winkers On
Positive
Important gear change of winkers on
AAP
Trials (3:0-0-0). Hard to get excited over this gelding's trial work but race day is where it matters. Big watch on debut.
ILB
4yo by Shamus Award having first race appearance for trainer Allan Williams & Jason Williams. Interesting to see the winkers go on for the first time. Market as guide.
RP
First race for the son of Shamus Award; already a gelding; related to 6f winner Atoyo; should be on the premises as some good aspects to his profile.
RSIS
Racing as a debutant 4yo by Shamus Award for Allan Williams & Jason Williams. Interesting gear change of cheekpieces on first time. Watch the market.
Career
2: 0-1-0
Rating · IRD
85
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Echuca
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham Synthetic
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1312m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-1-0
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 8% POT in L100 Runners
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
On pace, boxed away behind tearaway winner at Pakenham Synthetic at second start. Looking for this trip now.
ILB
Finished 2nd last time at Pakenham Synthetic and has a nice advantage with a good alley. Interesting gear change of blinkers on first time. Displays very good closing speed. Has every chance.
RP
Had a couple of these behind him when second at Pakenham over 7f (maiden) 13 days ago; should give it a bold bid.
RSIS
Finished 2nd last time at Pakenham Synthetic and can save some energy from the draw. Interesting gear change of blinkers on first time. Should get going late. Stamps its reason for consideration.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Midfield
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 7%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -32% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 37%
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 53% in L100 rides
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Wide Draw
Negative
Likely to get caught wide
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Fought bravely to the wire in the 3yo+ Mdn Plate at Sale at his second race start. Can figure.
ILB
Did well to place 3rd beaten by 1 3/4L last run at Sale.
RSIS
Flashed home late into 3rd last start at Sale.
Career
15: 0-0-3
Rating · IRD
82
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Yarra Valley
1: 0-0-1
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-1
Track Echuca
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1968m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1980m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
6: 0-0-2
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-1
Going Soft
7: 0-0-0
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 22% in Last 100 Rides
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 5%
Jockey Booking
Positive
Lachlan King 20% above market expected in L100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 232%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 41%
Dist Drop
Negative
Distance decrease from last start
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Gap In Runs
Negative
Not raced for 30 days
AAP
Safely held but not totally disgraced at Ballarat. Others with stronger claims.
ILB
Came in 7th last time at Ballarat and will be dropping in distance. Has a nice turn of foot. Should go close.
RP
Winless with run of consecutive defeats standing at 15; out of the frame when seventh 30 days ago (Ballarat) upped to 1m2f; passed over.
RSIS
Finished 7th last time at Ballarat and down in trip. Possesses very good finishing pace. Competitive type.
Career
5: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
76
Speed map
Leader
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Moe
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Track Mornington
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
3: 0-0-0
Trainer SR
Negative
Julius Sandhu striking at just 7%
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 51%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 21%
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Imprv Needed
Negative
Would need to lift here to feature
AAP
Failed to threaten at Kyneton. Coming back in distance. Can't enthuse.
ILB
Jumped at $31.00 and was well beaten when 10th last time at Kyneton. Has the necessary speed to mitigate the wide draw. Watch for a sign in the market.
RP
Still searching for first win after five tries; tenth beaten 9l over 1m1f at Kyneton (maiden) last week; hard enough to fancy.
RSIS
Odds of 30/1 and couldn't maintain the pace when 10th last time at Kyneton. Should be rolling forward early from the wide stall. Not without a chance.
Career
16: 0-3-0
Rating · IRD
80
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
4: 0-0-0
Second-up
3: 0-1-0
Third-up
3: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-1-0
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-0
Track Sale
1: 0-0-0
Track Bendigo
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2226m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
7: 0-2-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
6: 0-1-0
Jockey Booking
Negative
Stephanie Hateley current POT is 36% below Career Avg.
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 3%
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 250%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 39%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 16%
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Early pace was too much for her and weakened at Tatura over this distance. Hard to warm to here.
ILB
Ran 6th last time at Tatura. Can lift.
RP
Still winless and defeats stacking up (16 on the bounce) and has lacked consistency of late; not disgraced when sixth of 12 (Tatura) 19 days ago; easy to oppose.
RSIS
Ran 6th last run at Tatura. Could win this.
Rating · IRD
79
Speed map
Firststart
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 10%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 31%
On Debut
Positive
First race start
AAP
Newcomer by Almanzor and out of the Pivotal mare Gravitelle. Been well held in jumpouts. Look to market for a further guide.
ILB
First appearance at the races 3yo by Almanzor for trainer Trent Busuttin And Natalie Young. Keep your eye on the market.
RP
Sire can produce useful types; New Zealander bred; yard capable of preparing a newcomer to win; warrants plenty of respect.
RSIS
3yo first starter by Almanzor for Trent Busuttin And Natalie Young. Follow the money.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Backmarker
Needs To Imp
Negative
Finished towards the tail last start
AAP
Ridden back and never a factor at Geelong at second appearance. Better for those runs under her girth and open to improvement.
ILB
Below standard effort when 8th last run at Geelong.
RSIS
Disappointing outing when 8th last run at Geelong.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Midfield
Trainer SR
Negative
T & N Busuttin & Young striking at just 10%
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -57% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 32%
Wide Draw
Negative
Likely to get caught wide
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Reasonable effort without seriously threatening at Ballarat. Can improve off those runs.
ILB
Felt the pinch when 5th last run at Ballarat.
RP
Creditable effort to finish fifth, beaten just over 2l over 7f at Ballarat (maiden) last month.
RSIS
Outmatched towards the finish when 5th last time at Ballarat.
Career
2: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
72
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Sale
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1105m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 63% better than Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Positive
Valentin Le Boeuf 51% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Hot Jockey
Positive
Valentin Le Boeuf in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 51%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 17%
Well beaten LS
Negative
Not competitive last run
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Blinkers Off
Positive
Blinkers coming off this start
AAP
First-up (29-weeks). Finished down the track in both country maiden assignments last time in. Would need to have improved considerably.
ILB
Back after break of 29 weeks. Started at $71.00 and folded up in the straight when 8th last time at Sale but facing a rise in trip. Rough hope.
RP
Last of eight at Sale over 5½f (maiden) in March; returns from an absence here.
RSIS
First run back from a break of 29 weeks. Started at 70/1 and struggled with the pace when 8th last start at Sale but stepping up in trip.
Career
5: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Moe
2: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
2: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1108m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1113m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Imprv Needed
Negative
Would need to lift here to feature
AAP
Form to date uninspiring. Finished a long way from the action 4yo+ Mdn Plate at Pakenham Synthetic. First try at 1600m.
ILB
Odds of $151.00 and looked outclassed when 10th last run at Pakenham Synthetic but gets a favourable barrier. Can't recommend.
RP
Finished tenth, beaten 12l, over 7f at Pakenham (maiden) 13 days ago.
RSIS
Started 150/1 and weakened to finish 10th last start at Pakenham Synthetic but gets a favourable stall.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Offpace
Trainer SR
Negative
P & K Moody & Coleman striking at just 5%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -59% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 60%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 59% Profit on Turnover
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Mediocre performance after settling handy at Ballarat over longer test. Coming back in distance. Rates highly.
ILB
On a quick back up. Solid effort when winning by 1 1/4L last run at Avoca.
RSIS
Backing up quickly for this race. Displayed potential when winning by 1 1/4L last run at Avoca.
Career
6: 0-0-2
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Werribee
1: 0-0-0
Track Caulfield Heath
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
3: 0-0-2
Distance 1625m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
5: 0-0-2
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Jockey Booking
Negative
Luke Currie current POT is 45% below Career Avg.
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 8%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 27%
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 49% in L100 rides
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Fitness
Positive
At peak fitness backing up
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Rearward and made minor headway in the strung out finish at Pakenham Synthetic second-up. Shapes as a major player.
ILB
Backing up quickly. Started at $3.50 and finished 5th last run at Bendigo.
RP
Could not land a telling blow when fifth despite odds of 5-2 at Bendigo yesterday; held an entry at Bendigo Saturday.
RSIS
Backs up quickly. Started 5/2 and came in 5th last time at Bendigo.