Pakenham (VIC) horses tips & previews

5 Nov, 2:31 pm AEDT

One race at a time: field, form guide and win/place odds for Pakenham (VIC), with capture times on every price.

Meeting — Fri 30 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT

Meetings · Fri, 30 OctPakenham (VIC)Change

Race 1 — The Valley @ Southside Pakenham Mdn Plate 1600m · jumps Fri 30 Oct, 5:45 pm AEDT

Race preview

Welcome to Pakenham for some twilight racing on a Soft 6 track with fine weather overhead. We kick off proceedings at 5:45 pm AEDT with a 1600m Maiden Plate where the punters have zeroed in on Viking Kid to get things rolling. Looking at the early win market order, Viking Kid sits right at the top of the betting boards as the shortest runner, followed closely by Endemic, with Fine And Sunny and Via Theresa next in line as we unravel the yarn of this tricky race.

Taking a closer look at the form behind those shorter prices reveals some fascinating angles for punters to weigh up. Viking Kid, prepared by M Price & M Kent Jnr from barrier 2, comes here with the services of Blake Shinn after showing plenty of promise when grabbing a debut placing at Pakenham Synthetic over 1400m where the gelding clocked the fastest overall finishing sectionals. That effort suggests the rise in distance to 1600m should suit nicely. Meanwhile, Endemic is drawn in barrier 4 for trainers P G Moody & Katherine Coleman with Luke Nolen in the saddle, bringing consecutive third-place finishes at Ballarat over 1500m and Bendigo over 1400m which points to a promising three-year-old with scope for improvement on the home track.

Digging a bit further down the win market order and looking at the map, we find runners like Fine And Sunny and Via Theresa lining up alongside others in the offmidfield and offpace speed groups. Via Theresa jumps from barrier 3 for trainer G M Begg and rider Michael Dee, looking to bounce back from a Cranbourne run over 1400m where a better barrier and a rise in trip could spark some sharp improvement. Whether you are backing the short ones or hunting value further down, it should make for a fascinating contest to open the card.

Race notes

3yo+,MDN-SW,Maiden
SOFT6
Fine
6 runners

Shortest win price

Viking Kid (6)

1.95

Speed map

Back left · leaders right

Backmarker

3Pierrobid

Midfield

6Viking Kid
8Your It
10Endemic
11Fine And Sunny

Leader

12Via Theresa

Pierrobid · Positive
Hot J/T Combo
Combo are out performing market expectations by 80%
Viking Kid · Positive
Fast Finisher
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Your It · Negative
Rider
Negative rider change today
Endemic · Negative
Jockey Booking
Luke Nolen current POT is 41% below Career Avg.

No.RunnerBarWgtLast 5WinPlace

1CowboykickedfiveScratched5––––

Career

15: 0-0-4

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed50%
Rating40%
Closing Speed20%

Record

First-up
5: 0-0-1
Second-up
4: 0-0-0
Third-up
3: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Ballarat Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Track Kilmore
1: 0-0-1
Track Mount Gambier
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
2: 0-0-2
Distance 1700m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
8: 0-0-2
Going Heavy
3: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

7Warrnambool1700m15 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD44.2L
3Pakenham Synthetic1600m5 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · SYNTHETIC2.75L
3Bairnsdale1600m20 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD30.92L
3Kilmore1450m13 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD43.8L
7Ballarat Synthetic1200m31 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · SYNTHETIC8L
3Pakenham Synthetic1200m24 Aug 2026 · MDN-SW · SYNTHETIC1.9L
12Mount Gambier1400m22 Mar 2026 · 2UP MDN-SW · GOOD410.3L
5Warrnambool1300m9 Mar 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD42.1L

Insights

Winkers Off
Positive
Winkers coming off this start

Comments

AAP

Sent forward but flat-footed when things got serious at Warrnambool. Back onto home track but may find these a bit sharp.

ILB

Odds of $19.00 and lost ground in the run home when 7th last start at Warrnambool. Performing honestly since resuming from a break.

Not beaten too far when seventh of 12 over 1m½f at Warrnambool (maiden) two weeks ago; in decent heart at present but yet to get off the mark and losing run stands at 15; passed over.

RSIS

Started 18/1 and couldn't stay in touch when 7th last start at Warrnambool. In the top three multiple times of late.

2Marco PoloScratched10––––

Career

4: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating40%
Closing Speed60%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Newcastle
3: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1447m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1850m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0

Last starts

4Geelong1447m7 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT56L
9Newcastle1850m19 May 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · SOFT79.6L
6Newcastle1500m2 May 2026 · Maiden · GOOD44.2L
7Newcastle1500m11 Apr 2026 · Maiden · GOOD48.3L

Insights

Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early

Comments

AAP

Solid run in soft going at Geelong at $7.50. Strips fitter and rise in trip suits.

ILB

Was $7.50 and finished 4th last start at Geelong.

Finished fourth, beaten 6l, over 7f at Geelong (maiden) when dropped in distance 23 days ago; others appeal more.

RSIS

Started 13/2 and came in 4th last run at Geelong.

3PierrobidJ: Jackie Beriman·T: Dale Short659.5kg5 6 7 8 610: 0-0-0$21.00$4.60

Career

10: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating40%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
4: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Mornington
1: 0-0-0
Track Bairnsdale
1: 0-0-0
Track Sandown
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
3: 0-0-0
Going Good
7: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
2: 0-0-0

Last starts

6Mornington1500m22 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD31.72L
8Pakenham Synthetic1400m5 Oct 2026 · 4yo+ · SYNTHETIC4.77L
7Bairnsdale1200m20 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD35.47L
6Kilmore2000m18 Apr 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD47.1L
5Kilmore1607m31 Mar 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · SOFT65L
11Geelong1715m14 Mar 2026 · MDN-SW · GOOD47.9L
5Caulfield Heath1500m18 Feb 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD42.9L
7Sandown1500m21 Jan 2026 · MDN-SW · GOOD414.36L

Insights

Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 80%
Hot Trainer
Positive
Dale Short in good form, out performing market 32%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 11% POT in L100 Runners
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Limited
Negative
Hasn’t featured at all in all career runs
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Limited
Negative
Yet to break through after 10 starts

Comments

AAP

Competitive at times without placing. Only for exotics.

ILB

Racing on a quick back up. Started at $31.00 and folded up in the straight when 6th last time at Mornington. Yet to trouble the judge in all runs. Considering others.

Creditable effort to finish sixth, beaten just under 2l over 7½f at Mornington (maiden) a week ago; generally been out of sorts of late and still winless and defeats stacking up (ten on the bounce).

RSIS

Backing up quickly for this race. Was 30/1 and lost ground in the run home when 6th last run at Mornington. Hasn't fired a shot in 10 runs.

4Tempered EdgeScratched12––––

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed80%
Rating40%
Closing Speed80%

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 6% POT in L100 Runners
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Wide Draw
Negative
Likely to get caught wide

Comments

AAP

Knuckled down with purpose at Warrnambool. Hard fit, looks more a place prospect.

ILB

Jumped at $17.00 and crept into 5th last time at Warrnambool.

RSIS

Started 16/1 and made ground when closing off to finish 5th last time at Warrnambool.

5Seven SonsScratched7––––

Career

1: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating20%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

7Pakenham Synthetic1400m5 Oct 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · SYNTHETIC9.3L

Insights

Trainer SR
Negative
Greg Eurell striking at just 7%
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 68%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 27%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Unremarkable debut performance at Pakenham Synthetic at huge odds 5 Oct. Looks a work in progress and others with more to offer.

ILB

Didn't find the line when 7th last run at Pakenham Synthetic but was on debut last time. Displays good tactical speed.

Held on his debut (at Pakenham over 7f) at 100-1 25 days ago; might be better for the experience although not hard to turn elsewhere.

RSIS

Tailed off to finish 7th last time at Pakenham Synthetic but fitter for debut run. Will be pushing for a forward position early.

6Viking KidJ: Blake Shinn·T: M Price & M Kent Jnr257kg9 31: 0-0-1$1.95$1.24

Career

1: 0-0-1

Rating · IRD

100

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
Early Speed100%
Rating100%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Pakenham Synthetic
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-1
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-1

Last starts

3Pakenham Synthetic1400m5 Oct 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · SYNTHETIC3.7L
9Rosehill900m21 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)5.7L

Insights

Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Hot Jockey
Positive
Blake Shinn in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 11%
Ideal Map
Positive
Map position exceeding market by 2%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 2
Raceday Experience
Positive
Wiser for debut run
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Acquitted self well with debut placing at Pakenham Synthetic when supported 5 Oct. Extra trip may assist and Shinn sticks. Can have a major say.

ILB

Rattled home nicely into 3rd beaten by 3 3/4L last time at Pakenham Synthetic and having second race start. Can find a nice position from the draw. Clearly stands out in this field.

Finished in front of Fine And Sunny and Seven Sons (at Pakenham over 7f) at 11-5 three weeks ago; must now step up.

RSIS

Ran home into 3rd beaten by 3 3/4L last start at Pakenham Synthetic and was on debut last time. Drawn nicely. No arguments against.

7WhitebaitScratched11––––

Career

2: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey80%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed50%
Rating60%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1325m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0

Last starts

10Ballarat1500m9 Oct 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD46.38L
6Geelong1325m23 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD34.1L

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -26% POT in their L100 Races
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out

Comments

AAP

Started $11 when safely held at Ballarat at his second race start. More a minor money chance here.

ILB

Odds of $11.00 and couldn't stay in touch when 10th last start at Ballarat.

Behind Endemic over 7½f at Ballarat (maiden) when beaten 6l (tenth of 11) three weeks ago; should be thereabouts as he should benefit from that experience.

RSIS

Started at 10/1 and struggled with the pace when 10th last start at Ballarat.

8Your ItJ: Craig Newitt·T: K & K Keys557kg2 81: 0-0-0$34.00$6.50

Career

1: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
Early Speed20%
Rating40%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

8Cranbourne1400m9 Oct 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD315.06L
2Caulfield Heath1000m1 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)0.8L

Insights

Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 24%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out

Comments

AAP

Well down the track at Cranbourne on debut at healthy odds. Needs to find a few lengths.

ILB

Odds of $21.00 and was well beaten when 8th last start at Cranbourne but having second career run. Prefer a return to something a lot easier.

Came home eighth over 7f on his debut at Cranbourne (behind Via Theresa) at 20-1 three weeks ago; leading contender as his experience should be an asset.

RSIS

Odds of 20/1 and didn't threaten when 8th last time at Cranbourne but was a debutant last start.

9Ambition In BloomScratched6––––

Career

1: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey80%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
Early Speed50%
Rating40%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Kilmore
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1457m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

4Kilmore1457m13 Oct 2026 · 3UP F&M MDN-SW · GOOD43.6L
5Caulfield Heath1000m14 May 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)2.6L

Insights

Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 10% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 15%
Raceday Experience
Positive
Wiser for debut run
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Comes out of a strong maiden at Kilmore last start. Not out of this.

ILB

Jumped at $6.00 and ran on into 4th last time at Kilmore and having second career run.

Solid debut run at Kilmore at 5-1 two weeks ago; she ought to improve for experience and needs consideration.

RSIS

Started 5/1 and overtook some late when 4th last time at Kilmore and was a debutant last start.

10EndemicJ: Luke Nolen·T: P G Moody & Katherine Coleman455kg3 33: 0-0-2$3.70$1.65

Career

3: 0-0-2

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer20%
Jockey/Trainer Combo40%
Early Speed20%
Rating60%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat
2: 0-0-1
Track Bendigo
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1500m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
3: 0-0-2

Last starts

3Ballarat1500m9 Oct 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD41.02L
3Bendigo1400m20 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD32.6L

Insights

Jockey Booking
Negative
Luke Nolen current POT is 41% below Career Avg.
Trainer SR
Negative
P & K Moody & Coleman striking at just 5%
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -31% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 62%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 64% Profit on Turnover
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 44% in L100 rides
Lightly Raced
Positive
Limited race experience but shown potential

Comments

AAP

Promising 3yo with scope for improvement. Commands attention here on the home track.

ILB

Came on strongly to finish 3rd when beaten by 1L last run at Ballarat. Has not missed the money this campaign in 2 attempts. Must be considered here.

Solid effort when beaten 1l to finish third over 7½f at Ballarat (maiden) 21 days ago.

RSIS

Ran on strongly when 3rd beaten by 1L last run at Ballarat. Been in the top three each attempt of late. Looks good for a place at least.

11Fine And SunnyJ: Daniel Stackhouse·T: G M Begg155kg6 63: 0-0-0$6.00$2.50

Career

3: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating40%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat
2: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

6Pakenham Synthetic1400m5 Oct 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · SYNTHETIC5.55L
6Ballarat1200m18 Sept 2026 · 3UP F&M MDN-SW · GOOD47.92L

Insights

Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 53%
Ideal Map
Positive
Map position exceeding market by 2%
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 1
Improved L/S
Positive
Improved again last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Never a threat after showing no early speed from the barriers at Pakenham Synthetic at her second race start. Take on trust.

ILB

Odds of $61.00 and below par performance when 6th last run at Pakenham Synthetic but will be aiming for a soft run from the draw. Needs to improve.

Came home sixth, beaten 6l, over 7f here (maiden) 25 days ago - split Viking Kid and Seven Sons; should be in the mix as she should benefit from that experience.

RSIS

Started 60/1 and unimpressive effort when 6th last run at Pakenham Synthetic but has the ideal draw.

12Via TheresaJ: Michael Dee·T: G M Begg355kg8 42: 0-0-0$5.50$2.40

Career

2: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed20%
Rating40%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

4Cranbourne1400m9 Oct 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD39.85L
8Pakenham1100m9 Apr 2026 · 2YF MDN-SW · SOFT55.9L

Insights

Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Ideal Map
Positive
Map position exceeding market by 2%

Comments

AAP

Safely held but not totally disgraced at Cranbourne. Better barrier and rise in trip may help.

ILB

Odds of $10.00 and got going late when 4th last run at Cranbourne. Appears tested.

Beaten fourth of ten at Cranbourne 21 days ago upped to 7f; others appeal more.

RSIS

Odds of 9/1 and inched into 4th last time at Cranbourne.

Odds correct as at Fri 30 Oct, 5:50 pm AEDT. Odds can change.