Shortest win price
Shemesh (11)
1.30
Welcome to Pakenham for the Ladbrokes Tote Win +10% In October Mdn Plate over 1400m on a Soft 6 surface under fine skies, timed to jump at 6:15 pm AEDT. Looking at how the win market is shaping up for this maiden affair, Shemesh holds down the shortest quote to kick off proceedings, closely followed by Call Me Later, Plucky Enuff, and Galway Gal sitting next in line. Pointers suggest a fascinating battle ahead as the field prepares to tackle the 1400m trip.
Taking a closer look at the form behind those shorter prices, Shemesh brings some appealing ticks as a 300k purchase and a half to Group 2 Villiers winner Brutality. With four trials under the belt, an eye-catching recent Cranbourne jumpout, and top rider Blake Shinn sticking in the saddle, the stable runner looks ready to present a bold account. Plucky Enuff is another drawing attention from punters after going back to last and hitting the line strongly on debut over 1200m at Seymour. That effort suggests the extra trip here will assist, putting that runner right in the mix.
Further down the order, the speed map shows Celestial Ruler, Fierce Ruby, and Capital Affair aiming to dictate terms from the front as leaders, while Call Me Later looks for a midfield trail. Call Me Later caught the eye hitting the line powerfully over an unsuitable 1000m trip at Cranbourne when resuming, and now gets a quick rise in distance for the second run that could suit. It is shaping up as a tricky puzzle for punters trying to line up the debutants against those with exposed form lines.
Shortest win price
Shemesh (11)
1.30
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Midfield
Offpace
Firststart
Leader
Celestial Ruler · Negative
Trainer Career
Trainer Career S/R is 10%
Fierce Ruby · Positive
Hot J/T Combo
Combo are winning 30% POT in their L100 Races
Galway Gal · Negative
Rider
Negative rider change today
Immortal Diva · Negative
Trainer Career
Trainer Career S/R is 2%
Career
2: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
91
Speed map
Leader
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Kyneton
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1203m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 10%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -39% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 28%
Blinkers On
Positive
Trainer has opted for the Blinkers on, take note
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Safely held but not totally disgraced at Kyneton at longer odds. Home track and blinkers first time a positive. Needs to lift.
ILB
Improved late to finish 4th last time at Kyneton. Should be going forward early. Watch the betting.
RP
Was fourth of nine, beaten 8l, over 6f at Kyneton (maiden) on debut for new trainer 22 days ago; others more likely.
RSIS
Chased well when 4th last start at Kyneton. Will be positive in the run early. Watch betting.
Career
5: 0-1-0
Rating · IRD
85
Speed map
Leader
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Kyneton
1: 0-0-0
Track Wangaratta
1: 0-1-0
Track Wodonga
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-1-0
Going Synthetic
2: 0-0-0
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are winning 30% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 31% POT in L100 Runners
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Ready To Fire
Positive
Shown something in last few runs
Blinkers Off
Positive
Blinkers coming off this start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Ex Ben, Will & Jd Hayes in Victoria. Not disgraced at Kyneton at $31. Looks more a place prospect.
ILB
Started $31.00 and ran 4th last run at Kyneton. Should race on the speed. Change in trainer. Few more classier types in this race.
RP
Fair effort when beaten just under 4l, finishing fourth of nine at Kyneton over 7f (maiden) three weeks ago; five-race maiden but has managed to finish second; runs for a new trainer here; easy enough to take on.
RSIS
Started 30/1 and finished 4th last start at Kyneton. Has plenty of early pace. Change in trainer.
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Firststart
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Stable In Form
Positive
Stable going well. Out performing market by 62%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 47% POT in L100 Runners
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Debutant
Positive
First race day appearance
AAP
Trials (1:0-0-0). Out of a half-sister to Listed winner Outdo. Asked for an effort when finishing second in latest Flemington jumpout. Stable has taken their time with her and prefer to see here.
ILB
First appearance at the races 4yo by Ghaiyyath for trainer Will Ben & Jd Hayes. Betting as a guide.
RP
Trainer more than capable of getting one ready first time out; needs to be respected with signs of encouragement in profile and the stable is hot at the moment.
RSIS
Will Ben & Jd Hayes 4yo debutant by Ghaiyyath. Follow the money.
Career
19: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Bendigo
1: 0-0-0
Track Seymour
3: 0-0-0
Track Tatura
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1450m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1980m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2000m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
11: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 2%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 37%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Limited
Negative
Hasn’t featured at all in all career runs
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Had Chances
Negative
Still in maiden grade after several runs
AAP
Performance just fair at Mornington at $151. Others more persuasive.
ILB
Backing up quickly for this race. Odds of $151.00 and didn't find the line when 8th last run at Mornington and has to cope with a weight increase. Needs to improve.
RP
Will need to improve upon some moderate recent runs and winless with run of consecutive defeats standing at 19; not beaten too far when eighth of ten over 7½f at Mornington (maiden) a week ago; unlikely to achieve more than just a supporting role.
RSIS
On a quick turnaround. Odds of 150/1 and didn't threaten when 8th last time at Mornington and has to cope with a weight increase. Unplaced in all races to date.
Career
1: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
92
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Seymour
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -31% POT in their L100 Races
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Drawn Poorly
Negative
Unfavourable barrier draw
Raceday Experience
Positive
Wiser for debut run
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Went back to last and hit the line strongly on debut. Extra trip may assist. Right in the mix.
ILB
Improved when 4th last start at Seymour and was on debut last time. Has a great burst of speed late. Great chance.
RP
Solid effort first time out (6f, Seymour) at 25-1 19 days ago; hard to see her getting off the mark second time up.
RSIS
Improved when 4th last run at Seymour and having second race start. Should be swooping on the field late. Has claims.
Career
2: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
88
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Echuca
1: 0-0-0
Track Bairnsdale
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1009m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 1
Blinkers On
Positive
Trainer has opted for the Blinkers on, take note
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Patiently handled and only battled to wire at Bairnsdale at second appearance. More a minor money chance here.
ILB
Odds of $14.00 and picked up some late ground when 4th last run at Bairnsdale and has drawn the rails. Expecting to settle positively.
RP
Finished fourth, beaten 7l, over 6f at Bairnsdale (maiden) two weeks ago; is passed over.
RSIS
Was 13/1 and moved through the field into 4th last time at Bairnsdale and has a nice advantage with a good stall. Likely to be well placed early.
Rating · IRD
75
Speed map
Firststart
Trainer SR
Negative
Damien Walkley striking at just 4%
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 68%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 49%
Market Watch
Negative
Keep eye on betting moves
AAP
$15k purchase. Dam of two foals to race, both winners. Sixth and fourth in two latest jumpouts. Benefit of decent alley but one to watch at this stage.
ILB
Career debut 3yo by Kermadec for Damien Walkley. Follow the money.
RP
Related to 1m½f winner Chayse 'N' Storms; sire's progeny have shown a preference for softer goings; she isn't without hope.
RSIS
First time at the races 3yo by Kermadec for trainer Damien Walkley.
Career
1: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
92
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Trainer SR
Negative
P & K Moody & Coleman striking at just 5%
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -64% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 62%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 64% Profit on Turnover
Ideal Map
Positive
Map position exceeding market by 2%
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Raceday Experience
Positive
Wiser for debut run
AAP
Hit the line powerfully over an unsuitable trip last start. Quickly up in distance for second run and looks well placed.
ILB
Pushed past some when 5th last run at Cranbourne and having second career run. Drawn nicely. Facing a rise in trip. Not at all out of this race.
RP
Beaten on her debut at Cranbourne over 5f at 20-1 two weeks ago; needs to make above-average progress.
RSIS
Pushed past some when 5th last start at Cranbourne and was a debutant last start. Rising in trip. Has a good draw. Not at all out of this race.
Career
4: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
85
Speed map
Leader
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
4: 0-0-0
Jockey Booking
Negative
Luke Nolen current POT is 41% below Career Avg.
Trainer SR
Negative
P & K Moody & Coleman striking at just 5%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -31% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 62%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 64% Profit on Turnover
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 44% in L100 rides
Ideal Map
Positive
Map position exceeding market by 2%
Needs To Imp
Negative
Finished towards the tail last start
AAP
Ordinary performance in small field at Cranbourne when second-up. Rise in distance suits and Nolen sticks. Place best.
ILB
At $18.00 disappointing run when 6th last start at Cranbourne but rising in trip. Should jump out and bowl along. Others are better.
RP
Attempting to get off the mark at the fifth time of asking (fifth her best finish so far); close up behind Call Me Later when sixth over 5f at Cranbourne (maiden) 14 days ago; others appeal more stepping into the unknown over new trip.
RSIS
Was 17/1 and not up to scratch when 6th last run at Cranbourne but going over extra ground. Should jump out and bowl along.
Career
2: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
94
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Sandown
1: 0-0-0
Track Caulfield Heath
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Needs To Imp
Negative
Finished towards the tail last start
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Winkers Off
Positive
Winkers coming off this start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Second campaign (17-weeks). Won recent Pakenham jumpout. Sound claims fresh in this affair.
ILB
Resumes after a break. Started at $6.50 and not up to scratch when 6th last run at Sandown but matched against lesser competition. Gets some weight taken off. Can take this out.
RP
Last of six at Sandown over 6½f (handicap) in July; has had some time off; others more likely.
RSIS
Back from a break. Was 11/2 and fairly underwhelming when 6th last time at Sandown but stepping down to a lower level. Gets some weight taken off. Right in the mix.
Rating · IRD
94
Speed map
Firststart
Hot Jockey
Positive
Blake Shinn in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 11%
On Debut
Positive
First race start
AAP
Trials (4:0-0-0). $300k purchase. Half to Group 2 Villiers winner Brutality. Eye catching recent Cranbourne jumpout and B Shinn sticks. Looks hard to beat.
ILB
3yo first starter sired by The Autumn Sun for trainer Mark Walker. Watch betting.
RP
There's hope from the pedigree that she has some ability; related to 6½f winner Plenary; entitled to respect with signs of encouragement in profile - form of her yard is an obvious plus.
RSIS
3yo by The Autumn Sun first starter for Mark Walker. Watch the betting.
Rating · IRD
74
Speed map
Firststart
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 24%
Watch Betting
Negative
If supported, follow in
Blinkers On
Positive
Trainer has opted for the Blinkers on, take note
AAP
Full sister to two-time winner Purler Patch. Sixth in latest jumpout. Gets blinkers for debut and this looks a suitable trip to start career.
ILB
Soul Patch 3yo having first start for trainer Ken Keys & Kasey Keys. Watch the market moves.
RP
This daughter of Soul Patch makes debut under rules; likely to be a contender.
RSIS
Career debut 3yo by Soul Patch for Ken Keys & Kasey Keys.
Career
12: 0-0-1
Rating · IRD
82
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
4: 0-0-1
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham
1: 0-0-1
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-1
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
3: 0-0-1
Distance 1415m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
3: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
3: 0-0-0
Going Good
6: 0-0-1
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 3%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 51%
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Improved L/S
Positive
Improved again last start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Trimmed margin late at Pakenham Synthetic over this distance. Others carry more punch.
ILB
Started $31.00 and came in 6th last start at Pakenham Synthetic and rising in weight. Yet to fire this preparation. Hard to take.
RP
Not beaten that far in sixth (4l) three weeks ago.
RSIS
Odds of 30/1 and came in 6th last run at Pakenham Synthetic and will have to carry more weight. Yet to fire of late with no placings from 6 runs.