Pakenham (VIC) horses tips & previews

5 Nov, 1:59 pm AEDT

One race at a time: field, form guide and win/place odds for Pakenham (VIC), with capture times on every price.

Meeting — Fri 30 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT

Meetings · Fri, 30 OctPakenham (VIC)Change

Race 4 — Chef's Hat Mdn Plate 1200m · jumps Fri 30 Oct, 7:15 pm AEDT

Race preview

Pakenham hosts the Chef's Hat Mdn Plate over 1200m for three-year-old maidens on a Soft 6 surface under fine weather, with the action jumping at 7:15 pm AEDT. Looking at how punters are shaping the win market, Lomu holds the mantle as the shortest runner in the pack. Following closely behind in the market order are Mongolian Hero, Voltrix, and Ace Strike, setting up an intriguing battle on the quick back-up for local followers chasing a yarn and a winner.

Lomu kicks off the form stories with solid experience, bringing consistent minor placings including a game second over this track and distance previously and a recent third at Caulfield Heath. Voltrix lines up from a nice barrier with Michael Dee steering for the Ben, Will & Jd Hayes yard, boasting a fresh placing at Geelong after a barrier trial win at Seymour. Meanwhile, Ace Strike represents M Price & M Kent Jnr from barrier one with Jamie Mott taking the reins, looking to build on a fifth at Sandown where the debutant had excuses.

For punters digging deeper into the speed map and race shape, Ace Strike and Voltrix are tagged as leaders who can dictate terms early from their respective barriers, while Mongolian Hero maps off the pace and brings form from Moe where it was held up at a critical moment. With plenty of fascinating form lines intersecting here at Pakenham, selecting the right narrative might just land the spoils.

Race notes

3Y MDN-SW,3yo,Maiden
SOFT5
Fine
10 runners

Shortest win price

Lomu (4)

3.20

Speed map

Back left · leaders right

Firststart

2Berardo
7Slugger
9Whiskey Blu
10Charmingly

Backmarker

3Iron Eagle

Offmidfield

13Red Tide

Midfield

4Lomu

Offpace

15Mongolian Hero

Leader

1Ace Strike
8Voltrix

Ace Strike · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -47% POT in their L100 Races
Berardo · Positive
Key Jockey
Blake Shinn winning at 4% POT in last 100 rides
Iron Eagle · Negative
Class Rise
Racing in stronger company
Lomu · Positive
Fast Finisher
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start

No.RunnerBarWgtLast 5WinPlace

1Ace StrikeJ: Jamie Mott·T: M Price & M Kent Jnr158kg51: 0-0-0$11.00$2.80

Career

1: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed20%
Rating60%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Sandown
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

5Sandown1200m9 Sept 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · SOFT76.4L

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -47% POT in their L100 Races
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Fresh
Positive
Freshened up. Had a break of 42-60 days
Raceday Experience
Positive
Wiser for debut run
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Let-up (51-days). Had excuses on debut when in the market. Nice recent jumpout and leading hoop rides. Room to improve.

ILB

Let up. Started $5.00 and folded up in the straight when 5th last time at Sandown but was a debutant last start. Has shown early pace in races to date. Definite winning chance.

Never landed a blow on his debut when fifth of seven over this trip at Sandown at 4-1 last month; needs to make above-average progress.

RSIS

Freshened up. At 4/1 struggled with the pace when 5th last time at Sandown but having second career run. Likely to be well placed early. Has claims.

2BerardoJ: Blake Shinn·T: M W Walker1058kg1$5.50$1.90

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo60%
Early Speed50%
Rating60%
Closing Speed50%

Last starts

1Caulfield Heath800m1 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)-2

Insights

Key Jockey
Positive
Blake Shinn winning at 4% POT in last 100 rides
On Debut
Positive
First race start
Winkers On
Positive
Important gear change of winkers on

Comments

AAP

Trials (2:1-0-0). Half to two time winner Astari. Stronger showing in latest trial and there is winning form out of that. Looks capable of featuring on debut.

ILB

3yo by Hanseatic having initial appearance for trainer Mark Walker. Betting as a guide.

This son of Hanseatic makes first rules appearance; may be involved with signs of encouragement in profile - form of his yard is an obvious plus.

RSIS

Mark Walker trained 3yo by Hanseatic having first start. Follow the money.

3Iron EagleJ: Jake Noonan·T: E & D Browne758kg3 62: 0-0-1$31.00$4.60

Career

2: 0-0-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed20%
Rating40%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Moe
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-1

Last starts

6Moe1200m18 Oct 2026 · 3Y MDN · GOOD33.7L
3Moe1000m24 Sept 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · GOOD45.75L

Insights

Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Got back and wasn't totally disgraced at Moe at second start. Others with greater appeal.

ILB

Jumped at $6.50 and came in 6th last time at Moe. Likely to get back in the run. Rough chance today.

Not far behind Mongolian Hero when sixth (Moe) two weeks ago; passed over.

RSIS

Started 11/2 and finished 6th last run at Moe. Does take a while to get into stride.

4LomuJ: Brad Rawiller·T: E & D Browne658kg9 2 2 3 25: 0-3-1$3.20$1.36

Career

5: 0-3-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating60%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
2: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Caulfield Heath
1: 0-0-1
Track Mornington
1: 0-1-0
Track Pakenham
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
3: 0-2-0
Going Good
3: 0-1-1
Going Soft
2: 0-2-0

Last starts

2Seymour1200m11 Oct 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · SOFT52.25L
3Caulfield Heath1100m16 Sept 2026 · 3YC&G MDN-SW · GOOD43.15L
2Mornington1000m4 Sept 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · SOFT52L
2Pakenham1200m2 Apr 2026 · 2Y MDN-SW · GOOD40.5L
9Caulfield1200m14 Mar 2026 · 2Y SW · GOOD48.8L

Insights

Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -54% POT in their L100 Races
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Lightly Raced
Positive
Limited race experience but shown potential
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Ready To Strike
Positive
Can be rewarded for recent consistent form

Comments

AAP

Game second only other time over this track and distance. Has benefit of race experience.

ILB

Finished strongly when 2nd last run at Seymour and good career start. Has run into the placings at every start this preparation. Rates as one of the key chances.

Has arguably shown improved form the last twice; good effort when just over 2l runner-up at Seymour 19 days ago.

RSIS

Strong effort when finishing 2nd beaten by 2 1/4L last run at Seymour and solid career start. Has not missed the money recently in 3 attempts. Must be considered here.

5PercipientScratched4––––

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed50%
Rating60%
Closing Speed50%

Insights

Trainer SR
Negative
Phillip & Tommy Stokes striking at just 10%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -39% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 28%
Still Learning
Negative
No race experience

Comments

AAP

Trials (2:0-0-0). $180k purchase. Out of a stakes-winning mare and half to a Group 2 winner in the US. Second in two recent jumpouts. May need this.

ILB

3yo runner on debut by New Bay for trainer Phillip Stokes & Tommy Stokes. Keep your eye on the market.

RSIS

3yo debutant by New Bay for trainer Phillip Stokes & Tommy Stokes.

6Pocket WatchScratched5––––

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed50%
Rating60%
Closing Speed50%

Insights

Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 53%
Still Learning
Negative
No race experience

Comments

AAP

First foal to race out of an unplaced French mare. Fourth in latest Cranbourne jumpout. Place looks best.

ILB

First appearance at the races 2yo by Tagaloa for trainer Grahame Begg. Market as guide.

RSIS

Initial race appearance 2yo by Tagaloa for trainer Grahame Begg.

7SluggerJ: Logan Bates·T: M Price & M Kent Jnr1158kg–$10.00$2.75

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed50%
Rating40%
Closing Speed50%

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -25% POT in their L100 Races
Still Learning
Negative
No race experience

Comments

AAP

First foal to race out of a city winning mare. Won recent Cranbourne jumpout. Drawn deep but bears close watching.

ILB

Initial appearance 3yo by Rubick for trainer Mick Price & Michael Kent (Jnr). Follow the money.

Course debutants from this stable always command respect; already a gelding; others look more obvious on paper; a line drawn through unless betting signals are positive.

RSIS

3yo first starter sired by Rubick for Mick Price & Michael Kent (Jnr).

8VoltrixJ: Michael Dee·T: Ben, Will & Jd Hayes458kg1 21: 0-1-0$3.50$1.40

Career

1: 0-1-0

Rating · IRD

100

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating100%
Closing Speed60%

Record

First-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Geelong
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1125m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
1: 0-1-0

Last starts

2Geelong1125m23 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD30.1L
1Seymour800m11 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)-2

Insights

Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 22% lower than Career Avg.
Hot Trainer
Positive
Ben, Will & Jd Hayes in good form, out performing market 62%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 47% POT in L100 Runners
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 33% in L100 rides
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 8%
Gap In Runs
Negative
Not raced for 37 days
Raceday Experience
Positive
Wiser for debut run
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Now 5 weeks between runs. Second in recent Flemington jumpout. Right in this.

ILB

Right in contention last start at Geelong and fitter for debut run. Likely to be well placed early. Expected to be competitive.

Just denied on his debut over 5½f at Geelong showing greenness at 5-4 last month; progress needed on this second career run.

RSIS

Narrowly denied victory last run at Geelong and was a debutant last start. Should jump out and bowl along. Strong claims.

9Whiskey BluJ: Adam Mc Cabe·T: M Croston & G Gilmour558kg–$101.00$11.00

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey80%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed50%
Rating20%
Closing Speed50%

Insights

Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 4%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 26%
Still Learning
Negative
No race experience

Comments

AAP

$35k purchase. Out of a Group 3-winning mare. Second in latest Pakenham jumpout. Others profiling stronger.

ILB

M Croston, G Croston & Gilmour Croston trained 3yo by Blue Point having first race appearance. Watch the betting.

First start under rules for this son of Blue Point; respected with signs of encouragement in profile.

RSIS

Career debut 3yo by Blue Point for M Croston, G Croston & Gilmour Croston.

10CharminglyJ: Jye Mcneil·T: C J Waller856kg–$31.00$4.60

Career

1: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey80%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed50%
Rating40%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -26% POT in their L100 Races
Primed
Positive
Fitter here racing on a quick back up

Comments

AAP

$180k NZB Karaka yearling. Out of a half-sister to multiple group one winner Melody Belle. Not knocked about in two recent Flmeington jumpouts. Well bred and must be included.

ILB

First time at the races 3yo by Per Incanto for trainer Christian Frederick Waller. Betting is the best guide.

Sire's stock can be smart performers; related to Grade 3 winner Cellarmaster; trainer gets fair share of winning newcomers over this sort of trip; should not be far away.

RSIS

Christian Frederick Waller trained 3yo by Per Incanto having first race appearance.

11Gwen In RomeScratched8––––

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer20%
Jockey/Trainer Combo40%
Early Speed50%
Rating40%
Closing Speed50%

Insights

Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 41% lower than Career Avg.

Comments

AAP

$130k purchase. Out of a full sister to Listed winner Spending to Win. Kicked clear to win latest Pakenham jumpout. Looks suitably placed.

ILB

Katherine Coleman & Peter G Moody 3yo debutant by Dirty Work. Watch the market.

Related to multiple race winner El Morzillo (5f-6½f); stable is well capable of preparing youngsters to win races on limited experience; rates a likely contender.

RSIS

3yo by Dirty Work having first race start for trainer Katherine Coleman & Peter G Moody.

12Storm BellaScratched16––––

Career

1: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey80%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
Early Speed20%
Rating40%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Kilmore
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1207m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

4Kilmore1207m13 Oct 2026 · 3YF MDN-SW · GOOD45.5L

Insights

Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 10% POT in L100 Runners
Wide Draw
Negative
Likely to get caught wide
Blinkers On
Positive
Trainer has opted for the Blinkers on, take note
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Stepping out for only the second time after battling home at Kilmore at longer odds 13 Oct. Others carry more punch.

ILB

Started at $19.00 and outmatched towards the finish when 4th last start at Kilmore and was a debutant last start.

Finished fourth of ten on her debut at Kilmore at 18-1 two weeks ago; needs to make above-average progress.

RSIS

Started 18/1 and couldn't stay in touch when 4th last start at Kilmore and was on debut last time.

13Red TideJ: Jackson Radley·T: G Eurell358kg6 42: 0-0-0$19.00$3.80

Career

2: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offmidfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
Early Speed20%
Rating40%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-0-0
Track Caulfield Heath
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0

Last starts

4Cranbourne1200m16 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD34.25L
6Caulfield Heath1100m16 Sept 2026 · 3YC&G MDN-SW · GOOD44.36L

Insights

Trainer SR
Negative
Greg Eurell striking at just 7%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 27%
Ideal Map
Positive
Map position exceeding market by 2%
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Trimmed margin late at Cranbourne at second appearance. Looks a safer place proposition.

ILB

Was $14.00 and making up some late ground when 4th last time at Cranbourne. Prefer a return to something a lot easier.

Finished fourth but wasn't beaten too far (just over 4l) at Cranbourne 14 days ago.

RSIS

Was 13/1 and crept into 4th last start at Cranbourne.

14OptimusScratched3––––

Career

3: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating60%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Sandown
2: 0-0-0
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0

Last starts

6Cranbourne1200m9 Oct 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · GOOD34.4L
8Sandown1400m25 Mar 2026 · 2Y HCP · SOFT59.3L
4Sandown1300m25 Feb 2026 · 2Y HCP · SOFT53L

Insights

Key Jockey
Positive
Jett Stanley winning at 23% POT in last 100 rides

Comments

AAP

Comfortably beaten at Cranbourne for new trainer. Prefer to see.

ILB

Struggled with the pace when 6th last time at Cranbourne.

Not beaten that far on debut for new trainer at Cranbourne three weeks ago.

RSIS

Couldn't maintain the pace when 6th last run at Cranbourne.

15Mongolian HeroJ: Ben Allen·T: Peter Gelagotis258kg3 11 42: 0-0-0$7.50$2.40

Career

2: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating60%
Closing Speed60%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Flemington
1: 0-0-0
Track Moe
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0

Last starts

4Moe1200m18 Oct 2026 · 3Y MDN · GOOD32L
11Flemington1400m16 May 2026 · 2Y HCP · GOOD410.9L
3Caulfield Heath1000m23 Apr 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)3.2L

Insights

Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Held up at a critical moment at Moe. Drawn to get a soft run and can atone.

ILB

Jumped at $3.20 and ran 4th last time at Moe but can find a nice position from the draw. Expect a forward showing.

Was a shade disappointing when fourth (11-5) at Moe where just ahead of Iron Eagle 12 days ago.

RSIS

Started at 11/5 and came in 4th last start at Moe but drawn nicely. Will go close.

16EngulfScratched9––––

Career

2: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offmidfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
Early Speed100%
Rating40%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0

Last starts

5Ballarat1000m9 Oct 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD42.15L

Insights

Wide Draw
Negative
Likely to get caught wide
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Beaten but by no means disgraced at career opener. Wiser for it and rise in distance should help.

ILB

Jumped at $7.50 and showed some merit late when 5th last run at Ballarat and was on debut last time.

Finished fifth on her debut, albeit only beaten just over 2l at Ballarat over 5f at 13-2 three weeks ago; should benefit for having a run under her belt.

RSIS

Started at 13/2 and made up ground when 5th last run at Ballarat and was on debut last time.

Odds correct as at Fri 30 Oct, 7:20 pm AEDT. Odds can change.