Pakenham (VIC) horses tips & previews

5 Nov, 2:40 pm AEDT

One race at a time: field, form guide and win/place odds for Pakenham (VIC), with capture times on every price.

Meeting — Fri 30 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT

Meetings · Fri, 30 OctPakenham (VIC)Change

Race 5 — Congratulations Cosmic Crusader (Bm62) 1200m · jumps Fri 30 Oct, 7:45 pm AEDT

Race preview

Pakenham's track is running SOFT5 under fine skies for this Benchmark 62 over 1200 metres at 7:45 pm AEDT. The market leads with In A Tizzy, who won fresh at Cranbourne on a Good track last time and fronts up for his first crack at wet ground here. Befuddle sits next in the market after a strong-looking victory from the deep gate at Seymour on identical SOFT5 footing, while Efferato and Illuminance complete the top four prices. The tale here is one of recent form colliding with map position. Early speed holds a natural edge at Pakenham, and both In A Tizzy and Befuddle get to control the race from their respective barriers and speedMaps.

In A Tizzy's form line reads polished. He's a winner last start and rates 76 on the IRD, stepping off an extended spell when he toughed it out on the pace at Cranbourne. The concern is genuine — this wet surface is new to him, and his sectionals suggest he goes hard early, which could expose him if the track plays against front-runners. Befuddle, on the other hand, has form through soft ground. That Seymour win came on SOFT5 under jockey Jake Noonan for trainer J D Sadler, and his career record across twelve runs shows he thrives at the back end of a race from a long way back. He rates 79 and comes here second-up, though records show he's a maiden in that slot. Illuminance has been knocking at the door — second at Cranbourne two starts back when the winner got away from her — but her IRD rating sits at 79 as well, and she hasn't found the line since a winning drought stretches back.

Pocket Size is worth a proper look further out. He holds a hot jockey-trainer combo with Jamie Mott and Bill Papazaharoudakis that is out-performing market expectations by 57 per cent, and his map position on pace is suited to Pakenham, where runners in his lane out-perform the market by 11 per cent again. His form is workmanlike rather than flashy — four wins from nineteen career starts — but the angle tilts at a track where early positioning matters. Trak Chiller rounds out the field at barrier 12 and sits deeper, yet he carries another hot combo with jockey Jackie Beriman and trainer Michael Harrison returning 129 per cent over market. His stable is firing too, up 65 per cent in recent performance.

Race notes

3yo+,BM62,BM62 HCP,Benchmark 62
SOFT5
Fine
12 runners

Shortest win price

In A Tizzy (8)

3.20

Most career wins

Trak Chiller

6-5-3 from 37 starts

Speed map

Back left · leaders right

Offpace

3Kippis
5Bardia's Dream
6Illuminance
9Lots Of Time

Onpace

7Pocket Size

Firststart

1Efferato

Backmarker

12Smart Little Miss

Midfield

11Trak Chiller
4Cattle Camp
10Rapid Cheval

Leader

2Befuddle
8In A Tizzy

Efferato · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Befuddle · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -60% POT in their L100 Races
Kippis · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -26% POT in their L100 Races
Cattle Camp · Negative
Current SR
Rider’s recent POT is returning 41% lower than Career Avg.

No.RunnerBarWgtLast 5WinPlace

1EfferatoJ: Daniel Stackhouse·T: Ms L Tolson & Ms L Proctor361kg–$11.00$3.30

Rating · IRD

100

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed80%
Rating100%
Closing Speed50%

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Tricky Map
Negative
Runners with this map, underperform market by 8%
Long Break
Negative
Resumes from a 503 day break (> 300 days)
First Starter
Positive
Not raced previously
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Resuming (71-weeks). Ex D Eustace in Hong Kong. Third in recent Mornington jumpout. Big watch under new trainer off long lay-off.

ILB

5yo by Brutal on debut for trainer Lyn Tolson And Leonie Proctor. Market as guide.

One from three overseas; others more likely.

RSIS

Brutal 5yo on debut for Lyn Tolson And Leonie Proctor. Watch betting.

2BefuddleJ: Jake Noonan·T: J D Sadler860.5kg3 3 8 7 112: 2-1-3$3.60$1.55

Career

12: 2-1-3

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating40%
Closing Speed60%

Record

First-up
3: 1-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-0
Track Flemington
3: 0-0-1
Track Mornington
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
3: 0-0-0
Going Good
9: 1-1-2
Going Soft
3: 1-0-1

Last starts

1Seymour1200m11 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT5-0.5
7Sale1400m3 May 2026 · 2yo+ · GOOD37L
8Mornington1200m18 Apr 2026 · 3YF HCP · GOOD45L
3Sandown1200m6 Apr 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD41.3L
3Sandown1400m25 Mar 2026 · 3YF BM64 · SOFT52.9L
11Flemington1100m28 Feb 2026 · 3Y FILLIES HCP · GOOD416L
4Caulfield Heath1000m9 Feb 2026 · 3UP F&M BM66 HCP · GOOD42.4L
3Flemington1200m29 Mar 2025 · Set Weights plus Penalties · GOOD42.5L

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -60% POT in their L100 Races
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Up In Weight
Negative
Goes up 4kg weight here

Comments

AAP

Great win from the deep gate at Seymour. Leader. Soft tick, heavy query. Can show up again.

ILB

Made all when winning by a margin of 1/2L last start at Seymour but carrying more weight than last time. Facing a difficult task today.

Halted losing run scoring narrowly (Seymour) three weeks ago; makes limited appeal despite that win last time.

RSIS

Led all the way to win by 1/2L last start at Seymour but has more weight to carry. Has the necessary pace to overcome the wide draw.

3KippisJ: Jabez Johnstone·T: C Maher560.5kg2 1 5 1 76: 2-2-0$10.00$3.00

Career

6: 2-2-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo60%
Early Speed20%
Rating60%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
2: 1-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Mornington
1: 0-0-0
Track Warrnambool
1: 0-1-0
Track Cranbourne
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1100m
3: 0-2-0
Going Soft
2: 1-0-0
Going Good
4: 1-2-0

Last starts

7Mornington1200m26 Sept 2026 · 4UP MARES BM78 HCP · SOFT57.3L
1Bendigo1000m6 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT5-0.2
5Caulfield Heath800m16 July 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(7)3.5L
1Cranbourne1200m22 Jan 2026 · 3-5Y MDN-SW · GOOD3-0.2
2Warrnambool1100m31 Dec 2025 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD30.3L
4Moe1100m14 Dec 2025 · 3Y MDN-SW · GOOD41.6L
2Moe1100m16 Nov 2025 · 3Y MDN-SW · GOOD40.8L

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -26% POT in their L100 Races
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Weight Increase
Negative
Rises 8kg now

Comments

AAP

Now 4 weeks between runs. Unable to make an impression at Mornington second-up. Could give some cheek.

ILB

Odds of $14.00 and tailed off to finish 7th last time at Mornington but matched against a less competitive field. Will relish the track conditions. Must respect.

Last of seven at Mornington five weeks ago; leading contender despite defeat last time as she was successful two runs back.

RSIS

Odds of 13/1 and tailed off to finish 7th last time at Mornington but drops back to a suitable grade. Likes the cut in the ground with 1 win. Great chance.

4Cattle CampJ: Luke Nolen·T: P G Moody & Katherine Coleman760kg1 3 6 4 75: 1-0-1$12.00$3.40

Career

5: 1-0-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer20%
Jockey/Trainer Combo40%
Early Speed60%
Rating60%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
2: 1-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Kilmore
1: 0-0-0
Track Mornington
1: 0-0-0
Track Sale
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1200m
3: 0-0-1
Distance 1006m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
4: 1-0-1
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

7Cranbourne1200m16 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD32.13L
4Kilmore1100m28 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD33.66L
6Mornington1200m4 Sept 2026 · 3UP BM62 HCP · SOFT54.8L
3Caulfield Heath1200m29 Apr 2026 · 3Y BM64 · GOOD40.96L
1Sale1006m8 Apr 2026 · 3UP MDN SW · GOOD3-0.5

Insights

Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 41% lower than Career Avg.
Trainer SR
Negative
P & K Moody & Coleman striking at just 5%
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -31% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 62%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 64% Profit on Turnover
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 44% in L100 rides
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos

Comments

AAP

Ran on late from the back at Cranbourne over this trip. Unknown in wet. Lacks appeal here.

ILB

Started at $10.00 and looked flat when 7th last time at Cranbourne. Has some claims.

Solid effort at Cranbourne 14 days ago; Luke Nolen booked.

RSIS

Was 9/1 and looked flat when 7th last start at Cranbourne. Watch for a sign in the market.

5Bardia's DreamJ: Jye Mcneil·T: Simon Zahra659kg4 1 2 12 216: 3-2-1$10.00$3.00

Career

16: 3-2-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey80%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating60%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
5: 1-0-1
Second-up
3: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 2-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-1-0
Track Sandown
3: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham Synthetic
3: 1-0-0
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1200m
11: 3-1-1
Distance 1300m
3: 0-0-0
Going Good
5: 0-0-1
Going Heavy
2: 0-1-0
Going Soft
6: 2-1-0

Last starts

2Bendigo1100m4 Oct 2026 · 3UP BM66 HCP · SOFT60.35L
12Ballarat1200m18 Sept 2026 · 3UP BM62 HCP · GOOD49.08L
2Seymour1200m27 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · HEAVY80.3L
1Seymour1200m7 Aug 2026 · 3UP BM62 HCP · SOFT7-0.1
4Seymour1300m19 July 2026 · 2yo+ · HEAVY93.8L
9Pakenham Synthetic1200m6 July 2026 · 2yo+ · SYNTHETIC3.5L
9Sandown1300m4 Feb 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD47.3L
7Warrnambool1200m11 Jan 2026 · 3UP BM62 HCP · GOOD35L

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -28% POT in their L100 Races
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 24% POT in L100 Runners
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Picked up intently to just miss at Bendigo. Loves the wet. One for exotics.

ILB

Threw down a serious challenge last time at Bendigo. Betting is the best guide.

Went close when second over 5½f at Bendigo (handicap) four weeks ago; has winning C&D form to her name.

RSIS

Narrowly denied victory last run at Bendigo. Could be in the mix.

6IlluminanceJ: Michael Dee·T: Julius Sandhu959kg2 3 3 7 227: 2-11-4$9.00$2.90

Career

27: 2-11-4

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed80%
Rating40%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
5: 1-2-0
Second-up
4: 0-2-0
Third-up
4: 0-1-2
Fourth-up
4: 0-2-1
Track Pakenham
4: 1-1-0
Track CurrentTrack
4: 1-1-0
Track Sale
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1300m
11: 0-6-2
Distance 1400m
8: 0-3-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
14: 1-8-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-1-0
Going Soft
12: 1-2-3

Last starts

2Cranbourne1300m9 Oct 2026 · 3UP BM62 HCP · GOOD32L
7Bendigo1300m6 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT52.3L
3Sale1200m21 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT60.8L
3Seymour1200m7 Aug 2026 · 3UP BM62 HCP · SOFT72.4L
2Cranbourne1200m16 July 2026 · 2yo+ · HEAVY90.1L
5Cranbourne1400m21 June 2026 · BM62 · SOFT72.8L
2Cranbourne1300m10 Jan 2026 · 3UP BM62 HCP · GOOD41.3L
3Cranbourne1300m19 Dec 2025 · 3UP BM70 HCP · GOOD42.8L

Insights

Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 6%
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 27%
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Drawn Poorly
Negative
Unfavourable barrier draw
Improver
Positive
Poised to improve on recent form here
Blinkers Off
Positive
Blinkers coming off this start

Comments

AAP

Long winning drought. Made steady inroads but the winner was out of reach at Cranbourne. Place best.

ILB

Ran on when 2nd last run at Cranbourne. Performing impressively this campaign. Rough hope.

Creditable effort to finish second over 6½f at Cranbourne (handicap) three weeks ago; a previous winner here; passed over as regularly been coming up a bit short lately.

RSIS

Picked up late ground when 2nd beaten by 2L last run at Cranbourne. Showing great form since resuming from a break.

7Pocket SizeJ: Jamie Mott·T: Bill Papazaharoudakis259kg6 5 8 2 519: 4-3-1$20.00$4.20

Career

19: 4-3-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed80%
Rating40%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
5: 1-0-1
Second-up
4: 0-1-0
Third-up
3: 1-1-0
Fourth-up
2: 1-0-0
Track Pakenham
4: 1-0-0
Track Cranbourne
2: 0-1-0
Track Caulfield
2: 0-1-0
Distance 955m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
14: 4-2-1
Distance 1100m
3: 0-1-0
Going Good
14: 3-3-1
Going Soft
3: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
2: 1-0-0

Last starts

5Caulfield Heath1000m20 May 2026 · Benchmark 70 · SOFT62.9L
2Cranbourne1000m24 Apr 2026 · BM66 · GOOD42.8L
8Ballarat1000m3 Apr 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD35.1L
5Caulfield Heath1000m18 Mar 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD40.5L
6Cranbourne955m5 Dec 2025 · 3yo+ · GOOD33.3L
9Pakenham1000m17 Oct 2025 · 3UP BM66 HCP · SOFT53.7L
8Sandown1000m24 Sept 2025 · 3yo+ · GOOD45L
8Sandown1000m3 Sept 2025 · 3yo+ · GOOD35.2L

Insights

Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 57%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 11%
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

First-up (23-weeks). Resumes without a trial or jumpout. Untried in the wet. Market the best guide.

ILB

Resuming after a break. Jumped at $21.00 and didn't threaten when 5th last time at Caulfield Heath but up against a less competitive field. Needs to find a lot more.

Creditable effort to finish fifth, beaten just under 3l over 5f at Caulfield (handicap) in May; she can be competitive at this level and consistent lately; returns from a layoff; assuming she steps up from most recent effort then ought to be competitive.

RSIS

Fresh today. Started at 20/1 and couldn't stay in touch when 5th last time at Caulfield Heath but taking on a lower class of opponents.

8In A TizzyJ: Blake Shinn·T: M Price & M Kent Jnr1058.5kg5 3 2 4 15: 1-1-1$3.20$1.50

Career

5: 1-1-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
Early Speed100%
Rating40%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
2: 1-0-0
Track Hawkesbury
1: 0-0-1
Track Rosehill
2: 0-1-0
Track Cranbourne
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1400m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1200m
2: 1-0-0
Going Good
4: 1-0-1
Going Soft
1: 0-1-0

Last starts

1Cranbourne1200m9 Oct 2026 · 4UP MDN-SW · GOOD3-1.5
4Canterbury1250m22 Apr 2026 · 3yo · GOOD41.6L
2Rosehill1400m6 Apr 2026 · 3Y+MDN-SW · SOFT63.7L
3Hawkesbury1300m17 Mar 2026 · 3Y MDN · GOOD41.2L
5Rosehill1200m25 Feb 2026 · F&M MDN-SW · GOOD43.5L
3Rosehill900m12 Feb 2026 · Barrier Trial5.9L

Insights

Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Toughed it out on the pace at Cranbourne off extended spell at $1.50. Steps onto a wet track for first time. Can again play a role.

ILB

Ran home strongly to win last start at Cranbourne but stepping up to a higher level. Has the necessary speed to mitigate the wide draw. Prefer in something easier.

Won by 1½l when registering her first success at the fifth time of asking (Cranbourne) three weeks ago in a maiden; has arguably shown improved form the last twice; on the shortlist.

RSIS

Picked up late to win last start at Cranbourne but racing in stronger company. Has the pace to overcome the wide stall.

9Lots Of TimeJ: Carleen Hefel·T: E Jusufovic458.5kg12 3 1 4 98: 2-0-1$26.00$4.80

Career

8: 2-0-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer40%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed80%
Rating40%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 1-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Mornington
1: 0-0-0
Track Sale
3: 1-0-1
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1746m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
3: 1-0-1
Going Heavy
3: 1-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0

Last starts

9Sale1746m9 July 2026 · 2yo+ · HEAVY911.2L
4Cranbourne1600m21 June 2026 · BM62 · SOFT73.2L
1Sale1400m10 June 2026 · Benchmark 66 · HEAVY8-0.1
3Sale1419m17 May 2026 · 0-62 · GOOD43.2L
12Mornington1500m28 Sept 2025 · 0 - 62 · GOOD47.7L
1Bairnsdale1600m7 Sept 2025 · 3yo+ · GOOD3-0.2
5Bendigo1300m14 Aug 2025 · F&M MDN-SW · SOFT62.2L
6Bendigo1100m13 July 2025 · 2yo+ · HEAVY85.6L

Insights

Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 8%
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 36%
Tricky Map
Negative
Runners with this map, underperform market by 8%
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

First-up (16-weeks). In the minors at Sale first-up last campaign. Prefer to see fresh.

ILB

First up and ran on strongly when 3rd first up last preparation at Sale. Dropping back to a shorter trip. Will be facing a challenge.

Finished ninth, beaten 11l, at Sale over 1m½f (handicap) in July; best of her form suggests ability; must enter calculations.

RSIS

Resuming and claimed a spot in the top three when 3rd resuming last preparation at Sale. Down in trip.

10Rapid ChevalJ: Craig Newitt·T: Richard Laming158.5kg6 6 5 3 614: 2-1-2$21.00$4.40

Career

14: 2-1-2

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
Early Speed20%
Rating40%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
4: 0-1-0
Second-up
3: 0-0-1
Third-up
2: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Eagle Farm
1: 1-0-0
Track Flemington
1: 0-0-0
Track Gold Coast
3: 1-0-2
Distance 1400m
4: 1-0-0
Distance 1500m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1600m
3: 0-0-0
Going Good
10: 2-1-2
Going Soft
4: 0-0-0

Last starts

6Sandown1600m31 May 2026 · 0-66 · SOFT76.8L
3Caulfield Heath1400m14 May 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)2L
5Caulfield Heath950m30 Apr 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)6L
6Sandown1600m11 Mar 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD415.5L
6Cranbourne1600m27 Feb 2026 · 3UP BM66 HCP · GOOD42L
1Gold Coast1800m4 Oct 2025 · CL1 · GOOD4-0.2
3Gold Coast1800m20 Sept 2025 · BM70 · GOOD41.4L
3Gold Coast1800m30 Aug 2025 · BM62 · GOOD41.5L

Insights

Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 11%
Needs To Imp
Negative
Finished towards the tail last start
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Blinkers Off
Positive
Blinkers coming off this start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Resuming (21-weeks). Ex S B Laming in Victoria. Quiet jumpouts ahead of resumption Modest form in stronger company last campaign.

ILB

Resumes from a break. Odds of $8.50 and mediocre performance when 6th last start at Sandown but has a positive draw. Coming back in distance. Needs to improve.

Beaten 7l in sixth over 1m at Sandown (handicap) in May; returning from a layoff here; makes limited appeal as this could be a hot race.

RSIS

Resumes after a break. Started 15/2 and fairly underwhelming when 6th last run at Sandown but can find a nice position from the draw. Will be dropping in distance.

11Trak ChillerJ: Jackie Beriman·T: Michael Harrison1258.5kg1 3 7 6 637: 6-5-3$51.00$7.50

Career

37: 6-5-3

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed20%
Rating20%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
7: 0-1-0
Second-up
6: 0-0-1
Third-up
5: 1-2-0
Fourth-up
2: 1-0-0
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-0
Track Benalla
1: 0-1-0
Track Stawell
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
3: 0-1-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1212m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
22: 3-3-1
Going Heavy
7: 0-1-1
Going Soft
5: 3-1-1

Last starts

6Pakenham Synthetic1200m5 Oct 2026 · BM62 · SYNTHETIC3.5L
6Sale1206m13 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD44.2L
7Mornington1200m18 Apr 2026 · 3UP F&M BM70 HCP · GOOD44L
3Pakenham1200m26 Mar 2026 · 3yo+ · HEAVY90.9L
1Stony Creek1100m8 Mar 2026 · 3UP BM62 · SOFT6-0.5
1Stony Creek1100m15 Feb 2026 · BM56 · GOOD4-0.3
1Stony Creek1100m18 Jan 2026 · 0 - 56 · SOFT5-0.3
5Stony Creek1100m30 Dec 2025 · 3UP F&M BM56 HCP · GOOD43.6L

Insights

Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 129%
Stable In Form
Positive
Stable going well. Out performing market by 65%
Wide Draw
Negative
Likely to get caught wide
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Locally trained but has an adverse draw. Hard to make a case.

ILB

Started $61.00 and came in 6th last time at Pakenham Synthetic. Others much better.

Finished sixth but wasn't beaten too far (3½l) three weeks ago; a lot on her plate here and can be taken on.

RSIS

Started 60/1 and finished 6th last start at Pakenham Synthetic.

12Smart Little MissJ: Beau Mertens·T: Reece Goodwin1158kg3 4 6 2 850: 5-7-9$31.00$5.50

Career

50: 5-7-9

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed80%
Rating40%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
8: 2-1-1
Second-up
7: 2-0-4
Third-up
7: 0-3-1
Fourth-up
6: 0-1-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Track Seymour
1: 0-0-0
Track Mornington
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1100m
6: 0-0-2
Distance 1106m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
19: 2-5-1
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
24: 4-4-4
Going Heavy
6: 0-1-2

Last starts

8Pakenham Synthetic1200m5 Oct 2026 · BM62 · SYNTHETIC3.95L
2Ballarat1200m18 Sept 2026 · 3UP BM62 HCP · GOOD41.25L
6Seymour1200m10 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT57.08L
4Sale1200m21 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT62.5L
3Sandown1200m2 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT72.2L
9Sandown1000m22 July 2026 · Benchmark 70 · SOFT64.8L
8Flemington1100m17 Jan 2026 · 3UP F&M BM78 HCP · GOOD34.8L
3Flemington1100m31 Dec 2025 · 3UP BM66 · GOOD32.4L

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are under performing market expectations by -39%
Wide Draw
Negative
Likely to get caught wide
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Ready To Strike
Positive
Can be rewarded for recent consistent form
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Weight Drop
Positive
Drops 5kg from LS run

Comments

AAP

Got back, never a serious danger but not disgraced at Pakenham Synthetic. Doesn't win out of turn.

ILB

Odds of $19.00 and basic showing when 8th last run at Pakenham Synthetic. Might be ridden for luck. Prefer to watch.

Not beaten too far when eighth of ten three weeks ago; has not been firing consistently; unlikely to achieve more than just a supporting role as a few rivals look in good form.

RSIS

At 18/1 not in contention when 8th last start at Pakenham Synthetic. Likely to get back in the run.

13MykindakandyScratched14––––

Career

8: 1-0-2

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey50%
Trainer20%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating40%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
3: 1-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham
1: 0-0-1
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
3: 1-0-1
Going Good
5: 0-0-2
Going Soft
3: 1-0-0

Last starts

1Mornington1200m4 Sept 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · SOFT5-0.8
8Caulfield1400m11 Apr 2026 · CL3-SW · SOFT72.8L
5Cranbourne1600m27 Mar 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT62.6L
5Ballarat1400m20 Mar 2026 · MDN-SW · GOOD32L
3Pakenham1400m5 Mar 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD44L
3Caulfield Heath1000m25 Feb 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)0.6L
4Sandown1200m10 Dec 2025 · MDN-SW · GOOD46.3L
3Wodonga1200m28 Nov 2025 · 3Y MDN-SW · GOOD30.5L

Insights

Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start

Comments

AAP

Let-up (56-days). In the placings only prior run here. Can measure up here on resumption.

ILB

Let up. Ran home strongly to win last run at Mornington but racing against tougher rivals.

Seems to be improving based on last two runs; narrow winner of a maiden (Mornington) two months ago, getting off the mark at the eighth attempt.

RSIS

Back from a freshen up. Charged home to win last start at Mornington but matched against a stronger field.

14Bee AdmiredScratched4––––

Career

5: 1-2-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating40%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
2: 0-2-0
Second-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Kilmore
1: 0-1-0
Track Mornington
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1100m
3: 0-2-0
Distance 1200m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
3: 0-2-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
1: 1-0-0

Last starts

1Pakenham Synthetic1200m5 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · SYNTHETIC-0.5
2Kilmore1100m13 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD42.3L
5Mornington1000m5 Apr 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD33.2L
5Pakenham1100m19 Mar 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · SOFT53.85L
2Pakenham1100m26 Feb 2026 · MDN SW · GOOD41.8L

Insights

Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 41% in Last 100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 130%
Hot Jockey
Positive
Valentin Le Boeuf in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 23%
Tricky Map
Negative
Runners with this map, underperform market by 8%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Stuck tough, holding off challengers at Pakenham Synthetic second-up at $5.50. All the better, can make her presence felt again.

ILB

Ran over the top of them when winning last start at Pakenham Synthetic and honest performer putting a tidy record together. Been in the money each start this campaign.

Gained narrow success in a maiden when getting off the mark at the fifth time of asking three weeks ago; has found improvement of late.

RSIS

Romped home to win last run at Pakenham Synthetic and promising career start. Has run into the money all attempts of late and getting better in recent performances.

15Outer BanksScratched16––––

Career

5: 1-1-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offmidfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed20%
Rating40%
Closing Speed60%

Record

First-up
4: 1-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Sale
1: 0-1-0
Track Warrnambool
1: 0-0-0
Track Bendigo
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1000m
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1150m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-1-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
4: 1-1-0

Last starts

7Warrnambool1000m15 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD48.37L
2Sale1200m3 May 2026 · 2yo+ · GOOD30.2L
1Bendigo1000m27 Mar 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · GOOD4-0.3
4Randwick1150m13 Aug 2025 · 3yo · HEAVY98L
1Warwick Farm812m25 July 2025 · Barrier Trial-0.2
2Rosehill900m15 July 2025 · Barrier Trial3.2L
10Warwick Farm1200m16 Apr 2025 · Maiden · GOOD48.11L

Insights

Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -54% POT in their L100 Races
Well beaten LS
Negative
Not competitive last run
Wide Draw
Negative
Likely to get caught wide
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Never in the call at Warrnambool after lengthy absence. Has an adverse draw. Others more persuasive.

ILB

Started at $7.00 and fairly underwhelming when 7th last time at Warrnambool. Prefers to settle towards the rear.

Held when seventh of eight at Warrnambool over 5f (handicap) two weeks ago; not many miles on the clock.

RSIS

Was 6/1 and moderate showing when 7th last run at Warrnambool. Will be giving the leaders a big start.

16LightwatchScratched1––––

Career

5: 1-0-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey80%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating40%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Pakenham
2: 0-0-1
Track CurrentTrack
2: 0-0-1
Track Kyneton
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1000m
3: 0-0-1
Distance 1103m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
3: 0-0-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 1-0-0

Last starts

1Kyneton1103m8 Oct 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · SOFT5-1
11Wangaratta1000m31 July 2026 · MDN-SW · HEAVY97.6L
5Pakenham1200m12 Feb 2026 · 3-5YY MDN-SW · GOOD44.4L
3Pakenham1000m29 Jan 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD40.9L
6Sandown1000m8 Jan 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · GOOD41.2L

Insights

Trainer SR
Negative
Brian McGrath striking at just 9%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 20%
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Won nicely at the finish after settling midfield at Kyneton second-up. Just out of his maiden and facing tougher challenge here.

ILB

Rounded them up to win last time at Kyneton and drawn the rails. Competing in a higher grade.

Appears to be on the upgrade judged on two most recent runs; gained a first success at the fifth time of asking when in front by 1l 22 days ago at Kyneton in a maiden.

RSIS

Picked up nicely to win last time at Kyneton and will appreciate a good stall. Testing ability against stronger contenders.

Odds correct as at Fri 30 Oct, 7:50 pm AEDT. Odds can change.