Pakenham (VIC) horses tips & previews

5 Nov, 1:59 pm AEDT

One race at a time: field, form guide and win/place odds for Pakenham (VIC), with capture times on every price.

Meeting — Fri 30 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT

Meetings · Fri, 30 OctPakenham (VIC)Change

Race 3 — Mittys Mdn Plate 1000m · jumps Fri 30 Oct, 6:45 pm AEDT

Race preview

Welcome to Pakenham under fine skies for a dash over the 1000m on a soft 6 track for the Mittys Mdn Plate. Punters sizing up the win market have made Celestial Blue the early elect, closely followed by Frandema, Chantess, and Wyandra holding down the next lines in the betting order. It is a fascinating maiden puzzle featuring plenty of unraced talent alongside a few seasoned battlers trying to break their duck.

Taking a look at the form for the market leaders, Celestial Blue returns for a second campaign after showing plenty of promise when resuming with a close second at Geelong over 1125m on a heavy track. Lachlan Neindorf takes the mount for Phillip and Tommy Stokes from barrier four, and the youngster tuned up with a sharp jumpout third here at Pakenham. Wyandra comes in battle-tested with eleven starts under the belt for P G Moody and Katherine Coleman, bringing a last-start fighting second at Hamilton over 1100m on soft ground where Luke Nolen's mount just missed after looking the winner.

For those hunting through the debutants and other angles, Chantess brings a handy pedigree as a half-sister to Listed winner Ndola, backed by a strong stable in form with Michael Dee booked from barrier three following an encouraging Pakenham jumpout win. Meanwhile, Frandema steps out for Peter Gelagotis with Blake Shinn steering after commanding a hefty price tag as an 825k purchase out of an unraced French mare, having put together two smart jumpouts ahead of this race debut.

Race notes

3yo+,MDN-SW,Maiden
SOFT6
Fine
11 runners

Shortest win price

Celestial Blue (8)

3.40

Speed map

Back left · leaders right

Backmarker

1Capital Charlie

Offmidfield

5Zwasp

Firststart

3Shipping Steel
6Frandema
7Hill Of Olives
9Celestial Magnate
10Chantess
12Jewel City

Onpace

2Powershare

Leader

4Wyandra
8Celestial Blue

Capital Charlie · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Powershare · Positive
Rider SR
Jockey recent POT is 41% better than Career Avg.
Shipping Steel · Positive
Hot J/T Combo
Combo are winning 30% POT in their L100 Races
Wyandra · Negative
Trainer Recent
Camp struggling with S/R just 5%

No.RunnerBarWgtLast 5WinPlace

1Capital CharlieJ: Craig Newitt·T: D Meagher1159.5kg51: 0-0-0$17.00$3.70

Career

1: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed20%
Rating60%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

5Cranbourne1000m16 Oct 2026 · 4yo+ · GOOD34.96L

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Wide Draw
Negative
Likely to get caught wide
Raceday Experience
Positive
Wiser for debut run

Comments

AAP

Stepping out for only the second time after battling home at Cranbourne as a market drifter 16 Oct. Worth some thought here.

ILB

Started $5.00 and hit the line well when 5th last start at Cranbourne and having second career run. Will be motoring home late. Watch for a sign in the market.

Respectable debut effort (beaten 5l) at Cranbourne over this distance at 4-1 14 days ago; will need to progress to get off the mark.

RSIS

Was 4/1 and showed some merit late when 5th last start at Cranbourne and fitter for debut run. Displays very good closing pace. Could feature here.

2PowershareJ: Valentin Le Boeuf·T: R J Stephens1059.5kg4 8 4 5 1023: 0-1-1$126.00$13.00

Career

23: 0-1-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating20%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
5: 0-0-0
Second-up
3: 0-0-0
Third-up
3: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-1
Track CurrentTrack
2: 0-0-0
Track Warrnambool
1: 0-0-0
Track Cranbourne
5: 0-0-1
Distance 1014m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
3: 0-1-0
Distance 1106m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
6: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
3: 0-0-0
Going Soft
8: 0-0-1

Last starts

10Pakenham Synthetic1200m5 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · SYNTHETIC11.85L
5Pakenham1200m18 Oct 2024 · Maiden · HEAVY812.5L
4Cranbourne1200m2 Oct 2024 · Maiden · GOOD42.25L
8Cranbourne1000m19 Sept 2024 · Maiden · GOOD43.46L
4Pakenham Synthetic1000m25 Aug 2024 · Maiden · SYNTHETIC4.25L
5Moe1217m18 Aug 2024 · Maiden · SOFT64.85L
4Cranbourne1000m1 Aug 2024 · Maiden · SOFT74.55L
4Pakenham Synthetic1000m18 July 2024 · Maiden · SYNTHETIC6.75L

Insights

Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 41% better than Career Avg.
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 5%
Jockey Booking
Positive
Valentin Le Boeuf 23% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 27%
Hot Jockey
Positive
Valentin Le Boeuf in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 23%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Well beaten LS
Negative
Not competitive last run

Comments

AAP

Settled back and always among the cab-catchers at Pakenham Synthetic off long spell. Low percentage horse.

ILB

Jumped at $151.00 and looked outclassed when 10th last time at Pakenham Synthetic. Has the necessary speed to mitigate the wide draw. Yet to break through after 23 runs. Can't have.

Still winless and defeats stacking up (23 on the bounce); finished last of ten here over 6f (maiden) three weeks ago; others have more pressing claims.

RSIS

Started at 150/1 and looked outclassed when 10th last start at Pakenham Synthetic. Has the necessary pace to mitistall the wide draw. Still in maiden grade after 23 runs.

3Shipping SteelJ: Adam Mc Cabe·T: Michael Trotter259.5kg–$81.00$8.50

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey80%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed50%
Rating40%
Closing Speed50%

Insights

Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are winning 30% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 31% POT in L100 Runners
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Still Learning
Negative
No race experience

Comments

AAP

First foal to race out of a five-time placed mare. Second in latest Crnabourne jumpout. Prefer to see what he does here.

ILB

Squamosa 4yo on debut for Michael Trotter and gets a favourable draw. Betting as a guide.

This son of Squamosa is having his first start under rules; leading claims as some good aspects to his profile.

RSIS

4yo by Squamosa having first start for Michael Trotter and will try to take advantage of the stall.

4WyandraJ: Luke Nolen·T: P G Moody & Katherine Coleman659.5kg2 3 2 9 211: 0-7-1$8.50$2.50

Career

11: 0-7-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer20%
Jockey/Trainer Combo40%
Early Speed100%
Rating60%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
3: 0-2-0
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Third-up
1: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Pakenham
3: 0-1-1
Track CurrentTrack
3: 0-1-1
Track Sale
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1100m
2: 0-2-0
Distance 1200m
7: 0-4-1
Distance 1400m
2: 0-1-0
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
3: 0-3-0
Going Good
6: 0-4-1

Last starts

2Hamilton1100m10 Oct 2026 · 4yo+ · SOFT50.2L
9Moe1200m28 May 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · HEAVY1016.5L
2Werribee1100m14 May 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · GOOD41.3L
3Pakenham1200m1 May 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · GOOD43.5L
2Pakenham1200m2 Apr 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · GOOD40.4L
2Cranbourne1200m20 Mar 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · GOOD33.5L
7Caulfield Heath1200m4 Mar 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · GOOD45.4L
4Pakenham1400m7 Nov 2025 · 3Y MDN-SW · HEAVY89L

Insights

Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 5%
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -31% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 62%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 64% Profit on Turnover
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 8%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Looked likely but had a real fight on his hands and just missed at Hamilton. Will be fitter second-up. Fits well against this opposition.

ILB

Close up last start at Hamilton. Should come to hand quickly. Should go very close.

A narrow runner-up at 5-4 over 5½f at Hamilton (maiden) 20 days ago; appears to be on the upgrade judged on two most recent runs but yet to get off the mark and losing run stands at 11; Luke Nolen a notable booking.

RSIS

Threw down a serious challenge last start at Hamilton. Has early pace and positions nicely. Competitive type.

5ZwaspJ: Joe Bowditch·T: Shea Eden559.5kg8 8 5 9 724: 0-2-3$71.00$7.50

Career

24: 0-2-3

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offmidfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
Early Speed20%
Rating40%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
5: 0-1-0
Second-up
4: 0-0-1
Third-up
4: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
3: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham
3: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
3: 0-0-0
Track Sale
6: 0-1-1
Distance 1000m
5: 0-0-1
Distance 1008m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1106m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
11: 0-1-3
Going Heavy
5: 0-0-0
Going Soft
8: 0-1-0

Last starts

7Bairnsdale1000m12 Oct 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · SOFT74.3L
9Sale1206m13 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD42.6L
5Moe1108m8 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · HEAVY86.6L
8Cranbourne1300m16 July 2026 · 2yo+ · HEAVY97.7L
8Moe1217m3 July 2026 · 2yo+ · HEAVY1011.7L
6Moe1008m18 June 2026 · MDN-SW · HEAVY910.1L
7Pakenham1400m7 Nov 2025 · 4UP MDN-SW · HEAVY88.7L
9Warrnambool1300m16 Oct 2025 · 3yo+ · SOFT58L

Insights

Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Winkers Off
Positive
Winkers coming off this start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Had all before him at turn and went home tamely at Bairnsdale over this distance. Hard to warm to here.

ILB

Odds of $12.00 and looked flat when 7th last start at Bairnsdale. Hasn't broken through maiden grade after 24 runs. Struggling this preparation with no placings from 6 attempts. Most likely not today.

Generally struggled of late and yet to get off the mark and losing run stands at 24; finished seventh but wasn't beaten too far (just over 4l, Bairnsdale, dropped to this distance) two weeks ago; others appeal more.

RSIS

At 11/1 not competitive when 7th last time at Bairnsdale. Yet to break maiden status after 24 runs. Has struggled so far recently. Likely to get back.

6FrandemaJ: Blake Shinn·T: Peter Gelagotis957.5kg–$4.40$1.60

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
Early Speed50%
Rating60%
Closing Speed50%

Insights

On Debut
Positive
First race start

Comments

AAP

$825k purchase. Out of an unraced French mare. Late bloomer heading to the races for the first time after two smart jumpouts. Can make an immediate impact here.

ILB

Peter Gelagotis trained 4yo debutant by Frankel. Watch early betting.

This daughter of Frankel is having her first start under rules; might be one for another day; market may guide as this doesn't look straightforward against rivals with experience.

RSIS

4yo by Frankel on debut for Peter Gelagotis. Follow the money.

7Hill Of OlivesJ: Jake Noonan·T: J D Sadler857.5kg–$51.00$6.50

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed50%
Rating40%
Closing Speed50%

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -60% POT in their L100 Races
Market Watch
Negative
Keep eye on betting moves
Winkers On
Positive
Important gear change of winkers on

Comments

AAP

Half to city winner Abovethefrostline. Fourth in latest Pakenham jumpout. Market watch advised.

ILB

4yo first starter by Cool Aza Beel for trainer John Sadler. Follow the money.

First start under rules for this four-year-old daughter of Cool Aza Beel; whether she'll be sufficiently clued up remains to be seen so a watching brief the best policy.

RSIS

First appearance at the races 4yo by Cool Aza Beel for John Sadler.

8Celestial BlueJ: Lachlan Neindorf·T: Phillip & Tommy Stokes457kg22: 0-1-0$3.40$1.40

Career

2: 0-1-0

Rating · IRD

100

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating100%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
2: 0-1-0
Track Geelong
1: 0-1-0
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1125m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-1-0

Last starts

2Geelong1125m19 June 2026 · 2Y MDN-SW · HEAVY90.1L

Insights

Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 10%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -39% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 28%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Returns for second campaign (19-weeks). Third behind a smart one in latest Pakenham jumpout. Better for that and can measure up in second racing campaign.

ILB

Resuming after a break. Just short of the win last time at Geelong and was a debutant last start. Has shown early pace in races to date. Winning chance.

Beaten narrowly at the first time of asking over 5½f at Geelong at 6-1 in June; back from an absence here; must now step up.

RSIS

First run back from a break. Threw down a serious challenge last start at Geelong and was on debut last time. Should jump out and bowl along. Strong chance today.

9Celestial MagnateJ: Jason Maskiell·T: J D Sadler757kg–$8.00$2.45

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed50%
Rating40%
Closing Speed50%

Insights

Jockey Booking
Negative
Jason Maskiell current POT is 49% below Career Avg.
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 64% in L100 rides
Market Watch
Negative
Keep eye on betting moves

Comments

AAP

$16k purchase. Out of a half-sister to Listed winner Blondie. Distant second in latest Pakenham jumpout. Could surprise on debut.

ILB

Finance Tycoon 3yo trained by John Sadler having first race start. Respect the betting.

This son of Finance Tycoon makes debut under rules; should not be ruled out.

RSIS

Initial appearance 3yo by Finance Tycoon for trainer John Sadler.

10ChantessJ: Michael Dee·T: Ben, Will & Jd Hayes355kg–$4.60$1.70

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed50%
Rating60%
Closing Speed50%

Insights

Stable In Form
Positive
Stable going well. Out performing market by 62%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 47% POT in L100 Runners
First Starter
Positive
Not raced previously

Comments

AAP

Trials (1:0-0-0). $200k purchase. Half to Listed winner and stablemate Ndola. Looked smart winning latest Pakenham jumpout. Gets a soft draw and warrants attention on debut.

ILB

3yo by Shamus Award on debut for trainer Will Ben & Jd Hayes. Watch betting.

Her trainer gets plenty of first-time-out winners over this distance; related to Hearcomesthestar, winning form over 5f-7f; deserves respect with signs of encouragement in profile and the hot form of the yard is a bonus.

RSIS

Shamus Award 3yo having first race appearance for trainer Will Ben & Jd Hayes. Watch for a sign in the market.

11Diamond HeistScratched12––––

Career

1: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
Early Speed20%
Rating50%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

6Ballarat1000m9 Oct 2026 · 3YF MDN-SW · GOOD43.41L

Insights

Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 7%
Raceday Experience
Positive
Wiser for debut run
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Didn't have the smoothest of runs at Ballarat on debut. Certainly open to improvement off that performance.

ILB

Started at $4.20 and finished 6th last run at Ballarat but having second race start.

Creditable debut, finishing sixth, beaten 3½l (at Ballarat over this distance) at 100-30 three weeks ago; might be better for the experience although not hard to turn elsewhere.

RSIS

Started at 10/3 and ran 6th last time at Ballarat but having second career run.

12Jewel CityJ: Daniel Stackhouse·T: G Eurell155kg–$7.50$2.40

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed50%
Rating40%
Closing Speed50%

Insights

Trainer SR
Negative
Greg Eurell striking at just 7%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -54% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 27%
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Still Learning
Negative
No race experience

Comments

AAP

Half to Stakes performed Prowling. Moved nicely finishing second in latest Cranbourne jumpout and gets a soft draw. Comes into calculations.

ILB

First race appearance 3yo by Ilovethiscity for trainer Greg Eurell and has the ideal alley. Keep your eye on the market.

Related to Great Duchess, winning form over 5½f-1m; trainer has a good record with first-time-out runners here; should give it a bold bid.

RSIS

Greg Eurell trained 3yo by Ilovethiscity having first start and drawn beautifully.

Odds correct as at Fri 30 Oct, 6:50 pm AEDT. Odds can change.