Shortest win price
Lazzura (1)
1.34
Welcome to Rosehill for the Toyota Forklifts Hot Danish Stakes, a sharp Group 2 test over 1400m where a handy field of fillies and mares will battle it out on a Good 4 surface under fine skies at 4:10 pm AEDT. Looking at the early win market order, punters have zeroed in on Lazzura sitting at the head of affairs, followed closely by Gerringong, Arabian Rose, Tuileries, and Surf's Up, with Modella, Dark Glitter, and Firestorm rounding out the quotes for this fascinating tactical yarn.
The market leader Lazzura brings compelling form to the track for trainer C J Waller, jumping from barrier 2 with Tommy Berry in the saddle. This Group 1-winning mare is chasing a hat-trick after taking out the Golden Pendant here at Rosehill two starts back and then showing plenty of grit to claim The Invitation over today's 1400m trip from a deep draw. Another key player near the top of betting is Gerringong from barrier 8 for Chris & Corey Munce, with Nash Rawiller booked. This consistent mare scored a 1200m Open win at Rosehill two runs ago and was not beaten far when finishing soundly off the speed at Randwick last time out, suggesting she is ready to strip fitter.
Further down the line, runners like Surf's Up from barrier 1 with Jason Collett and Arabian Rose from barrier 6 with Ben E Thompson add plenty of depth to the puzzle. The speed map points to a genuine early contest with Lazzura, Tuileries, and Gerringong listed as leaders, while Arabian Rose and Surf's Up track up on the pace. While Lazzura commands the utmost respect on her recent sequence, the race holds plenty of intrigue as the fitter mares underneath look to test her resolve over the final furlong.
Shortest win price
Lazzura (1)
1.34
Most career wins
Lazzura
8-3-3 from 20 starts
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Midfield
Offpace
Onpace
Leader
Lazzura · Positive
Rider SR
Jockey recent POT is 19% better than Career Avg.
Tuileries · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -82% POT in their L100 Races
Gerringong · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Arabian Rose · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 18% in Last 100 Rides
Career
20: 8-3-3
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Leader
First-up
6: 2-1-2
Second-up
5: 3-0-1
Third-up
5: 2-1-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-1-0
Track Randwick
9: 2-1-2
Track Caulfield
1: 0-0-0
Track Flemington
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1200m
5: 2-0-2
Distance 1300m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
17: 6-2-3
Going Heavy
2: 1-1-0
Going Soft
1: 1-0-0
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 19% better than Career Avg.
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 9% POT in L100 Runners
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Consecutive Wins
Positive
Has strung together a few races in a row
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 2
Track Stats
Positive
Excels at this track
In Form
Positive
Racing in top form recently
AAP
Grp 1 winning mare on target for hat-trick. Won the Golden Pendant at Rosehill two back 26 Sep. Had to call on all her resolve to win the Invitation from the deep draw over today's trip. Looks hard to beat again.
ILB
Dashed home to win last time at Randwick and solid performer at this distance in the past. On a winning streak the last 2 runs and gets a favourable alley. Expect support.
RP
Goes for a hat-trick today and three wins from six runs here; had five of these in arrears last month at Randwick, getting the job done in the The Invitation by half a length; should be on the premises.
RSIS
Finished with purpose when winning last time at Randwick and ideal trip as proven previously. Won last 2 on the bounce and has a positive draw. Good chance against these.
Career
17: 5-1-1
Rating · IRD
79
Speed map
Leader
First-up
5: 1-0-0
Second-up
4: 2-0-0
Third-up
3: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Gold Coast
1: 0-0-0
Track Rosehill
4: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
4: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1250m
1: 1-0-0
Going Soft
4: 1-0-0
Going Good
12: 4-1-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -82% POT in their L100 Races
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Form At Track
Negative
Yet to win here
AAP
Got back and wasn't totally disgraced at Randwick second-up. Stripping fitter, capable of making an impact with right tempo.
ILB
Odds of $10.00 and ran 8th last time at Randwick. Should jump out and bowl along. Can surprise at a nice price.
RP
Career wins-runs record of 5-17; was eighth of 12 in the The Invitation at Randwick 14 days ago, just under 4l behind Lazzura.
RSIS
Odds of 9/1 and finished 8th last start at Randwick. Should muster plenty of early toe.
Career
18: 3-5-2
Rating · IRD
87
Speed map
Leader
First-up
5: 2-2-0
Second-up
4: 0-1-1
Third-up
2: 0-0-1
Track Canterbury
2: 2-0-0
Track Randwick
5: 0-1-0
Track Caulfield
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
4: 2-1-0
Distance 1200m
5: 1-1-1
Distance 1300m
2: 0-1-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-1-0
Going Soft
8: 1-2-1
Going Good
9: 2-2-1
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 13% POT in L100 Runners
Awkward Draw
Negative
Would have liked a better draw
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Form At Track
Positive
1 time winner here at Rosehill
AAP
Consistent and classy mare. Won a 1200m Open at Rosehill two back. Off the speed, picked up soundly and wasn't beaten far at Randwick second-up. Fitter.
ILB
Started $4.80 and kept chasing when 4th last time at Randwick. Should race on the speed. Tough competitor.
RP
Has won here before; wins achieved at a lower level; 2l fourth to Lazzura (Randwick) two weeks ago; meeting some horses in good form and is passed over.
RSIS
At 4/1 made up ground when 4th last time at Randwick. Shows good early pace. Strong competitor.
Career
16: 6-2-2
Rating · IRD
80
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
5: 3-1-0
Second-up
3: 1-0-0
Third-up
2: 1-0-1
Track Doomben
1: 1-0-0
Track Pakenham
1: 0-0-0
Track Rosehill
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
7: 4-1-0
Distance 1350m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
8: 3-1-2
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
6: 3-1-0
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 18% in Last 100 Rides
Trainer Form
Positive
In form stable, out performing market expectations 36%
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
AAP
Great effort in the The Nivison Rosehill two back. Went home tamely at Randwick second-up at $20. Gets through rain affected ground. Can hit back here.
ILB
At $20.00 faded away to finish 10th last run at Randwick. Place claims at best.
RP
Well beaten in the The Invitation at Randwick 14 days ago; a proven winner with a career wins-runs record of 6-17; could be involved based on the pick of her form.
RSIS
Odds of 19/1 and didn't threaten when 10th last time at Randwick.
Career
16: 4-2-2
Rating · IRD
76
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
4: 1-1-1
Second-up
3: 1-0-1
Third-up
3: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Rosehill
7: 2-0-2
Track CurrentTrack
7: 2-0-2
Track Warwick Farm
2: 0-2-0
Distance 1350m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1400m
7: 2-0-1
Distance 1500m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
9: 4-0-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
6: 0-2-1
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Awkward Draw
Negative
May find this draw awkward
Track And Dist
Positive
Excels at this track and trip
AAP
Mona Lisa Stakes winner Wyong 4 Sep. Raced in back half and failed to issue a serious challenge in the Invitation. Home track advantage but has a tricky draw. Each way.
ILB
At $41.00 folded up in the straight when 9th last start at Randwick. Going well this campaign. Won't find this easy.
RP
Possesses winning form at this track; wins have come at a lower level; 40-1 chance in the The Invitation when finishing ninth of 12 at Randwick last month; others more appealing as meeting a number of horses who are in good form.
RSIS
At 40/1 faded away to finish 9th last run at Randwick. Racing consistently recently.
Career
35: 5-1-5
Rating · IRD
74
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
7: 4-0-1
Second-up
6: 1-1-0
Third-up
6: 0-0-2
Fourth-up
4: 0-0-0
Track Pukekohe
1: 0-0-0
Track Riccarton Park
1: 0-0-0
Track Doomben
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
4: 1-0-1
Distance 1500m
4: 1-1-1
Going Soft
12: 2-0-3
Going Good
20: 3-1-2
Going Heavy
3: 0-0-0
Jockey Booking
Negative
Tim Clark current POT is 19% below Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 43%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 9% POT in L100 Runners
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 32% in L100 rides
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Needs To Imp
Negative
Finished towards the tail last start
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
AAP
Winless since 22 Feb 2025. Ridden cold and never in the picture at Randwick over this trip. Usually gets back. Has plenty to find on latest offerings. On trust.
ILB
Started at $101.00 and below par performance when 12th last time at Randwick. Does take a while to get into stride. Prefer to watch.
RP
Out of the money and beaten 7l in the The Invitation at Randwick when behind Lazzura two weeks ago; knows how to win here with three course wins; meeting some horses in good form and may be vulnerable.
RSIS
At 100/1 below par when 12th last run at Randwick. Will be giving the leaders a big start.
Career
50: 6-6-5
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
3: 1-1-0
Second-up
2: 0-1-1
Third-up
2: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
2: 1-0-0
Track Canberra
1: 1-0-0
Track Nowra
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
15: 1-2-2
Distance 1000m
3: 2-1-0
Distance 1250m
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1300m
8: 1-1-2
Going Good
23: 2-4-2
Going Heavy
6: 1-0-0
Going Soft
21: 3-2-3
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 170%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 27% Profit on Turnover
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Fresh
Positive
Freshened up. Had a break of 42-60 days
AAP
Let-up (42-days). Finished it off only fairly this track over today's trip at wide odds. Pace against last few. Keep safe.
ILB
Let up. Jumped at $61.00 and couldn't maintain the pace when 6th last start at the track. Looks highly doubtful.
RP
Was behind Lazzura here 42 days ago in a Group 2 when beaten just over 3l in sixth; has struggled to factor since winning a handicap at Rosehill in July and wins have come at a lower level; passed over given the strong opposition here.
RSIS
Back from a freshen up. Started 60/1 and couldn't stay in touch when 6th last time around here.
Career
7: 4-1-1
Rating · IRD
81
Speed map
Leader
First-up
3: 2-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Eagle Farm
1: 0-0-0
Track Flemington
1: 0-0-1
Track Scone
3: 2-1-0
Distance 1100m
2: 1-1-0
Distance 1200m
5: 3-0-1
Going Good
4: 2-1-0
Going Soft
3: 2-0-1
Form Trainer
Positive
In form stable, out performing market expectation by 12%
AAP
Responded well from back half to get the prize at Randwick off spell. First try at 1400m. Capable of figuring again.
ILB
Reeled them in to win last time at Randwick but facing formidable rivals. Zac Lloyd and Leah Gavranich & Paul Messara work well together. Should muster plenty of early toe.
RP
Got the job done in the The Kosciuszko by a short head at Randwick last month; stable going well a plus; she's a serious player despite being up in class.
RSIS
Ran on strongly to win last time at Randwick but competing in a more challenging grade. Should muster plenty of early pace.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Leader
AAP
Third run now in new stable/region. In stellar form. Gave solid kick from handy position to triumph at Doomben. Harder now but in winning form and can give some cheek at odds.
ILB
Displayed a good turn of foot when winning last start at Doomben but matched against a stronger field. Unbeaten this preparation with 3 wins from 3 runs.
RSIS
Flew home to win last start at Doomben but challenged by more formidable competitors. Hasn't put a foot wrong lately with 3 wins from 3 runs.
Career
13: 3-5-2
Rating · IRD
74
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
4: 0-2-0
Second-up
3: 1-2-0
Third-up
2: 0-1-1
Fourth-up
2: 1-0-0
Track Flemington
1: 0-0-0
Track Rosehill
2: 2-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
2: 2-0-0
Distance 1100m
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1150m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
6: 1-4-0
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-2
Going Soft
6: 2-2-0
Going Good
5: 1-3-0
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 9% POT in L100 Runners
Ideal Map
Positive
Map position exceeding market by 1%
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Track Stats
Positive
Excels at this track
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Courageous effort in the 3yo+ (Bm88) at Randwick second-up. Up in class but sharper now.
ILB
Ran home into 2nd beaten by 1 3/4L last start at Randwick and strong performer at this trip. Should be going forward early. Can save some energy from the alley. This is a tough race.
RP
Was on the premises (second, beaten 1½l) in a handicap at Randwick three weeks ago; unbeaten over this C&D after two runs but yet to win a race of this value; facing a tougher assignment than last time, easy to oppose.
RSIS
Good performance to run into 2nd beaten by 1 3/4L last run at Randwick and strong form at the distance. Has early pace and positions nicely.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Leader
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 46% in Last 100 Rides
Key Rider
Positive
Dylan Gibbons 65% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -59% POT in their L100 Races
Key Jockey
Positive
Dylan Gibbons winning at 42% POT in last 100 rides
Map Suits
Positive
Suitable Map, where runners in this position outperform market by 1%
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Imprv Needed
Negative
Would need to lift here to feature
AAP
On pace but unable to sustain bid at Randwick over this trip. Others with greater appeal.
ILB
Looked outclassed when 10th last time at Randwick and facing a stronger class.
RSIS
Didn't attack the line when 10th last run at Randwick and competing in a higher grade.