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Taree (NSW) horses tips & previews

One race at a time: field, form guide and win/place odds for Taree (NSW), with capture times on every price.

Meeting — Fri 16 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT

Meetings · Fri, 16 OctTaree (NSW)Change

Race 6 — Bakewell Haulage Krambach Cup 1300m · jumps

Race preview

The Bakewell Haulage Krambach Cup at Taree is a BM86 handicap over 1300 metres on a SOFT7 track under overcast skies, jumping at 4:10 pm AEDT. Show 'Em Howl is shortest in the win market, with Zaru next, followed by Zoucratic and Denial rounding out the first four. This is a competitive field where recent form and track experience will count, and the soft going adds another layer to the puzzle.

Show 'Em Howl sits at the top of the market and rates 100 in the market's assessment. The gelding backed up quickly after a sound midfield run at Port Macquarie over 1200 metres, and Luke Rolls—the rider—is running at a 42 per cent ROI above career average. Zaru, drawn seven, carries credentials of his own. He was just denied by a nose here at Taree on 14 August over 1400 metres and the comment suggests Aaron Bullock's return to the saddle could be the difference; the pair are lethal at home over this trip, though the form line shows a $17 roughie outing where the horse never got into the race at Wyong last time. Zoucratic, the third player, nabbed a win at Narromine over this exact distance and has a hot jockey-trainer combo—Alysha Collett and T S Howlett—running at 101 per cent POT. Denial from the Paul Snowden stable is a value hope, drawn three, and ran on with conviction from back half at Port Macquarie for his new connections, though this is his first spin around Taree.

Deebee's Girl will lead from barrier six and the data suggests she goes hard early. She and jockey Daniel Smith form a 383 per cent outperforming combo, a yarn worth noting in a race where the early pattern could shape the whole affair. The speedGroups show Show 'Em Howl, Zaru, and Denial will camp in the offmidfield brigade, which puts pressure on the leader and creates room for those off the pace. Zoucratic and He's Godspeed profile as runners better suited to travelling in the back third. The race is there to be won by something that can settle kindly and hit the line on the back of Deebee's Girl's tempo.

Race notes

  • BM86 HCP,KRAM CUP BM86,Open
  • SOFT7
  • Overcast
  • 10 runners

Shortest win price

Show 'Em Howl (2)

2.40

Most career wins

Xtra Approval

8-5-5 from 84 starts

Speed map

Back left · leaders right

Backmarker

  • 9Savvyrocker

Offmidfield

  • 8Denial
  • 1Zaru
  • 2Show 'Em Howl

Midfield

  • 10Xtra Approval

Offpace

  • 13He's Godspeed
  • 5Zoucratic
  • 14Master Of Rewards

Onpace

  • 4Get Some Fun

Leader

  • 11Deebee's Girl
  • Zaru · Negative

    Cold J/T Combo

    Combo are losing -39% POT in their L100 Races

  • Show 'Em Howl · Positive

    Jockey ROI

    Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 42% in Last 100 Rides

  • Get Some Fun · Negative

    Current SR

    Rider’s recent POT is returning 30% lower than Career Avg.

  • Zoucratic · Positive

    Jockey ROI

    Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 17% in Last 100 Rides

No.RunnerBarWgtLast 5WinPlace
1ZaruJ: Aaron Bullock·T: Lyndall Olson757kg6 4 2 2 564: 6-14-12$4.00$1.40

Career

64: 6-14-12

Rating · IRD

84

Speed map

Offmidfield

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey80%
  • Trainer100%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
  • Early Speed20%
  • Rating60%
  • Closing Speed80%

Record

  • First-up

    12: 0-5-1

  • Second-up

    11: 2-3-2

  • Third-up

    11: 2-3-2

  • Fourth-up

    10: 1-2-3

  • Track Quirindi

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Taree

    20: 4-8-5

  • Track CurrentTrack

    20: 4-8-5

  • Distance 900m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1010m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1100m

    4: 0-0-0

  • Going Good

    30: 2-8-3

  • Going Heavy

    15: 1-5-2

  • Going Soft

    19: 3-1-7

Last starts

  1. 5Wyong1350m4 Sept 2026 · BM64 · GOOD46.2L
  2. 2Taree1400m14 Aug 2026 · HOPKNLIVER BM85 · GOOD40.43L
  3. 2Muswellbrook1280m26 July 2026 · BENGALLA BM87 · GOOD40.1L
  4. 4Grafton1190m5 July 2026 · JOHN CARLTON · SOFT51.3L
  5. 6Port Macquarie1010m14 June 2026 · HCP · SOFT75.9L
  6. 1Taree1000m5 June 2026 · Barrier Trial · HEAVY(8)-0.7
  7. 5Coffs Harbour1200m27 Dec 2025 · BM82 · HEAVY96.1L
  8. 9Newcastle1350m6 Dec 2025 · BM68 HCP · GOOD47.1L

Insights

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -39% POT in their L100 Races

  • Track Exp

    Positive

    Knows this track well

  • Fresh

    Positive

    Freshened up. Had a break of 42-60 days

  • Well Placed

    Positive

    Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Let-up (42-days). Great run when just missed at Taree 14 Aug. Sent out $17 when keen and never got into the race at Wyong. Senior rider back on and lethal at home over this trip. Keep safe.

ILB

Back from a freshen up. Was $17.00 and kept chasing when 5th last run at Wyong but racing in stronger company. Good to see Aaron Bullock is jumping on. Should go very close.

RP

Beaten 6l (fifth) at Wyong last month; likes this combination of C&D; may have to settle for supporting role.

RSIS

Let up. Odds of 16/1 and outpaced some runners late when 5th last time at Wyong but up in class. Aaron Bullock takes the reins today. Can win this.

2Show 'Em HowlJ: Luke Rolls·T: R J Agnew455kg6 3 4 6 421: 4-3-1$2.40$1.24

Career

21: 4-3-1

Rating · IRD

100

Speed map

Offmidfield

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey100%
  • Trainer60%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed20%
  • Rating100%
  • Closing Speed50%

Record

  • First-up

    5: 1-0-0

  • Second-up

    4: 2-0-0

  • Third-up

    4: 0-1-1

  • Fourth-up

    3: 0-1-0

  • Track Rosehill

    2: 0-1-0

  • Track CurrentTrack

    5: 1-1-1

  • Track Eagle Farm

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1412m

    1: 0-1-0

  • Distance 1500m

    2: 1-1-0

  • Distance 1000m

    2: 1-0-0

  • Going Good

    12: 3-0-1

  • Going Heavy

    1: 0-1-0

  • Going Soft

    8: 1-2-0

Last starts

  1. 4Port Macquarie1200m9 Oct 2026 · Open · GOOD41.56L
  2. 6Gold Coast1200m19 Sept 2026 · BM70 · GOOD32.4L
  3. 4Eagle Farm1200m29 Aug 2026 · BM70 · GOOD42.34L
  4. 3Taree1400m14 Aug 2026 · HOPKNLIVER BM85 · GOOD40.45L
  5. 6Randwick Kensington1300m29 July 2026 · 3UP BM72 HCP · SOFT52.81L
  6. 6Grafton1175m16 July 2026 · CTRYASSOC - CL6 · GOOD33.06L
  7. 4Grafton1175m19 Apr 2026 · BRUSHGROVEBM82 · GOOD32.8L
  8. 15Randwick1400m4 Apr 2026 · CTRY CHAMP · SOFT77.96L

Insights

  • Jockey ROI

    Positive

    Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 42% in Last 100 Rides

  • Trainer Career

    Negative

    Trainer Career S/R is 9%

  • Key Rider

    Positive

    Luke Rolls 59% above market expected in L100 Rides

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -34% POT in their L100 Races

  • Trainer A2E

    Negative

    Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 29%

  • Hot Jockey

    Positive

    Luke Rolls in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 59%

  • Better for last start

    Positive

    Improved with last few runs

  • Fitness

    Positive

    At peak fitness backing up

Comments

AAP

Backing up quickly. Ran on soundly from midfield at Port Macquarie. Very fit, can challenge.

ILB

Backing up quickly for this race. At $4.00 picked up some ground to run 4th last start at Port Macquarie and up against a less competitive field. Like to be on it today.

RP

Has won at this course; running consistently; fair effort when beaten 1½l over 6f at Port Macquarie (handicap) last week; much respected as recent performance was encouraging.

RSIS

On a short back up. Started at 3/1 and overtook some late when 4th last start at Port Macquarie and up against a less challenging field. Nice enough type to be supported.

3DamasScratched15––––

Rating · IRD

20

Comments

AAP

Backing up quickly. Steps out for third run new stable/region. Handily placed and worked home soundly at Port Macquarie. Right in the mix.

ILB

Backs up quickly. At $17.00 peaked on the run when 5th last time at Port Macquarie and drops back to a suitable class.

RSIS

Racing on a quick back up. Was 16/1 and found wanting late when 5th last run at Port Macquarie and challenged by less formidable competitors.

4Get Some FunJ: Madeline Owen·T: Ms K Owen255kg7 6 6 3 925: 4-2-4$18.00$3.60

Career

25: 4-2-4

Rating · IRD

77

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey20%
  • Trainer80%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo60%
  • Early Speed100%
  • Rating40%
  • Closing Speed50%

Record

  • First-up

    4: 0-1-0

  • Second-up

    3: 0-0-0

  • Third-up

    3: 0-0-1

  • Fourth-up

    3: 1-0-1

  • Track Hawkesbury

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Rosehill

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Wyong

    2: 0-0-0

  • Distance 900m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1100m

    2: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1106m

    2: 0-1-0

  • Going Good

    11: 2-1-3

  • Going Heavy

    4: 0-1-0

  • Going Soft

    10: 2-0-1

Last starts

  1. 9Port Macquarie1500m9 Oct 2026 · HASTINGS BM87 · GOOD43.57L
  2. 3Bowraville1370m19 Sept 2026 · BOWRAVILLE CUP · GOOD31.29L
  3. 6Tuncurry1200m11 Sept 2026 · BM74 · GOOD34.7L
  4. 6Tamworth1200m25 Aug 2026 · Benchmark 82 · SOFT54.6L
  5. 7Coffs Harbour1000m7 Aug 2026 · BM74 · SOFT54.1L
  6. 4Taree1250m30 Jan 2026 · CL4 PREV · SOFT51.3L
  7. 1Taree1300m2 Jan 2026 · BM66 · SOFT5-0.25
  8. 3Taree1250m23 Dec 2025 · BM66 · GOOD40.78L

Insights

  • Current SR

    Negative

    Rider’s recent POT is returning 30% lower than Career Avg.

  • Rider Poor SR

    Negative

    Jockey underperforming market expectations by 41% in L100 rides

  • Nice Barrier

    Positive

    Well drawn from gate 2

  • Track Exp

    Positive

    Knows this track well

  • Fitness

    Positive

    At peak fitness backing up

  • Well Placed

    Positive

    Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Backing up quickly. On pace but unable to sustain bid at Port Macquarie. Can lead or take a sit. Fit from racing, could give some cheek at odds.

ILB

On a short back up. At $41.00 weakened under pressure when 9th last run at Port Macquarie but has a good draw. Expecting to settle positively. Marginal prospect.

RP

Close up behind Master Of Rewards when ninth at Port Macquarie over 7½f (handicap) last week; a winner over C&D; deserves respect with a bit more luck as excuses last time (crowded concluding stages) and she's shown signs of promise here and there.

RSIS

On a quick back up. At 40/1 gave away some ground when 9th last start at Port Macquarie but has a good draw. Should race on the pace.

5ZoucraticJ: Alysha Collett·T: T S Howlett155kg6 5 3 3 116: 3-0-4$4.00$1.40

Career

16: 3-0-4

Rating · IRD

78

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey100%
  • Trainer80%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
  • Early Speed100%
  • Rating40%
  • Closing Speed80%

Record

  • First-up

    3: 0-0-0

  • Second-up

    2: 1-0-0

  • Third-up

    2: 0-0-1

  • Fourth-up

    2: 0-0-1

  • Track Kembla Grange

    3: 0-0-1

  • Track Quirindi

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Newcastle

    2: 1-0-0

  • Distance 1250m

    3: 1-0-2

  • Distance 1280m

    1: 1-0-0

  • Distance 1300m

    2: 1-0-0

  • Going Good

    6: 1-0-1

  • Going Soft

    10: 2-0-3

Last starts

  1. 1Narromine1300m21 Sept 2026 · Benchmark 66 · GOOD3-1.64
  2. 3Mudgee1200m30 Aug 2026 · Benchmark 66 · SOFT70.5L
  3. 3Gunnedah1250m14 Aug 2026 · CTRY CL3 · SOFT60.6L
  4. 5Muswellbrook1500m26 July 2026 · BM66 · GOOD47.2L
  5. 6Quirindi1200m13 July 2026 · BM66 · SOFT73.54L
  6. 1Muswellbrook1280m12 June 2026 · CTRY CL1 · SOFT7-2.2
  7. 3Gunnedah1250m24 May 2026 · Benchmark 58 · SOFT51L
  8. 10Tamworth1400m24 Apr 2026 · CTRY CL1 · GOOD43.8L

Insights

  • Jockey ROI

    Positive

    Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 17% in Last 100 Rides

  • Hot J/T Combo

    Positive

    Combo are out performing market expectations by 101%

  • Fast Early

    Positive

    Sectionals suggest goes hard early

  • Solid Run LS

    Positive

    Won last start

  • Drawn In

    Positive

    Suited drawn down low

  • Well Placed

    Positive

    Drops back to a suitable class

  • Consistent

    Positive

    Showing up at the business end

  • Weight Drop

    Positive

    Drops 5kg from LS run

Comments

AAP

Handy competitor. Ran home nicely to win after settling handy at Narromine over this trip. Commands attention here.

ILB

Stormed home to win last time at Narromine and has drawn to do little work. Up against a more competitive field. Gets a reduction in weight. Betting is the best guide.

RP

Won a handicap by 1½l at Narromine three weeks ago; easy enough to take on despite the last time out success.

RSIS

Charged home to win last time at Narromine and gets a favourable draw. Competing in a higher grade. Will benefit with the weight drop. Watch for a sign in the market.

6StupendoScratched10––––

Rating · IRD

20

Figures

  • Jockey50%
  • Trainer60%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo50%
  • Early Speed50%
  • Rating50%
  • Closing Speed100%

Insights

  • Improver

    Positive

    Poised to improve on recent form here

Comments

AAP

Got back, cut loose late to fill the minors at Canberra. New to Taree. This looks a deeper race and won't want it too wet but one for exotics.

ILB

Attacked the line when 2nd beaten by 3 1/4L last time at Canberra.

RSIS

Picked up late ground when 2nd last run at Canberra.

7Brutal EyesScratched2––––

Rating · IRD

20

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey100%
  • Trainer100%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo40%
  • Early Speed100%
  • Rating60%
  • Closing Speed60%

Insights

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -31% POT in their L100 Races

  • Trainer Form

    Positive

    In form stable, out performing market expectations 38%

  • Trainer ROI

    Positive

    Runners from this stable currently going at 11% POT in L100 Runners

  • Early Splits

    Positive

    Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit

  • Drawn In

    Positive

    Suited drawn down low

  • Class Rise

    Negative

    Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Off pace (deep) and failed to make an impression at Canberra. Getting fitter and can figure from the better draw.

ILB

Started at $14.00 and finished 4th last time at Canberra but gets a favourable draw. Racing consistently since returning from a break.

RSIS

Started 13/1 and finished 4th last run at Canberra but drawn nicely. Exhibiting good form recently.

8DenialJ: Andrew Gibbons·T: Paul Snowden355kg5 6 5 6 514: 2-2-1$9.00$2.50

Career

14: 2-2-1

Rating · IRD

76

Speed map

Offmidfield

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey80%
  • Trainer80%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed80%
  • Rating40%
  • Closing Speed80%

Record

  • First-up

    4: 1-1-0

  • Second-up

    3: 0-1-0

  • Third-up

    2: 0-0-0

  • Fourth-up

    2: 0-0-0

  • Track Goulburn

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Hawkesbury

    2: 0-0-1

  • Track Gundagai

    1: 1-0-0

  • Distance 1000m

    1: 0-1-0

  • Distance 1004m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1020m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Good

    7: 2-0-0

  • Going Soft

    7: 0-2-1

Last starts

  1. 5Port Macquarie1004m27 Sept 2026 · BM74 · GOOD42.04L
  2. 6Kembla Grange1200m15 Aug 2026 · Benchmark 64 · GOOD42.5L
  3. 5Illawarra Grange1200m30 July 2026 · BM68 HCP · GOOD43.5L
  4. 6Moruya1020m10 July 2026 · BM66 · SOFT53L
  5. 5Hawkesbury1100m7 Mar 2026 · Benchmark 64 · SOFT51.8L
  6. 5Goulburn1300m12 Feb 2026 · BM66 · GOOD44.5L
  7. 9Randwick Kensington1250m21 Jan 2026 · 3&4Y BM64 · SOFT76.2L
  8. 1Gundagai1180m2 Jan 2026 · CL1 · GOOD3-0.1

Insights

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races

  • Slow Early LS

    Negative

    Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg

  • Ran On Hard LS

    Positive

    Ran on well last start

  • Increased Dist

    Positive

    Distance rise from last start

  • Well Placed

    Positive

    Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Ran on with some conviction from back half at Port Macquarie for new stable. Query heavy and first time around Taree but drawn to effect. Value hope.

ILB

At $4.20 passed some rivals in the late stages when 5th last run at Port Macquarie and back to a rise in trip. Gets back and needs luck. Would need to step up.

RP

Useful in this grade and string of consistent efforts of late; solid run when fifth over 5f at Port Macquarie (handicap) on first outing for new trainer three weeks ago; encouragement to be gleaned from latest effort so could go well.

RSIS

Started 10/3 and inched into 5th last time at Port Macquarie and stepping back up in trip. Likely to get back in the field. Facing a stronger group of contenders.

9SavvyrockerJ: Shannen Llewellyn·T: R N Godbolt555kg7 5 6 12 732: 4-5-3$23.00$3.90

Career

32: 4-5-3

Rating · IRD

81

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey20%
  • Trainer60%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed100%
  • Rating40%
  • Closing Speed80%

Record

  • First-up

    3: 0-0-1

  • Second-up

    2: 0-0-0

  • Third-up

    2: 0-0-0

  • Fourth-up

    1: 0-0-1

  • Track Cranbourne

    2: 0-0-1

  • Track Taree

    8: 0-3-1

  • Track CurrentTrack

    8: 0-3-1

  • Distance 1006m

    1: 1-0-0

  • Distance 1190m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1600m

    2: 0-0-0

  • Going Good

    14: 2-1-1

  • Going Heavy

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Soft

    13: 1-4-1

Last starts

  1. 7Port Macquarie1204m27 Sept 2026 · BM58 · GOOD44.73L
  2. 12Taree1400m14 Aug 2026 · HOPKNLIVER BM85 · GOOD45.95L
  3. 6Coffs Harbour1200m7 Aug 2026 · DAN BAKER BM93 · SOFT53.1L
  4. 5Grafton1400m16 July 2026 · MOTHERGIFT BM90 · GOOD34.5L
  5. 7Grafton1190m5 July 2026 · JOHN CARLTON · SOFT51.9L
  6. 9Port Macquarie1512m14 June 2026 · HCP · SOFT78.7L
  7. 4Taree1250m5 June 2026 · BM82 · HEAVY81.5L
  8. 1Port Macquarie1200m26 Apr 2026 · BM58 · SOFT7-1

Insights

  • Rider

    Negative

    Negative rider change today

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races

  • Dist S/R

    Negative

    Poor performer at the distance

  • Form At Track

    Negative

    Yet to win here

  • Class Rise

    Negative

    Racing in stronger company

  • Weight Drop

    Positive

    Drops 8kg from LS run

Comments

AAP

Had all before her at turn and went home tamely at Port Macquarie. Has the ability but lift needed on last effort.

ILB

Started $8.00 and not competitive when 7th last time at Port Macquarie and challenged by more formidable competitors. Has a great burst of speed late. Gets some weight relief. Can't leave out of your calculations.

RP

Poor form of late a cause for concern and largely disappointing since successful in a handicap at Port Macquarie in April; not disgraced when seventh of ten at Port Macquarie over 6f (handicap) last month; others more appealing.

RSIS

At 7/1 tailed off when 7th last time at Port Macquarie and matched against a stronger field. Will be trying to topple them late. Suited by the weight drop. Respect the betting.

10Xtra ApprovalJ: Paige Fergusson-Smith·T: A P Ball1055kg2 4 9 6 684: 8-5-5$71.00$7.50

Career

84: 8-5-5

Rating · IRD

75

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey100%
  • Trainer100%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
  • Early Speed80%
  • Rating40%
  • Closing Speed60%

Record

  • First-up

    8: 0-0-1

  • Second-up

    7: 1-0-0

  • Third-up

    7: 1-0-0

  • Fourth-up

    7: 1-2-0

  • Track Muswellbrook

    4: 0-1-0

  • Track Rockhampton

    3: 0-0-1

  • Track Taree

    26: 3-1-1

  • Distance 1550m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1257m

    1: 1-0-0

  • Distance 1370m

    2: 0-0-1

  • Going Firm

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Good

    28: 2-0-3

  • Going Heavy

    24: 3-2-1

Last starts

  1. 6Port Macquarie1204m27 Sept 2026 · BM58 · GOOD42.26L
  2. 6Bowraville1370m19 Sept 2026 · BOWRAVILLE CUP · GOOD33.09L
  3. 9Tuncurry1500m24 Aug 2026 · CUP PREL BM85 · SOFT74.8L
  4. 4Taree1400m14 Aug 2026 · HOPKNLIVER BM85 · GOOD40.48L
  5. 2Port Macquarie1206m31 July 2026 · BM58 CL2+ · SOFT62.8L
  6. 8Muswellbrook1280m7 July 2026 · BM66 · SOFT73.2L
  7. 6Newcastle1200m27 June 2026 · BM64 · SOFT77.8L
  8. 8Port Macquarie1512m14 June 2026 · HCP · SOFT76.3L

Insights

  • Hot J/T Combo

    Positive

    Combo are winning 45% POT in their L100 Races

  • Trainer ROI

    Positive

    Runners from this stable currently going at 19% POT in L100 Runners

  • Maps Well

    Positive

    Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 8%

  • Ran On Hard LS

    Positive

    Ran on well last start

  • Dist Stats

    Negative

    Has struggled at this distance range

  • Class Rise

    Negative

    Racing in stronger company

  • Win Drought

    Negative

    Not won for a while

  • Weight Drop

    Positive

    Drops 6kg from LS run

Comments

AAP

Gave solid chase in a good effort at Port Macquarie. Others with stronger claims.

ILB

Was $26.00 and came in 6th last start at Port Macquarie and up against a higher level of opposition. Paige Fergusson Smith takes a large claim. Facing a difficult task.

RP

Course specialist who has won three times here; respectable effort in defeat (beaten just over 2l) at Port Macquarie over 6f (handicap) 19 days ago.

RSIS

Started 25/1 and ran 6th last run at Port Macquarie and racing against tougher rivals. The large claim from Paige Fergusson Smith should help.

11Deebee's GirlJ: Daniel Smith·T: Cassandra Schmidt655kg10 1 8 11 114: 3-1-2$16.00$3.50

Career

14: 3-1-2

Rating · IRD

74

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey40%
  • Trainer100%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
  • Early Speed100%
  • Rating40%
  • Closing Speed60%

Record

  • First-up

    5: 0-0-1

  • Second-up

    4: 2-0-1

  • Third-up

    3: 1-0-0

  • Fourth-up

    2: 0-1-0

  • Track Lismore

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Kempsey

    2: 1-1-0

  • Track Port Macquarie

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1250m

    2: 0-1-0

  • Distance 1262m

    1: 1-0-0

  • Distance 1300m

    2: 1-0-0

  • Going Heavy

    2: 1-0-0

  • Going Soft

    6: 0-1-0

  • Going Good

    6: 2-0-2

Last starts

  1. 1Armidale1300m20 Sept 2026 · BM58 · GOOD3-3.51
  2. 11Taree1250m31 Aug 2026 · Benchmark 58 · SOFT68.3L
  3. 8Taree1300m5 June 2026 · Benchmark 58 · HEAVY88L
  4. 1Taree1262m12 May 2026 · CTRY CL1 · HEAVY8-5.2
  5. 10Port Macquarie1000m26 Apr 2026 · Benchmark 58 · SOFT78.1L
  6. 5Grafton1005m7 Apr 2026 · CL1 · GOOD42.7L
  7. 2Kempsey1250m15 Dec 2025 · CTRY CL1 · SOFT51.4L
  8. 4Taree1005m1 Dec 2025 · CL1 · GOOD42.3L

Insights

  • Hot J/T Combo

    Positive

    Combo are out performing market expectations by 383%

  • Fast Early

    Positive

    Sectionals suggest goes hard early

  • Margin LS

    Positive

    Won by a big margin last start

  • Class Rise

    Negative

    Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Well rated in front and kept on to win at Armidale when second-up. Leader. Stripping fitter, will take stopping in this company.

ILB

Was much too speedy in front to win by a margin of more than 3 1/2L last run at Armidale but facing formidable rivals. Has plenty of early speed. Needs significant improvement.

RP

Has won here; scored impressively at Armidale last month; has to be respected.

RSIS

Took charge of the race to win by a margin of just over 3 1/2L last start at Armidale but up against a higher level of opposition.

12AmaroneScratched14––––

Rating · IRD

20

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey50%
  • Trainer80%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo40%
  • Early Speed80%
  • Rating40%
  • Closing Speed50%

Insights

  • Fast Finisher

    Positive

    Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start

Comments

AAP

Resuming (23-weeks). Latest trial was solid enough. Trained on track but awkwardly drawn for return. This will test.

ILB

Resuming after a break. Improved to place when 2nd beaten by 2L last time at this track but down in trip. Competing in a more challenging grade.

RSIS

Fresh today. Ran on when 2nd beaten by 2L last time at the track but back to a shorter trip. Facing a stronger class.

13He's GodspeedJ: Zac Wadick·T: B M Lazzarini855kg10 3 5 4 735: 5-3-4$23.00$3.90

Career

35: 5-3-4

Rating · IRD

74

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey40%
  • Trainer60%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed100%
  • Rating40%
  • Closing Speed40%

Record

  • First-up

    4: 0-0-2

  • Second-up

    3: 0-1-0

  • Third-up

    3: 0-1-0

  • Fourth-up

    2: 1-0-0

  • Track Donald

    2: 1-0-0

  • Track Taree

    4: 0-0-2

  • Track Hamilton

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1412m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1440m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1206m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Synthetic

    2: 0-0-1

  • Going Good

    19: 4-1-1

  • Going Heavy

    6: 0-0-1

Last starts

  1. 7Ballina1300m4 Oct 2026 · BM74 · GOOD35.08L
  2. 4Bowraville1370m19 Sept 2026 · BOWRAVILLE CUP · GOOD31.31L
  3. 5Taree1614m21 July 2026 · BM58 · HEAVY82L
  4. 3Taree1614m9 July 2026 · BM58 · HEAVY101.6L
  5. 10Randwick Kensington1550m1 July 2026 · 3UP BM72 HCP · HEAVY810L
  6. 1Inverell1600m19 June 2026 · Benchmark 58 · GOOD4-0.6
  7. 5Taree1600m5 June 2026 · Open · HEAVY82.8L
  8. 5Port Macquarie1500m27 May 2026 · Benchmark 58 · HEAVY92.6L

Insights

  • Trainer SR

    Negative

    Brett Lazzarini striking at just 5%

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races

  • Trainer Recent

    Negative

    Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 28%

  • Early Splits

    Positive

    Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit

  • Gave ground LS

    Negative

    Faded towards the finish last time out

  • Form At Track

    Negative

    Yet to win here

  • Well Placed

    Positive

    Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Unable to make an impression at Ballina over this trip. Has the ability but lift needed on last effort.

ILB

Started $7.50 and tailed off to finish 7th last time at Ballina and facing a stronger class. Considering others.

RP

Last of seven at Ballina 12 days ago; not hard to turn elsewhere.

RSIS

At 13/2 couldn't maintain the pace when 7th last start at Ballina and competing at a higher level of competition.

14Master Of RewardsJ: Peter Graham·T: Ms V Mclennan955kg4 8 9 3 868: 4-1-5$126.00$13.00

Career

68: 4-1-5

Rating · IRD

70

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey100%
  • Trainer80%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
  • Early Speed20%
  • Rating20%
  • Closing Speed50%

Record

  • First-up

    6: 1-1-0

  • Second-up

    5: 0-0-0

  • Third-up

    5: 0-0-1

  • Fourth-up

    4: 0-0-0

  • Track Beaudesert

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Rosehill

    10: 0-0-2

  • Track Grafton

    5: 1-0-0

  • Distance 1300m

    5: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1305m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1410m

    2: 0-0-0

  • Going Good

    32: 0-0-3

  • Going Heavy

    11: 1-1-0

  • Going Soft

    22: 3-0-2

Last starts

  1. 8Port Macquarie1500m9 Oct 2026 · HASTINGS BM87 · GOOD43.03L
  2. 3Tamworth1400m1 Oct 2026 · BM50 · GOOD42.93L
  3. 9Lismore1310m25 Sept 2026 · Benchmark 58 · SOFT57.45L
  4. 8Bowraville1370m19 Sept 2026 · BOWRAVILLE CUP · GOOD312.99L
  5. 4Kempsey1450m5 Sept 2026 · BM50 · GOOD41.4L
  6. 8Grafton1410m29 Aug 2026 · BM50 · SOFT54.1L
  7. 6Port Macquarie1512m22 Aug 2026 · BM50 · HEAVY85.9L
  8. 4Ballina1300m11 Aug 2026 · BM66 · HEAVY109.5L

Insights

  • Jockey ROI

    Positive

    Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 51% in Last 100 Rides

  • Hot J/T Combo

    Positive

    Combo are out performing market expectations by 167%

  • Maps Well

    Positive

    Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 8%

  • Dist S/R

    Negative

    Poor performer at the distance

  • Form At Track

    Negative

    Yet to win here

  • Primed

    Positive

    Fitter here racing on a quick back up

  • Well Placed

    Positive

    Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

On a short back-up. Under a hold, only battled home at Port Macquarie. Unplaced from 4 starts here. Has work cut out.

ILB

On a quick back up. Was $101.00 and struggled when 8th last time at Port Macquarie. Lines up against a competitive field.

RP

Not beaten too far when eighth at Port Macquarie over 7½f (handicap) a week ago; easy to oppose.

RSIS

Backing up quickly. Started at 100/1 and underwhelming when 8th last start at Port Macquarie.

15ImatruestarScratched4––––

Career

49: 4-9-8

Rating · IRD

90

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey50%
  • Trainer60%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed80%
  • Rating60%
  • Closing Speed80%

Record

  • First-up

    9: 1-1-1

  • Second-up

    7: 1-0-3

  • Third-up

    6: 0-1-0

  • Fourth-up

    4: 0-1-1

  • Track Doomben

    1: 0-1-0

  • Track Taree

    11: 1-3-1

  • Track CurrentTrack

    11: 1-3-1

  • Distance 1250m

    4: 0-2-0

  • Distance 1350m

    2: 0-1-1

  • Distance 1550m

    3: 0-1-1

  • Going Good

    29: 4-5-5

  • Going Heavy

    5: 0-1-1

  • Going Soft

    15: 0-3-2

Last starts

  1. 4Muswellbrook1280m5 Oct 2026 · DENMAN CUP BM86 · GOOD41.4L
  2. 1Taree1008m22 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(6)-0.4
  3. 4Taree1000m14 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)1.2L
  4. 12Randwick1400m7 June 2025 · 3UP BM78 HCP · SOFT76.2L
  5. 7Eagle Farm1600m19 Apr 2025 · GOOD42.22L
  6. 4Eagle Farm1500m5 Apr 2025 · SOFT62.59L
  7. 2Eagle Farm1400m15 Mar 2025 · GOOD40.22L
  8. 1Eagle Farm1600m1 Mar 2025 · GOOD4-0.46

Insights

  • Trainer Recent

    Negative

    Camp struggling with S/R just 8%

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -37% POT in their L100 Races

  • Trainer Recent

    Negative

    Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 27%

  • Ran On Hard LS

    Positive

    Ran on well last start

  • Dist S/R

    Negative

    Poor performer at the distance

  • Class Rise

    Negative

    Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Snagged back and last at 400m before letting down late to just miss the minors at Muswellbrook for new trainer. Better for the outing. Usually gets back. Could get into the placings.

ILB

Started at $20.00 and moved through the field into 4th last start at Muswellbrook. Might have to make up considerable ground.

RP

Producing consistent form and grade looks suitable; wasn't beaten that far when fourth (beaten 1½l) at Muswellbrook 11 days ago; also engaged in race 7 at Taree.

RSIS

Was 19/1 and showed some merit late when 4th last run at Muswellbrook. Likely to settle back in the field.

Odds correct as at . Odds can change.

Past meetings

  • Tue 22 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 7 races