Shortest win price
Show 'Em Howl (2)
2.40
The Bakewell Haulage Krambach Cup at Taree is a BM86 handicap over 1300 metres on a SOFT7 track under overcast skies, jumping at 4:10 pm AEDT. Show 'Em Howl is shortest in the win market, with Zaru next, followed by Zoucratic and Denial rounding out the first four. This is a competitive field where recent form and track experience will count, and the soft going adds another layer to the puzzle.
Show 'Em Howl sits at the top of the market and rates 100 in the market's assessment. The gelding backed up quickly after a sound midfield run at Port Macquarie over 1200 metres, and Luke Rolls—the rider—is running at a 42 per cent ROI above career average. Zaru, drawn seven, carries credentials of his own. He was just denied by a nose here at Taree on 14 August over 1400 metres and the comment suggests Aaron Bullock's return to the saddle could be the difference; the pair are lethal at home over this trip, though the form line shows a $17 roughie outing where the horse never got into the race at Wyong last time. Zoucratic, the third player, nabbed a win at Narromine over this exact distance and has a hot jockey-trainer combo—Alysha Collett and T S Howlett—running at 101 per cent POT. Denial from the Paul Snowden stable is a value hope, drawn three, and ran on with conviction from back half at Port Macquarie for his new connections, though this is his first spin around Taree.
Deebee's Girl will lead from barrier six and the data suggests she goes hard early. She and jockey Daniel Smith form a 383 per cent outperforming combo, a yarn worth noting in a race where the early pattern could shape the whole affair. The speedGroups show Show 'Em Howl, Zaru, and Denial will camp in the offmidfield brigade, which puts pressure on the leader and creates room for those off the pace. Zoucratic and He's Godspeed profile as runners better suited to travelling in the back third. The race is there to be won by something that can settle kindly and hit the line on the back of Deebee's Girl's tempo.
Shortest win price
Show 'Em Howl (2)
2.40
Most career wins
Xtra Approval
8-5-5 from 84 starts
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Offmidfield
Midfield
Offpace
Onpace
Leader
Zaru · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -39% POT in their L100 Races
Show 'Em Howl · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 42% in Last 100 Rides
Get Some Fun · Negative
Current SR
Rider’s recent POT is returning 30% lower than Career Avg.
Zoucratic · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 17% in Last 100 Rides
Career
64: 6-14-12
Rating · IRD
84
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
12: 0-5-1
Second-up
11: 2-3-2
Third-up
11: 2-3-2
Fourth-up
10: 1-2-3
Track Quirindi
1: 0-0-0
Track Taree
20: 4-8-5
Track CurrentTrack
20: 4-8-5
Distance 900m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1010m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
4: 0-0-0
Going Good
30: 2-8-3
Going Heavy
15: 1-5-2
Going Soft
19: 3-1-7
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -39% POT in their L100 Races
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Fresh
Positive
Freshened up. Had a break of 42-60 days
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Let-up (42-days). Great run when just missed at Taree 14 Aug. Sent out $17 when keen and never got into the race at Wyong. Senior rider back on and lethal at home over this trip. Keep safe.
ILB
Back from a freshen up. Was $17.00 and kept chasing when 5th last run at Wyong but racing in stronger company. Good to see Aaron Bullock is jumping on. Should go very close.
RP
Beaten 6l (fifth) at Wyong last month; likes this combination of C&D; may have to settle for supporting role.
RSIS
Let up. Odds of 16/1 and outpaced some runners late when 5th last time at Wyong but up in class. Aaron Bullock takes the reins today. Can win this.
Career
21: 4-3-1
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
5: 1-0-0
Second-up
4: 2-0-0
Third-up
4: 0-1-1
Fourth-up
3: 0-1-0
Track Rosehill
2: 0-1-0
Track CurrentTrack
5: 1-1-1
Track Eagle Farm
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1412m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1500m
2: 1-1-0
Distance 1000m
2: 1-0-0
Going Good
12: 3-0-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-1-0
Going Soft
8: 1-2-0
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 42% in Last 100 Rides
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 9%
Key Rider
Positive
Luke Rolls 59% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -34% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 29%
Hot Jockey
Positive
Luke Rolls in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 59%
Better for last start
Positive
Improved with last few runs
Fitness
Positive
At peak fitness backing up
AAP
Backing up quickly. Ran on soundly from midfield at Port Macquarie. Very fit, can challenge.
ILB
Backing up quickly for this race. At $4.00 picked up some ground to run 4th last start at Port Macquarie and up against a less competitive field. Like to be on it today.
RP
Has won at this course; running consistently; fair effort when beaten 1½l over 6f at Port Macquarie (handicap) last week; much respected as recent performance was encouraging.
RSIS
On a short back up. Started at 3/1 and overtook some late when 4th last start at Port Macquarie and up against a less challenging field. Nice enough type to be supported.
Rating · IRD
20
AAP
Backing up quickly. Steps out for third run new stable/region. Handily placed and worked home soundly at Port Macquarie. Right in the mix.
ILB
Backs up quickly. At $17.00 peaked on the run when 5th last time at Port Macquarie and drops back to a suitable class.
RSIS
Racing on a quick back up. Was 16/1 and found wanting late when 5th last run at Port Macquarie and challenged by less formidable competitors.
Career
25: 4-2-4
Rating · IRD
77
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
4: 0-1-0
Second-up
3: 0-0-0
Third-up
3: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
3: 1-0-1
Track Hawkesbury
1: 0-0-0
Track Rosehill
1: 0-0-0
Track Wyong
2: 0-0-0
Distance 900m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1106m
2: 0-1-0
Going Good
11: 2-1-3
Going Heavy
4: 0-1-0
Going Soft
10: 2-0-1
Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 30% lower than Career Avg.
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 41% in L100 rides
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 2
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Fitness
Positive
At peak fitness backing up
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Backing up quickly. On pace but unable to sustain bid at Port Macquarie. Can lead or take a sit. Fit from racing, could give some cheek at odds.
ILB
On a short back up. At $41.00 weakened under pressure when 9th last run at Port Macquarie but has a good draw. Expecting to settle positively. Marginal prospect.
RP
Close up behind Master Of Rewards when ninth at Port Macquarie over 7½f (handicap) last week; a winner over C&D; deserves respect with a bit more luck as excuses last time (crowded concluding stages) and she's shown signs of promise here and there.
RSIS
On a quick back up. At 40/1 gave away some ground when 9th last start at Port Macquarie but has a good draw. Should race on the pace.
Career
16: 3-0-4
Rating · IRD
78
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 1-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-1
Track Kembla Grange
3: 0-0-1
Track Quirindi
1: 0-0-0
Track Newcastle
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1250m
3: 1-0-2
Distance 1280m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1300m
2: 1-0-0
Going Good
6: 1-0-1
Going Soft
10: 2-0-3
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 17% in Last 100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 101%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Consistent
Positive
Showing up at the business end
Weight Drop
Positive
Drops 5kg from LS run
AAP
Handy competitor. Ran home nicely to win after settling handy at Narromine over this trip. Commands attention here.
ILB
Stormed home to win last time at Narromine and has drawn to do little work. Up against a more competitive field. Gets a reduction in weight. Betting is the best guide.
RP
Won a handicap by 1½l at Narromine three weeks ago; easy enough to take on despite the last time out success.
RSIS
Charged home to win last time at Narromine and gets a favourable draw. Competing in a higher grade. Will benefit with the weight drop. Watch for a sign in the market.
Rating · IRD
20
Improver
Positive
Poised to improve on recent form here
AAP
Got back, cut loose late to fill the minors at Canberra. New to Taree. This looks a deeper race and won't want it too wet but one for exotics.
ILB
Attacked the line when 2nd beaten by 3 1/4L last time at Canberra.
RSIS
Picked up late ground when 2nd last run at Canberra.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Leader
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -31% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Form
Positive
In form stable, out performing market expectations 38%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 11% POT in L100 Runners
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Off pace (deep) and failed to make an impression at Canberra. Getting fitter and can figure from the better draw.
ILB
Started at $14.00 and finished 4th last time at Canberra but gets a favourable draw. Racing consistently since returning from a break.
RSIS
Started 13/1 and finished 4th last run at Canberra but drawn nicely. Exhibiting good form recently.
Career
14: 2-2-1
Rating · IRD
76
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
4: 1-1-0
Second-up
3: 0-1-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Goulburn
1: 0-0-0
Track Hawkesbury
2: 0-0-1
Track Gundagai
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1004m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1020m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
7: 2-0-0
Going Soft
7: 0-2-1
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Increased Dist
Positive
Distance rise from last start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Ran on with some conviction from back half at Port Macquarie for new stable. Query heavy and first time around Taree but drawn to effect. Value hope.
ILB
At $4.20 passed some rivals in the late stages when 5th last run at Port Macquarie and back to a rise in trip. Gets back and needs luck. Would need to step up.
RP
Useful in this grade and string of consistent efforts of late; solid run when fifth over 5f at Port Macquarie (handicap) on first outing for new trainer three weeks ago; encouragement to be gleaned from latest effort so could go well.
RSIS
Started 10/3 and inched into 5th last time at Port Macquarie and stepping back up in trip. Likely to get back in the field. Facing a stronger group of contenders.
Career
32: 4-5-3
Rating · IRD
81
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
3: 0-0-1
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Cranbourne
2: 0-0-1
Track Taree
8: 0-3-1
Track CurrentTrack
8: 0-3-1
Distance 1006m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1190m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
14: 2-1-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
13: 1-4-1
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Form At Track
Negative
Yet to win here
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Weight Drop
Positive
Drops 8kg from LS run
AAP
Had all before her at turn and went home tamely at Port Macquarie. Has the ability but lift needed on last effort.
ILB
Started $8.00 and not competitive when 7th last time at Port Macquarie and challenged by more formidable competitors. Has a great burst of speed late. Gets some weight relief. Can't leave out of your calculations.
RP
Poor form of late a cause for concern and largely disappointing since successful in a handicap at Port Macquarie in April; not disgraced when seventh of ten at Port Macquarie over 6f (handicap) last month; others more appealing.
RSIS
At 7/1 tailed off when 7th last time at Port Macquarie and matched against a stronger field. Will be trying to topple them late. Suited by the weight drop. Respect the betting.
Career
84: 8-5-5
Rating · IRD
75
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
8: 0-0-1
Second-up
7: 1-0-0
Third-up
7: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
7: 1-2-0
Track Muswellbrook
4: 0-1-0
Track Rockhampton
3: 0-0-1
Track Taree
26: 3-1-1
Distance 1550m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1257m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1370m
2: 0-0-1
Going Firm
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
28: 2-0-3
Going Heavy
24: 3-2-1
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are winning 45% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 19% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 8%
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Dist Stats
Negative
Has struggled at this distance range
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Win Drought
Negative
Not won for a while
Weight Drop
Positive
Drops 6kg from LS run
AAP
Gave solid chase in a good effort at Port Macquarie. Others with stronger claims.
ILB
Was $26.00 and came in 6th last start at Port Macquarie and up against a higher level of opposition. Paige Fergusson Smith takes a large claim. Facing a difficult task.
RP
Course specialist who has won three times here; respectable effort in defeat (beaten just over 2l) at Port Macquarie over 6f (handicap) 19 days ago.
RSIS
Started 25/1 and ran 6th last run at Port Macquarie and racing against tougher rivals. The large claim from Paige Fergusson Smith should help.
Career
14: 3-1-2
Rating · IRD
74
Speed map
Leader
First-up
5: 0-0-1
Second-up
4: 2-0-1
Third-up
3: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-1-0
Track Lismore
1: 0-0-0
Track Kempsey
2: 1-1-0
Track Port Macquarie
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1250m
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1262m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1300m
2: 1-0-0
Going Heavy
2: 1-0-0
Going Soft
6: 0-1-0
Going Good
6: 2-0-2
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 383%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Margin LS
Positive
Won by a big margin last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Well rated in front and kept on to win at Armidale when second-up. Leader. Stripping fitter, will take stopping in this company.
ILB
Was much too speedy in front to win by a margin of more than 3 1/2L last run at Armidale but facing formidable rivals. Has plenty of early speed. Needs significant improvement.
RP
Has won here; scored impressively at Armidale last month; has to be respected.
RSIS
Took charge of the race to win by a margin of just over 3 1/2L last start at Armidale but up against a higher level of opposition.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Midfield
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
AAP
Resuming (23-weeks). Latest trial was solid enough. Trained on track but awkwardly drawn for return. This will test.
ILB
Resuming after a break. Improved to place when 2nd beaten by 2L last time at this track but down in trip. Competing in a more challenging grade.
RSIS
Fresh today. Ran on when 2nd beaten by 2L last time at the track but back to a shorter trip. Facing a stronger class.
Career
35: 5-3-4
Rating · IRD
74
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
4: 0-0-2
Second-up
3: 0-1-0
Third-up
3: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
2: 1-0-0
Track Donald
2: 1-0-0
Track Taree
4: 0-0-2
Track Hamilton
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1412m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1440m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1206m
1: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
2: 0-0-1
Going Good
19: 4-1-1
Going Heavy
6: 0-0-1
Trainer SR
Negative
Brett Lazzarini striking at just 5%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 28%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Form At Track
Negative
Yet to win here
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Unable to make an impression at Ballina over this trip. Has the ability but lift needed on last effort.
ILB
Started $7.50 and tailed off to finish 7th last time at Ballina and facing a stronger class. Considering others.
RP
Last of seven at Ballina 12 days ago; not hard to turn elsewhere.
RSIS
At 13/2 couldn't maintain the pace when 7th last start at Ballina and competing at a higher level of competition.
Career
68: 4-1-5
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
6: 1-1-0
Second-up
5: 0-0-0
Third-up
5: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
4: 0-0-0
Track Beaudesert
1: 0-0-0
Track Rosehill
10: 0-0-2
Track Grafton
5: 1-0-0
Distance 1300m
5: 0-0-0
Distance 1305m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1410m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
32: 0-0-3
Going Heavy
11: 1-1-0
Going Soft
22: 3-0-2
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 51% in Last 100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 167%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 8%
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Form At Track
Negative
Yet to win here
Primed
Positive
Fitter here racing on a quick back up
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
On a short back-up. Under a hold, only battled home at Port Macquarie. Unplaced from 4 starts here. Has work cut out.
ILB
On a quick back up. Was $101.00 and struggled when 8th last time at Port Macquarie. Lines up against a competitive field.
RP
Not beaten too far when eighth at Port Macquarie over 7½f (handicap) a week ago; easy to oppose.
RSIS
Backing up quickly. Started at 100/1 and underwhelming when 8th last start at Port Macquarie.
Career
49: 4-9-8
Rating · IRD
90
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
9: 1-1-1
Second-up
7: 1-0-3
Third-up
6: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
4: 0-1-1
Track Doomben
1: 0-1-0
Track Taree
11: 1-3-1
Track CurrentTrack
11: 1-3-1
Distance 1250m
4: 0-2-0
Distance 1350m
2: 0-1-1
Distance 1550m
3: 0-1-1
Going Good
29: 4-5-5
Going Heavy
5: 0-1-1
Going Soft
15: 0-3-2
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 8%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -37% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 27%
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Snagged back and last at 400m before letting down late to just miss the minors at Muswellbrook for new trainer. Better for the outing. Usually gets back. Could get into the placings.
ILB
Started at $20.00 and moved through the field into 4th last start at Muswellbrook. Might have to make up considerable ground.
RP
Producing consistent form and grade looks suitable; wasn't beaten that far when fourth (beaten 1½l) at Muswellbrook 11 days ago; also engaged in race 7 at Taree.
RSIS
Was 19/1 and showed some merit late when 4th last run at Muswellbrook. Likely to settle back in the field.