Shortest win price
Royal Silver (3)
2.50
Welcome to Wyong for the Prysmian Cables Hcp (C1) over 1200m, run on a good four surface under fine skies with the action jumping at 1:50 pm AEDT. Looking at the early win market order, punters have zeroed in on Royal Silver holding the mantle at the head of affairs, closely followed by Moscow Maid, Erin Jo, and Obsidian Dream rounding out the top markers in what shapes as a fascinating fillies and mares clash on the provincial circuit.
Taking a closer look at the form lines for our shorter-priced runners, Royal Silver returns from a thirty-one-week spell for Michael Freedman, armed with Zac Lloyd in the saddle from barrier five and boasting a hot jockey and trainer combination that outperforms market expectations. The daughter of the turf showed plenty of grit during her initial preparation, including a minor placing at Canterbury on debut. Meanwhile, Moscow Maid sits right there in the market for the Hawkes stable, arriving second-up after battling home into third at Warwick Farm over 1100m following a solid effort at Canterbury, suggesting she is ready to peak.
Digging deeper into the yarn, we find runners like Erin Jo stepping out for K A Lees after tackling black-type company in her first preparation, making this a much softer assignment as she returns from a twenty-two-week break. Up on the speed, Royal Silver and Obsidian Dream are mapped to be prominent early alongside Frostisen, while Sheeza Diva looms as the backmarker trying to swallow them up late after clocking the fastest overall finishing sectionals at her latest appearance. It all sets up an intriguing puzzle for punters looking to land a winner on the quick back-up.
Shortest win price
Royal Silver (3)
2.50
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Midfield
Offpace
Onpace
Leader
Sheeza Diva · Positive
Fast Finisher
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Erin Jo · Negative
Current SR
Rider’s recent POT is returning 7% lower than Career Avg.
Royal Silver · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 19% in Last 100 Rides
Obsidian Dream · Negative
Early Sectionals
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Career
18: 1-0-1
Rating · IRD
89
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 1-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Newcastle
1: 0-0-0
Track Randwick
4: 0-0-0
Track Eagle Farm
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
4: 0-0-0
Distance 1800m
4: 0-0-0
Distance 2000m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
11: 0-0-1
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
5: 1-0-0
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 3%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 36%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 50% Profit on Turnover
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Blinkers Off
Positive
Blinkers coming off this start
AAP
Resuming (18-weeks). Comes off a good trial. Can play a role fresh in this line-up.
ILB
Resuming after a break. Odds of $7.00 and folded up in the straight when 10th last start at Hawkesbury. Should improve here and back in an easier grade. Suited against these.
RP
Finished tenth of 12 when dropped to 1m1f at Hawkesbury four months ago in a conditions race; been out of sorts of late and been a while since she managed only win; easy to oppose.
RSIS
First run back after a break. Started at 6/1 and faded away to finish 10th last run at Hawkesbury. Should improve from the last run. Will be motoring home late. Expected to be competitive.
Career
7: 1-1-1
Rating · IRD
85
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
1: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Randwick
1: 0-0-0
Track Randwick Kensington
1: 0-0-1
Track Doomben
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1400m
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1550m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
7: 1-1-1
Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 7% lower than Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -49% POT in their L100 Races
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 19% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 14%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
AAP
Returns for second campaign (22-weeks). Metro winner. Placed at Randwick-Kensington on debut last campaign while trialling 2 times ahead of return. Returns at a much easier level after tackling black-type company in first preparation.
ILB
First up and narrowly denied victory first up last preparation at Newcastle. Has not placed in all trials but competing in an easier class. Should not be left out of your thoughts.
RP
Not disgraced when ninth at Doomben in May in a Group 2; must go on the shortlist if finding her best form and dropping in class.
RSIS
Resuming and narrowly beaten resuming last preparation at Newcastle. Has not placed in all trials but facing a weaker grade. Has a good draw. Back in trip. Forward showing expected.
Career
4: 1-1-0
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Leader
First-up
1: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Randwick Kensington
2: 0-0-0
Track Kembla Grange
1: 1-0-0
Track Canterbury
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1200m
2: 1-1-0
Distance 1250m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-1-0
Going Heavy
1: 1-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 19% in Last 100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 42%
Hot Jockey
Positive
Zac Lloyd in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 22%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Up In Dist
Positive
Racing at a more suitable distance
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Fronting up for second campaign (31-weeks). Gave a fair showing in her first prep. In the minors at Canterbury on debut last campaign while warmed up with 2 trials. Makes strong appeal fresh in this affair.
ILB
First up and produced an eye catching run when 2nd beaten by 3/4L first up last preparation at Canterbury. Jockey Zac Lloyd and trainer Michael Freedman work well together. Highly respected.
RP
Lightly raced (this just her fifth race); beaten 8l in ninth over 7f at Randwick (handicap) in March; plenty of appeal if excused most recent run as achieved maiden success two runs back.
RSIS
Resuming and came on strongly to finish 2nd resuming last preparation at Canterbury. Jockey Zac Lloyd and trainer Michael Freedman are a pair that can't be ignored. Will not be far away.
Career
6: 1-1-0
Rating · IRD
74
Speed map
Leader
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Warwick Farm
1: 0-0-0
Track Gosford
2: 0-0-0
Track Canberra
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1400m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1500m
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 1-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-1-0
Going Good
3: 0-0-0
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Up In Dist
Positive
Racing at a more suitable distance
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Resuming (21-weeks). Went close first-up then consistent through last preparation. Each way fresh in this affair.
ILB
Resuming from spell. At $2.80 didn't threaten when 5th last start at Hawkesbury and coming back in trip. Should muster plenty of early speed. Needs a mighty effort to win this.
RP
Has kicked on in her last couple of races; solid run when fifth at Hawkesbury over 7½f (handicap) in June.
RSIS
Back from a break. Started 9/5 and looked outclassed when 5th last start at Hawkesbury and will be down in distance. Won't be far away during the run.
Career
4: 1-0-1
Rating · IRD
78
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
2: 1-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Randwick Kensington
1: 0-0-0
Track Hawkesbury
1: 1-0-0
Track Canterbury
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1100m
3: 0-0-1
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
3: 1-0-1
Stable In Form
Positive
Stable going well. Out performing market by 32%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 17% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 14%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Ready To Fire
Positive
Shown something in last few runs
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Has done plenty right in short career. Close-up at Canterbury 16 Sep. Fair way from the winner but battled home into third at Warwick Farm. Rates highly.
ILB
Placed 3rd last time at Warwick Farm and facing less formidable opponents. Will be pushing for a forward position early. Producing consistent results this campaign. Small possibility.
RP
Lightly raced with this just her fifth appearance; finished third but wasn't beaten too far (just under 4l) at Warwick Farm over 5½f (handicap) three weeks ago; can be in the thick of things as shown she can win fairly recently.
RSIS
Placed 3rd last run at Warwick Farm and stepping down to a lower level. Has plenty of early pace. Performing impressively since returning from a break.
Career
7: 1-1-0
Rating · IRD
83
Speed map
Leader
First-up
2: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Muswellbrook
1: 0-0-0
Track Wyong
2: 0-1-0
Track CurrentTrack
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1000m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
3: 1-1-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
6: 1-1-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 8%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 24%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 14%
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Last at turn, ran on late at Kembla Grange over this distance. Hard to make a case.
ILB
Edged past some when finishing 5th last run at Kembla Grange and has minimal work to do from the alley. Should be going forward early. Value runner.
RP
Fifth, not beaten that far (28-1) at Kembla Grange three weeks ago.
RSIS
Kept chasing when 5th last run at Kembla Grange and gets a favourable stall. Should muster plenty of early toe. Right in the mix.
Rating · IRD
20
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Primed
Positive
Fitter here racing on a quick back up
AAP
Backing up quickly. Failed to threaten at Mudgee over this trip when fancied. Hard to warm to here.
ILB
On a quick turnaround. Clearly outclassed when 8th last run at Mudgee but gets some weight taken off.
RSIS
On a short turnaround. Mediocre performance when 8th last start at Mudgee but suited by the weight drop.
Career
7: 1-0-0
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 1-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Muswellbrook
2: 0-0-0
Track Nowra
1: 0-0-0
Track Sunshine Coast
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1700m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1280m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
5: 1-0-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -39% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 6% POT in L100 Runners
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Long Break
Negative
Resumes from a 431 day break (> 300 days)
Blinkers Off
Positive
Blinkers coming off this start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Resuming (61-weeks). Lone career win was over 1400m at Bathurst in last campaign. Given two soft trials. Expect will need this off the long spell.
ILB
First up after a break of 61 weeks. At $6.50 didn't find the line when 7th last time at Kilcoy and will be facing a significant drop in distance. This looks a tough assignment.
RP
Not beaten too far when seventh at Kilcoy over 7½f (handicap) last August; long absence to overcome; probably unlikely to trouble the principals.
RSIS
Back from a 61 week break. At 11/2 tailed off to finish 7th last run at Kilcoy and back to a shorter distance.