Shortest win price
Valilee (2)
3.30
Wyong hosts the Klein Tools Evolt Omega Power Provincial over the 1000 metres on a Good 4 track at 4:55 pm AEDT, and it's a proper tussle in the three-year-old and older benchmark 68 company. Valilee heads the market, followed by Emalyn, All The Way Mae and Charlina. The early speed looks well stocked across the board, with three runners sharing the leader's perch and a pair of speedsters just off the pace.
Valilee comes out of the gates as favourite on a hot run that has the combination of jockey Shannen Llewellyn and trainer Jake Hull outperforming market expectations by 51%. The mare won at Newcastle over 900 metres when leading and looking sharp, then made the pace but got caught late over this distance at Warwick Farm in benchmark 72 grade. That form line, combined with her perfect draw in barrier 1, early speed advantage on this circuit, and a proven record as a weight carrier, paints a solid picture. Emalyn sits next in the markets and brings recent form from Newcastle where she won by over a length in benchmark 64 before running second at the same track second-up. She rates 96 in the Independent Rating Diagram and is sharper now after those back-to-back runs. All The Way Mae, resuming after 17 weeks, trialled nicely at Hawkesbury and has been freshened for a step up to 1000 metres, though she's been seen in stronger company. The rating of 86 suggests she warrants attention for a prepared comeback.
Harry The Thief, sitting further back in the market, caught the eye last start with the fastest finishing sectionals of the day and appears to be a quick-closer from midfield with genuine early speed to play with. Charlina is back after 20 weeks and won her barrier trial at Hawkesbury with something to spare, though an eighth at Randwick in benchmark 64 on a soft track suggests that form needs respect. The leaders group — Valilee, Emalyn and Charlina — will command affairs early, with Stratafy and All The Way Mae ready to test from a step back. Valilee's record first-up and second-up, combined with that favoured draw and proven early tempo, makes a case as a starting point, while Emalyn's recent success and rating offer a solid alternative if you fancy a runner with momentum.
Shortest win price
Valilee (2)
3.30
Most career wins
Lady Shenanigans
10-14-8 from 100 starts
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Offmidfield
Midfield
Offpace
Onpace
Leader
Harry The Thief · Positive
Fast Finisher
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Valilee · Positive
Hot J/T Combo
Combo are out performing market expectations by 51%
Stratafy · Positive
Hot J/T Combo
Combo are out performing market expectations by 80%
All The Way Mae · Positive
Hot J/T Combo
Combo are out performing market expectations by 75%
Career
5: 3-0-1
Rating · IRD
88
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
3: 3-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Wyong
2: 1-0-1
Track CurrentTrack
2: 1-0-1
Track Wagga
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
4: 2-0-1
Distance 1100m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
4: 2-0-1
Going Soft
1: 1-0-0
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 15% in Last 100 Rides
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 38%
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Lightly Raced
Positive
Limited race experience but shown potential
Form At Track
Positive
1 time winner here at Wyong
Gap In Runs
Negative
Not raced for 35 days
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Kept fresh. Lightly raced 4yo with share of ability. Let down strongly from midfield to score at Goulburn first up. Among the dangers again.
ILB
Picked up nicely to win last run at Goulburn and have to respect the form at this trip. Shows very good finishing speed. Good career start. Could feature here.
RP
Narrow success in a handicap at Goulburn five weeks ago; winning form over C&D; winner of three of his five career runs; one to take seriously.
RSIS
Ran on hard when winning last time at Goulburn and solid performer at this trip in the past. Has a nice turn of foot. Showing consistent performance in races. Could feature here.
Career
7: 3-2-0
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Leader
First-up
3: 1-1-0
Second-up
2: 1-1-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Hawkesbury
2: 1-1-0
Track Newcastle
1: 0-1-0
Track Warwick Farm
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
5: 2-1-0
Distance 1100m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 900m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
3: 1-1-0
Going Soft
4: 2-1-0
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 51%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Up In Weight
Negative
Goes up 4.5kg weight here
AAP
Made the pace but got a stitch late 3yo+ (Bm72) at Warwick Farm over this journey. High speed, perfect draw and a proven weight carrier. Highly rated.
ILB
Racing on a quick back up. Jumped at $5.00 and tired in the run home when 4th last time at Warwick Farm and ideal trip as proven previously. Will show up at the business end.
RP
Out of the frame (beaten 3½l in fourth, Warwick Farm) a week ago; should be in the mix as has wins in the formbook.
RSIS
On a short back up. At 4/1 started to tire when 4th last time at Warwick Farm and have to respect the form at this trip. Will go close.
Career
20: 4-4-3
Rating · IRD
87
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
5: 1-0-2
Second-up
3: 0-1-0
Third-up
3: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
3: 2-1-0
Track Newcastle
5: 1-0-0
Track Wyong
5: 2-0-1
Track CurrentTrack
5: 2-0-1
Distance 1100m
6: 2-2-0
Distance 1200m
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1250m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
13: 3-3-1
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-1
Going Soft
5: 1-1-1
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 80%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 42% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 14%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Solid run 3yo+ (Bm78) at Gosford 9 May. Never sighted at Newcastle off long spell. Building fitness. Worth another look.
ILB
Started $5.50 and below par when 6th last run at Newcastle. Not at all out of this race.
RP
Beaten 7l into sixth over 4½f at Newcastle (handicap, behind Emalyn) two weeks ago; has scored over C&D; this is her grade; capable if in the mood so could go well.
RSIS
Started at 9/2 and below par when 6th last run at Newcastle. Respect the betting.
Career
8: 3-0-1
Rating · IRD
86
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
3: 1-0-1
Second-up
2: 1-0-0
Third-up
2: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Kembla Grange
4: 1-0-0
Track Rosehill
2: 1-0-0
Track Newcastle
1: 1-0-0
Distance 900m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1000m
5: 1-0-1
Distance 1100m
2: 1-0-0
Going Good
5: 1-0-1
Going Heavy
2: 2-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 75%
Up In Dist
Positive
Racing at a more suitable distance
Form Revival
Positive
Turning form around with last couple
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Resuming (17-weeks). Handy fresh horse while trialling well in the lead-up. Seen in stronger company last campaign. Warrants attention.
ILB
First up and ran home into 3rd beaten by 1 3/4L first up last preparation at Hawkesbury. Taking on a lower class of opponents. Betting is the best guide.
RP
Fifth, beaten less than a length, over 5½f at Rosehill (handicap) in June; has had some time off; in with a big shout as has wins in the formbook.
RSIS
Resuming and did well to place 3rd beaten by 1 3/4L resuming last preparation at Hawkesbury. Stepping down to a lower level. Watch betting.
Career
22: 2-3-5
Rating · IRD
84
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
4: 0-2-1
Second-up
3: 0-0-1
Third-up
3: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
3: 0-1-0
Track Gosford
2: 1-0-0
Track Rosehill
1: 0-0-1
Track Newcastle
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
5: 0-0-3
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 900m
2: 0-0-1
Going Good
9: 0-2-2
Going Heavy
3: 1-0-2
Going Soft
10: 1-1-1
Jockey Booking
Positive
Alysha Collett 23% above market expected in L100 Rides
Key Jockey
Positive
Alysha Collett winning at 14% POT in last 100 rides
AAP
Finished it off only fairly at Moruya. First time around Wyong. Others rate stronger.
ILB
Started $5.00 and didn't threaten when 6th last start at Moruya but up against a less competitive field. Going up in weight.
RP
Solid effort at Moruya 27 days ago.
RSIS
At 4/1 folded up in the straight when 6th last time at Moruya but up against a less challenging field. Has to carry more weight this time.
Career
12: 2-3-2
Rating · IRD
90
Speed map
Leader
First-up
2: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Hawkesbury
2: 0-0-1
Track Kembla Grange
3: 1-1-0
Track Newcastle
2: 0-1-0
Distance 900m
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1000m
9: 2-2-1
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-1
Going Soft
4: 1-0-1
Going Good
5: 1-2-1
Going Heavy
3: 0-1-0
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Increased Dist
Positive
Distance rise from last start
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Resuming (20-weeks). Struck form last campaign. Missed by a bee's lip in Maiden company at Gosford first-up last time in while indicating was forward with an easy trial win at Hawkesbury. Not out of this fresh.
ILB
First up and threw down a serious challenge first up last preparation at Gosford. Has good tactical speed and will be nicely positioned. Good chance of taking this out.
RP
Held when eighth beaten 5l (Randwick) five months ago; returns from an absence here; others more appealing.
RSIS
Resuming and just short of the win resuming last preparation at Gosford. Should race on the pace. Won a trial at Hawkesbury on Oct 20th. Definite claims.
Career
13: 2-4-3
Rating · IRD
96
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
4: 1-1-1
Second-up
3: 0-1-1
Third-up
2: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-1-0
Track Gosford
1: 0-1-0
Track Tuncurry
1: 0-0-1
Track Scone
2: 0-1-0
Distance 900m
2: 1-1-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
4: 0-2-2
Going Good
6: 2-1-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-1
Going Soft
6: 0-3-1
Jockey Booking
Negative
Liberty Smyth current POT is 29% below Career Avg.
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -59% POT in their L100 Races
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Consistent
Positive
Showing up at the business end
AAP
Pretty good effort in defeat at Newcastle second-up. Sharper now, can play a role.
ILB
Rattled home nicely into 2nd beaten by 1 1/2L last run at Newcastle. Displays good tactical speed. Amongst the placegetters at every start this preparation. Well respected contender.
RP
Beaten into runner-up when 2-5 at Newcastle over 4½f (handicap) two weeks ago; achieved each of her two career wins at Newcastle.
RSIS
Made considerable ground when 2nd beaten by 1 1/2L last start at Newcastle. Has shown early pace in races to date. Will show up at the business end.
Career
13: 2-1-1
Rating · IRD
76
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
4: 0-1-0
Second-up
2: 1-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 1-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
4: 2-0-0
Track Gunnedah
1: 0-0-0
Track Port Macquarie
3: 0-0-1
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 900m
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
7: 1-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-1-0
Going Soft
5: 1-0-1
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 6% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 14%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Form At Track
Positive
2 time winner here at Wyong
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Never a threat after showing no early speed from the barriers at Newcastle after lengthy absence. Not fancied.
ILB
Started at $31.00 and sub-standard effort when 8th last start at Newcastle but can find a nice position from the draw. Rough chance today.
RP
A course winner; held at Newcastle 26 days ago by Emalyn when beaten 7l over 4½f (handicap); others appeal more.
RSIS
Started 30/1 and fairly underwhelming when 8th last run at Newcastle but has a good draw.
Rating · IRD
20
AAP
Made late rally from the back at Hawkesbury. Awkwardly drawn. Others carry more punch.
ILB
Outpaced some runners late when 4th last start at Hawkesbury.
RSIS
Improved when 4th last start at Hawkesbury.
Rating · IRD
78
Speed map
Backmarker
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -34% POT in their L100 Races
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 38%
Drawn Poorly
Negative
Unfavourable barrier draw
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Now 4 weeks between runs. Made late rally from the back at Port Macquarie. Has a tricky draw. Keener on others.
ILB
Started at $21.00 and made ground when closing off to finish 4th last start at Port Macquarie. Does take a while to get into stride. Prefer in an easier race.
RP
Posted respectable effort when beaten 2l back down to this distance at Port Macquarie last month.
RSIS
At 20/1 made up ground when 4th last time at Port Macquarie. Gets back and needs luck.
Career
38: 5-2-4
Rating · IRD
76
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
6: 1-1-0
Second-up
5: 0-0-1
Third-up
3: 2-0-0
Fourth-up
3: 0-0-1
Track Quirindi
1: 0-0-1
Track Taree
8: 2-1-0
Track Newcastle
12: 0-0-3
Distance 1312m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1350m
6: 1-0-0
Distance 1010m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
18: 1-1-4
Going Heavy
7: 2-0-0
Going Soft
13: 2-1-0
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 105%
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Performance just fair at Port Macquarie over this trip at $11. Distant place hope only.
ILB
Jumped at $11.00 and folded up in the straight when 6th last start at Port Macquarie.
RP
Not beaten that far in sixth (just under 4l) at Port Macquarie (dropped to this trip) three weeks ago; possesses winning form at this track; others appeal more.
RSIS
At 10/1 looked outclassed when 6th last start at Port Macquarie.
Career
19: 2-0-1
Rating · IRD
75
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
4: 0-0-0
Second-up
3: 1-0-0
Third-up
3: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Hawkesbury
2: 1-0-0
Track Taree
2: 1-0-0
Track Scone
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
3: 0-0-1
Distance 1250m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1500m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
6: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
3: 0-0-1
Going Soft
10: 2-0-0
Trainer Form
Positive
In form stable, out performing market expectations 58%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 44% POT in L100 Runners
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
AAP
Resuming (20-weeks). Usually needs the run and this is short of optimum. Down on form last prep and prefer to see fresh.
ILB
Back from a break. At $20.00 lost ground in the run home when 8th last start at Newcastle and down in trip. Might be ridden for luck. Needs significant improvement.
RP
Recent form hardly the most inspiring; finished eighth, beaten 7l, over 1m at Newcastle (handicap) in June; returns from a layoff; others have more pressing claims.
RSIS
First run back after a break. Started 19/1 and faded away to finish 8th last start at Newcastle and dropping in distance. Might be ridden for luck.
Career
100: 10-14-8
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
4: 0-1-0
Second-up
3: 1-0-1
Third-up
3: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
3: 0-0-0
Track Taree
2: 1-1-0
Track CurrentTrack
7: 0-1-1
Track Gosford
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
10: 2-2-0
Distance 1005m
1: 0-1-0
Going Soft
34: 7-3-7
Going Good
49: 1-5-1
Going Heavy
17: 2-6-0
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 3%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -50% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 36%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 50% Profit on Turnover
Wide Draw
Negative
Likely to get caught wide
Form At Track
Negative
Yet to win here
Blinkers On
Positive
Trainer has opted for the Blinkers on, take note
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Ordinary performance in small field at Nowra. Drops to shorter trip. Hard to make a case.
ILB
Started $41.00 and weakened to finish 7th last start at Nowra. Blinkers go on for the first time. Not interested.
RP
Finished last of seven over 6f at Nowra (handicap) 11 days ago; has proven competitive in a race of this nature.
RSIS
Started 40/1 and didn't find the line when 7th last run at Nowra. Interesting gear change of blinkers on first time.