Shortest win price
Charming Deel (2)
1.75
Warrnambool hosts the Nevcon Structural Steel over 1700 metres this afternoon at 5:30 pm AEDT, a benchmark 62 handicap for three-year-olds and upward on a Good 4 track under overcast skies. The win market is led by Charming Deel, with Super Snitch next, followed by Catch The Moon and Vizie. This looks a race where early position might matter — Charming Deel sets the pace as a leader, while Super Snitch sits midfield and the bulk of the field operates offpace or further back.
Charming Deel carries the shortest odds and does the heavy lifting up front, with Holly Durnan aboard and the booking angle worth noting — Durnan is running 23 per cent above market expectations in her last 100 rides. The mare's record reads 24 starts for four wins and five placings, and she struck second-up previously; last time out she was fourth at Geelong over 1447 metres on a Soft 5, though she'd run fifth here at 1400 metres on Good 4 two starts prior. The comment flags her pace and courage in defeat, which aligns with the leader role. Super Snitch is next best and runs for the sharp P W Mckenna stable — Mckenna is performing 33 per cent above market and the jockey-trainer combo of Brad Rawiller and Mckenna are outperforming expectations by 101 per cent. Snitch won last start over 1400 metres at this track and the form line suggests he's genuine, though he didn't fly second-up earlier this prep. Catch The Moon sits third in the market and has dropped back in class, a positive signal; sent out at long odds at Geelong when out of form after a spell, the horse should strip in better shape and can play a role from barrier five.
Vizie runs fourth in the market but is genuinely hard to warm to after a long drought without a win — the comment is plain on that front. Further down, Spanish Snitzel and Kate Walters form a combo running 94 per cent ahead of market, a profile worth monitoring from barrier four. The angles suggest both Charming Deel and Super Snitch hold genuine appeal, but the yarn here favours tracking the market order and keeping an eye on whether Catch The Moon has genuinely found a suitable platform to execute.
Shortest win price
Charming Deel (2)
1.75
Most career wins
Super Snitch and Spanish Snitzel
6 each
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Offmidfield
Midfield
Offpace
Onpace
Leader
Super Snitch · Positive
Hot J/T Combo
Combo are out performing market expectations by 101%
Charming Deel · Positive
Rider SR
Jockey recent POT is 25% better than Career Avg.
Catch The Moon · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -20% POT in their L100 Races
The Daily Planet · Positive
Draw Suits
Well drawn inside
Career
43: 6-4-6
Rating · IRD
80
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
6: 0-1-1
Second-up
5: 2-1-0
Third-up
5: 1-1-1
Fourth-up
4: 1-0-1
Track Dunkeld
1: 0-0-1
Track Hamilton
3: 0-0-0
Track Terang
5: 1-0-1
Distance 1400m
10: 2-1-1
Distance 1523m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1606m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
25: 6-3-2
Going Heavy
6: 0-0-1
Going Soft
12: 0-1-3
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 101%
Hot Trainer
Positive
Patrick McKenna in good form, out performing market 33%
Up In Dist
Positive
Racing at a more suitable distance
Imprv Needed
Negative
Would need to lift here to feature
AAP
Got back and wasn't totally disgraced this track. Each-way.
ILB
Backing up quickly. At $20.00 below par when 10th last time at this venue. Likely to get back in the field. Slim possibilty.
RP
A winner over C&D; this is his grade; finished tenth but wasn't beaten too far (3½l) here over 7f (handicap) last week; shown he can be competitive fairly recently and has a shout.
RSIS
Backing up quickly. Odds of 19/1 and had difficulty when 10th last start at the track. Will be giving the leaders a big start.
Career
24: 4-5-1
Rating · IRD
97
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
4: 0-1-0
Second-up
3: 1-0-0
Third-up
3: 0-1-1
Fourth-up
2: 1-0-0
Track Pakenham
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
3: 0-2-0
Track Sandown
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1700m
2: 1-1-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
5: 1-1-0
Going Synthetic
3: 0-1-1
Going Good
14: 3-1-0
Going Heavy
2: 0-2-0
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 25% better than Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Positive
Holly Durnan 23% above market expected in L100 Rides
Up In Dist
Positive
Racing at a more suitable distance
AAP
On pace and courageous in defeat this track. Gets a handy claim and commands attention.
ILB
On a quick turnaround. At $3.40 outmuscled in the final stages of the race when 5th last start at this track. Has the speed to overcome the wide barrier. Strong prospects.
RP
Consistent performer and can be a player at this level; ran a bit below expectations (sent off 12-5) when fifth over 7f here (handicap) with Vizie and Super Snitch behind a week ago; a big player if finding her best form.
RSIS
On a quick turnaround. Odds of 12/5 and outmuscled in the run home when 5th last time at this venue. Win will not surprise.
Career
5: 1-1-0
Rating · IRD
84
Speed map
Leader
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-0
Track Mornington
1: 1-0-0
Track Bendigo
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1850m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
4: 1-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-1-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -20% POT in their L100 Races
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Sent out $26 when unable to threaten at Geelong off long spell. Strips in better shape. Can play a role.
ILB
Started $26.00 and weakened under pressure when 8th last run at Geelong. Shows good early pace. Do not dismiss entirely.
RP
Held when eighth of 11 at Geelong over 7f (handicap) last month; chance given that not many of these impressed last time out and he was successful three starts back.
RSIS
Was 25/1 and weakened to finish 8th last time at Geelong. Will be positive in the run early.
Career
34: 4-3-6
Rating · IRD
85
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
4: 0-0-1
Second-up
3: 0-0-0
Third-up
3: 1-0-1
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-1
Track Geelong
4: 1-0-1
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-0-0
Track Terang
3: 1-0-1
Distance 1606m
2: 1-0-1
Distance 1800m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
4: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-1
Going Soft
11: 1-1-2
Going Good
22: 3-2-3
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Form At Track
Negative
Yet to win here
Weight Drop
Positive
Drops 10kg from LS run
AAP
Started $8 when safely held in Benchmark 62 company this track over this distance. Back from highweight company. Can challenge.
ILB
Backs up quickly. At $8.00 came in 7th last start around here but can find a nice position from the draw. Facing a stronger group of contenders. Can surprise at a nice price.
RP
Came home seventh a week ago in race won by Parkrun when not disgraced upped to this distance; not really built on success in a handicap in April at Geelong; passed over.
RSIS
Backs up quickly. Started 7/1 and ran 7th last start at this venue but drawn nicely. Taking on stronger competition.
Career
15: 2-2-2
Rating · IRD
79
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-1-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Wyong
1: 0-0-0
Track St Arnaud
1: 0-0-0
Track Tamworth
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1350m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
4: 0-1-0
Distance 1500m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
5: 1-1-1
Going Heavy
3: 0-0-1
Going Soft
7: 1-1-0
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Trainer SR
Negative
Peter Chow striking at just 8%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -23% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 21%
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 1
Weight Drop
Positive
Drops 8kg from LS run
AAP
Midfield, overhauled them for a strong win this venue over today's trip. This is stronger but is in winning form.
ILB
On a quick back up. Reeled them in when winning last start at this track and drawn well. Likely to get back. Competing at a higher grade. Hard to warm to.
RP
Gained narrow success in a handicap eight days ago upped to this trip; passed over despite that win last time.
RSIS
On a quick back up. Reeled them in to win last run at this track and gets the perfect stall. Likely to get back in the field.
Career
11: 2-0-0
Rating · IRD
84
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Seymour
2: 0-0-0
Track Echuca
1: 1-0-0
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1422m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1425m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
6: 2-0-0
Going Heavy
3: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Got up in final strides at Bendigo. Capable of figuring again.
ILB
Ran on hard when winning last time at Bendigo but racing against tougher rivals. Place at best.
RP
Landed a narrow success in a handicap at Bendigo three weeks ago, returning to winning ways; could be in the mix.
RSIS
Was eating up the ground late when winning last time at Bendigo but facing stiffer opposition.
Career
15: 2-2-1
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
3: 0-0-1
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-1-0
Track Morphettville
1: 0-0-0
Track Bendigo
1: 0-0-0
Track Ararat
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1550m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2000m
2: 1-0-0
Going Heavy
4: 1-1-1
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
9: 1-1-0
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 8%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 41%
Well beaten LS
Negative
Not competitive last run
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Has solid form this track and trip. Can put last run behind her.
ILB
At $6.00 not up to scratch when 12th last start at Morphettville. Happy to forgive that run. Will attract plenty of interest.
RP
Finished towards the rear of 14 (Morphettville) four weeks ago upped to 1m2f; probably unlikely to trouble the principals.
RSIS
Started at 5/1 and well beaten when 12th last time at Morphettville. Capable of bouncing back. Worth a lot of thought in this race.
Career
32: 3-4-6
Rating · IRD
89
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
6: 1-0-0
Second-up
3: 0-0-1
Third-up
2: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-1
Track Edenhope
1: 1-0-0
Track Mornington
1: 0-0-0
Track Warrnambool
3: 0-1-1
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1457m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 2025m
2: 0-1-0
Going Good
24: 0-3-5
Going Heavy
1: 1-0-0
Going Soft
6: 2-1-1
Trainer SR
Negative
Chris Calthorpe striking at just 2%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -58% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 55%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 58% Profit on Turnover
AAP
Long time since last saluted. Hard to warm to.
ILB
On a short back up. Didn't find the line when 9th last run here. Respect the betting.
RP
Not disgraced when ninth of 14 over 7f here (handicap) last week; makes limited appeal.
RSIS
On a short turnaround. Looked outclassed when 9th last time at this venue. Watch for a sign in the market.
Career
10: 1-0-1
Rating · IRD
83
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
4: 1-0-0
Second-up
3: 0-0-1
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Sandown
1: 0-0-0
Track Wodonga
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1612m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1854m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2015m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
7: 0-0-1
Going Heavy
1: 1-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 30% in Last 100 Rides
Key Rider
Positive
Dean Yendall 33% above market expected in L100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 326%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 24% POT in L100 Runners
Hot Jockey
Positive
Dean Yendall in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 33%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
On pace before tiring in the run home at Wodonga second-up. Coming back in distance. Looking elsewhere.
ILB
Started $6.00 and weakened to finish 8th last run at Wodonga and facing formidable opponents. Jockey Dean Yendall and trainer Toby Lake work well together. Potential to run into a place.
RP
Hasn't won for a while; beaten a fair way when eighth over 1m2f at Wodonga (handicap) three weeks ago; passed over.
RSIS
Started 5/1 and tailed off to finish 8th last time at Wodonga and up against a higher level of opposition.
Career
12: 1-1-0
Rating · IRD
72
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
3: 0-1-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Warrnambool
2: 1-1-0
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-0-0
Track Naracoorte
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2025m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1800m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1850m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
10: 1-1-0
Jockey Booking
Negative
Christine Puls current POT is 64% below Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 75% in L100 rides
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Track Stats
Positive
Excels at this track
Fitness
Positive
At peak fitness backing up
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Backing up quickly. Failed to threaten at Wycheproof second-up. Form falls short of this.
ILB
Backing up quickly for this race. At $12.00 looked outclassed when 8th last time at Wycheproof and competing in a higher grade. Will appreciate the drop in weight. Very unlikely.
RP
Last of eight over 1m1f at Wycheproof (handicap) on Saturday; has winning C&D form to his name; not really built on success in a maiden New Year's Eve at Warrnambool; easy enough to take on.
RSIS
Backing up quickly for this race. At 11/1 was well beaten when 8th last time at Wycheproof and facing a stronger group of contenders. Dropping weight.
Career
83: 6-7-7
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
8: 0-1-0
Second-up
7: 0-0-2
Third-up
7: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
7: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat
4: 0-0-1
Track Warrnambool
14: 0-0-1
Track Casterton
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
4: 1-0-0
Distance 1550m
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1564m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
40: 0-3-4
Going Heavy
20: 2-2-2
Going Soft
19: 3-1-1
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 27% in Last 100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 94%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 14% POT in L100 Runners
Needs To Imp
Negative
Finished towards the tail last start
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Track And Dist
Negative
Has a poor record at this track and trip
Form At Track
Negative
Yet to win here
Long Prep
Negative
Yet to find the winners stall this prep
AAP
Old stager struggling to recapture best form. Failed to flatter this track over this trip. Hard to make a case.
ILB
Odds of $101.00 and was well beaten when 12th last run here. Struggle to recommend.
RP
Finished towards the rear of 13 upped to this distance last month; quite a while since he tasted success; hard enough to fancy.
RSIS
Odds of 100/1 and folded up in the straight when 12th last time here.