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Warrnambool (VIC) horses tips & previews

One race at a time: field, form guide and win/place odds for Warrnambool (VIC), with capture times on every price.

Meeting — Fri 6 Nov, 11:00 am AEDT

Meetings · Fri, 6 NovWarrnambool (VIC)Change

Race 2 — Warrnambool Sheetmetal (Bm66) 1400m · jumps

Race preview

Welcome to Warrnambool for the Warrnambool Sheetmetal BM66 over the 1400m on a good4 track under overcast skies, where a competitive field of provincial gallopers steps out. Looking at the early win market order, punters have zeroed in on Seethru sitting right at the head of affairs, closely followed by Racey Casey and Till Queen next in line, with Il Cielo rounding out the tighter quotes before we get out to the longer odds. It is shaping up as a fascinating tactical battle across the 1400m chute as the field sorts their early positions.

Digging into the form lines behind those shorter prices, Seethru jumps from barrier 4 with Neil Farley steering for trainer Josh Cartwright, resuming here after a twenty-two-week break following a solid recent Geelong jumpout and boasting a win at this very track previously. Racey Casey draws barrier 6 for trainer Jamie Edwards with Dean Yendall taking the mount, coming off a Cranbourne run where things got tough in tougher company, suggesting this class drop could spark a sharp improvement. Till Queen comes in from barrier 5 for Archie Alexander with Holly Durnan claiming a handy three kilos, packing a Bendigo win over further before a brief let-up.

As for the remaining runners and speed map angles, Seethru maps to roll forward as the lone leader, while Till Queen, Racey Casey, and Frosty Night look set to park right on the pace. Il Cielo handles an offmidfield lane from barrier 3 for the C Maher yard, while further down the market order we find runners like Salsbury Hill who will look to weave from the backmarker role. It all sets up a ripping yarn for punters trying to unravel a tricky Warrnambool puzzle.

Race notes

  • 3UP BM66 HCP,3yo+,BM66,Benchmark 66
  • GOOD4
  • Overcast
  • 7 runners

Shortest win price

Seethru (2)

2.60

Most career wins

Salsbury Hill

7-8-5 from 67 starts

Speed map

Back left · leaders right

Backmarker

  • 6Salsbury Hill

Offpace

  • 3Till Queen
  • 5Racey Casey
  • 1Il Cielo

Onpace

  • 7Frosty Night

Leader

  • 4Fully Justified
  • 2Seethru

  • Il Cielo · Negative

    Cold J/T Combo

    Combo are losing -20% POT in their L100 Races

  • Seethru · Positive

    Hot J/T Combo

    Combo are out performing market expectations by 512%

  • Till Queen · Positive

    Jockey ROI

    Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 25% in Last 100 Rides

  • Fully Justified · Negative

    Cold J/T Combo

    Combo are losing -20% POT in their L100 Races

No.RunnerBarWgtLast 5WinPlace
1Il CieloJ: Zac Moore·T: C Maher361kg1 2 4 1 822: 4-5-4$14.00$4.20

Career

22: 4-5-4

Rating · IRD

77

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey50%
  • Trainer80%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo60%
  • Early Speed100%
  • Rating50%
  • Closing Speed80%

Record

  • First-up

    2: 0-0-0

  • Second-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Third-up

    1: 1-0-0

  • Fourth-up

    1: 0-1-0

  • Track Wangaratta

    1: 1-0-0

  • Track Mildura

    1: 0-1-0

  • Track Ballarat

    3: 0-0-1

  • Distance 1209m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1400m

    3: 0-1-2

  • Distance 1443m

    3: 1-1-0

  • Going Good

    17: 4-4-3

  • Going Heavy

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Soft

    4: 0-1-1

Last starts

  1. 8Ballarat1500m24 May 2026 · 2UP BM62 HCP · GOOD48.6L
  2. 1Geelong1443m1 May 2026 · 2UP BM62 HCP · GOOD4-0.8
  3. 4Geelong1512m10 Apr 2026 · BM56 · SOFT51.8L
  4. 2Ararat1606m30 Mar 2026 · BM56 · GOOD31.3L
  5. 1Geelong1535m22 Mar 2026 · BM56 · GOOD4-0.8
  6. 3Echuca1600m8 Mar 2026 · BM56 · GOOD44.3L
  7. 2Werribee1600m17 Feb 2026 · 3UP BM56 HCP · GOOD40.8L
  8. 1Seymour1600m3 Feb 2026 · BM56 · GOOD3-2.3

Insights

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -20% POT in their L100 Races

  • Maps Well

    Positive

    Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 8%

  • Fast Early

    Positive

    Sectionals suggest goes hard early

  • Resuming

    Negative

    Poor strike rate when first up

  • Blinkers Off

    Positive

    Blinkers coming off this start

  • Class Rise

    Negative

    Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

First-up (23-weeks). Resumes without a trial or jumpout. Handy form when last seen and could show up fresh.

ILB

First up today. Jumped at $5.50 and mediocre display when 8th last run at Ballarat. Looks hopeful at best.

RP

Was eighth of 11, beaten 9l, at Ballarat over 7½f (handicap) in May; he meets the required standard ability wise; can be in the thick of things given he won a handicap two runs back.

RSIS

First run back from a break. Was 9/2 and moderate showing when 8th last run at Ballarat.

2SeethruJ: Neil Farley·T: Josh Cartwright459.5kg3 1 4 9 511: 2-2-2$2.60$1.38

Career

11: 2-2-2

Rating · IRD

84

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey60%
  • Trainer80%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
  • Early Speed100%
  • Rating50%
  • Closing Speed50%

Record

  • First-up

    3: 1-0-1

  • Second-up

    2: 0-0-0

  • Third-up

    2: 0-1-0

  • Track Werribee

    1: 1-0-0

  • Track Warrnambool

    1: 1-0-0

  • Track Cranbourne

    2: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1700m

    1: 1-0-0

  • Distance 1741m

    1: 0-0-1

  • Distance 1600m

    3: 0-1-0

  • Going Good

    7: 2-2-1

  • Going Soft

    4: 0-0-1

Last starts

  1. 5Caulfield Heath1000m1 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)2.6L
  2. 9Swan Hill1600m5 June 2026 · BM70 · SOFT65.3L
  3. 4Pakenham1400m15 May 2026 · 2UP BM66 HCP · SOFT52.9L
  4. 1Werribee1425m24 Apr 2026 · 3UP BM56 HCP · GOOD4-2.5
  5. 3Geelong1741m12 Dec 2025 · 3yo+ · GOOD31.2L
  6. 6Geelong1514m26 Nov 2025 · 3UP BM66 HCP · GOOD32.17L
  7. 2Sandown1800m1 Oct 2025 · 3UP BM66 HCP · GOOD41.8L
  8. 2Sandown1600m10 Sept 2025 · 3yo+ · GOOD40.1L

Insights

  • Hot J/T Combo

    Positive

    Combo are out performing market expectations by 512%

  • Tricky Map

    Negative

    Runners with this map, underperform market by 8%

  • Slow Early LS

    Negative

    Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg

  • Up In Dist

    Positive

    Racing at a more suitable distance

  • Track Exp

    Positive

    Knows this track well

  • Resuming

    Negative

    Poor strike rate when first up

  • Blinkers Off

    Positive

    Blinkers coming off this start

  • Well Placed

    Positive

    Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Resuming (22-weeks). Strong SP profile and recent Geelong jumpout was solid. Won only other time at Warrnambool. Plenty to like.

ILB

First up from a break of 22 weeks and ran home strongly to win first up last preparation at Werribee. Should be going forward early. Gets a chance against these.

RP

Beaten ninth of 13 over 1m at Swan Hill (handicap) in June; has won at this course; can be a player at this level; poses a threat as shown he can get his head in front.

RSIS

Resuming and strong effort to the line to win resuming last preparation at Werribee. Should muster plenty of early toe. Strong claims in this.

3Till QueenJ: Holly Durnan·T: Archie Alexander559kg6 2 1 1 510: 3-2-0$4.40$2.15

Career

10: 3-2-0

Rating · IRD

86

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey100%
  • Trainer80%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
  • Early Speed20%
  • Rating50%
  • Closing Speed40%

Record

  • First-up

    2: 0-0-0

  • Second-up

    1: 0-1-0

  • Third-up

    1: 1-0-0

  • Fourth-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Bendigo

    1: 1-0-0

  • Track Terang

    1: 0-1-0

  • Track Sandown

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1400m

    3: 1-1-0

  • Distance 1406m

    1: 0-1-0

  • Distance 1500m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Good

    6: 2-2-0

  • Going Soft

    4: 1-0-0

Last starts

  1. 5Caulfield Heath1500m17 June 2026 · 3YF BM70 · SOFT62.8L
  2. 1Bendigo1600m29 May 2026 · 2UP BM62 HCP · GOOD4-0.2
  3. 1Echuca1600m11 May 2026 · 2UP BM56 HCP · SOFT5-1.5
  4. 2Cranbourne1400m24 Apr 2026 · Benchmark 62 · GOOD40.4L
  5. 6Sandown1400m25 Mar 2026 · 3YF BM64 · SOFT55.8L
  6. 1Warrnambool1400m9 Mar 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · GOOD4-0.1
  7. 2Terang1406m20 Feb 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · GOOD40.8L
  8. 5Seymour1200m3 Feb 2026 · MDN-SW · GOOD32.6L

Insights

  • Jockey ROI

    Positive

    Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 25% in Last 100 Rides

  • Key Rider

    Positive

    Holly Durnan 23% above market expected in L100 Rides

  • Hot J/T Combo

    Positive

    Combo are out performing market expectations by 215%

  • Track Exp

    Positive

    Knows this track well

  • Resuming

    Negative

    Poor strike rate when first up

  • Well Placed

    Positive

    Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Resuming (20-weeks). Ran a distant third in latest Horsham jumpout. Ticks the track and distance win box and takes a nice claim. May need this.

ILB

Back from a break. Started $6.00 and weakened to finish 5th last run at Caulfield Heath. May see an upturn in form. Contender at a nice price.

RP

Likes this combination of C&D; grade looks suitable; respectable effort (beaten just under 3l) over 7½f at Caulfield (handicap) in June; every chance as does have winning form.

RSIS

Back from a break. Odds of 5/1 and gave away some ground when 5th last time at Caulfield Heath. Has the talent to rebound quickly. Good prospects.

4Fully JustifiedJ: Cian Macredmond·T: C Maher157kg7 1 11 2 66: 1-1-0$21.00$6.00

Career

6: 1-1-0

Rating · IRD

76

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey50%
  • Trainer80%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo60%
  • Early Speed20%
  • Rating50%
  • Closing Speed40%

Record

  • First-up

    2: 0-1-0

  • Second-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Ballarat

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Warrnambool

    2: 0-1-0

  • Track CurrentTrack

    2: 0-1-0

  • Distance 1400m

    3: 0-1-0

  • Distance 1600m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1800m

    1: 1-0-0

  • Going Good

    6: 1-1-0

Last starts

  1. 6Warrnambool1400m15 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD47.97L
  2. 2Warrnambool1400m21 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD41.75L
  3. 11Ballarat2042m20 Mar 2026 · 0 - 62 · GOOD321.9L
  4. 1Horsham1800m24 Feb 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD3-1
  5. 7Colac1600m6 Feb 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD43L
  6. 6Camperdown1400m17 Jan 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD33.9L

Insights

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -20% POT in their L100 Races

  • Maps Well

    Positive

    Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 8%

  • Drawn In

    Positive

    Suited drawn down low

  • Class Rise

    Negative

    Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Failed to threaten this venue second-up after a market ease. Hard fit now and ready to peak.

ILB

Jumped at $10.00 and didn't find the line when 6th last start here but drawn the rails. Displays good tactical speed. Would be more keen on the chance of others.

RP

Held in sixth last month; should give it a bold bid if duplicating the form of his most recent win.

RSIS

Odds of 9/1 and folded up in the straight when 6th last time around here but has the ideal stall. Will be pushing for a forward position early.

5Racey CaseyJ: Dean Yendall·T: Jamie Edwards655.5kg6 1 2 4 519: 2-5-1$2.65$1.45

Career

19: 2-5-1

Rating · IRD

100

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey100%
  • Trainer80%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
  • Early Speed100%
  • Rating50%
  • Closing Speed80%

Record

  • First-up

    2: 0-1-0

  • Second-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Third-up

    1: 0-1-0

  • Fourth-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Geelong

    2: 0-1-0

  • Track Kilmore

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Sale

    2: 0-2-0

  • Distance 1112m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1300m

    3: 0-1-0

  • Distance 1325m

    1: 0-1-0

  • Going Good

    9: 1-2-0

  • Going Heavy

    3: 0-1-0

  • Going Soft

    6: 1-1-1

Last starts

  1. 5Cranbourne1400m23 Oct 2026 · HCP · GOOD35.77L
  2. 4Ballarat1400m9 Oct 2026 · 3UP BM62 HCP · GOOD41.42L
  3. 2Coleraine1300m25 Sept 2026 · 3UP BM66 HCP · GOOD31L
  4. 1Hamilton1400m14 Sept 2026 · 3UP BM56 HCP · SOFT6-2.3
  5. 6Seymour1200m27 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · HEAVY83.9L
  6. 2Geelong1325m14 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · HEAVY83L
  7. 4Sandown1300m22 July 2026 · Benchmark 66 · SOFT65L
  8. 2Pakenham Synthetic1100m29 June 2026 · BM62 · SYNTHETIC1.3L

Insights

  • Rider SR

    Positive

    Jockey recent POT is 30% better than Career Avg.

  • Jockey Booking

    Positive

    Dean Yendall 33% above market expected in L100 Rides

  • Key Jockey

    Positive

    Dean Yendall winning at 20% POT in last 100 rides

  • Fast Early

    Positive

    Sectionals suggest goes hard early

  • Well beaten LS

    Negative

    Not competitive last run

  • Well Placed

    Positive

    Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Sent back to last and safely held in the VOBIS Gold Star at Cranbourne. This is much easier. Makes a strong case in this company.

ILB

Kept chasing when 5th last time at Cranbourne and lining up against easier rivals. Terrific hope.

RP

Fifth of six beaten 6l (Cranbourne) 14 days ago; passed over.

RSIS

Picked up some ground to run 5th last run at Cranbourne and will appreciate the drop in class. Strong contender.

6Salsbury HillJ: Kate Walters·T: Wayne Walters255.5kg4 2 5 5 567: 7-8-5$26.00$7.00

Career

67: 7-8-5

Rating · IRD

74

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey100%
  • Trainer100%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
  • Early Speed100%
  • Rating50%
  • Closing Speed100%

Record

  • First-up

    4: 0-0-0

  • Second-up

    3: 0-0-0

  • Third-up

    3: 0-2-0

  • Fourth-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Casterton

    4: 0-1-0

  • Track Murtoa

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Traralgon

    2: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1100m

    2: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1430m

    6: 0-2-0

  • Distance 1550m

    7: 2-1-2

  • Going Heavy

    13: 1-2-0

  • Going Soft

    22: 1-2-2

  • Going Good

    32: 5-4-3

Last starts

  1. 5Penola1400m16 Oct 2026 · BM68 · SOFT52.18L
  2. 5Mount Gambier1200m20 Sept 2026 · BM66 · SOFT52.93L
  3. 5Casterton1400m5 July 2026 · BM62 · HEAVY84.9L
  4. 2Casterton1400m7 June 2026 · BM62 · HEAVY80.5L
  5. 4Mount Gambier1550m22 May 2026 · BLUE LAKE · SOFT76L
  6. 4Casterton1400m17 May 2026 · BM66 · SOFT63.8L
  7. 12Warrnambool1400m7 May 2026 · 2UP F&M BM70 HCP · HEAVY104.1L
  8. 4Terang1400m12 Apr 2026 · 3UP BM66 HCP · HEAVY109.2L

Insights

  • Rider SR

    Positive

    Jockey recent POT is 27% better than Career Avg.

  • Profitable Trainer

    Positive

    Stable runners going at 19% POT in L100 Runners

  • Tricky Map

    Negative

    Runners with this map, underperform market by 4%

  • Slow Early LS

    Negative

    Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg

  • Ran On Hard LS

    Positive

    Ran on well last start

  • Nice Barrier

    Positive

    Well drawn from gate 2

  • Track And Dist

    Negative

    Has a poor record at this track and trip

  • Form At Track

    Negative

    Yet to win here

Comments

AAP

Remains unplaced from 6 starts here. This is more demanding.

ILB

Started at $14.00 and was making up some late ground when 5th last run at Penola and will try to take advantage of the barrier. Might be ridden for luck. Have to look elsewhere.

RP

Finished fifth but only beaten just over 2l at Penola last month; others appeal more as not in the habit of winning recently.

RSIS

Odds of 13/1 and made up ground when 5th last time at Penola and has a good draw. Might have to make up considerable ground.

7Frosty NightJ: Amy Herrmann·T: Jamie Barry754.5kg10 5 4 1 1243: 4-2-8$20.00$5.50

Career

43: 4-2-8

Rating · IRD

70

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey20%
  • Trainer100%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
  • Early Speed100%
  • Rating50%
  • Closing Speed20%

Record

  • First-up

    4: 0-0-0

  • Second-up

    3: 0-0-1

  • Third-up

    3: 0-1-0

  • Fourth-up

    3: 0-0-2

  • Track Naracoorte

    2: 0-0-0

  • Track Ballarat

    2: 0-0-0

  • Track Warrnambool

    7: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1100m

    8: 0-0-2

  • Distance 1300m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1200m

    8: 2-2-1

  • Going Synthetic

    2: 0-0-1

  • Going Good

    20: 2-0-4

  • Going Heavy

    9: 1-2-0

Last starts

  1. 12Warrnambool1400m29 Oct 2026 · 3UP BM62 HCP · GOOD44.54L
  2. 1Hamilton1400m10 Oct 2026 · 0 - 56 · SOFT5-0.4
  3. 4Coleraine1600m25 Sept 2026 · 0 - 56 · GOOD30.87L
  4. 5Hamilton1400m14 Sept 2026 · 3UP BM56 HCP · SOFT64.7L
  5. 10Warrnambool1400m3 Sept 2026 · 3UP BM62 HCP · HEAVY826L
  6. 6Warrnambool1100m20 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · HEAVY108.5L
  7. 9Mount Gambier1200m7 Aug 2026 · BM62 · HEAVY1011.8L
  8. 10Warrnambool1100m23 July 2026 · 2yo+ · HEAVY1024.1L

Insights

  • Current SR

    Negative

    Rider’s recent POT is returning 23% lower than Career Avg.

  • Hot J/T Combo

    Positive

    Combo are out performing market expectations by 62%

  • Hot Trainer

    Positive

    Jamie Barry in good form, out performing market 45%

  • Trainer ROI

    Positive

    Runners from this stable currently going at 35% POT in L100 Runners

  • Rider Poor SR

    Negative

    Jockey underperforming market expectations by 41% in L100 rides

  • Early Splits

    Positive

    Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit

  • Track And Dist

    Negative

    Has a poor record at this track and trip

  • Form At Track

    Negative

    Yet to win here

Comments

AAP

Likely leader here. Fit from racing, could spring a surprise.

ILB

On a short turnaround. Started at $41.00 and struggled with the pace when 12th last time here. Shows good early pace. Will need its best to find a place.

RP

Towards the rear of 14 a week ago; makes limited appeal.

RSIS

On a short back up. At 40/1 lost ground in the run home when 12th last time at this track. Has shown early pace in races to date.

Odds correct as at . Odds can change.

Past meetings

  • Thu 29 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 8 races
  • Thu 15 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 8 races
  • Thu 1 Oct, 10:00 am AEST · 8 races
  • Mon 21 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 8 races
  • Thu 3 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 8 races