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Warrnambool (VIC) horses tips & previews

One race at a time: field, form guide and win/place odds for Warrnambool (VIC), with capture times on every price.

Meeting — Fri 6 Nov, 11:00 am AEDT

Meetings · Fri, 6 NovWarrnambool (VIC)Change

Race 3 — Warrnambool Football & Netball Club Mdn Plate 1200m · jumps

Race preview

Warrnambool hosts a Maiden Plate at 1200 metres on Good 4 track under overcast skies at 3:00 pm AEDT, and the win market tells an interesting tale about which maiden has caught punters' eyes. Victimised is the shortest-priced runner, with Big Vee and Dramatic Dream sitting next in the order. These three are drawing the bulk of interest, though Native Dance and Bringbackthebiff are also in the conversation. It's a race where form is thin on the ground — every runner is still searching for breakthrough wins — but the market positioning hints at where the smart money reckons the value lies.

Victimised shapes as the one with the most compelling case. The runner was genuinely impressive at Colac in a recent trial, winning by the proverbial nose, and that work has punters convinced of maturity and upside heading into a second campaign. Fred W Kersley rides, and the form comment rates this as the one to beat first-up. Big Vee, by contrast, comes to Warrnambool off a last-start eighth here over the same 1200 metres, which might look rough on paper, but Brad Rawiller sticks with the Tom Dabernig runner. The map position suits at this track and the bookie data suggests it's outperforming expectations by a useful margin — that's the kind of angle that can unlock value in maiden races. Dramatic Dream, though, debuts off a polished fifth at Echuca over 1200 metres on Good 4, and the comment flags a drift in betting before that run, hinting at something perhaps unfinished about the horse.

Native Dance arrives as a first-starter with educated form — half-brother to Adelaide metro winner Bancoora and fresh off a respectable jumpout at Coleraine in September — and Symon Wilde's stable is performing well above market expectations. Bringbackthebiff, meanwhile, pairs Dean Yendall, a rider firing 33 per cent above his expected rate lately, with a debutant that has shown enough. The speed map splits clearly: Victimised and A Little Reward shape to be onpace, Flaws And Sins leads, while Big Vee and Dramatic Dream sit backmarked. That early pressure could prove telling, and Victimised's likely position in the van, combined with that Colac form, makes a compelling case for taking a punt on the shortest price in what looks a competitive maiden scrap.

Race notes

  • 3UP MDN-SW,3yo+,MDN-SW,Maiden
  • GOOD4
  • Overcast
  • 9 runners

Shortest win price

Victimised (9)

2.15

Speed map

Back left · leaders right

Backmarker

  • 2Big Vee
  • 3Dramatic Dream

Midfield

  • 5Turquoise Parrot
  • 7Blues Jazz

Offpace

  • 6Bringbackthebiff

Onpace

  • 9Victimised
  • 1A Little Reward

Firststart

  • 8Native Dance

Leader

  • 4Flaws And Sins

  • A Little Reward · Negative

    Cold J/T Combo

    Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races

  • Big Vee · Negative

    Cold J/T Combo

    Combo are losing -63% POT in their L100 Races

  • Dramatic Dream · Negative

    Trainer SR

    Vincent Malady striking at just 7%

  • Flaws And Sins · Positive

    Jockey ROI

    Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 30% in Last 100 Rides

No.RunnerBarWgtLast 5WinPlace
1A Little RewardJ: Campbell Rawiller·T: S R Fisher359.5kg9 7 7 6 813: 0-0-0$81.00$6.00

Career

13: 0-0-0

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey40%
  • Trainer20%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed100%
  • Rating50%
  • Closing Speed40%

Record

  • First-up

    3: 0-0-0

  • Second-up

    2: 0-0-0

  • Third-up

    2: 0-0-0

  • Fourth-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Warrnambool

    8: 0-0-0

  • Track CurrentTrack

    8: 0-0-0

  • Track Hamilton

    2: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1000m

    7: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1100m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1200m

    4: 0-0-0

  • Going Good

    5: 0-0-0

  • Going Heavy

    4: 0-0-0

  • Going Soft

    3: 0-0-0

Last starts

  1. 8Warrnambool1000m29 Oct 2026 · 3UP MDN SW · GOOD410.7L
  2. 6Warrnambool1000m15 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD44.91L
  3. 7Warrnambool1000m21 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD44.56L
  4. 7Warrnambool1200m3 Sept 2026 · 4UP MDN-SW · HEAVY88.1L
  5. 9Warrnambool1400m20 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · HEAVY1019.6L
  6. 8Hamilton1200m1 Aug 2026 · MDN-SW · HEAVY1013.7L
  7. 9Ballarat Synthetic1000m30 June 2026 · MDN-SW · SYNTHETIC12.5L
  8. 9Hamilton1200m7 Apr 2026 · 3yo+ · HEAVY823L

Insights

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races

  • Trainer ROI

    Negative

    Trainers runners currently losing 100% Profit on Turnover

  • Maps Well

    Positive

    Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 8%

  • Early Splits

    Positive

    Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit

  • Limited

    Negative

    Hasn’t featured at all in all career runs

  • Dist S/R

    Negative

    Poor performer at the distance

  • Track Stats

    Negative

    Tends to struggle at this track

  • Not Trustworthy

    Negative

    May be competing at this level for some time

Comments

AAP

Unplaced in all 13 runs to date. Ridden back and never a factor this venue. Keener on others.

RP

Finished eighth, beaten a fair way here over 5f (maiden) a week ago; yet to get off the mark and losing run stands at 13 and largely in poor form of late; may have to settle for supporting role.

2Big VeeJ: Brad Rawiller·T: Tom Dabernig559.5kg9 2 3 4 86: 0-1-1$2.30$1.09

Career

6: 0-1-1

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey60%
  • Trainer80%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed100%
  • Rating50%
  • Closing Speed40%

Record

  • First-up

    2: 0-1-0

  • Second-up

    1: 0-0-1

  • Third-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Fourth-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Kyneton

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Warrnambool

    4: 0-1-1

  • Track CurrentTrack

    4: 0-1-1

  • Distance 1100m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1103m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1200m

    3: 0-1-1

  • Going Good

    4: 0-0-1

  • Going Heavy

    1: 0-1-0

  • Going Soft

    1: 0-0-0

Last starts

  1. 8Warrnambool1200m29 Oct 2026 · 3-5Y MDN SW · GOOD44.18L
  2. 4Hamilton1100m10 Oct 2026 · 4yo+ · SOFT53.05L
  3. 3Warrnambool1200m21 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD41.9L
  4. 2Warrnambool1200m3 Sept 2026 · 4UP MDN-SW · HEAVY80.2L
  5. 9Warrnambool1400m30 Oct 2025 · 3Y MDN SW · GOOD311.4L
  6. 5Kyneton1103m9 Oct 2025 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD312.4L

Insights

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -63% POT in their L100 Races

  • Maps Well

    Positive

    Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 7%

  • Fast Early

    Positive

    Sectionals suggest goes hard early

  • Winkers On

    Positive

    Important gear change of winkers on

  • Well Placed

    Positive

    Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Forget went around here last start. Rawiller sticks and can atone.

RP

Didn't run too badly when out of the frame here (beaten just over 4l) last Thursday; some promise; closest he has come to winning after six starts was a second; first-time cheekpieces on; unlikely to achieve more than just a supporting role.

3Dramatic DreamJ: Neil Farley·T: V L Malady759.5kg51: 0-0-0$6.00$1.50

Career

1: 0-0-0

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey50%
  • Trainer40%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed100%
  • Rating50%
  • Closing Speed80%

Record

  • First-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Echuca

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1200m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Good

    1: 0-0-0

Last starts

  1. 5Echuca1200m19 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD40.91L

Insights

  • Trainer SR

    Negative

    Vincent Malady striking at just 7%

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -33% POT in their L100 Races

  • Trainer Recent

    Negative

    Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 34%

  • Maps Well

    Positive

    Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 7%

  • Ran On Hard LS

    Positive

    Ran on well last start

  • Raceday Experience

    Positive

    Wiser for debut run

  • Class Rise

    Negative

    Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Promising debut performance at Echuca 19 Oct when drifting in the betting. Can have a major say.

RP

Finished fifth at Echuca two weeks ago on his debut, although he was only beaten less than a length running over this distance; could improve although needs to.

4Flaws And SinsJ: Melissa Julius·T: Shane Jackson859.5kg9 6 93: 0-0-0$61.00$5.00

Career

3: 0-0-0

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey100%
  • Trainer100%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed100%
  • Rating50%
  • Closing Speed20%

Record

  • First-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Second-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Third-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Warrnambool

    2: 0-0-0

  • Track CurrentTrack

    2: 0-0-0

  • Track Mount Gambier

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1200m

    2: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1550m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Good

    2: 0-0-0

  • Going Heavy

    1: 0-0-0

Last starts

  1. 9Mount Gambier1550m7 Oct 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD49.13L
  2. 6Warrnambool1200m21 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD46.15L
  3. 9Warrnambool1200m3 Sept 2026 · 4UP MDN-SW · HEAVY814.6L

Insights

  • Jockey ROI

    Positive

    Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 30% in Last 100 Rides

  • Jockey Booking

    Positive

    Melissa Julius 41% above market expected in L100 Rides

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races

  • Key Jockey

    Positive

    Melissa Julius winning at 21% POT in last 100 rides

  • Fast Early

    Positive

    Sectionals suggest goes hard early

  • Gave ground LS

    Negative

    Faded towards the finish last time out

  • Dist Drop

    Negative

    Distance decrease from last start

  • Blinkers On

    Positive

    Trainer has opted for the Blinkers on, take note

Comments

AAP

Freshened. Home track advantage but has a tricky draw. Need to see more from him now.

RP

Last of nine 30 days ago at Mt Gambier upped to 7½f; in first-time blinkers now.

5Turquoise ParrotJ: Samantha Noble·T: S G Noble459.5kg7 10 83: 0-0-0$101.00$7.00

Career

3: 0-0-0

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey20%
  • Trainer60%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed20%
  • Rating50%
  • Closing Speed40%

Record

  • First-up

    2: 0-0-0

  • Second-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Geelong

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Bendigo

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Wangaratta

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1300m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1100m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1112m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Good

    2: 0-0-0

  • Going Soft

    1: 0-0-0

Last starts

  1. 8Wangaratta1100m26 Oct 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD47.33L
  2. 10Bendigo1300m6 Sept 2026 · 4yo+ · SOFT55.7L
  3. 7Geelong1112m14 Jan 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD310.9L

Insights

  • Trainer Career

    Negative

    Trainer Career S/R is 3%

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -31% POT in their L100 Races

  • Trainer Recent

    Negative

    Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 26%

  • Maps Well

    Positive

    Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 7%

  • Gave ground LS

    Negative

    Faded towards the finish last time out

  • Class Rise

    Negative

    Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Raced in back half and never likely at Wangaratta for new trainer. Needs to show more.

RP

Eighth of ten beaten 7l at Wangaratta over 5½f (maiden) last month on debut for this trainer; prospects.

6BringbackthebiffJ: Dean Yendall·T: Toby Lake958kg6 91: 0-0-0$51.00$4.60

Career

1: 0-0-0

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey100%
  • Trainer100%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
  • Early Speed20%
  • Rating50%
  • Closing Speed60%

Record

  • First-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Albury

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 900m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Good

    1: 0-0-0

Last starts

  1. 9Albury900m24 Oct 2026 · MDN-SW · GOOD45.68L
  2. 6Tatura850m30 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)5.3L

Insights

  • Rider SR

    Positive

    Jockey recent POT is 30% better than Career Avg.

  • Key Rider

    Positive

    Dean Yendall 33% above market expected in L100 Rides

  • Hot J/T Combo

    Positive

    Combo are out performing market expectations by 326%

  • Trainer ROI

    Positive

    Runners from this stable currently going at 24% POT in L100 Runners

  • Needs To Imp

    Negative

    Finished towards the tail last start

  • Class Rise

    Negative

    Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

A very soft debut performance at Albury at double-figure odds 24 Oct. Need to see again.

RP

Didn't offer much on his debut at Albury with blinkers applied at 20-1 13 days ago; possible improver with outing under his belt although has plenty to find.

7Blues JazzJ: Christine Puls·T: J G Brooks257.5kg9 4 6 94: 0-0-0$51.00$4.60

Career

4: 0-0-0

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey20%
  • Trainer80%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed20%
  • Rating50%
  • Closing Speed40%

Record

  • First-up

    3: 0-0-0

  • Second-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Mount Gambier

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Warrnambool

    3: 0-0-0

  • Track CurrentTrack

    3: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1000m

    2: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1200m

    2: 0-0-0

  • Going Good

    2: 0-0-0

  • Going Heavy

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Soft

    1: 0-0-0

Last starts

  1. 9Warrnambool1000m15 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD46.43L
  2. 6Mount Gambier1200m22 May 2026 · 2UP MDN-SW · SOFT77.9L
  3. 4Warrnambool1200m7 May 2026 · 4UP MDN-SW · HEAVY104.4L
  4. 9Warrnambool1000m11 Jan 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD313.4L

Insights

  • Jockey Booking

    Negative

    Christine Puls current POT is 64% below Career Avg.

  • Rider

    Negative

    Negative rider change today

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races

  • Rider Poor SR

    Negative

    Jockey underperforming market expectations by 75% in L100 rides

  • Tricky Map

    Negative

    Runners with this map, underperform market by 4%

  • Needs To Imp

    Negative

    Finished towards the tail last start

  • Nice Barrier

    Positive

    Well drawn from gate 2

Comments

AAP

Lightly raced 5-year-old who has only managed a 4th from 4 runs to date. Hope for exotics only.

RP

Close up behind A Little Reward when ninth here over 5f (maiden) last month; attempting to get off the mark at the fifth time of asking (fourth her best finish so far); probably unlikely to trouble the principals.

8Native DanceJ: Jack Hill·T: Symon Wilde157.5kg–$10.00$2.20

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

  • Jockey100%
  • Trainer100%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
  • Early Speed50%
  • Rating50%
  • Closing Speed50%

Insights

  • Jockey ROI

    Positive

    Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 22% in Last 100 Rides

  • Stable In Form

    Positive

    Stable going well. Out performing market by 53%

  • Trainer ROI

    Positive

    Runners from this stable currently going at 34% POT in L100 Runners

  • Nice Barrier

    Positive

    Well drawn from gate 1

  • On Debut

    Positive

    First race start

  • Winkers On

    Positive

    Important gear change of winkers on

Comments

AAP

Half to Adelaide metro winner Bancoora. Second in latest Coleraine jumpout back in September. Educated here and must be kept safe.

RP

Sole debutant in the line up; related to 5½f winner Eurack; every chance with signs of encouragement in profile.

9VictimisedJ: Fred W Kersley·T: L Smith656kg8 4 8 12: 0-0-0$2.15$1.09

Career

2: 0-0-0

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey40%
  • Trainer80%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
  • Early Speed20%
  • Rating50%
  • Closing Speed50%

Record

  • First-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Second-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track CurrentTrack

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Ballarat

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Warrnambool

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1000m

    2: 0-0-0

  • Going Good

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Heavy

    1: 0-0-0

Last starts

  1. 1Colac1000m22 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)-0.2
  2. 8Ballarat1000m24 May 2026 · 2Y MDN-SW · GOOD44.5L
  3. 4Warrnambool1000m5 May 2026 · 2Y FILLIES SW · HEAVY85.8L
  4. 8Caulfield Heath850m23 Apr 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)4.8L

Insights

  • Maps Well

    Positive

    Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 7%

  • 1st Up

    Negative

    May need this run

  • Class Rise

    Negative

    Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Second campaign (23-weeks). Maturity upside and latest Colac trial was impressive. Looks the one to beat first-up.

RP

Not beaten too far when eighth of 11 over 5f at Ballarat (maiden) in May; returns from a break here; with the benefit of experience, can't be ruled out.

Odds correct as at . Odds can change.

Past meetings

  • Thu 29 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 8 races
  • Thu 15 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 8 races
  • Thu 1 Oct, 10:00 am AEST · 8 races
  • Mon 21 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 8 races
  • Thu 3 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 8 races