Kempsey (NSW) horses tips & previews

8 Nov, 12:51 am AEDT

One race at a time: field, form guide and win/place odds for Kempsey (NSW), with capture times on every price.

Meeting — Fri 6 Nov, 11:00 am AEDT

Meetings · Fri, 6 NovKempsey (NSW)Change

Race 8 — Team Edwards At Harcourts Country Boosted (Bm58) 1450m · jumps Fri 6 Nov, 5:35 pm AEDT

Race preview

Kempsey runs the Team Edwards At Harcourts Country Boosted at 5:35 pm AEDT over 1450 metres on a heavy track in fine weather. It's a Benchmark 58 for country horses, and the win market is led by Nugget Smart, Aye Aye Skipper, Carmine, and Outoftheoffice. The early jostling shapes as a battle between two leaders. Nugget Smart holds the market pole while Aye Aye Skipper breaks from barrier 1 and maps perfectly for the front. Both will likely press forward from the jump, setting the tempo for the closers lurking off pace.

Nugget Smart rates the pick at shortest odds. Aaron Bullock and Ben Blay are striking at 36 per cent profit on turnover across their last hundred rides together—a hot combination in any frame. Two back, Nugget Smart won a Class 2 at Tamworth over 1400 metres, before flat-footing when pressure applied at Muswellbrook. Back in benchmark company and dropped to a mile and a half, the form suggests a bounce-back opportunity. Aye Aye Skipper, barrier 1, set the pace and got caught late at Port Macquarie last start, and the notes hint he handles rain-affected ground. With only seven per cent strike rate across John Sprague's stable, this isn't a training fortress, but the horse maps kindly for a lead role. Carmine, third up, is a maiden-breaker sent forward into Class 2 at Port Macquarie at odds-on, then started $21 next time over soft going. The comment flags fitness building; stepping back to benchmark and up to 1450 on a heavy deck, Madeline Owen's four-year-old could offer value in each-way exotics.

The story outside the favourites sits with Outoftheoffice in barrier 5. Jenny Duggan is running 41 per cent ahead of career averages over her last century of rides, and she and trainer P J Kelly form a combo outperforming market expectations by 175 per cent. Outoftheoffice ran steady at Taree two back in heavy going and prefers this distance band. The form's not glittering, but the rider-trainer angle and a jockey riding hot is worth siding with in exotics. Expect Nugget Smart and Aye Aye Skipper to dominate early, then watch whether Carmine or Outoftheoffice can grind through the heavy to catch them home.

Race notes

Benchmark 58,CTRY BM58,CTRY BM58 HCP
HEAVY10
Fine
11 runners

Shortest win price

Nugget Smart (3)

2.35

Most career wins

He's Godspeed

5-3-4 from 37 starts

Speed map

Back left · leaders right

Backmarker

13Buffett
14Rivoli Star

Offmidfield

9Crashmyplaya
12La Bella Rosa

Midfield

4Carmine
7Outoftheoffice

Offpace

8Purple Kitty
15Green Meadows

Onpace

2He's Godspeed

Leader

3Nugget Smart
6Aye Aye Skipper

He's Godspeed · Negative
Trainer Recent
Camp struggling with S/R just 5%
Nugget Smart · Positive
Hot J/T Combo
Combo are winning 36% POT in their L100 Races
Carmine · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Aye Aye Skipper · Negative
Trainer SR
John Sprague striking at just 7%

No.RunnerBarWgtLast 5WinPlace

1Kid BillyScratched6––––

Rating · IRD

Figures

Jockey50%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
Early Speed100%
Rating80%
Closing Speed60%

Insights

Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 22%
Gap In Runs
Negative
Not raced for 40 days
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Now 5 weeks between runs. Great run at Coffs Harbour 13 Sep. Went home tamely at Port Macquarie at $5.50. BM58 suits and best this trip.

ILB

Was $5.50 and unsatisfactory performance when 8th last start at Port Macquarie and has to cope with a weight increase.

RSIS

At 9/2 underperformed when 8th last run at Port Macquarie and has more weight to carry.

2He's GodspeedJ: Paige Fergusson-Smith·T: B M Lazzarini761kg5 4 7 7 437: 5-3-4$10.00$2.70

Career

37: 5-3-4

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey80%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating100%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
4: 0-0-2
Second-up
3: 0-1-0
Third-up
3: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
2: 1-0-0
Track Moonee Valley
1: 0-0-0
Track Coffs Harbour
1: 0-0-0
Track Terang
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1356m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1400m
7: 1-2-0
Distance 1550m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
19: 4-1-1
Going Heavy
6: 0-0-1
Going Soft
10: 1-2-1

Last starts

4Port Macquarie1500m25 Oct 2026 · BM58 · SOFT62.19L
7Taree1300m16 Oct 2026 · BM86 HCP · SOFT65.7L
7Ballina1300m4 Oct 2026 · BM74 · GOOD35.08L
4Bowraville1370m19 Sept 2026 · BOWRAVILLE CUP · GOOD31.31L
5Taree1614m21 July 2026 · BM58 · HEAVY82L
3Taree1614m9 July 2026 · BM58 · HEAVY101.6L
10Randwick Kensington1550m1 July 2026 · 3UP BM72 HCP · HEAVY810L
1Inverell1600m19 June 2026 · Benchmark 58 · GOOD4-0.6

Insights

Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 5%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 28%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 27%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Not disgraced in soft going at Port Macquarie. First time around Kempsey. Hard to warm to.

ILB

Odds of $8.00 and improved late to finish 4th last time at Port Macquarie. Has the speed to overcome the wide barrier. Paige Fergusson Smith provides some weight relief. Should go very close.

Fair effort (beaten just over 2l) at Port Macquarie last month; latest effort was encouraging so ought to be on the premises.

RSIS

Started 7/1 and moved through the field into 4th last run at Port Macquarie. Has the early pace to burn across from the wide stall. Goes well and could be a value opportunity.

3Nugget SmartJ: Aaron Bullock·T: Ben Blay259.5kg7 2 2 1 620: 2-2-4$2.35$1.24

Career

20: 2-2-4

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed80%
Rating100%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
3: 0-0-1
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
2: 1-0-0
Track Tamworth
7: 2-0-1
Track Muswellbrook
3: 0-0-2
Track Dubbo
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1100m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
10: 1-1-2
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-1
Going Soft
8: 1-1-1

Last starts

6Muswellbrook1500m19 Oct 2026 · Benchmark 66 · GOOD44.38L
1Tamworth1400m28 Sept 2026 · CTRY CL2 · GOOD4-1.31
2Tuncurry1400m11 Sept 2026 · Benchmark 58 · GOOD30.2L
2Tuncurry1400m24 Aug 2026 · Benchmark 58 · SOFT70.1L
7Gunnedah1400m14 Aug 2026 · Benchmark 58 · SOFT64.9L
3Muswellbrook1280m26 July 2026 · BM58 · GOOD41.9L
6Dubbo1100m13 July 2026 · Benchmark 58 · SOFT52.1L
4Narromine1100m22 June 2026 · BM58 · HEAVY102.6L

Insights

Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are winning 36% POT in their L100 Races
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 24% POT in L100 Runners
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Weight Increase
Negative
Rises 6kg now

Comments

AAP

Won a 1400m Class 2 at Tamworth two back. Sent forward but flat-footed when things got serious at Muswellbrook. Back to weaker company. Can bounce back.

ILB

Odds of $3.80 and ran 6th last run at Muswellbrook. Expected to rebound but has more weight to carry. Has shown early pace in races to date. Commands respect.

Not disgraced in sixth (Muswellbrook) two weeks ago; others more appealing.

RSIS

Started 11/4 and finished 6th last time at Muswellbrook. Should improve here but bit of extra work to do with more weight. Should race on the pace. Great chance.

4CarmineJ: Madeline Owen·T: Lyndall Olson1059kg5 4 7 1 58: 1-1-1$9.00$2.65

Career

8: 1-1-1

Rating · IRD

100

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed80%
Rating100%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
3: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Taree
2: 0-0-0
Track Wyong
1: 0-0-0
Track Tuncurry
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1206m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1350m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
4: 1-0-0
Going Good
3: 0-0-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-1-0

Last starts

5Port Macquarie1200m25 Oct 2026 · CL2 · SOFT64.75L
1Port Macquarie1500m26 Apr 2026 · MDN · SOFT7-0.3
7Wyong1350m28 Mar 2026 · MDN · SOFT51L
4Port Macquarie1206m16 Mar 2026 · CGE MDN-SW · GOOD41.4L
5Taree1300m3 Mar 2026 · CTRY MDN-SW · SOFT65.6L
10Taree1400m17 Oct 2025 · Maiden · GOOD46.7L
3Port Macquarie1509m28 Sept 2025 · MDN-SW · GOOD40.4L
2Tuncurry1200m12 Sept 2025 · MDN-SW · HEAVY82.4L

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Broke maiden at Port Macquarie 26 Apr. Started $21 when battled home in Class 2 company on a soft deck at Port Macquarie. Building fitness. Could add some value to exotics.

ILB

Crept into 5th last run at Port Macquarie. Strong chance.

Seems to have stepped up on previous form the last twice and can be a player at this level; not disgraced when fifth at Port Macquarie over 6f (handicap) last month; should prove competitive given that not many of these impressed last time out and shown he can get his head in front.

RSIS

Was making up some late ground when 5th last start at Port Macquarie. Will be in the finish.

5ContaldoScratched1––––

Career

21: 1-3-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer20%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating60%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
5: 0-0-1
Second-up
4: 0-1-0
Third-up
3: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Canberra
1: 0-0-0
Track Newcastle
1: 0-0-0
Track Warwick Farm
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1609m
3: 1-1-1
Distance 2000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
15: 1-2-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
5: 0-1-0

Last starts

6Port Macquarie1200m9 Oct 2026 · CTRY CL1 · GOOD43.29L
10Port Macquarie1204m27 Sept 2026 · BM58 · GOOD47.89L
6Taree1614m5 May 2026 · BM66 · HEAVY85.6L
4Gosford1600m9 Apr 2026 · CL1 · GOOD43.2L
5Port Macquarie1800m24 Mar 2026 · CL1-SW · SOFT63.7L
5Taree1600m10 Mar 2026 · CL1-SW · SOFT65.7L
8Caulfield Heath1800m18 Feb 2026 · 0 - 66 · GOOD46.7L
5Newcastle2100m26 Dec 2025 · 3UP CL1 MDN-SW · GOOD42.1L

Insights

Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 2%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 64%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 69% Profit on Turnover
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Freshened. Got back and wasn't totally disgraced at Port Macquarie second-up. Could get into the placings.

ILB

Ran 6th last start at Port Macquarie but has minimal work to do from the alley.

An infrequent winner; not disgraced in sixth at Port Macquarie over 6f (handicap) last month; passed over.

RSIS

Ran 6th last start at Port Macquarie but will appreciate a good stall.

6Aye Aye SkipperJ: Liam Riordan·T: J A Sprague158.5kg2 5 3 8 339: 3-5-5$8.00$2.45

Career

39: 3-5-5

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating80%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
6: 0-0-1
Second-up
5: 0-0-1
Third-up
5: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
5: 0-0-1
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-0
Track Taree
6: 0-2-0
Track Yarra Valley
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1258m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1410m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
2: 0-0-1
Going Soft
14: 0-3-4
Going Good
19: 1-2-1
Going Heavy
6: 2-0-0

Last starts

3Port Macquarie1500m25 Oct 2026 · BM58 · SOFT61.06L
8Port Macquarie1200m10 Oct 2026 · Benchmark 58 · GOOD44.72L
3Port Macquarie1204m27 Sept 2026 · BM58 · GOOD40.49L
5Coffs Harbour1010m3 Sept 2026 · CL3 · GOOD43.7L
2Taree1400m9 Apr 2026 · Benchmark 58 · SOFT60.4L
6Port Macquarie1500m24 Mar 2026 · Benchmark 58 · SOFT62.6L
4Coffs Harbour1212m9 Mar 2026 · CL3 · HEAVY92L
3Coffs Harbour1212m1 Mar 2026 · BM58 · SOFT50.9L

Insights

Trainer SR
Negative
John Sprague striking at just 7%
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 28%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Set pace and caught late at Port Macquarie. Maps well. Gets through rain affected ground. Right in this.

ILB

Showed strength on the speed initially before fading at the end 3rd last start at Port Macquarie. Shows good early pace. Expect a forward showing.

Had four of these rivals behind him (Port Macquarie) last month when a respectable third; string of creditable efforts to his name of late but infrequent winner; unlikely to achieve more than just a supporting role as regularly been coming up a bit short lately; also engaged in race 7 at Kempsey.

RSIS

Big effort to place 3rd beaten by 1L last start at Port Macquarie. Has early pace and positions nicely. Solid chance.

7OutoftheofficeJ: Jenny Duggan·T: P J Kelly558.5kg12 13 1 5 516: 2-1-0$8.00$2.45

Career

16: 2-1-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed80%
Rating60%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Taree
4: 1-0-0
Track Grafton
4: 0-1-0
Track Lismore
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1007m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1010m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
5: 1-0-0
Going Heavy
4: 1-0-0
Going Soft
7: 0-1-0

Last starts

5Taree1250m16 Oct 2026 · CTRY CL2-SW · SOFT63.12L
5Taree1413m22 Sept 2026 · BM58 · SOFT64.22L
1Coffs Harbour1218m13 Sept 2026 · CL1 · GOOD4-0.1
13Taree1000m14 Aug 2026 · CL1 · GOOD49.4L
12Port Macquarie1206m31 July 2026 · CTRY CL1 · SOFT613.8L
1Taree1007m9 July 2026 · MDN-SW · HEAVY10-2.9
6Taree1000m30 June 2026 · Barrier Trial · HEAVY(9)6.1L
7Grafton1205m6 June 2026 · MDN-SW · SOFT69.6L

Insights

Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 41% in Last 100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 175%
Trainer Form
Positive
In form stable, out performing market expectations 63%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 40% POT in L100 Runners
Hot Jockey
Positive
Jenny Duggan in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 48%
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Got back and ran home steadily at Taree. Best efforts have been in this campaign. Keep safe.

ILB

Odds of $21.00 and made up ground when 5th last time at Taree and competing in a lower grade. Prefer to watch.

Fair effort when beaten just over 3l, finishing fifth of 11 over 6f at Taree (conditions race) last month; should be involved as he knows how to get the job done.

RSIS

Odds of 20/1 and outpaced some runners late when 5th last start at Taree and stepping down to a lower level.

8Purple KittyJ: Grant Buckley·T: P Cheers1157.5kg6 6 2 4 739: 3-4-5$12.00$3.20

Career

39: 3-4-5

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating60%
Closing Speed20%

Record

First-up
3: 0-0-1
Second-up
2: 0-0-1
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Grafton
3: 0-0-0
Track Gosford
1: 0-0-0
Track Tuncurry
3: 0-0-1
Distance 1100m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
4: 0-1-0
Distance 1812m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
15: 2-2-2
Going Heavy
5: 0-1-2
Going Soft
19: 1-1-1

Last starts

7Port Macquarie1500m25 Oct 2026 · BM58 · SOFT63.49L
4Taree2000m16 Oct 2026 · BM66 · SOFT62.86L
2Port Macquarie1800m10 Oct 2026 · BM58 · GOOD42.29L
6Port Macquarie1808m27 Sept 2026 · Benchmark 82 · GOOD43.2L
6Grafton2230m21 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD46.09L
3Tuncurry2100m11 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD32.1L
1Taree1600m31 Aug 2026 · BM58 · SOFT6-0.4
8Tuncurry1400m24 Aug 2026 · Benchmark 58 · SOFT78L

Insights

Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 75%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 6% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 27%
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

On pace but unable to sustain bid at Port Macquarie. Has speed. First time around Kempsey. Others with more appeal.

ILB

At $11.00 looked outclassed when 7th last start at Port Macquarie. Not at all out of this race.

Not beaten too far when seventh of ten (dropped to this distance) at Port Macquarie two weeks ago; capable of going well based on the pick of his form.

RSIS

Was 10/1 and didn't attack the line when 7th last start at Port Macquarie. Not at all out of this race.

9CrashmyplayaJ: Grady Spokes·T: Colt Prosser657kg2 2 1 5 718: 1-4-1$8.50$2.60

Career

18: 1-4-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offmidfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed20%
Rating80%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
2: 0-1-0
Track Coffs Harbour
2: 0-0-0
Track Inverell
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1700m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1110m
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
7: 1-1-1
Going Good
9: 0-3-0

Last starts

7Coffs Harbour1212m3 Sept 2026 · CL1 · GOOD43.7L
5Port Macquarie1006m31 July 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(6)9.6L
1Armidale1300m18 Jan 2026 · CTRY MDN-SW · SOFT6-0.6
2Inverell1400m1 Jan 2026 · Maiden · GOOD40.2L
2Kempsey1450m15 Dec 2025 · MDN · SOFT51.5L
4Grafton1420m30 Nov 2025 · CTRY MDN-SW · GOOD30.6L
3Grafton1700m21 Nov 2025 · MDN · SOFT71.8L
2Port Macquarie1500m13 Nov 2025 · MDN · GOOD41.3L

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Let-up (64-days). Got back and wasn't totally disgraced at Coffs Harbour off long break. Capable of making an impact fresh in this line-up.

ILB

Resuming after a spell. Finished 7th last time at Coffs Harbour. Shows very good closing speed. Has strong claims.

Fair effort when beaten 3½l, finishing seventh of 12 over 6f at Coffs Harbour (handicap) two months ago; seems to be improving based on last two runs; is passed over.

RSIS

Resuming after a break. Came in 7th last start at Coffs Harbour. Will be hitting the line strongly. Can win.

10Phoenix PowerScratched8––––

Career

24: 2-2-4

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey50%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed20%
Rating60%
Closing Speed20%

Record

First-up
4: 1-0-1
Second-up
3: 0-0-0
Third-up
3: 0-0-2
Fourth-up
3: 1-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-1-0
Track Coffs Harbour
2: 1-0-1
Track Port Macquarie
6: 0-0-2
Distance 1400m
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1413m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1450m
1: 0-1-0
Going Heavy
3: 0-0-1
Going Soft
14: 2-2-1
Going Good
7: 0-0-2

Last starts

8Newcastle1200m26 Oct 2026 · Benchmark 58 · SOFT55.37L
11Taree1413m22 Sept 2026 · BM58 · SOFT616.86L
10Taree1400m31 Aug 2026 · CL3 · SOFT611L
5Taree1400m14 Aug 2026 · CTRY CL2 · GOOD41.6L
9Newcastle1400m1 Aug 2026 · BM64 · SOFT510.9L
7Taree1412m9 July 2026 · CL2 · HEAVY1017L
4Port Macquarie1512m14 June 2026 · CL2 · SOFT73.6L
3Port Macquarie1200m27 May 2026 · CL3 · HEAVY91.4L

Insights

Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Win Drought
Negative
Not won for a while

Comments

AAP

Winless since 4 Sep 2025. Sent forward but flat-footed when things got serious at Beaumont. Has early speed. Has work to do on recent figures.

ILB

Gave away some ground when 8th last start at Newcastle.

Close up behind Fancy Shoulder when eighth over 6f at Beaumont (handicap) last week in blinkers for the first time; hasn't shown much recently; others appeal more.

RSIS

Faded away to finish 8th last time at Newcastle.

11Mars LandingScratched17––––

Rating · IRD

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer20%
Jockey/Trainer Combo50%
Early Speed50%
Rating50%
Closing Speed50%

Insights

Ready To Fire
Positive
Shown something in last few runs

Comments

AAP

Knuckled down in sloppy conditions for second at Wauchope. Has an adverse draw. New to Kempsey. This looks stronger.

ILB

Tidy run when 2nd last run at Wauchope.

RSIS

Ran well when 2nd last start at Wauchope.

12La Bella RosaJ: Luke Rolls·T: R Simonetta955kg1 7 8 7 515: 1-0-1$10.00$2.75

Career

15: 1-0-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offmidfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed20%
Rating60%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-1
Track Hawkesbury
1: 0-0-0
Track Kembla Grange
1: 0-0-0
Track Randwick
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1410m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
6: 1-0-0
Going Soft
9: 0-0-1

Last starts

5Port Macquarie1500m25 Oct 2026 · BM58 · SOFT62.37L
7Taree1600m16 Oct 2026 · CL1-SW · SOFT69.18L
8Taree1413m22 Sept 2026 · BM58 · SOFT67.06L
7Tuncurry1400m11 Sept 2026 · Benchmark 58 · GOOD35.3L
1Kempsey1450m5 Sept 2026 · MDN · GOOD4-2.8
3Grafton1410m29 Aug 2026 · MDN-SW · SOFT52.7L
8Grafton1430m18 Aug 2026 · MDN · SOFT65.2L
7Port Macquarie1206m31 July 2026 · Maiden · SOFT66.7L

Insights

Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 30% better than Career Avg.
Key Rider
Positive
Luke Rolls 43% above market expected in L100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 406%
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Made late rally from the back at Port Macquarie. Rough place hope with repeat.

ILB

Started at $26.00 and ran past a few when 5th last run at Port Macquarie. Expected to settle towards the tail. Very minor chance.

Beaten 2½l last month when sent off 25-1 at Port Macquarie; brings winning C&D form to the table; subpar since successful in a handicap at Kempsey two months ago.

RSIS

Started at 25/1 and kept chasing when 5th last run at Port Macquarie. Likely to get back in the field.

13BuffettJ: Teighan Worsnop·T: P J Kelly455kg7 4 10 6 426: 1-3-0$61.00$7.00

Career

26: 1-3-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating40%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
5: 0-0-0
Second-up
3: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-1-0
Track Wauchope
1: 0-0-0
Track Hawkesbury
2: 0-0-0
Track Kembla Grange
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1605m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1240m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
6: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
7: 0-0-0
Going Soft
13: 1-3-0

Last starts

4Wauchope1240m17 Oct 2026 · CL1 · HEAVY94.55L
6Port Macquarie1000m10 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)6.2L
10Taree1250m5 June 2026 · CL1 · HEAVY810.8L
4Port Macquarie1509m18 May 2026 · BM58 · HEAVY105.1L
7Taree1614m5 May 2026 · BM66 · HEAVY87.4L
2Tuncurry1605m18 Apr 2026 · BM58 · SOFT62.1L
12Taree1400m9 Apr 2026 · Benchmark 58 · SOFT67.2L
8Taree1250m3 Mar 2026 · CL3 · SOFT66.6L

Insights

Jockey Booking
Negative
Teighan Worsnop current POT is 54% below Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 102%
Hot Trainer
Positive
Paul Kelly in good form, out performing market 63%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 40% POT in L100 Runners
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 79% in L100 rides
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Last win was 21 Aug 2024. Sent out $15 when battled home to finish 4th in sloppy conditions at Wauchope. Keener on others.

ILB

At $7.50 ran 4th last start at Wauchope. Likely to get back. Looks hopeful.

This is his level; not disgraced when fourth of eight over 6f at Wauchope (handicap) last month.

RSIS

Odds of 13/2 and finished 4th last time at Wauchope. Does take a while to get into stride.

14Rivoli StarJ: Peter Graham·T: Peter Graham355kg6 5 5 5 746: 4-1-3$26.00$4.20

Career

46: 4-1-3

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey80%
Trainer20%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed20%
Rating40%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
5: 0-0-0
Second-up
4: 0-0-1
Third-up
4: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
4: 1-0-0
Track Muswellbrook
3: 0-0-0
Track Dubbo
1: 0-0-0
Track Bathurst
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1440m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1450m
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1200m
6: 1-0-0
Going Heavy
8: 1-0-1
Going Soft
16: 0-0-1
Going Unknown
4: 2-1-0

Last starts

7Tamworth1400m3 Nov 2026 · BM50 · SOFT66.89L
5Wauchope1000m17 Oct 2026 · BM50 · HEAVY99.79L
5Port Macquarie1200m10 Oct 2026 · Benchmark 58 · GOOD41.79L
5Port Macquarie1204m27 Sept 2026 · BM58 · GOOD44.04L
6Bowraville1370m19 Sept 2026 · BM50 · GOOD32.98L
4Kempsey1000m5 Sept 2026 · BM50 · GOOD44L
8Port Macquarie1204m4 July 2026 · BM50 · SOFT79.6L
13Taree1400m30 June 2026 · Benchmark 58 · HEAVY914.8L

Insights

Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 4%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are under performing market expectations by -30%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 42%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Primed
Positive
Fitter here racing on a quick back up
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Backing up quickly. Campaign looks to be running out of steam. Lift needed.

ILB

On a short turnaround. Jumped at $13.00 and clearly outclassed when 7th last start at Tamworth. Likely to get back in the run. Struggling this campaign. Can't have on what it has been showing.

Came home seventh, beaten 7l, (Tamworth) on Tuesday upped to this trip.

RSIS

On a short back up. At 12/1 fairly underwhelming when 7th last start at Tamworth. Has struggled so far recently. Prefers to settle towards the rear.

15Green MeadowsJ: Violet Soulsby·T: H R Dew855kg7 5 9 6 1022: 1-1-1$101.00$11.00

Career

22: 1-1-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer20%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed20%
Rating40%
Closing Speed20%

Record

First-up
5: 0-0-0
Second-up
4: 0-0-0
Third-up
4: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Ipswich
1: 0-0-0
Track Sunshine Coast
1: 0-0-1
Track Kilcoy
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1800m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1900m
2: 0-1-0
Going Good
8: 0-0-1
Going Heavy
4: 0-0-0
Going Soft
5: 0-0-0

Last starts

10Port Macquarie1500m25 Oct 2026 · BM58 · SOFT68.22L
6Port Macquarie1500m10 Oct 2026 · CL3 · GOOD45.55L
9Taree1008m22 Sept 2026 · CTRY CL3 · SOFT69.85L
5Tuncurry1405m9 May 2026 · CL1 · HEAVY85.1L
7Kempsey1450m25 Apr 2026 · BM5015.8L
10Tuncurry1305m18 Apr 2026 · BM50 · SOFT68.3L
9Kilcoy1900m19 Dec 2025 · 0 - 58 · GOOD39.1L
9Murwillumbah2000m12 Dec 2025 · CL1-SW · GOOD47.6L

Insights

Trainer SR
Negative
Hilary Dew striking at just 1%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -67% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 62%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 27%
Well beaten LS
Negative
Not competitive last run
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Imprv Needed
Negative
Would need to lift here to feature

Comments

AAP

Hasn't done much since breaking his maiden. Failed to threaten on a soft deck at Port Macquarie at wide odds. Needs to up his game.

ILB

Started $61.00 and tailed off to finish 10th last start at Port Macquarie. Hard to see it being good enough.

Useful at this level; four of these rivals finished ahead of him when finishing last of ten at Port Macquarie last month.

RSIS

At 60/1 folded up in the straight when 10th last time at Port Macquarie.

16Fancy ShoulderScratched16––––

Career

25: 3-5-2

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey50%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed80%
Rating80%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
3: 1-0-1
Second-up
2: 0-0-1
Third-up
2: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Morphettville
3: 0-0-0
Track Grafton
1: 0-0-1
Track Penola
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1250m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1430m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
11: 2-2-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
13: 1-3-2

Last starts

4Newcastle1200m26 Oct 2026 · Benchmark 58 · SOFT52.13L
2Port Macquarie1200m10 Oct 2026 · Benchmark 58 · GOOD40.31L
2Port Macquarie1204m27 Sept 2026 · BM58 · GOOD41.04L
9Coffs Harbour1318m13 Sept 2026 · BM58 · GOOD44.6L
1Port Macquarie1206m31 July 2026 · BM58 CL2+ · SOFT6-2.8
3Grafton1100m19 July 2026 · Benchmark 58 · SOFT51.3L
1Inverell1050m19 June 2026 · Benchmark 58 · GOOD4-2.5
1Coffs Harbour812m3 June 2026 · Barrier Trial · HEAVY(10)-0.2

Insights

Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 8% POT in L100 Runners
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Latest form hard to fault. Great run at Port Macquarie 10 Oct. Gave solid chase in a good effort at Beaumont after a market ease. Rates among the better chances.

ILB

At $7.00 made some ground when 4th last time at Newcastle. Showing positive results since returning from a break.

Knocking on the door of late; respectable fourth over 6f at Beaumont (handicap) last month; also engaged in race 5 at Kempsey.

RSIS

Odds of 6/1 and overtook some late when 4th last start at Newcastle. Performing honestly since resuming from a break.

17Cool Az AlettaScratched4––––

Career

18: 1-2-2

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey50%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed20%
Rating60%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-1-0
Third-up
2: 0-1-1
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-1
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-1-0
Track Tuncurry
1: 1-0-0
Track Port Macquarie
8: 0-0-1
Distance 1263m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1007m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
9: 0-1-1
Going Good
7: 0-1-1
Going Heavy
2: 1-0-0

Last starts

4Newcastle1350m26 Oct 2026 · CL1 · SOFT55.06L
7Taree1250m16 Oct 2026 · CTRY CL2-SW · SOFT63.53L
6Port Macquarie1200m10 Oct 2026 · Benchmark 58 · GOOD42.16L
2Taree1263m22 Sept 2026 · CL3 BM66 · SOFT62.97L
2Kempsey1250m5 Sept 2026 · BM50 · GOOD42.4L
6Port Macquarie1010m22 Aug 2026 · BM50 · HEAVY84L
13Scone1600m15 May 2026 · CL1-SW · GOOD410.4L
6Newcastle1300m2 May 2026 · CL1 · GOOD42.4L

Insights

Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 21%
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Last success was 12 Sep 2025. Trimmed margin late at Beaumont. Smoky place prospect at best.

ILB

Kept chasing when 4th last time at Newcastle.

Beaten 5l (fourth) over 6½f at Beaumont (handicap) last week; also engaged in race 5 at Kempsey.

RSIS

Made ground when closing off to finish 4th last start at Newcastle.

18PongolaScratched2––––

Career

44: 1-1-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey50%
Trainer20%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed20%
Rating20%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
5: 0-0-0
Second-up
4: 0-0-0
Third-up
4: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
4: 0-0-0
Track Grafton
6: 0-0-0
Track Tuncurry
3: 0-0-0
Track Bowraville
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1208m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1405m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1004m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
15: 0-0-0
Going Unknown
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
16: 0-0-0

Last starts

10Port Macquarie1200m25 Oct 2026 · CL2 · SOFT611.65L
7Wauchope1240m17 Oct 2026 · CL1 · HEAVY99.1L
10Port Macquarie1004m27 Sept 2026 · CTRY CL1 · GOOD48.29L
7Bowraville1000m19 Sept 2026 · HCP · GOOD36.25L
12Kempsey1250m5 Sept 2026 · BM50 · GOOD411.2L
9Tuncurry1000m24 Aug 2026 · CL1 · SOFT713.5L
10Tuncurry1400m21 Feb 2026 · BM50 · GOOD414.3L
10Coffs Harbour1000m15 Feb 2026 · Benchmark 58 · HEAVY89.8L

Insights

Blinkers Off
Positive
Blinkers coming off this start

Comments

AAP

Largely struggled in his post maiden runs and remains unplaced from 6 starts here. Hard to make a case.

ILB

Didn't attack the line when 10th last run at Port Macquarie but can find a nice position from the draw. Has not placed in 6 attempts this campaign.

Behind Carmine over 6f at Port Macquarie (handicap) when beaten 12l (tenth of 11) last month; also engaged in race 5 at Kempsey.

RSIS

Couldn't maintain the pace when 10th last start at Port Macquarie but will try to take advantage of the stall. Yet to fire recently with no placings from 6 runs.

Odds correct as at Fri 6 Nov, 5:40 pm AEDT. Odds can change.

Past meetings

Sat 5 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 6 races