Shortest win price
Jade Trees (8)
4.20
Welcome to Kempsey for the Akubra Kempsey Cup over 1450m on a Heavy 10 track with fine weather overhead. The win market lines up with Kaihoko sitting shortest in the market, followed closely by Jade Trees, King Of Dragons, and Creative Righteous in that order. Punters looking for a yarn in the feature race have plenty of intriguing form lines to unpack as the field prepares for battle on the testing surface.
Looking closely at the form behind those shorter prices, Kaihoko is prepared by Colt Prosser and will jump from barrier 6 with Luke Rolls steering. This backmarker was freshened after putting in some big strides late to finish third at Port Macquarie over 1500m on a good surface. Jade Trees is another key player out of barrier 4 for trainer B J Dodson and jockey Grady Spokes, coming off a third at Newcastle and a heavy-track win at Grafton, proving a handy ability to handle wet conditions. Creative Righteous represents P Cheers and Grant Buckley from barrier 8, having kept fighting on strongly for third over 1600m at Taree last time out.
Further down the speed map, King Of Dragons and Golden Copper are expected to push forward as leaders, while King Of Dragons enters following a freshen-up after racing at Canberra. Zaru maps off midfield for Lyndall Olson and Aaron Bullock, carrying the top weight of 60kg and coming off a solid runner-up performance with the fastest overall finishing sectionals last start. With plenty of depth across the Kempsey Cup field, punters should weigh up all the wet track credentials before diving into the market.
Shortest win price
Jade Trees (8)
4.20
Most career wins
Bold Hoi Ho
7-4-4 from 42 starts
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Offmidfield
Midfield
Onpace
Leader
Zaru · Positive
Fast Finisher
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Creative Righteous · Positive
Hot J/T Combo
Combo are out performing market expectations by 75%
Kaihoko · Positive
Rider SR
Jockey recent POT is 30% better than Career Avg.
Bold Hoi Ho · Negative
Jockey Booking
Less suitable jockey engaged
Career
65: 6-15-12
Rating · IRD
86
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
12: 0-5-1
Second-up
11: 2-3-2
Third-up
11: 2-3-2
Fourth-up
10: 1-2-3
Track Kembla Grange
1: 0-0-0
Track Nowra
1: 0-0-0
Track Quirindi
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1206m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1250m
9: 2-4-1
Distance 1300m
8: 2-1-2
Going Good
30: 2-8-3
Going Heavy
15: 1-5-2
Going Soft
20: 3-2-7
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -43% POT in their L100 Races
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Better for last start
Positive
Improved with last few runs
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Pretty good effort in defeat at Taree. Bullock rides. Each way.
ILB
Good performance to run into 2nd last run at Taree and has a positive draw. Displays good closing speed. Aaron Bullock is a suitable booking. Solid chance.
RP
Produced an encouraging effort (second of ten, beaten just under 2l) over 6½f at Taree (handicap) in front of Get Some Fun last month.
RSIS
Good effort to place 2nd last run at Taree and has a positive draw. Jockey Aaron Bullock is in form. Displays good closing pace. Good chance of taking this out.
Rating · IRD
20
AAP
Failed to threaten at Newcastle. Leads, handy. First time around Kempsey. Can't enthuse.
ILB
Started $12.00 and couldn't stay in touch when 8th last time at Newcastle.
RSIS
Was 11/1 and well beaten when 8th last time at Newcastle.
Career
15: 3-2-2
Rating · IRD
79
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
4: 1-0-1
Second-up
3: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-0
Track Mornington
1: 0-0-0
Track Taree
4: 0-1-1
Distance 1400m
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1419m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1512m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
9: 1-1-1
Going Soft
5: 1-1-1
Going Synthetic
1: 1-0-0
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 75%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 6% POT in L100 Runners
Form Revival
Positive
Turning form around with last couple
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
In touch, winner cleared out but he kept fighting on at Taree. Handles soft, untested heavy. Worth a look.
ILB
Ran well when 3rd last run at Taree. Tracking very well this preparation. Needs to improve.
RP
Not beaten too far when third at Taree over 1m (handicap) last month.
RSIS
Competitive effort when 3rd last run at Taree. Performing impressively of late.
Career
29: 4-3-3
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
5: 1-1-1
Second-up
4: 2-1-0
Third-up
4: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
4: 0-1-0
Track Doomben
1: 0-1-0
Track Canterbury
1: 1-0-0
Track Tuncurry
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
6: 0-0-1
Distance 1520m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1250m
2: 1-0-1
Going Good
14: 2-2-2
Going Heavy
6: 0-0-1
Going Soft
9: 2-1-0
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 30% better than Career Avg.
Hot Jockey
Positive
Luke Rolls in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 43%
Improver
Positive
Poised to improve on recent form here
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Freshened. Put in some big strides late at Port Macquarie. Usually gets back. Could give some cheek at odds.
ILB
Managed to run into 3rd last start at Port Macquarie. Will be motoring home late. Will not be far away.
RP
Missed out by half a length at Port Macquarie when ahead of a couple of these four weeks ago upped to this trip; produced a string of consistent efforts; needs considering as recent performance was encouraging.
RSIS
Ran home into 3rd last run at Port Macquarie. Shows very good finishing pace. Strong claims.
Career
26: 4-2-5
Rating · IRD
82
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
4: 0-1-0
Second-up
3: 0-0-0
Third-up
3: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
3: 1-0-1
Track Hawkesbury
1: 0-0-0
Track Randwick
2: 0-0-0
Track Tuncurry
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1000m
3: 1-1-0
Distance 1106m
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1200m
7: 1-0-1
Going Heavy
4: 0-1-0
Going Soft
11: 2-0-2
Going Good
11: 2-1-3
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 27%
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
No match but kept working home to finish among the placings at Taree. Has an adverse draw. New to Kempsey. Others with more appeal.
ILB
Nice effort when finishing 3rd last run at Taree. Jockey Madeline Owen is very comfortable steering. Should be rolling forward early from the wide alley.
RP
Was on the premises (finished third of ten) over 6½f at Taree (handicap) 21 days ago when just behind Zaru.
RSIS
Managed to run 3rd beaten by just over 3L last time at Taree. Should be rolling forward early from the wide stall. Madeline Owen has multiple wins aboard.
Career
42: 7-4-4
Rating · IRD
77
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
7: 2-1-0
Second-up
6: 1-1-1
Third-up
6: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
5: 2-1-1
Track Lismore
2: 0-1-1
Track Coffs Harbour
4: 0-2-0
Track Glen Innes
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1640m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1900m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1800m
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
9: 3-1-0
Going Soft
15: 1-1-3
Going Good
18: 3-2-1
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 8% POT in L100 Runners
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Imprv Needed
Negative
Would need to lift here to feature
AAP
Finished well down the track in (Bm68) at Eagle Farm last outing. Drawn to get a soft run. Acts on all surfaces. One for multiples.
ILB
Was $81.00 and couldn't maintain the pace when 12th last time at Eagle Farm and stepping up to a higher level. Gets some weight taken off. Rough chance today.
RP
Finished last of 12 at Eagle Farm two weeks ago; grade looks suitable; can't be ruled out if finding his best form.
RSIS
Odds of 80/1 and faded to finish 12th last time at Eagle Farm and challenged by more formidable competitors. Dropping weight.
Career
15: 3-2-3
Rating · IRD
83
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
4: 1-1-1
Second-up
3: 0-1-1
Third-up
3: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
3: 1-0-1
Track Tuncurry
1: 1-0-0
Track Armidale
1: 1-0-0
Track Canberra
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1300m
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1400m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1500m
3: 0-0-0
Going Good
7: 1-1-1
Going Heavy
2: 0-1-1
Going Soft
6: 2-0-1
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 25% in Last 100 Rides
Key Rider
Positive
Ben Looker 31% above market expected in L100 Rides
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Blinkers Off
Positive
Blinkers coming off this start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
First-up (16-weeks). Not knocked around in recent tickover trial at Beaumont. Can go forward. Hard to make a case beyond the minors fresh in this affair.
ILB
First run back from a break. At $71.00 was well beaten when 11th last start at Grafton but competing in a less challenging grade. Keep safe.
RP
Finished last of 11 over 1m at Grafton (handicap) four months ago; he can be competitive at this level; should go well if replicating the best of his form.
RSIS
First run back from a break. At 70/1 folded up in the straight when 11th last time at Grafton but up against a less challenging field. Watch for a sign in the market.
Career
11: 4-2-2
Rating · IRD
94
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
2: 1-1-0
Second-up
1: 1-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Lismore
1: 0-0-0
Track Coffs Harbour
3: 3-0-0
Track Ballina
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1350m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1000m
3: 1-2-0
Distance 1190m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
4: 2-0-1
Going Heavy
3: 2-0-0
Going Soft
4: 0-2-1
Stable In Form
Positive
Stable going well. Out performing market by 29%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 11% POT in L100 Runners
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
In Form
Positive
Racing in top form recently
Down In Weight
Positive
Drops 5.5kg from LS run
AAP
Handy competitor. Ridden in back half, strong late to fill the minors (Bm66) at Beaumont. Has won multiple times in wet. Key contender.
ILB
Ran on strongly when 3rd beaten by 1 1/4L last run at Newcastle but rising in grade. Grady Spokes has been successful before and dropping weight. Attracts support.
RP
Proven that he knows how to get his head in front (seeking a fifth career win); close up behind Golden Honour when third at Beaumont last week upped to 6½f; leading claims.
RSIS
Good performance to run into 3rd last time at Newcastle but matched against tougher rivals. Will appreciate the heavy going with 2 wins from 3 starts. Should go close.
Career
18: 2-3-1
Rating · IRD
89
Speed map
Leader
First-up
5: 0-1-0
Second-up
3: 0-0-0
Third-up
3: 1-1-0
Fourth-up
3: 0-1-0
Track Goulburn
1: 1-0-0
Track Kembla Grange
2: 0-1-0
Track Rosehill
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1550m
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1000m
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1100m
5: 0-1-0
Going Heavy
2: 0-1-0
Going Soft
9: 2-1-0
Going Good
7: 0-1-1
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Now 4 weeks between runs. Ex Matthew Dale in NSW. Sound two back in a Benchmark 72. Led, soon under pressure and dropped off at Canberra.
ILB
Jumped at $2.15 and folded up in the straight when 8th last time at Canberra. Racing for a new trainer. Won't be far away during the run. Gets a chance against these.
RP
Last of eight when favourite (Canberra) 28 days ago; runs for a new trainer here; this is competitive and others more likely.
RSIS
At 6/5 faded away to finish 8th last start at Canberra. First race for a new trainer. Will be positive in the run early. Can take this out.
Career
26: 5-5-0
Rating · IRD
78
Speed map
Leader
First-up
5: 1-0-0
Second-up
4: 1-0-0
Third-up
4: 0-2-0
Fourth-up
3: 0-1-0
Track Lismore
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-1-0
Track Grafton
9: 1-2-0
Distance 1106m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
3: 0-1-0
Distance 1212m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
16: 2-3-0
Going Heavy
3: 2-0-0
Going Soft
7: 1-2-0
Trainer SR
Negative
Aiden St Vincent striking at just 7%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 25%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Now 4 weeks between runs. Won (Bm66) Port Macquarie 27 Sep. Led, gave away final stages at Port Macquarie. Has some claims.
ILB
Odds of $11.00 and didn't threaten when 6th last time at Port Macquarie. Has good tactical speed and will be nicely positioned. Big improvement required to threaten these.
RP
Fair effort when separating a number of reopposing rivals at Port Macquarie last month; this looks a decent race so unlikely to do better than a supporting role.
RSIS
At 10/1 couldn't stay in touch when 6th last run at Port Macquarie. Will be pushing for a forward position early.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Midfield
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 21%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 27%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Win Drought
Negative
Not won for a while
AAP
Veteran who has seen better days. Settled midfield and never a serious challenger at Taree. Hard to warm to here.
ILB
Gave away some ground when 10th last time at Taree.
RSIS
Struggled with the pace when 10th last run at Taree.
Career
39: 4-6-3
Rating · IRD
76
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
7: 0-0-1
Second-up
6: 0-2-0
Third-up
5: 1-2-0
Fourth-up
4: 1-1-0
Track Taree
16: 2-4-1
Track Wyong
1: 0-0-0
Track Coffs Harbour
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1405m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1505m
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
11: 3-1-0
Going Soft
12: 1-2-0
Going Good
16: 0-3-3
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 27% lower than Career Avg.
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 36% Profit on Turnover
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 37% in L100 rides
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 27%
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Form At Track
Positive
2 time winner here at Kempsey
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Long winless run. Midfield, let down intently into the placings at Beaumont second-up. Value hope.
ILB
Picked up late ground when 2nd beaten by 1L last start at Newcastle but competing at a higher level of competition. Showing improvement in recent outings. Will find this tough.
RP
Solid effort when 25-1 second at Beaumont over 6½f (handicap) with Jade Trees just behind last week; this C&D holds no fears; easy enough to take on as not in the habit of winning recently.
RSIS
Finished with intent when 2nd last run at Newcastle and demonstrating upward trajectory in recent races. Facing stiffer opposition.
Career
21: 3-4-2
Rating · IRD
75
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
5: 0-2-0
Second-up
4: 2-0-0
Third-up
4: 1-1-0
Fourth-up
3: 0-0-0
Track Coffs Harbour
6: 1-3-0
Track Port Macquarie
4: 0-1-1
Track Taree
3: 1-0-0
Distance 1400m
4: 2-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
12: 1-3-2
Going Heavy
1: 1-0-0
Going Soft
8: 1-1-0
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Gap In Runs
Negative
Not raced for 40 days
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
5 weeks since last run. Went close at Coffs Harbour 13 Sep. Started $5.50 when safely held in Benchmark 66 company at Port Macquarie. Others rate stronger.
ILB
Was $5.50 and clearly outclassed when 8th last start at Port Macquarie but drawn the rails. Up against tougher opponents. In a lot of trouble.
RP
Beaten 6l over 7½f at Port Macquarie (handicap) six weeks ago.
RSIS
At 9/2 mediocre display when 8th last time at Port Macquarie but gets a favourable stall. Facing a stronger group of contenders.
Career
34: 4-5-3
Rating · IRD
75
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
5: 1-1-1
Second-up
4: 1-0-1
Third-up
4: 1-1-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Casino
1: 0-0-0
Track Inverell
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballina
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1115m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
6: 1-0-0
Distance 1500m
2: 0-1-0
Going Good
14: 2-2-3
Going Heavy
7: 0-1-0
Going Soft
13: 2-2-0
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 9%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -29% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 23%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 27%
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Improver
Positive
Poised to improve on recent form here
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Trailed pace and ran on gamely at Port Macquarie. One for multiples.
ILB
Did well to run into 2nd last run at Port Macquarie but matched against tougher rivals. Placed at every start this preparation and gets some weight relief.
RP
In good heart of late; beaten narrowly at Port Macquarie when ahead of Aye Aye Skipper last month; also engaged in race 5 at Kempsey.
RSIS
Strong effort to run into 2nd last run at Port Macquarie but up against a more competitive field. Been in the money 3 from 3 attempts lately.
Career
14: 1-1-3
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-1-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Toowoomba
1: 0-0-1
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-0-0
Track Lismore
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1890m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 2200m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1415m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
5: 0-0-2
Going Soft
5: 1-0-1
Going Synthetic
4: 0-1-0
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 21%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 27%
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
First-up (15-weeks). Ex Billy Healey in QLD. Form honest through last campaign. Finally put it all together at Ipswich over longer assignment before break. Back in Open company but could give some cheek at odds.
ILB
First run back from break. Was all too good winning by 1L last run at Ipswich but racing in stronger company. Change in trainer. Dropping in distance. Simply cannot have today.
RP
Scored by 1l over 1m1½f at Ipswich (handicap) opening his account in July; appears to be on the upgrade judged on two most recent runs; first run for stable; also engaged in race 5 at Kempsey.
RSIS
Fresh today. Scored a victory by 1L last start at Ipswich but racing against tougher rivals. Change in trainer and showing improvement in recent outings. Dropping in distance.
Career
39: 3-5-5
Rating · IRD
76
Speed map
Leader
First-up
6: 0-0-1
Second-up
5: 0-0-1
Third-up
5: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
5: 0-0-1
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-0
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-0-0
Track Taree
6: 0-2-0
Distance 1208m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1250m
2: 0-1-0
Distance 800m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
19: 1-2-1
Going Heavy
6: 2-0-0
Going Soft
14: 0-3-4
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 7%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -31% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 28%
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Only nailed late after dictating at Port Macquarie. Drawn to effect. Gets through rain affected ground. Can fill the minors here.
ILB
Although getting tired late still grabbed 3rd last start at Port Macquarie but up against a higher level of opposition. Will be positive in the run early.
RP
Not beaten far when third (not far behind Under Twenty Two) at Port Macquarie 12 days ago; in good heart of late; also engaged in race 8 at Kempsey.
RSIS
Was quite a handful for the competition when 3rd last run at Port Macquarie but competing in a higher grade. Has early pace and positions nicely. Goes down in weight.