Kempsey (NSW) horses tips & previews

8 Nov, 1:03 am AEDT

One race at a time: field, form guide and win/place odds for Kempsey (NSW), with capture times on every price.

Meeting — Fri 6 Nov, 11:00 am AEDT

Meetings · Fri, 6 NovKempsey (NSW)Change

Race 3 — Seabreeze Hotel South West Rocks Showcase Mdn Hcp 1250m · jumps Fri 6 Nov, 2:25 pm AEDT

Race preview

It's a maiden handicap puzzle at Kempsey on the heavy, and the betting suggests this could be anyone's race with the right luck. The field lines up over 1250m in fine weather, and Torpedo Tube sits shortest in the win market, followed by Prestige Fantastic, Saturn Rising, and In And Away. This is where four maiden runners will fight it out for bragging rights on heavy ground—exactly the kind of race where a freshly turned-out type or a horse finally finding its groove can spring a surprise.

Torpedo Tube looms as the market favourite, and the form figures back the theory: a Mdn Plate second at Port Macquarie on good ground in early October over 1000m was genuine, beaten less than a length. The jockey and trainer pairing of Mikayla Weir and Andrew Macdonald are running hot—44% above expectations in their last 100 rides—and the horse maps beautifully from barrier six in the off-pace role, an advantage worth 11% by the data here. That said, Prestige Fantastic shouldn't be ignored as the second fancy. Trained by A P Ball and ridden by Aaron Bullock, this ex-Mitchell Freedman Victorian finished eighth at Echuca last time before switching to this track. The move to 1250m and the heavy ground might suit better, though the stable is underperforming the market by 21% lately. In And Away, back for a second campaign after 16 weeks out, produced fair placings without winning last prep and returns for trainer A P Ball from barrier two with Grant Buckley. The horse has early speed—a noted edge at this circuit—and warrants attention fresh into the line-up, especially if the plan is an on-pace run.

Saturn Rising represents the story beat of redemption: sent out despised as an outsider, the horse failed to threaten at Scone second-up but trainer B M Lazzarini's record suggests another chance could pay dividends. The pace-mapping tells a yarn too: Saturn Rising leads the charge from barrier three, so there's every chance of dictating terms early. Scattering, from the ball one, faded last time according to the form notes—a concern on heavy ground where stamina matters. If punters fancy a roughie with genuine form merit and a jockey riding well above expectations, Nikody's Casper at barrier four under Jenny Duggan is worth a look; Duggan is 48% above market expected in the last 100 rides.

Race notes

MDN,MDN HCP,Maiden
HEAVY10
Fine
6 runners

Shortest win price

Prestige Fantastic (1)

2.20

Speed map

Back left · leaders right

Backmarker

11Torpedo Tube

Offmidfield

1Prestige Fantastic

Midfield

8Scattering

Offpace

5In And Away

Onpace

6Nikody's Casper

Leader

4Saturn Rising

Prestige Fantastic · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -22% POT in their L100 Races
Saturn Rising · Negative
Trainer SR
Brett Lazzarini striking at just 5%
In And Away · Negative
Trainer Recent
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 21%
Nikody's Casper · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 41% in Last 100 Rides

No.RunnerBarWgtLast 5WinPlace

1Prestige FantasticJ: Aaron Bullock·T: A P Ball558kg4 7 4 5 84: 0-0-0$2.20$1.30

Career

4: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

100

Speed map

Offmidfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo40%
Early Speed20%
Rating100%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Echuca
1: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-0
Track Bendigo
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1454m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1225m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0

Last starts

8Echuca1400m19 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD412.12L
5Kyneton1454m8 Oct 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · SOFT55.6L
4Bendigo1300m6 Sept 2026 · 4yo+ · SOFT52.6L
7Geelong1225m14 Aug 2026 · 4UP MDN-SW · HEAVY85.7L
4Seymour800m11 June 2025 · Barrier Trial4.5L

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -22% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 21%
Awkward Draw
Negative
May find this draw awkward

Comments

AAP

Ex Mitchell Freedman in Victoria. Finished out the back at Echuca. Switching to 1250m. Big watch.

ILB

Odds of $18.00 and disappointing display when 8th last run at Echuca. Happy to overlook that run. First start for a new trainer. Aaron Bullock rates highly aboard. Strong contender.

Could not manage better than eighth over 7f at Echuca (maiden) two weeks ago; first start for trainer; if replicating best previous efforts is a player.

RSIS

Started 17/1 and underperformed when 8th last start at Echuca. Expecting improvement here. Racing for a new trainer. Expected to be flashing home. Aaron Bullock is a smart booking. Like to be on it today.

2TerrawattScratched2––––

Career

1: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer40%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed20%
Rating40%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Scone
1: 0-0-0
Distance 900m
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

4Muswellbrook1000m21 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)1.8L
7Newcastle800m23 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)6.1L
8Scone900m31 May 2026 · 2Y HCP · HEAVY811.5L
5Newcastle1000m4 May 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)3.4L
4Beaumont800m8 Jan 2026 · Barrier Trial6.1L
6Wyong845m23 Dec 2025 · Barrier Trial10.7L

Insights

Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 30%
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Fronting up for second campaign (22-weeks). A long way off them at Scone on debut at double-figure odds. Further conditioned with 3 trials but would need to improve.

ILB

First up. Average performance when 8th last time at Scone but was a debutant last start. Will try to take advantage of the barrier. Racing over more ground.

Held on his debut in May (Scone, 4½f) despite blinkers seeming green; this only his second start in handicap company; back from an absence here; needs to make above-average progress.

RSIS

First run back after a break. Ordinary performance when 8th last run at Scone but was on debut last time. Can find a nice position from the draw.

3Gee Pee Jay AyeScratched9––––

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey50%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed20%
Rating20%
Closing Speed80%

Insights

Winkers On
Positive
Important gear change of winkers on

Comments

AAP

Fresh. A long way off them at Muswellbrook on debut at wide odds. Big lift needed from there.

ILB

Underperformed when 8th last time at Muswellbrook but was on debut last time.

RSIS

Disappointing effort when 8th last run at Muswellbrook but having second race start.

4Saturn RisingJ: Zac Wadick·T: B M Lazzarini357kg4 5 5 8 84: 0-0-0$5.00$2.30

Career

4: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating40%
Closing Speed20%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Port Macquarie
1: 0-0-0
Track Taree
1: 0-0-0
Track Scone
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

8Scone1200m23 Oct 2026 · Maiden · SOFT58.37L
8Port Macquarie1000m9 Oct 2026 · CTRY MDN-SW · GOOD47.84L
5Taree1262m5 May 2026 · CGE MDN-SW · HEAVY83.7L
5Grafton1100m19 Apr 2026 · CTRY MDN-SW · GOOD33.9L
4Taree1000m9 Apr 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(6)1.4L

Insights

Trainer SR
Negative
Brett Lazzarini striking at just 5%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 28%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Failed to threaten at Scone second-up as a despised outsider. Can have a major say.

ILB

Lost ground in the run home when 8th last run at Scone. Will be pushing for a forward position early. Could be in the mix.

Beaten 8l in eighth when close behind Torpedo Tube at Scone two weeks ago; this only his second start in handicap company; might have a say.

RSIS

Looked outclassed when 8th last run at Scone. Will be pushing for a forward position early. Can't leave out of your calculations.

5In And AwayJ: Grant Buckley·T: A P Ball256kg8 3 4 5 715: 0-1-1$8.00$3.20

Career

15: 0-1-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
Early Speed100%
Rating40%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Beaudesert
1: 0-0-0
Track Toowoomba
2: 0-0-0
Track Scone
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1250m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1650m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2000m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
6: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
3: 0-0-1
Going Soft
4: 0-0-0

Last starts

7Grafton1700m15 July 2026 · Maiden · GOOD42.8L
5Gosford1600m9 July 2026 · Maiden · HEAVY105.2L
4Newcastle1400m27 June 2026 · MDN-SW · SOFT74.8L
3Taree1250m5 June 2026 · MDN-SW · HEAVY84L
8Scone1300m15 May 2026 · Maiden · GOOD42.9L
6Coffs Harbour1205m8 May 2026 · Maiden · HEAVY102.5L
4Port Macquarie1200m26 Apr 2026 · Maiden · SOFT70.9L
7Tuncurry1005m18 Apr 2026 · MDN-SW · SOFT66.4L

Insights

Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 21%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Dist Drop
Negative
Distance decrease from last start
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Returns for second campaign (16-weeks). Produced some fair results last prep without winning. Warrants attention fresh in this line-up.

ILB

Racing fresh today after a break. At $101.00 finished 7th last run at Grafton and back in trip. Betting is the best guide.

Creditable effort to finish seventh, beaten just under 3l over 1m½f at Grafton (maiden) four months ago; yet to win in 15 starts.

RSIS

Back from a break. Was 100/1 and finished 7th last run at Grafton and back in trip.

6Nikody's CasperJ: Jenny Duggan·T: P Cheers456kg6 5 4 10 1219: 0-0-3$17.00$4.40

Career

19: 0-0-3

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating40%
Closing Speed20%

Record

First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Armidale
1: 0-0-0
Track Taree
10: 0-0-1
Track Tuncurry
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1614m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1008m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-1
Going Heavy
7: 0-0-1
Going Soft
10: 0-0-1

Last starts

12Port Macquarie1500m25 Oct 2026 · MDN-SW · SOFT614.1L
10Taree1400m16 Oct 2026 · Maiden · SOFT610.09L
4Taree1008m22 Sept 2026 · MDN-SW · SOFT64.38L
5Taree1400m23 June 2026 · CTRY MDN-SW · HEAVY84.2L
6Port Macquarie1210m14 June 2026 · 3Y MDN · SOFT75.7L
5Taree1250m5 June 2026 · MDN-SW · HEAVY85.4L
3Port Macquarie1200m27 May 2026 · CTRY MDN · HEAVY93.8L
6Taree1262m12 May 2026 · CTRY MDN-SW · HEAVY88.3L

Insights

Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 41% in Last 100 Rides
Key Rider
Positive
Jenny Duggan 48% above market expected in L100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 48%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 6% POT in L100 Runners
Hot Jockey
Positive
Jenny Duggan in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 48%
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Had plenty of chances. Finished well down the track in Mdn Plate at Port Macquarie last outing. Coming back in distance. Looks more a place prospect.

ILB

Jumped at $91.00 and looked outclassed when 12th last time at Port Macquarie. Has early speed and positions nicely. Can show up in this at odds.

Finished last of 12 over 7½f at Port Macquarie (maiden) last month; yet to win in 19 starts; others more appealing; also engaged in race 4 at Kempsey.

RSIS

Was 90/1 and tailed off to finish 12th last time at Port Macquarie. Has plenty of early pace.

7No SoundScratched7––––

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating100%
Closing Speed40%

Insights

Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 23% in Last 100 Rides
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out

Comments

AAP

Remains fresh. Well back and never sighted at Grafton at second appearance. Keener on others.

ILB

Started $6.50 and weakened to finish 9th last time at Grafton.

Held when ninth beaten 15l (Grafton) five weeks ago in a maiden; makes limited appeal.

RSIS

Started at 11/2 and couldn't maintain the pace when 9th last time at Grafton.

8ScatteringJ: Paige Fergusson-Smith·T: A P Ball156kg7 4 11 9 810: 0-2-0$13.00$3.90

Career

10: 0-2-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey80%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
Early Speed20%
Rating40%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-1-0
Third-up
2: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Taree
3: 0-1-0
Track Newcastle
1: 0-0-0
Track Tuncurry
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
3: 0-1-0
Distance 1280m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
6: 0-2-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
3: 0-0-0

Last starts

8Muswellbrook1280m19 Oct 2026 · CTRY MDN-SW · GOOD48.77L
9Tuncurry1200m11 Sept 2026 · MDN-SW · GOOD313.2L
11Newcastle1150m25 Aug 2026 · 4UP MDN HCP · SOFT67.3L
4Newcastle800m3 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)3.9L
7Taree1400m25 Feb 2025 · Maiden · GOOD44.61L
2Taree1300m9 Feb 2025 · Maiden · GOOD43.21L
2Port Macquarie1200m19 Jan 2025 · Maiden · GOOD41.21L
6Taree1000m7 Jan 2025 · Maiden · SOFT53.44L

Insights

Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 21%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out

Comments

AAP

Raced in back half and never likely at Muswellbrook. Usually gets back. First time around Kempsey. Others carry more punch.

ILB

Was $81.00 and fairly underwhelming when 8th last time at Muswellbrook. The large claim from Paige Fergusson Smith should help. Respect the betting.

Beaten a fair way when eighth in a maiden at Muswellbrook last month; has run ten times without getting off the mark and has lacked consistency of late; makes limited appeal.

RSIS

At 80/1 only fair when 8th last start at Muswellbrook. The large claim from Paige Fergusson Smith helps.

9Sunny QuartersScratched11––––

Career

6: 0-1-2

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating60%
Closing Speed60%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Taree
5: 0-1-2
Track Port Macquarie
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
3: 0-0-1
Distance 1250m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1262m
1: 0-1-0
Going Heavy
4: 0-1-1
Going Soft
2: 0-0-1

Last starts

7Port Macquarie1000m25 Oct 2026 · 3UP MDN HCP · SOFT67.16L
3Taree1000m16 Oct 2026 · CTRY MDN-SW · SOFT62.46L
5Taree1412m21 July 2026 · CTRY MDN · HEAVY89.1L
2Taree1262m9 July 2026 · CTRY MDN-SW · HEAVY103.6L
3Taree1250m30 June 2026 · CTRY MDN-SW · HEAVY94L
4Taree1000m5 June 2026 · CTRY MDN-SW · HEAVY83.1L

Insights

Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 54% lower than Career Avg.
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are under performing market expectations by -41%
Hot Trainer
Positive
Matthew Robinson in good form, out performing market 30%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 17% POT in L100 Runners
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 79% in L100 rides
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 27%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Increased Dist
Positive
Distance rise from last start

Comments

AAP

Produced some fair results this campaign. Settled midfield, lacked required acceleration at Port Macquarie second-up. Stripping fitter, commands attention here.

ILB

Came in 7th last start at Port Macquarie.

Finished seventh, beaten 7l, over 5f at Port Macquarie (handicap) last month; has found improvement of late; leading contender given she was third (albeit some way back) two starts ago.

RSIS

Came in 7th last time at Port Macquarie.

10TavernaScratched1––––

Career

16: 0-0-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer20%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed20%
Rating20%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
4: 0-0-0
Second-up
3: 0-0-0
Third-up
3: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
3: 0-0-0
Track Port Macquarie
5: 0-0-0
Track Wagga
4: 0-0-0
Track Kempsey
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1000m
4: 0-0-0
Distance 1106m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1190m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
11: 0-0-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
4: 0-0-0

Last starts

11Port Macquarie1000m25 Oct 2026 · 3UP MDN HCP · SOFT69.74L
11Port Macquarie1500m10 Oct 2026 · MDN HCP · GOOD47.02L
6Taree1615m22 Sept 2026 · CTRY MDN-SW · SOFT63.02L
5Coffs Harbour1618m13 Sept 2026 · MDN-SW · GOOD42.2L
3Kempsey1450m5 Sept 2026 · MDN · GOOD42.9L
7Tuncurry1200m24 Aug 2026 · CTRY MDN · SOFT74.3L
8Taree1000m14 Aug 2026 · CTRY MDN-SW · GOOD45.4L
10Port Macquarie1006m16 Mar 2026 · CTRY MDN · GOOD410.4L

Insights

Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Weight Rise
Negative
Carrying 4kg more than LS

Comments

AAP

Ridden back and never a factor at Port Macquarie. Hard to warm to.

ILB

Clearly outclassed when 11th last time at Port Macquarie but has the ideal gate.

Towards the rear of 14 over 5f at Port Macquarie (handicap) last month; losing run totals 16; she can be taken on; also engaged in race 4 at Kempsey.

RSIS

Just average when 11th last time at Port Macquarie but drawn by the rails.

11Torpedo TubeJ: Mikayla Weir·T: Andrew Macdonald656kg4 7 7 2 77: 0-1-1$3.40$1.65

Career

7: 0-1-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed20%
Rating60%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Taree
1: 0-0-0
Track Scone
1: 0-0-0
Track Newcastle
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1262m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1305m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-1-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
4: 0-0-1

Last starts

7Scone1200m23 Oct 2026 · Maiden · SOFT55.08L
2Port Macquarie1000m10 Oct 2026 · MDN-SW · GOOD40.86L
7Newcastle900m19 Sept 2026 · MID MDN-SW · GOOD45.55L
7Gunnedah1400m24 May 2026 · Maiden · SOFT54.9L
4Taree1262m5 May 2026 · CGE MDN-SW · HEAVY83.3L
5Tuncurry1305m18 Apr 2026 · MDN · SOFT64.9L
3Port Macquarie1008m28 Mar 2026 · MDN · SOFT54L
7Wyong845m5 Mar 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(6)14.5L

Insights

Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 44%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 11%
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Placed Mdn Plate at Port Macquarie 10 Oct. Sent out $31 when never got into the race at Scone. Big show with even breaks.

ILB

Came in 7th last start at Scone. Has the talent to rebound quickly. Always seems to find the line well. Holds a major chance.

Beaten 5l in seventh at Scone two weeks ago; shown recent signs of improvement; finished second two runs ago and too soon to write him off - has a shout.

RSIS

Ran 7th last time at Scone. Giving another go here. Has a great burst of pace late. Gets a solid chance here.

Odds correct as at Fri 6 Nov, 2:30 pm AEDT. Odds can change.

Past meetings

Sat 5 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 6 races