Shortest win price
Home Siren (8)
1.14
Welcome to Kempsey for the Steve Keir Memorial Showcase (Bm66) over the 1000m dash on a Heavy 10 track with fine weather overhead. The betting board has Home Siren leading the charge as the shortest runner in the win market, followed closely by A Touch From Fayt, Veecee, Telegraph, Savvyrocker, Debussy, and Brazen Brando rounding out the order. Punters looking for a yarn and a solid form line will find plenty to chew on as these contenders tackle the testing conditions this afternoon.
Taking a closer look at the form, Home Siren jumps from barrier seven for trainer Cassandra Schmidt with Luke Rolls in the saddle, bringing strong recent credentials including a dominant win at Port Macquarie over this exact distance where the runner controlled the race and kicked away nicely. While untested on the heavy going, the stable connection is hard to ignore. A Touch From Fayt sits next in the market order from barrier one for trainer T M Whittington and jockey Courtney Bellamy, coming off a consistent second at Port Macquarie in Benchmark 66 grade and boasting a dual win record at the 1000m trip that keeps them right in calculations.
Further down the race book, Veecee lines up for trainer Cassandra Schmidt with Grady Spokes steering from barrier three, dropping back in class after a sound fourth in Grafton Benchmark 82 company and boasting an effective fresh record. Telegraph represents A P Ball from barrier five with Grant Buckley aboard, returning from a sixteen-week break with form that handles the wet conditions well. With Home Siren mapped as the leader and speed maps showing various off-pace runners like A Touch From Fayt and Telegraph looking to capitalise, it sets up a fascinating battle for punters dissecting the form line.
Shortest win price
Home Siren (8)
1.14
Most career wins
Brazen Brando
12-13-15 from 108 starts
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Midfield
Offpace
Onpace
Leader
Veecee · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Debussy · Negative
Trainer A2E
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 21%
Telegraph · Negative
Trainer A2E
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 21%
Savvyrocker · Negative
Jockey Booking
Daniel Smith current POT is 19% below Career Avg.
Career
22: 4-6-3
Rating · IRD
97
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
5: 0-1-1
Second-up
4: 0-2-1
Third-up
3: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
3: 2-0-0
Track Warracknabeal
1: 1-0-0
Track Echuca
1: 0-0-0
Track Donald
1: 0-0-1
Distance 900m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
5: 0-1-2
Distance 1100m
4: 2-2-0
Going Good
16: 3-6-3
Going Soft
6: 1-0-0
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Blinkers On
Positive
Trainer has opted for the Blinkers on, take note
AAP
Raced in back half and was never in a position to mount a serious challenge at Eagle Farm. Soft tick, heavy query. Switching to 1000m. Can play a role with even breaks.
ILB
Was $12.00 and tailed off to finish 7th last time at Eagle Farm. Won't be far away during the run. Jockey Aaron Bullock adds value.
RP
Not beaten too far when seventh of nine over 6f at Eagle Farm (handicap) last month; easy enough to take on.
RSIS
At 11/1 faded away to finish 7th last start at Eagle Farm. Should muster plenty of early pace. Aaron Bullock is a smart booking.
Career
23: 2-4-4
Rating · IRD
82
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
6: 1-1-2
Second-up
4: 0-0-0
Third-up
3: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-1
Track Coffs Harbour
1: 0-0-0
Track Sandown
2: 0-1-0
Track Pakenham Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1007m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1100m
5: 1-0-1
Distance 1106m
1: 0-0-1
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
12: 1-2-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
First-up (30-weeks). Effective fresh and the class drop helps. Right in the mix fresh in this line-up.
ILB
First up after 30 weeks and hit the line well when 3rd beaten by 2 3/4L first up last preparation at Port Macquarie. Will be trying to topple them late. Definite claims.
RP
He can be competitive at this level; good effort when beaten into fourth by a neck with Jewels Statement just behind at Grafton in April; returns from a break today; warrants consideration if finding his best form.
RSIS
Resuming and came on strongly to finish 3rd resuming last preparation at Port Macquarie. Always seems to find the line well. Challenged by less formidable competitors. Rates as one of the key chances.
Career
57: 6-6-6
Rating · IRD
77
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
9: 2-1-2
Second-up
7: 1-0-1
Third-up
6: 1-0-1
Fourth-up
5: 1-2-0
Track Hawkesbury
1: 0-0-0
Track Muswellbrook
3: 0-0-0
Track Taree
8: 2-0-1
Distance 1205m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 900m
6: 1-1-1
Distance 1000m
32: 5-4-3
Going Good
29: 4-3-4
Going Heavy
8: 1-2-0
Going Soft
20: 1-1-2
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 21%
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 17%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Up In Weight
Negative
Goes up 6.5kg weight here
AAP
Unable to make an impression in rain affected going at Taree over this distance. Others more persuasive.
ILB
Jumped at $19.00 and looked outclassed when 6th last start at Taree but dropping in grade. Large claim helps and drawn nicely. Respect the betting.
RP
Generally modest form since handicap success at Taree in August; finished last of six at Taree three weeks ago; passed over.
RSIS
Was 18/1 and looked outclassed when 6th last time at Taree but up against a less competitive field. Large claim helps and has a positive stall. Could feature here.
Career
50: 7-5-7
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
9: 1-3-1
Second-up
7: 1-1-0
Third-up
7: 0-0-3
Fourth-up
5: 3-0-0
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-0-1
Track Donald
1: 0-0-1
Track Bairnsdale
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1007m
7: 1-1-1
Distance 1100m
4: 0-0-1
Distance 1350m
1: 0-0-1
Going Synthetic
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
22: 3-1-3
Going Heavy
11: 2-3-1
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 21%
Tricky Map
Negative
Runners with this map, underperform market by 7%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Resuming (16-weeks). Form sound this grade. Handles the wet and goes into everything fresh in this company.
ILB
Resumes after a spell. Started at $41.00 and came in 6th last time at Grafton. Needs significant improvement.
RP
Not beaten that far (Grafton) in July; a winner over this C&D; subpar since successful in a handicap at Taree in May; passed over.
RSIS
Back from a break. Started 40/1 and came in 6th last start at Grafton.
Career
25: 5-4-3
Rating · IRD
74
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
4: 2-1-1
Second-up
3: 1-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-1
Track Port Macquarie
1: 0-0-1
Track Taree
2: 0-1-0
Track Casino
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1005m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1015m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-1
Going Soft
16: 4-3-2
Going Good
7: 1-1-0
Dist Drop
Negative
Distance decrease from last start
AAP
Let-up (64-days). Failed to threaten at Coffs Harbour. Can make her presence felt fresh in this affair.
ILB
First up after 9 weeks and although fading at the finish still grabbed 2nd first up last preparation at Taree. Ben Looker is a bonus but coming back in distance.
RP
Behind A Touch From Fayt over 6f at Coffs Harbour (handicap) when beaten 7l (seventh of eight) in September; useful in this grade; hard to dismiss if excused most recent run as achieved handicap success two runs back.
RSIS
Resuming and claimed late when 2nd resuming last preparation at Taree. Ben Looker rates highly aboard but will be down in distance.
Career
7: 2-1-1
Rating · IRD
82
Speed map
Leader
First-up
2: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Third-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Coffs Harbour
1: 1-0-0
Track Port Macquarie
1: 0-0-0
Track Armidale
2: 1-1-0
Distance 900m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1100m
2: 1-1-0
Going Good
3: 1-0-0
Going Heavy
2: 1-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-1-1
Increased Dist
Positive
Distance rise from last start
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Resuming (24-weeks). Can pull out a run fresh whilst has looked forward enough in latest trials. Good draw. Not out of this.
ILB
First up today. Started at $2.90 and weakened under pressure when 7th last run at Port Macquarie.
RP
A big disappointment for supporters after finishing seventh over 6f at Port Macquarie (handicap) in May; has had some time off; definite chance as would have leading chance if back in the same form she showed when winning two starts ago.
RSIS
Fresh today. At 15/8 faded to finish 7th last time at Port Macquarie on a heavy track.
Career
34: 4-5-3
Rating · IRD
79
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
3: 0-0-1
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-0
Track Taree
9: 0-3-1
Track Bendigo
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1262m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1512m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
14: 2-1-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
15: 1-4-1
Jockey Booking
Negative
Daniel Smith current POT is 19% below Career Avg.
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 9%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 23%
Tricky Map
Negative
Runners with this map, underperform market by 7%
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Went home tamely in soft going at Port Macquarie at $19. Needs a form spike.
ILB
At $19.00 faded away to finish 6th last time at Port Macquarie. Displays good closing speed. Has claims.
RP
Didn't run too badly when out of the frame at Port Macquarie (beaten just over 4l, close behind A Touch From Fayt) over 5½f (handicap) last month; has struggled to factor since winning a handicap at Port Macquarie in April and been largely out of form in recent starts; may have to settle for supporting role.
RSIS
At 18/1 struggled with the pace when 6th last start at Port Macquarie. Has a great burst of pace late. Will be around the mark.
Career
3: 2-0-0
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Leader
First-up
2: 2-0-0
Track Scone
1: 0-0-0
Track Port Macquarie
2: 2-0-0
Distance 1000m
2: 2-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 1-0-0
Going Soft
1: 1-0-0
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 30% in Last 100 Rides
Hot Jockey
Positive
Luke Rolls in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 43%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 13%
Margin LS
Positive
Won by a big margin last start
Lightly Raced
Positive
Limited race experience but shown potential
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Controlled race and kicked away from them at Port Macquarie first run back. Handles soft, untested heavy. Dialled in and stays under strong notice.
ILB
Led from start to finish when winning by more than 3L last start at Port Macquarie and good career start. Has shown early pace in races to date. Has to be in the finish.
RP
Successful in clear-cut style (Port Macquarie) last month; has won two of her three career starts; much respected.
RSIS
Led from start to finish when winning by a margin of over 3L last start at Port Macquarie and showing consistent performance in races. Should come to hand quickly. Worth strong consideration.
Career
26: 4-3-2
Rating · IRD
75
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
2: 0-2-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballina
1: 1-0-0
Track Beaudesert
1: 1-0-0
Track Lismore
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1204m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1212m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1250m
1: 1-0-0
Going Heavy
4: 2-1-0
Going Soft
9: 1-2-1
Going Synthetic
2: 1-0-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Form Revival
Positive
Turning form around with last couple
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Racing consistently. Solid performance in defeat in the Country Boosted (Bm66) at Port Macquarie. Dual winner this trip and super fit from racing. Threat.
ILB
Amongst the placegetters when 2nd last run at Port Macquarie and has drawn the rails. Will relish the wet track with 2 wins from 4 runs. Limited possibility.
RP
Has been fairly consistent lately; was on the premises (runner-up, beaten just over 1l) over 5½f at Port Macquarie (handicap) last month.
RSIS
Hit the line well when 2nd last start at Port Macquarie and drawn by the rails. Goes well on a rain affected track with 2 wins from 4 starts.
Career
108: 12-13-15
Rating · IRD
74
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
9: 1-1-1
Second-up
7: 1-0-1
Third-up
6: 1-1-3
Fourth-up
4: 0-0-0
Track Hamilton
4: 1-0-0
Track Kyneton
5: 1-1-1
Track Coffs Harbour
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1005m
3: 0-2-0
Distance 1100m
27: 1-1-4
Distance 1125m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
44: 3-4-4
Going Heavy
20: 4-4-2
Going Soft
26: 2-3-6
Trainer SR
Negative
Brett Lazzarini striking at just 5%
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 28%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 32% Profit on Turnover
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 13%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Fresh
Positive
Freshened up. Had a break of 42-60 days
AAP
Let-up (48-days). Out of the placings but still acquitted himself well at Bowraville over this distance. Can't enthuse.
ILB
Back from a freshen up. At $4.40 finished 4th last start at Bowraville. Knockout chance.
RP
Finished fourth 48 days ago albeit only beaten just under 2l (Bowraville).
RSIS
Let up. Was 10/3 and ran 4th last start at Bowraville.