Shortest win price
Fancy Shoulder (3)
2.70
Welcome to Kempsey for the O’Donnell And Hanlon Showcase (Bm58) over 1250m on a Heavy 10 surface under fine weather conditions. As punters dissect the form line for this race, the win market order sees Fancy Shoulder heading the betting boards, closely followed by Under Twenty Two, Cool Az Aletta, and Jeunetos. It is shaping up as a fascinating tactical contest on a testing track where getting the trip right is everything.
Taking a closer look at the market leaders, Fancy Shoulder comes into this with strong claims prepared by Sally Taylor and steered by Courtney Bellamy from barrier 3, boasting a rating of 100 and a hot jockey-trainer combination. The form shows a handy second at Port Macquarie followed by a solid run at Newcastle. Meanwhile, Under Twenty Two for trainer R N Godbolt and jockey Daniel Smith sits right on the second line of betting from barrier 5, coming off a gritty placing at Port Macquarie where he trailed the speed and kept coming bravely.
For those hunting for a runner further down the market, Cool Az Aletta from the A P Ball stable jumps from barrier 8 with Grant Buckley in the saddle, and brings a past placing at this track plus a encouraging late effort at Newcastle. With early speed expected from runners like Fancy Shoulder leading the pack, this heavy going race should provide plenty of storytelling action for punters on course and at home.
Shortest win price
Fancy Shoulder (3)
2.70
Most career wins
Xtra Approval and Just One Look
8 each
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Midfield
Offpace
Onpace
Leader
Xtra Approval · Negative
Trainer Recent
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 21%
Under Twenty Two · Negative
Trainer Recent
Camp struggling with S/R just 9%
Fancy Shoulder · Positive
Hot J/T Combo
Combo are out performing market expectations by 65%
Jeunetos · Positive
Rider SR
Jockey recent POT is 25% better than Career Avg.
Career
85: 8-5-5
Rating · IRD
88
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
8: 0-0-1
Second-up
7: 1-0-0
Third-up
7: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
7: 1-2-0
Track Scone
2: 0-0-0
Track Kempsey
4: 1-1-0
Track CurrentTrack
4: 1-1-0
Distance 1262m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1425m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1257m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
28: 2-0-3
Going Heavy
24: 3-2-1
Going Soft
32: 3-3-1
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 21%
Tricky Map
Negative
Runners with this map, underperform market by 7%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Long Prep
Negative
Yet to find the winners stall this prep
AAP
Stationed midfield and never landed a blow at Taree 16 Oct. Looks up against it.
ILB
Was well beaten when 10th last start at Taree but competing in a less challenging grade. Paige Fergusson Smith takes a large claim. Can take this out.
RP
Finished last of ten at Taree last month; has won at this track; clear chance as shown promise on occasion.
RSIS
Didn't find the line when 10th last start at Taree but will appreciate the drop in class. Paige Fergusson Smith provides some weight relief. Represents value in this race.
Career
34: 4-5-3
Rating · IRD
94
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
5: 1-1-1
Second-up
4: 1-0-1
Third-up
4: 1-1-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Ballina
2: 1-0-0
Track Doomben
1: 0-0-0
Track Murwillumbah
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1205m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1412m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
2: 0-1-0
Going Good
14: 2-2-3
Going Heavy
7: 0-1-0
Going Soft
13: 2-2-0
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 9%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 23%
Tricky Map
Negative
Runners with this map, underperform market by 7%
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Awkward Draw
Negative
Would have liked a better draw
Improver
Positive
Poised to improve on recent form here
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Racing well in recent weeks. Trailed speed, kept coming but winner too strong at Port Macquarie. Drops to shorter trip. Makes strong appeal.
ILB
Displayed good finishing speed when 2nd beaten by 1/2L last start at Port Macquarie. Has plenty of early speed. Been in the money 3 from 3 attempts this campaign. Should put in a decent effort.
RP
Been running well of late; good effort when close up over 7½f at Port Macquarie (handicap) two weeks ago; has possibilities; also engaged in race 7 at Kempsey.
RSIS
Came on strongly to finish 2nd when beaten by 1/2L last run at Port Macquarie. Won't be far away during the run. Should go close.
Career
25: 3-5-2
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Leader
First-up
3: 1-0-1
Second-up
2: 0-0-1
Third-up
2: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Murray Bridge
1: 0-0-0
Track Gawler
1: 0-0-0
Track Balaklava
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1204m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1206m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
11: 2-2-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
13: 1-3-2
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 65%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 8% POT in L100 Runners
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
AAP
Form useful. Just missed at Port Macquarie 10 Oct. Ran on with some conviction from back half at Beaumont after a market ease. Makes a strong case in this company.
ILB
Odds of $7.00 and moved through the field into 4th last start at Newcastle. Has early speed and positions nicely. Producing consistent results this preparation. Will be in the finish.
RP
Finished fourth but only beaten just over 2l (Beaumont) last week; has run well in defeat a number of times; not been able to get her head in front lately so others more likely; also engaged in race 8 at Kempsey.
RSIS
At 6/1 inched into 4th last start at Newcastle. Has early pace and positions nicely. In good form since resuming from a break. Should give plenty of sight.
Career
14: 1-1-3
Rating · IRD
86
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-1-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Toowoomba
1: 0-0-1
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-0-0
Track Lismore
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1415m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1610m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
5: 0-0-2
Going Soft
5: 1-0-1
Going Synthetic
4: 0-1-0
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 21%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Resuming (15-weeks). Ex Billy Healey in QLD. Consistently around the mark last prep. Close in Maiden company at Sunshine Coast Poly first-up last campaign.
ILB
Racing fresh today after a break. Did a good job when winning by 1L last start at Ipswich and form has been improving over recent runs.
RP
Has found improvement of late; shed maiden tag over 1m1½f at Ipswich (handicap) when successful by 1l in July; first run for stable; despite that Ipswich success, may be vulnerable; also engaged in race 7 at Kempsey.
RSIS
Resuming after a break. Solid effort when winning by 1L last start at Ipswich and form has been improving over recent runs. First appearance for a new trainer.
Career
15: 1-2-2
Rating · IRD
86
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
3: 1-2-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-1
Track Eagle Farm
1: 0-0-0
Track Hawkesbury
2: 0-0-2
Track Murwillumbah
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1615m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
5: 1-1-0
Going Good
6: 0-0-1
Going Heavy
2: 1-0-0
Going Soft
7: 0-2-1
Increased Dist
Positive
Distance rise from last start
AAP
Let-up (69-days). Finished out the back at Kembla Grange as an outsider. Since trialled at Muswellbrook 21 Oct. Can make her presence felt fresh in this affair.
ILB
First up and was eating up the ground late when winning first up last preparation at Gosford. Displays good tactical speed. Great to see jockey Aaron Bullock taking the ride.
RP
Last of nine at Kembla Grange in August; grade looks suitable; should be on the premises with a bit more luck as excuses last time (crowded) and shown she can get her head in front.
RSIS
Resuming and charged home to win resuming last preparation at Gosford. Has good tactical pace and will be nicely positioned. Jockey Aaron Bullock is a plus.
Career
23: 2-1-1
Rating · IRD
84
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
5: 0-0-0
Second-up
4: 1-0-0
Third-up
3: 1-1-0
Fourth-up
3: 0-0-0
Track Tuncurry
2: 1-0-0
Track Bowraville
1: 0-0-0
Track Port Macquarie
4: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
3: 1-0-0
Distance 1262m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
11: 1-0-1
Going Heavy
5: 0-0-0
Going Soft
7: 1-1-0
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 25% better than Career Avg.
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Fresh
Positive
Freshened up. Had a break of 42-60 days
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Let-up (45-days). Won a 1450m Benchmark 50 at Kempsey two back. Rider found a forward spot at Taree but he put in a very lacklustre finish this level. Prefers firm going.
ILB
Back from a let up. Lost ground in the run home when 7th last run at Taree but has a good draw. Sound chance.
RP
Not disgraced when seventh over 7f at Taree (handicap) 45 days ago; has won here; this looks a decent race so others more persuasive.
RSIS
Freshened up. Lost ground in the run home when 7th last run at Taree but gets a favourable stall. Has won 2 from 4 attempts recently.
Career
58: 8-4-8
Rating · IRD
79
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
6: 0-0-1
Second-up
5: 0-0-2
Third-up
5: 1-0-1
Fourth-up
5: 1-2-0
Track Bathurst
1: 0-0-0
Track Port Macquarie
6: 1-0-2
Track Muswellbrook
6: 1-0-0
Distance 1150m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1205m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1400m
5: 2-1-0
Going Good
21: 3-1-1
Going Heavy
16: 3-0-4
Going Soft
19: 1-2-3
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 27%
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Experienced campaigner. Won in decisive fashion at Mudgee. Effective wet. A few runs under his belt this campaign but back up in class. Place.
ILB
Showed promise when winning by 1 3/4L last time at Mudgee. Should jump out and bowl along. Others are more appealing.
RP
Successful by just under 2l at Mudgee over 7f (handicap) two weeks ago; a winner over C&D; needs to be respected.
RSIS
Bold effort to win by 1 3/4L last run at Mudgee. Should muster plenty of early toe.
Career
33: 3-1-5
Rating · IRD
79
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Track Coffs Harbour
1: 0-0-0
Track Eagle Farm
4: 0-1-0
Distance 1600m
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1609m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1614m
2: 1-0-0
Going Good
15: 1-1-1
Going Heavy
7: 2-0-2
Going Soft
11: 0-0-2
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 41% better than Career Avg.
Key Rider
Positive
Jenny Duggan 48% above market expected in L100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 48%
Trainer Form
Positive
In form stable, out performing market expectations 23%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 6% POT in L100 Runners
Key Jockey
Positive
Jenny Duggan winning at 29% POT in last 100 rides
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 13%
Well beaten LS
Negative
Not competitive last run
AAP
First-up (12-weeks). Could give some cheek at odds fresh in this company.
ILB
First up from a break. Was $21.00 and didn't attack the line when 11th last run at Taree and dropping in distance. Will be positive in the run early. Facing a difficult task.
RP
11th of 12 at Taree three months ago upped to 1m2f; record when fresh is not entirely persuasive and may be vulnerable.
RSIS
Resuming. Started 20/1 and weakened under pressure when 11th last run at Taree and dropping back to a shorter trip. Should muster plenty of early pace.
Career
18: 1-2-2
Rating · IRD
90
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-1-0
Third-up
2: 0-1-1
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-1
Track Taree
5: 0-1-1
Track Scone
1: 0-0-0
Track Newcastle
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1350m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1010m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
9: 0-1-1
Going Good
7: 0-1-1
Going Heavy
2: 1-0-0
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 21%
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Trimmed margin late at Beaumont. Placed only other time here. A few runs under his belt this campaign, could give some cheek at odds.
ILB
Chased well when 4th last run at Newcastle. Will be trying to topple them late. Genuine claims.
RP
Form lately has been a mixed bag; held when fourth of ten at Beaumont over 6½f (handicap) last week; this looks a fair heat so others more persuasive; also engaged in race 8 at Kempsey.
RSIS
Made some ground when 4th last run at Newcastle. Can go through the gears. Chance and can measure up.
Career
44: 1-1-0
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
5: 0-0-0
Second-up
4: 0-0-0
Third-up
4: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
4: 0-0-0
Track Kempsey
7: 0-0-0
Track Bowraville
2: 0-0-0
Track Port Macquarie
7: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
11: 0-0-0
Going Good
16: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
11: 1-1-0
Going Soft
15: 0-0-0
Jockey Booking
Negative
Violet Soulsby current POT is 39% below Career Avg.
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 1%
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 62%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 67% Profit on Turnover
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 61% in L100 rides
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 17%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
AAP
Found it tough since shaking his maiden and remains unplaced from 6 starts here. Regular under achiever.
ILB
Was $201.00 and couldn't stay in touch when 10th last time at Port Macquarie but has drawn to do little work. Has struggled so far this preparation. Most likely not today.
RP
Was held in tenth at Port Macquarie last month; he has struggled to find his best form recently; this looks a decent race so others more likely; also engaged in race 8 at Kempsey.
RSIS
Started at 200/1 and couldn't maintain the pace when 10th last run at Port Macquarie but can save some energy from the stall. Has struggled so far of late.