Kempsey (NSW) horses tips & previews

8 Nov, 1:03 am AEDT

One race at a time: field, form guide and win/place odds for Kempsey (NSW), with capture times on every price.

Meeting — Fri 6 Nov, 11:00 am AEDT

Meetings · Fri, 6 NovKempsey (NSW)Change

Race 2 — Pynx Cranes Showcase (Bm74) 1900m · jumps Fri 6 Nov, 1:50 pm AEDT

Race preview

Kempsey's serving up a real puzzle in the Pynx Cranes Showcase at 1:50 pm AEDT—a BM74 over 1900 metres on Heavy 10. The track's copped a battering and the market's got Brilliant Knight shortest, with Prince Is Game and Zou Big Boy breathing down the neck. This is the kind of heavy-ground slog where form holds firm and excuses dry up fast. Luke Rolls, who's been riding hot, partners Brilliant Knight, and the data says the kid's outperforming market expectations by 43 per cent. That's not small beer. Brilliant Knight's last two reads nicely enough—a placing at Port Macquarie on Good 4, then chased home over 2000 metres at Coffs Harbour on Soft 5. The comment reckons "handy competitor. Beaten a few lengths but found enough to fill the minors." With a Rating of 100, this one's got genuine substance to the support.

Prince Is Game sits second shortest and arrives in red-hot form—back-to-back wins at Taree and Port Macquarie. The yarn's compelling: just got there at Taree in choppy conditions, and the formline screams a horse that eats up rain-affected ground. Ben Looker's enjoying a 25 per cent better strike rate than his career average, and Prince Is Game boasted the fastest finishing sectionals at the last start. With a Rating of 90 and both wins coming within the past few starts, this is a horse building momentum exactly when it matters. Zou Big Boy leads the race from barrier six and shapes as the speed merchant here. The combo of Peter Graham and Ms L Selby has been outperforming market expectations by an eye-watering 2247 per cent—yes, really. Zou Big Boy maps well at Kempsey and was "racing well in recent weeks," though didn't quite seal the deal in Benchmark 58 company at Moree last time. Third-up records show form, and the Rating of 85 suggests this one belongs in the conversation.

He's A Copy Boy, out to six starts from barrier two with Grace Palmer aboard, carries genuine appeal on the quick back-up from Taree. Palmer's POT is running 24 per cent better than her career average, and the AAP comment flags: "Safely held but not totally disgraced on a soft deck... More ground a plus." This 1900-metre journey ticks that box, and He's A Copy Boy third-up has a form profile worth noting. It's a race where the heavy ground will sort the sheep from the goats, and these three form a tight, credible cluster at the pointy end.

Race notes

BM74,BM74 HCP,Benchmark 74
HEAVY10
Fine
6 runners

Shortest win price

Brilliant Knight (3)

2.25

Most career wins

Casino Bear

8-5-5 from 50 starts

Speed map

Back left · leaders right

Backmarker

2He's A Copy Boy

Midfield

4Sound And Vision
6Prince Is Game

Offpace

3Brilliant Knight

Onpace

1Casino Bear

Leader

5Zou Big Boy

Casino Bear · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
He's A Copy Boy · Positive
Rider SR
Jockey recent POT is 24% better than Career Avg.
Brilliant Knight · Positive
Rider SR
Jockey recent POT is 30% better than Career Avg.
Sound And Vision · Negative
Jockey Booking
Madeline Owen current POT is 13% below Career Avg.

No.RunnerBarWgtLast 5WinPlace

1Casino BearJ: Paige Fergusson-Smith·T: P Cheers165kg4 5 11 12 1050: 8-5-5$17.00$4.20

Career

50: 8-5-5

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey80%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed20%
Rating40%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
6: 0-0-1
Second-up
4: 0-0-0
Third-up
4: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
3: 0-0-1
Track Grafton
4: 2-0-0
Track Newcastle
1: 1-0-0
Track Randwick
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1007m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
4: 1-0-0
Distance 1450m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
27: 4-3-3
Going Heavy
7: 0-2-0
Going Soft
16: 4-0-2

Last starts

10Taree1600m16 Oct 2026 · HCP · SOFT613L
12Port Macquarie2000m9 Oct 2026 · 3UP · GOOD410.99L
11Port Macquarie1808m27 Sept 2026 · Benchmark 82 · GOOD412.2L
5Rosehill2000m31 Jan 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD45.9L
4Randwick2000m24 Jan 2026 · 3UP BM88 HCP · GOOD41.8L
3Rosehill2000m7 Dec 2025 · 4UP BM78 HCP · GOOD42.3L
4Rosehill2000m29 Nov 2025 · 4UP SW · GOOD41.8L
2Wyong2100m16 Nov 2025 · 3yo+ · GOOD40.6L

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 6% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 19%
Needs To Imp
Negative
Finished towards the tail last start
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Form At Track
Negative
Yet to win here
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Imprv Needed
Negative
Would need to lift here to feature

Comments

AAP

Well back and never sighted at Taree at huge odds. Not fancied.

ILB

Was $151.00 and faded to finish 10th last start at Taree but drawn well. Has good tactical speed and will be nicely positioned. Needs a mighty effort to win this.

Finished tenth of 12 over 1m at Taree (handicap) when dropped in distance 21 days ago; every chance with a bit more luck as excuses last time (crowded) and he's shown signs of promise here and there.

RSIS

At 150/1 didn't attack the line when 10th last time at Taree but can save some energy from the stall. Should be going forward early.

2He's A Copy BoyJ: Grace Palmer·T: Samantha Mcguren256kg1 2 8 5 649: 6-5-5$8.00$3.10

Career

49: 6-5-5

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo60%
Early Speed100%
Rating40%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
6: 0-1-1
Second-up
5: 0-0-1
Third-up
4: 2-0-0
Fourth-up
3: 1-2-0
Track Ballina
1: 0-0-0
Track Scone
1: 0-0-0
Track Grafton
12: 3-3-0
Distance 1610m
4: 2-1-0
Distance 1620m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1308m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
21: 4-1-3
Going Heavy
11: 1-2-0
Going Soft
17: 1-2-2

Last starts

6Taree1600m16 Oct 2026 · HCP · SOFT67.75L
5Taree1615m22 Sept 2026 · BM66 · SOFT62.41L
8Grafton1400m7 Sept 2026 · BM66 · GOOD43L
2Casino1400m8 Aug 2026 · BM87 HCP · GOOD40.1L
1Grafton1610m12 July 2026 · Benchmark 66 · GOOD4-0.8
8Casino1300m25 June 2026 · BM66 · SOFT79.7L
5Grafton1205m6 June 2026 · BM58 · SOFT63.2L
9Taree1400m10 Mar 2026 · BM66 · SOFT66.6L

Insights

Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 24% better than Career Avg.
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -21% POT in their L100 Races
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 6% POT in L100 Runners
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Weight Increase
Negative
Rises 5kg now

Comments

AAP

Safely held but not totally disgraced on a soft deck at Taree at huge odds. More ground a plus. Right in the mix.

ILB

Odds of $101.00 and came in 6th last start at Taree but gets a favourable barrier. Likely to get back in the run. Grace Palmer provides some weight relief. Difficult to warm to at present.

Found life tough when 8l back in sixth at Taree over 1m (handicap) last month; probably unlikely to trouble the principals as this looks a fair heat.

RSIS

Started at 100/1 and came in 6th last start at Taree but can find a nice position from the draw. Will be giving the leaders a big start.

3Brilliant KnightJ: Luke Rolls·T: Cassandra Schmidt455.5kg3 3 5 3 313: 2-2-4$2.25$1.30

Career

13: 2-2-4

Rating · IRD

100

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
Early Speed20%
Rating100%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
3: 1-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-1-0
Third-up
2: 0-1-1
Fourth-up
2: 1-0-1
Track Muswellbrook
2: 0-1-0
Track Rosehill
1: 0-0-0
Track Taree
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1512m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1720m
1: 0-1-0
Going Soft
4: 0-1-3
Going Good
7: 1-1-1
Going Heavy
2: 1-0-0

Last starts

3Port Macquarie1500m10 Oct 2026 · CL3 · GOOD42.31L
3Coffs Harbour2000m7 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT56.6L
5Grafton2200m15 July 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD44.7L
3Grafton2230m5 July 2026 · 3UP QLTY · SOFT51.3L
3Port Macquarie1512m14 June 2026 · CL2 · SOFT73.5L
8Rosehill1500m30 May 2026 · 3yo+ · HEAVY97.8L
1Taree1412m12 May 2026 · CL2 BM62 · HEAVY80L
4Port Macquarie1000m26 Apr 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(7)2.6L

Insights

Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 30% better than Career Avg.
Hot Jockey
Positive
Luke Rolls in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 43%
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Handy competitor. Beaten a few lengths but found enough to fill the minors at Port Macquarie. Makes strong appeal.

ILB

Attacked the line when 3rd beaten by 2 1/4L last run at Port Macquarie. Tongue tie go on for the first time. The testing material.

Has largely been consistent of late; went down by 2½l when third over 7½f at Port Macquarie (handicap) four weeks ago; recent effort was creditable so rates a likely contender.

RSIS

Displayed good finishing pace when 3rd last start at Port Macquarie. Interesting to see the tongue strap go on for the first time. Will attract plenty of interest.

4Sound And VisionJ: Madeline Owen·T: Ms K Owen355kg8 2 10 1 470: 7-6-1$7.00$2.80

Career

70: 7-6-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo40%
Early Speed100%
Rating40%
Closing Speed60%

Record

First-up
11: 0-0-0
Second-up
10: 1-1-0
Third-up
10: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
9: 1-1-0
Track Taree
14: 1-2-0
Track Canterbury
4: 0-0-0
Track Newcastle
12: 1-1-1
Distance 1512m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1515m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
25: 1-1-0
Going Heavy
10: 3-1-0
Going Soft
35: 3-4-1

Last starts

4Newcastle2100m26 Oct 2026 · BM66 · SOFT51.29L
1Grafton2200m13 Oct 2026 · BM58 · HEAVY8-0.02
10Port Macquarie1808m27 Sept 2026 · Benchmark 82 · GOOD48.19L
2Tuncurry2100m11 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD30.2L
8Tamworth2100m25 Aug 2026 · BM66 · SOFT53.5L
4Taree2000m14 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD42.9L
4Quirindi2000m4 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD32.2L
6Grafton1700m19 July 2026 · Benchmark 58 · SOFT53.4L

Insights

Jockey Booking
Negative
Madeline Owen current POT is 13% below Career Avg.
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 10%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Not far off them in the small field at Beaumont. Winner at track and distance. Deep into his campaign, among the dangers.

ILB

Started at $9.50 and looked flat when 4th last run at Newcastle. Madeline Owen is a key booking. Can't recommend.

Has winning track form; solid effort over 1m2½f at Beaumont (handicap) last week; unlikely to achieve more than just a supporting role with a few rivals in good form.

RSIS

Odds of 17/2 and below par when 4th last start at Newcastle. Good to see Madeline Owen is jumping on.

5Zou Big BoyJ: Peter Graham·T: Ms L Selby655kg4 9 1 4 530: 4-5-3$5.50$2.45

Career

30: 4-5-3

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey80%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating60%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-1-0
Third-up
2: 1-1-0
Fourth-up
2: 1-0-0
Track Tamworth
2: 0-0-1
Track Doomben
2: 0-0-1
Track Sunshine Coast
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1410m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1420m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
13: 0-3-1
Going Heavy
6: 3-0-0
Going Soft
11: 1-2-2

Last starts

5Moree1400m30 Oct 2026 · Benchmark 58 · SOFT52.95L
4Tamworth1600m28 Sept 2026 · BM58 · GOOD40.94L
1Taree1615m22 Sept 2026 · BM66 · SOFT6-0.06
9Coffs Harbour1618m13 Sept 2026 · BM58 · GOOD47.8L
4Grafton1410m29 Aug 2026 · BM50 · SOFT53.9L
3Tamworth2100m3 July 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT71.9L
5Coffs Harbour1505m28 June 2026 · HCP · HEAVY102.5L
2Inverell1600m19 June 2026 · Benchmark 58 · GOOD40.1L

Insights

Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 2247%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 10%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Fitness
Positive
At peak fitness backing up
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Down In Weight
Positive
Drops 5.5kg from LS run

Comments

AAP

Backing up quickly. Racing well in recent weeks. Didn't quite finish it off the last bit in Benchmark 58 company at Moree. Right in this.

ILB

On a quick back up. Started $7.00 and couldn't stay in touch when 5th last start at Moree. Can make a comeback and going over more ground. Chance and can measure up.

Produced a string of consistent efforts and he can be competitive at this level; finished fifth last week albeit only beaten 3l (Moree) over 7f (handicap); more than capable if on song so looks like a player.

RSIS

On a short turnaround. Started 6/1 and weakened under pressure when 5th last time at Moree. Should bounce back and facing a rise in trip. Competing in a higher grade. Represents value at a price.

6Prince Is GameJ: Ben Looker·T: M J Robinson555kg2 6 10 1 132: 5-3-2$4.00$1.95

Career

32: 5-3-2

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo60%
Early Speed100%
Rating60%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
4: 0-0-1
Second-up
3: 0-0-1
Third-up
3: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
3: 1-0-0
Track Taree
16: 3-2-1
Track Scone
2: 0-0-0
Track Wyong
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1280m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1312m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1800m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
10: 1-0-1
Going Heavy
9: 2-1-1
Going Soft
13: 2-2-0

Last starts

1Taree2000m16 Oct 2026 · BM66 · SOFT6-0.47
1Port Macquarie1800m10 Oct 2026 · BM58 · GOOD4-2.29
10Tuncurry2100m11 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD35.5L
6Taree1600m31 Aug 2026 · BM58 · SOFT62.6L
2Taree2000m30 June 2026 · BM58 · HEAVY91.1L
8Wyong2025m7 June 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT56.9L
6Scone2200m31 May 2026 · BM74 · HEAVY87.7L
1Taree2018m12 May 2026 · BM58 · HEAVY8-3.7

Insights

Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 25% better than Career Avg.
Key Rider
Positive
Ben Looker 31% above market expected in L100 Rides
Trainer Form
Positive
In form stable, out performing market expectations 30%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 17% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 22%
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Consecutive Wins
Positive
Has strung together a few races in a row

Comments

AAP

Striving for hat-trick. Just got there it Taree in choppy conditions. Gets through rain affected ground and stays under strong notice.

ILB

Ran over the top of them when winning last run at Taree. Undefeated last 2 attempts. Major player who should go very close.

Got home in front by half a length over 1m2f at Taree (handicap) last month; aiming to complete a hat-trick.

RSIS

Picked up late to win last run at Taree. Unbeaten last 2 attempts. Strong claims.

7Nature BoyScratched7––––

Career

154: 16-12-23

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey50%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo60%
Early Speed100%
Rating80%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
3: 0-0-1
Second-up
2: 0-0-1
Third-up
2: 0-1-1
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Grafton
47: 7-5-9
Track Coffs Harbour
8: 0-0-2
Track Walcha
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
15: 1-3-1
Distance 1618m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1710m
1: 0-0-0
Going Unknown
1: 0-0-0
Going Firm
3: 1-1-0
Going Good
69: 5-3-9

Last starts

3Ballina2600m2 Nov 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT77.57L
4Mudgee2000m24 Oct 2026 · BM50 · GOOD44.61L
4Grafton2220m29 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT65.48L
10Coffs Harbour1618m13 Sept 2026 · BM58 · GOOD48.7L
9Taree2000m30 June 2026 · BM58 · HEAVY916.6L
1Ballina1900m21 June 2026 · BM82 HCP · HEAVY10-3.7
4Tamworth2100m15 June 2026 · BM66 · SOFT56.7L
5Grafton2245m6 June 2026 · BM74 (71) · SOFT67.9L

Insights

Dist Drop
Negative
Distance decrease from last start
Track And Dist
Negative
Has a poor record at this track and trip
Ready To Strike
Positive
Can be rewarded for recent consistent form

Comments

AAP

On a short back-up. Fair way from the winner but battled home into third at Ballina over longer assignment. Steep class rise. Needs to lift again here.

ILB

Backing up quickly. Claimed late when 3rd last run at Ballina but taking on stronger opponents. Expecting to settle positively. Back to a shorter trip.

Has hit the frame in several recent runs; beaten 8l when third of six over 1m5f at Ballina (handicap) on Monday; he can be taken on.

RSIS

On a short back up. Peaked on the run when 3rd last run at Ballina but racing in stronger company. Has shown early pace in races to date.

Odds correct as at Fri 6 Nov, 1:50 pm AEDT. Odds can change.

Past meetings

Sat 5 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 6 races