Shortest win price
Genrichero (7)
2.50
Welcome to Warrnambool for the Lady Bay Resort benchmark 62 handicap over the staying trip of 2350 metres. Under an overcast sky and on a good 4 track, punters have stepped up to sort out this tricky field. Looking at the early win market order, Genrichero has been kept safe at the head of affairs, closely followed by Jenny The Beaver, First Innings, and Callawadda holding down the next lines in the betting ring. It is a fascinating staying test where the tactical speed map shows Genrichero and Haiiro looking to roll forward as leaders, whilst a handful of rivals settle back in the offmidfield pack waiting for the sprint home at 5:00 pm AEDT.
Diving into the form behind those shorter prices, Genrichero comes into this off a 50-day let-up after transferring to trainer Shane Jackson. This galloper placed third at Morphettville and Mornington prior to the break, and also finished third in a recent Mortlake jumpout on the home track, suggesting the freshen-up will suit. Jenny The Beaver lines up here for Ben O'Farrell with a record of two placings from two attempts at this venue, though she went home tamely at Geelong on Cup day. Callawadda brings different staying credentials for Brady Cross, having raced unhurried early before letting down with conviction second-up at Echuca, and the senior jockey jumping back on looks a genuine positive for the campaign.
Further down the market, First Innings for Harry Lafferty comes off a terrific effort when just shaded at Horsham on October 18, showing a handy turn of foot despite giving away a start, and is noted as having early speed which could prove an advantage on this circuit. With speed groups well scattered and several stables making targeted raids down to the coast, punters have plenty of form lines to weigh up in what promises to be a terrific betting race.
Shortest win price
Genrichero (7)
2.50
Most career wins
Dandruff
6-0-7 from 36 starts
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Offmidfield
Midfield
Offpace
Onpace
Leader
First Innings · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Callawadda · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 24% in Last 100 Rides
Jenny The Beaver · Negative
Trainer Recent
Camp struggling with S/R just 3%
No Rumours · Negative
Jockey Booking
Campbell Rawiller current POT is 29% below Career Avg.
Rating · IRD
83
Speed map
Midfield
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
AAP
Terrific effort when just shaded at Horsham 18 Oct. Gives a start has a handy turn of foot.
ILB
Was agonizingly close last time at Horsham. Needs to improve.
RP
Ran a good race in defeat when a close second over 1m1f at Horsham (handicap) last month; hasn't won for a while.
RSIS
Close to claiming the win last start at Horsham.
Rating · IRD
99
Speed map
Midfield
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 24% in Last 100 Rides
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 20% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 27%
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Unhurried early before letting down with some conviction at Echuca second-up. Sharper now and senior jock back on a plus.
ILB
Made some ground late when 3rd last run at Echuca but racing against tougher rivals. Should go close.
RP
Beaten 6l into third (1m2½f) at Echuca when ahead of Phoenician last month; big chance.
RSIS
Made some ground late when 3rd beaten by 5 1/2L last time at Echuca but facing a stronger group of contenders. Solid chance.
Career
27: 4-6-4
Rating · IRD
93
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
4: 0-1-1
Second-up
3: 0-0-1
Third-up
3: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-1-0
Track Pakenham
1: 0-0-1
Track Donald
1: 0-0-0
Track Bendigo
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1800m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2000m
2: 1-0-1
Going Good
14: 1-4-2
Going Heavy
5: 1-2-2
Going Soft
8: 2-0-0
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 3%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 41%
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Went home tamely at Geelong on Cup day at $51. Placed two from two here. Has some claims.
ILB
Finished 7th last start at Geelong and will have to carry more weight. Nice price for the value seekers.
RP
She can be competitive at this level; not beaten too far when seventh of 11 upped to this distance (Geelong) last month; can't be ruled out as is no stranger to the winners' enclosure.
RSIS
Came in 7th last start at Geelong and will have to carry extra weight. Can lift.
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Midfield
Jockey Booking
Negative
Campbell Rawiller current POT is 29% below Career Avg.
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 67%
Hot Trainer
Positive
Paul Preusker in good form, out performing market 78%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 63% POT in L100 Runners
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 29% in L100 rides
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Back and never a chance at Bendigo on Cup day. Comes into calculations on a fairer surface.
ILB
At $13.00 didn't find the line when 9th last time at Bendigo. Looking for an improved run. Should go very close.
RP
Finished ninth of 12 (Bendigo) last Wednesday upped to this trip; not always shown an awful lot since winning a handicap at Hobart in February; a few rivals look in good form so others more likely.
RSIS
Started 12/1 and didn't attack the line when 9th last time at Bendigo. Should bounce back. Must be considered here.
Career
22: 3-2-4
Rating · IRD
89
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
5: 1-1-0
Second-up
4: 1-0-2
Third-up
3: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Flemington
1: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
2: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
2: 0-0-0
Distance 2108m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 2350m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2400m
8: 2-1-1
Going Good
11: 2-2-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
10: 1-0-4
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -47% POT in their L100 Races
Hot Trainer
Positive
Paul Preusker in good form, out performing market 78%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 63% POT in L100 Runners
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Blinkers Off
Positive
Blinkers coming off this start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Imprv Needed
Negative
Would need to lift here to feature
AAP
Raced in back half and never likely at Bendigo second-up. All the better, capable of making an impact.
ILB
Was $31.00 and faded away to finish 11th last start at Bendigo. Interesting gear change of blinkers off first time. Watch the betting.
RP
Finished 11th of 12 last Wednesday at Bendigo upped to this trip; meeting some horses in good form and only limited appeal.
RSIS
At 30/1 didn't threaten when 11th last time at Bendigo. Blinkers go off for the first time. Could feature here.
Career
36: 6-0-7
Rating · IRD
93
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
3: 0-0-1
Second-up
2: 0-0-1
Third-up
2: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Wagga
2: 0-0-1
Track Kyneton
1: 0-0-0
Track Horsham
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2837m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 3200m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 2012m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
20: 4-0-4
Going Heavy
7: 1-0-1
Going Soft
9: 1-0-2
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 31% better than Career Avg.
Key Rider
Positive
Dean Yendall 34% above market expected in L100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 326%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 24% POT in L100 Runners
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Unable to make an impression at Albury. Super fit from racing, capable of making an impact.
ILB
Was $3.50 and weakened to finish 5th last start at Albury. Dean Yendall is a key booking. Has strong claims.
RP
Found life tough when 6l back in fifth over 1m2f at Albury (handicap) two weeks ago; meeting some horses in good form and can be taken on.
RSIS
Started 5/2 and didn't find the line when 5th last run at Albury. Dean Yendall rates highly aboard. Can go through the gears. One of the punters top hopes.
Career
35: 4-5-7
Rating · IRD
92
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
4: 0-1-1
Second-up
3: 0-0-1
Third-up
3: 0-1-1
Fourth-up
3: 0-1-0
Track Moonee Valley
3: 0-1-1
Track Kyneton
1: 0-0-0
Track Sale
3: 2-1-0
Distance 3080m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 2200m
2: 2-0-0
Distance 2400m
5: 1-0-0
Going Soft
10: 1-2-2
Going Good
22: 3-2-5
Going Heavy
3: 0-1-0
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 5% POT in L100 Runners
Fresh
Positive
Freshened up. Had a break of 42-60 days
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Long Prep
Negative
Yet to find the winners stall this prep
AAP
Let-up (50-days). Ex M M Laurie. Trained here now and finished third in reent Mortlake jumpout. Has some claims.
ILB
Freshened for this. Was outmatched at the end of the race when 3rd beaten by 2 1/4L last run at Mornington but back to a shorter trip. Gets a chance against these.
RP
Turned in a solid effort in defeat 50 days ago, when third at Mornington upped to 1m7½f; has been fairly consistent lately; first run for trainer; is a player if replicating most recent run.
RSIS
Freshened for this. Applied plenty of pressure when 3rd last time at Mornington but dropping in distance. Linda Meech usually performs well for the Shane Jackson stable. Up in weight. Price in this race is tempting to get involved.
Career
9: 2-2-2
Rating · IRD
91
Speed map
Leader
First-up
3: 1-1-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Flemington
1: 0-0-0
Track Kilmore
1: 1-0-0
Track Warrnambool
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1700m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1860m
2: 0-1-0
Distance 2000m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
7: 2-2-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-1
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 30% better than Career Avg.
Key Rider
Positive
Melissa Julius 41% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 5% POT in L100 Runners
Hot Jockey
Positive
Melissa Julius in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 41%
Needs To Imp
Negative
Finished towards the tail last start
Form At Track
Positive
1 time winner here at Warrnambool
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Failed to threaten at Avoca second-up. Form sound this level without winning. One for multiples.
ILB
Started at $16.00 and didn't attack the line when 9th last run at Avoca and up in weight. Has the speed to overcome the wide alley. Watch for a sign in the market.
RP
Has won at this course; tailed off over 1m1f at Avoca (handicap) three weeks ago; shown he can get his head in front so entitled to respect.
RSIS
At 15/1 faded to finish 9th last start at Avoca and will have to carry more weight. Should be rolling forward early from the wide draw. Betting is the best guide.
Rating · IRD
80
Speed map
Offmidfield
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -59% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 11% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 27%
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 1
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Not disgraced at Swan Hill. Goes into wider exotics.
ILB
Started $21.00 and inched into 5th last run at Swan Hill and has the ideal draw. Does take a while to get into stride. This field likely to be too good.
RP
Respectable effort in defeat (beaten 2½l, Swan Hill) last week; passed over as this is a fairly competitive event.
RSIS
Was 20/1 and moved ahead of some to finish 5th last time at Swan Hill and will appreciate a good stall. Likely to get back in the field.
Career
19: 2-4-2
Rating · IRD
82
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-1-0
Third-up
2: 1-1-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-1
Track Horsham
3: 2-1-0
Track CurrentTrack
4: 0-0-0
Track Ararat
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1800m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 2100m
2: 1-1-0
Distance 2200m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
14: 2-4-2
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
3: 0-0-0
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 26% in Last 100 Rides
Jockey Booking
Positive
Holly Durnan 23% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 5% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 17%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Needs To Imp
Negative
Finished towards the tail last start
Form At Track
Negative
Yet to win here
AAP
Failed to threaten at St Arnaud at double-figure odds. Unplaced from 4 starts here. Others with more appeal.
ILB
Odds of $31.00 and struggled with the pace when 6th last time at St Arnaud but up against weaker rivals. Has the necessary speed to overcome the wide draw. Lines up against a competitive field.
RP
Has not been firing consistently; finished sixth, beaten 7l, over 1m2f at St Arnaud (handicap) 13 days ago; this line-up contains some strong opposition so looks opposable.
RSIS
Started 30/1 and weakened to finish 6th last run at St Arnaud but up against a less challenging field. Has the early pace to burn across from the wide draw.
Career
19: 1-5-0
Rating · IRD
83
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Ballarat Synthetic
2: 0-1-0
Track Ballarat
1: 0-1-0
Track Geelong
2: 0-0-0
Distance 2070m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 2400m
3: 0-1-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
6: 1-1-0
Going Heavy
3: 0-0-0
Going Soft
8: 0-3-0
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 18% in Last 100 Rides
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 8%
Jockey Booking
Positive
Alana Kelly 21% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 21%
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Not disgraced at Swan Hill at $6.50. One for exotics.
ILB
Jumped at $6.50 and finished 8th last time at Swan Hill. Entitled to be big odds.
RP
Patchy form recently and has a record of 1-19; close up behind Hula Beat when eighth beaten 3½l last week at Swan Hill upped to this distance; this is competitive and others make more appeal.
RSIS
At 11/2 ran 8th last time at Swan Hill.
Career
64: 9-5-3
Rating · IRD
75
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
9: 1-0-0
Second-up
8: 0-0-0
Third-up
8: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
5: 1-0-1
Track Scone
1: 0-0-0
Track Canterbury
3: 0-0-0
Track Hamilton
4: 1-0-1
Distance 1600m
9: 0-0-0
Distance 1700m
4: 0-1-0
Distance 1875m
2: 2-0-0
Going Good
30: 3-2-2
Going Heavy
14: 3-2-0
Going Soft
20: 3-1-1
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 27% better than Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Positive
Kate Walters 21% above market expected in L100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 94%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 14% POT in L100 Runners
Needs To Imp
Negative
Finished towards the tail last start
Form At Track
Negative
Yet to win here
Primed
Positive
Fitter here racing on a quick back up
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
On a short back-up. Failed to flatter at Mortlake. Others with greater appeal.
ILB
Backing up quickly for this race. Disappointing run when 8th last run at Mortlake and challenged by more formidable competitors. Good to see Ms Kate Walters is jumping on.
RP
Useful at this level; beaten 8l in eighth over 1m2f at Mortlake (handicap) at the weekend.
RSIS
On a short turnaround. Average performance when 8th last start at Mortlake and testing ability against stronger contenders. Ms Kate Walters takes the reins today.
Rating · IRD
83
Speed map
Offpace
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Good staying gelding. Tougher here but merit in his last start.
ILB
At $8.00 made some ground when 4th last start at Hamilton but up in grade.
RP
Has maintained his consistent level of form; fourth, beaten less than a length, over 1m3f at Hamilton (handicap) 27 days ago.
RSIS
Started 7/1 and made some ground when 4th last time at Hamilton but taking on stronger opponents.
Career
34: 1-9-7
Rating · IRD
88
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
4: 0-0-1
Second-up
3: 0-1-0
Third-up
3: 0-1-1
Fourth-up
3: 0-1-0
Track Sale
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham Synthetic
5: 0-2-2
Track Ballarat Synthetic
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1530m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
6: 0-1-2
Distance 1760m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
23: 1-7-4
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
3: 0-0-1
Ready To Fire
Positive
Shown something in last few runs
AAP
Consistent gelding but lacks the class to get the job done. Well into preparation now, has some claims.
ILB
Ran on strongly when 2nd beaten by 2L last run at Wangaratta but competing in a higher grade. In top racing shape this preparation.
RP
Finishing second was a good effort last week at Wangaratta over 1m2f (handicap); has won over C&D.
RSIS
Flashed home late into 2nd beaten by 2L last start at Wangaratta but challenged by more formidable competitors. Has been a model of consistency since coming back from a break.
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Offpace
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 1%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -88% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 83%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 88% Profit on Turnover
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 8%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Had all before him at turn and went home tamely this track. Can't enthuse.
ILB
Racing on a quick back up. Ran 8th last start at this venue but drawn nicely. Struggling this campaign with no placings from 7 attempts but returns to more ground.
RP
Out of the frame (beaten 5l in eighth) over 1m½f here (handicap) a week ago; this is his level.
RSIS
On a quick back up. Finished 8th last run around here but will try to take advantage of the draw. Yet to fire recently but back to an increased distance.