Shortest win price
Zweigelt (5)
1.70
The opening leg at Coffs Harbour on AEDT kicks off at 1:50 pm into a Class 1 tussle over 2000m on a Soft 7 track under fine skies. The win market has Zweigelt and Swift Sovereign trading as the short-priced pair, with Chayse 'N' Penny and Crunch Time the next in line. This is the kind of race where form reads like a puzzle—a few of these runners are knocking on the door, and the Soft 7 going will suit different animals in different ways.
Zweigelt comes in as the favourite with the best IRD rating at 100 and form that screams readiness. The four-year-old was backed heavily at Lismore last start over 2120m on identical Soft 7 going and stuck on for second, just over half a length away. That's the kind of near-miss that tells you a runner belongs in this company. The form line reads solid: a win at maiden level before that narrow loss, and the tape shows he finishes hard. Swift Sovereign, trained by Christos Zintilis and ridden by Danny Peisley, won his maiden at Eagle Farm on Soft 7 turf over 1830m and looks to have the goods for this step up. Peisley is riding well above his career average of late, a handy subplot. Crunch Time, though rated 70, arrives fresh from a win at Toowoomba over 2180m in good ground; Ben Looker is a standout at odds here—the jockey has been running 23 per cent better than career average in his last 100 rides and sits 29 per cent above expected market returns. The yarn with him is that he finds form on quick back-ups and looks nicely priced for a fresh hand.
Chayse 'N' Penny carries some questions. The form line shows fading efforts—a battling fourth at Gold Coast over 1800m on Soft 7, then a sixth over the synthetic at Gold Coast Poly. The rise to 2235m is a step into new territory, and the AAP comment flags form down. Dundee Tales, a backmarker by trade, boasts the fastest finishing sectionals last time out and has a touch of class in the record—one win, three placings from 22 starts—but the trainer's stable is struggling at just 4 per cent strike rate. The form line suggests Zweigelt, Swift Sovereign, and the odds-against claim on Crunch Time offer the most promise for punters keen to find value at the first.
Shortest win price
Zweigelt (5)
1.70
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Midfield
Leader
Chayse 'N' Penny · Negative
Current SR
Rider’s recent POT is returning 22% lower than Career Avg.
Crunch Time · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 23% in Last 100 Rides
Dundee Tales · Positive
Fast Finisher
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Swift Sovereign · Positive
Fast Finisher
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Career
14: 1-1-2
Rating · IRD
72
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
4: 0-0-0
Second-up
3: 0-0-1
Third-up
3: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
3: 1-0-0
Track Beaudesert
2: 0-0-1
Track Gold Coast
4: 0-0-0
Track Ipswich
5: 1-0-1
Distance 1800m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
6: 0-0-2
Going Heavy
1: 0-1-0
Going Soft
6: 1-0-0
Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 22% lower than Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Hot Trainer
Positive
Jay Bellamy in good form, out performing market 40%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 33% POT in L100 Runners
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 26% in L100 rides
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Ready To Strike
Positive
Can be rewarded for recent consistent form
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Down on form. Battled home in choppy conditions at Gold Coast. Rise to 2235m a new challenge. Not fancied.
ILB
Jumped at $5.50 and advanced late into 4th last run at Gold Coast. Will be hitting the line strongly. Can run into the placings.
RP
May have to settle for supporting role.
RSIS
Started at 9/2 and edged past some when finishing 4th last run at Gold Coast. Has a nice turn of foot.
Career
7: 1-0-0
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Leader
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Ipswich
1: 0-0-0
Track Toowoomba
1: 1-0-0
Track Dalby
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2180m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 2200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
4: 1-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
2: 0-0-0
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 23% in Last 100 Rides
Jockey Booking
Positive
Ben Looker 29% above market expected in L100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 65%
Key Jockey
Positive
Ben Looker winning at 14% POT in last 100 rides
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Gap In Runs
Negative
Not raced for 32 days
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Fresh. Stationed mid and sustained a strong run at Toowoomba. Could give some cheek at odds.
ILB
Ran over the top of them when winning last time at Toowoomba. Shows good early pace. Could feature here.
RP
Gained a just over 2l success at Toowoomba in a maiden; can give it a good shot.
RSIS
Was eating up the ground late when winning last time at Toowoomba. Won't be far away during the run.
Career
22: 1-3-3
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
4: 0-0-1
Second-up
3: 0-0-1
Third-up
3: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
3: 0-0-1
Track Grafton
6: 1-1-0
Track Newcastle
1: 0-0-1
Track Lismore
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1700m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1720m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1725m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
10: 0-3-2
Going Good
10: 1-0-1
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 4%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are under performing market expectations by -30%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 42%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 49% Profit on Turnover
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
AAP
Long winless run but found enough to place in small field at Port Macquarie. Place again.
ILB
Ran well when 2nd last time at Port Macquarie and drawn well. Likely to settle back in the field. Marginal contender.
RP
Not beaten far when second at Port Macquarie in a conditions race; wins infrequently.
RSIS
Looked good when 2nd last run at Port Macquarie and has a nice advantage with a good stall. Likely to settle back in the field.
Career
3: 1-0-0
Rating · IRD
75
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Doomben
1: 0-0-0
Track Lismore
1: 0-0-0
Track Eagle Farm
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1830m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1210m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1660m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 1-0-0
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 16% better than Career Avg.
Tricky Map
Negative
Runners with this map, underperform market by 7%
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Brave display holding on at Eagle Farm last outing. Stamina on trial here. In the zone and hard to toss again.
ILB
Dictated the tempo when winning by a margin of a head last start at Eagle Farm and form has been improving over recent runs. Value runner.
RP
Narrow scorer in a maiden at Eagle Farm when opening his account at the third time of asking last month; respected.
RSIS
Showed a clean pair of heels when winning by a head last run at Eagle Farm and demonstrating upward trajectory in recent races. Definite claims for punters.
Career
7: 1-2-1
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
2: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Third-up
1: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Murwillumbah
1: 0-0-1
Track Grafton
2: 0-0-0
Track Lismore
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1430m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1800m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
5: 1-1-1
Going Soft
2: 0-1-0
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 11%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 26%
Tricky Map
Negative
Runners with this map, underperform market by 7%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Ready To Strike
Positive
Can be rewarded for recent consistent form
AAP
Stuck to his guns to fill the minors when supported at Lismore. Highly rated in this line-up.
ILB
Tidy run when 2nd last start at Lismore. Amongst the placegetters frequently this campaign. The one they all have to beat.
RP
Went down by half a length at Lismore in a conditions race; must go on the shortlist.
RSIS
Competitive effort when 2nd last start at Lismore. In a purple patch of form lately. Has the figures to win.
Career
12: 1-0-1
Rating · IRD
75
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 1-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
2: 0-0-0
Track Ballina
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1590m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1800m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
8: 1-0-0
Going Soft
4: 0-0-1
Trainer SR
Negative
Matthew Dunn striking at just 12%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -28% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 26%
Improver
Positive
Poised to improve on recent form here
AAP
Threw the towel in after leading in soft going at Port Macquarie. Stamina on trial here. Can't enthuse.
ILB
Odds of $5.00 and couldn't maintain the pace when 4th last time at Port Macquarie. Likely to get back in the field.
RP
Behind Dundee Tales at Port Macquarie in a conditions race; others have more pressing claims.
RSIS
Started 4/1 and couldn't stay in touch when 4th last run at Port Macquarie. Prefers to settle towards the rear.
Rating · IRD
20
Career
5: 0-1-1
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Quirindi
1: 0-0-0
Track Scone
1: 0-1-0
Track Gunnedah
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2100m
1: 0-0-1
Going Soft
2: 0-1-0
Going Good
3: 0-0-1
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Improved L/S
Positive
Improved again last start
AAP
Winner too strong but ran on for the minors at Scone. Can't totally discount on latest efforts.
ILB
Did well to run into 2nd last start at Scone and demonstrating upward trajectory in recent races.
RP
Has shown some recent improvement and has run well in defeat a number of times; not disgraced when runner-up at 28-1 over 1m3f at Scone (conditions race) last month; this line-up contains some strong opposition so may have to settle for supporting role at best.
RSIS
Nice effort to run into 2nd beaten by nearly 5L last start at Scone and form has been improving over recent runs.