Shortest win price
Kingdom Undersiege (2)
4.20
The Jacaranda Cup at Coffs Harbour on Saturday arvo is a Benchmark 82 sprint over 1200 metres on a SOFT5 track, and the win market has thrown up an intriguing puzzle. Rich Star is shortest in the betting, with Kingdom Undersiege and Lady Wardell next in line, followed by Grey Effects and Via Vegas. The early tempo will be set by a cluster of leaders — Via Vegas, Rich Star, and Dizzy Dee all drawn to hunt the front — while Lady Wardell and Kingdom Undersiege sit onpace from the inside, giving the race a brisk setup.
Rich Star, the favourite, has form reading well for this after a 43-day break: a brave second at Coffs Harbour over 1010 metres last time and a third at Taree over 1008 metres on a SOFT6 in a Country Class 3, where the AAP notes he was sent forward and stuck to the task. Second-up is a track where he holds a win from three starts. However, his J/T combo is stone cold, and the trainer strikes at just 6% — that's a heavy headwind. Lady Wardell, second in the market, is the hot J/T duo for Stephen & Jordan Lee, winning 26% from their last 100 races. Fresh off a win at Lismore over 1110 metres, also SOFT5, she got back and came with a full head of steam. The comment flags her as one to watch, and first-up she boasts a record of one win from six attempts. Kingdom Undersiege, third favouritism, had a great run at Lismore 25 September when second at the Open level, though he laboured home eighth at Eagle Farm. The move down to 1200 metres suits his profile, and stepping up second-up has yielded a strike rate of one from three.
Grey Effects looms as a serious roughie from barrier 7. Zac Wadick's recent form is 24% below his career average — a jockey stat to watch — but this mare has the goods: she closed with the fastest overall finishing sectionals last start at Port Macquarie, where she ran second over 1200 metres on GOOD4. She ticks both the track and distance win box and has had a solid prep. The speedMap shows three leaders vying early (Via Vegas, Rich Star, Dizzy Dee), which could open a lane for a backmarker like Grey Effects to hit the line hard. Lady Wardell for the top run, Rich Star for the short odds, but Grey Effects is worth serious thought in the placings and beyond.
Shortest win price
Kingdom Undersiege (2)
4.20
Most career wins
Dune And Dusted
8-5-2 from 42 starts
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Offmidfield
Offpace
Onpace
Leader
Lady Wardell · Positive
Hot J/T Combo
Combo are winning 26% POT in their L100 Races
Kingdom Undersiege · Negative
Trainer Recent
Camp struggling with S/R just 12%
Grey Effects · Positive
Fast Finisher
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Via Vegas · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 23% in Last 100 Rides
Career
41: 7-9-10
Rating · IRD
95
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
6: 1-2-1
Second-up
5: 0-2-0
Third-up
5: 1-0-1
Fourth-up
5: 2-0-1
Track Doomben
4: 0-0-1
Track Ipswich
5: 2-0-1
Track Murwillumbah
3: 1-0-1
Distance 1200m
13: 1-1-6
Distance 1260m
2: 0-2-0
Distance 946m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
24: 4-5-5
Going Heavy
3: 0-1-1
Going Soft
14: 3-3-4
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are winning 26% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 10% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 12%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Form At Track
Positive
1 time winner here at Coffs Harbour
AAP
Fresh. Got back and hit line with a full head of steam at Lismore. Warrants attention.
ILB
Missed by a narrow margin last time at Lismore and lining up against easier rivals. Has good tactical speed and will be nicely positioned. Drawn the rails. Very capable of taking this out.
RP
Normally pretty consistent; has won previously at this course; not far behind Kingdom Undersiege when third at Lismore six weeks ago; a lot on her plate here and not easy to fancy.
RSIS
Missed by a narrow margin last start at Lismore and matched against a less competitive field. Has plenty of early pace. The large claim from Siabh Rigley should help. Good enough chance at a very tempting price.
Career
14: 4-1-0
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
5: 2-0-0
Second-up
3: 1-0-0
Third-up
2: 1-1-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Ipswich
1: 0-0-0
Track Murwillumbah
1: 1-0-0
Track Lismore
2: 1-1-0
Distance 1200m
4: 1-0-0
Distance 1210m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1220m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
6: 3-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
7: 1-1-0
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 12%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 26%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Up In Weight
Negative
Goes up 4kg weight here
AAP
Great run at Lismore 25 Sep. Off pace, only battled home at Eagle Farm. Switching to 1120m. Could get into the placings.
ILB
At $10.00 looked outclassed when 8th last run at Eagle Farm. Capable of bouncing back but bit of extra work to do with more weight. Andrew Mallyon rates highly aboard. Good tough competitor that can be supported.
RP
Finished last of eight over 7f at Eagle Farm (handicap) 25 days ago; proven that he knows how to get his head in front (seeking a fifth career win); strong contender despite defeat last time as ran well at Lismore three runs back.
RSIS
Started 9/1 and looked outclassed when 8th last run at Eagle Farm. Can make a comeback but carrying more weight than last time. Andrew Mallyon rates highly aboard. Good tough competitor that can be supported.
Career
25: 5-6-4
Rating · IRD
82
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
5: 1-1-0
Second-up
4: 1-0-1
Third-up
3: 2-0-0
Fourth-up
3: 0-0-1
Track Tuncurry
1: 0-0-1
Track Ballina
1: 0-1-0
Track Doomben
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
4: 0-2-1
Distance 1350m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
14: 1-6-2
Going Soft
11: 4-0-2
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Jockey Booking
Negative
Zac Wadick current POT is 24% below Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 111%
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 34% in L100 rides
Tricky Map
Negative
Runners with this map, underperform market by 7%
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
AAP
Having a good preparation. Out the back, closed with raking strides in the Qlty Hcp at Port Macquarie. Ticks the track and distance win box. Not out of this.
ILB
Finished amongst the placegetters when 2nd beaten by 3/4L last run at Port Macquarie and going down in class. Very competitive this campaign but has more weight to carry. Place claims at best.
RP
In decent heart at present; unfancied when going close (Port Macquarie) four weeks ago; not hard to turn elsewhere as regularly been coming up a bit short lately.
RSIS
Improved to place when 2nd last start at Port Macquarie and up against a less competitive field. In strong racing shape recently but will have to carry more weight.
Career
25: 6-5-2
Rating · IRD
78
Speed map
Leader
First-up
5: 1-1-1
Second-up
4: 2-0-0
Third-up
3: 1-1-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Mornington
1: 0-1-0
Track Taree
1: 0-0-1
Track Albury
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1004m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1100m
2: 1-1-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
15: 3-2-2
Going Heavy
2: 1-1-0
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 23% in Last 100 Rides
Key Rider
Positive
Ben Looker 29% above market expected in L100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 191%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 38% POT in L100 Runners
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Up In Weight
Negative
Goes up 4kg weight here
AAP
Port Macquarie winner two back. On pace but unable to sustain bid at Port Macquarie second-up. Can go forward. Among the dangers.
ILB
Started $16.00 and couldn't stay in touch when 9th last run at Port Macquarie but drops back to a suitable grade. Should race on the speed. Up in weight. Rough chance today.
RP
Ninth of 12 at Port Macquarie 26 days ago; career wins-runs record of 6-25; excuses last time (crowded) and should be on the premises.
RSIS
Started 15/1 and didn't find the line when 9th last run at Port Macquarie but taking on easier opposition. Shows good early pace. Up in weight.
Career
22: 4-4-2
Rating · IRD
81
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
6: 1-1-0
Second-up
5: 0-2-0
Third-up
2: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-1
Track Randwick
1: 0-0-0
Track Coffs Harbour
2: 0-1-0
Track CurrentTrack
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1110m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1175m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
8: 1-3-1
Going Good
14: 3-2-1
Going Heavy
1: 1-0-0
Going Soft
7: 0-2-1
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 16% better than Career Avg.
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 87%
Increased Dist
Positive
Distance rise from last start
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Winkers Off
Positive
Winkers coming off this start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Resuming (40-weeks). Had a quiet trial but form strong at home. Can play a role fresh in this line-up.
ILB
Racing fresh today after a 40 week break. Jumped at $9.00 and lacklustre showing when 5th last start at Eagle Farm. Not without a chance.
RP
Unlikely to achieve more than just a supporting role.
RSIS
First run back after a break of 40 weeks. Started 8/1 and mediocre display when 5th last time at Eagle Farm.
Career
28: 5-4-5
Rating · IRD
87
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
4: 0-1-3
Second-up
3: 1-0-0
Third-up
3: 1-0-1
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-0
Track Tatura
1: 1-0-0
Track Hawkesbury
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
5: 3-0-1
Distance 1007m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1110m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
14: 3-2-4
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
13: 2-2-1
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 31% better than Career Avg.
Key Rider
Positive
Luke Rolls 48% above market expected in L100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 62%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 15% POT in L100 Runners
Key Jockey
Positive
Luke Rolls winning at 19% POT in last 100 rides
Consecutive Wins
Positive
Has strung together a few races in a row
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Chasing hat-trick. Responded strongly to score in small field at Taree. Gets through rain affected ground. Right in the mix again.
ILB
Romped home to win last run at Taree. Can't knock the form winning 2 in a row. Betting is the best guide.
RP
Successful on her last starts; won by 2l at Taree in a handicap.
RSIS
Picked up late to win last time at Taree. On a winning streak the last 2 attempts. Could feature here.
Career
11: 3-5-2
Rating · IRD
94
Speed map
Leader
First-up
3: 0-3-0
Second-up
2: 1-1-0
Third-up
2: 1-0-1
Track Taree
2: 0-1-1
Track Grafton
8: 3-3-1
Track Coffs Harbour
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1007m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1008m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1050m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
6: 3-2-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-1-0
Going Soft
4: 0-2-1
Trainer SR
Negative
Chris Manson striking at just 6%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 31%
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Fresh
Positive
Freshened up. Had a break of 42-60 days
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Racing Solidly
Positive
In peak form
AAP
Let-up (43-days). Form reads well for this. Sent forward and stuck to the task bravely on a soft deck in the Country Boosted Hcp (C3) at Taree. Looks a serious player.
ILB
Freshened for this. Applied plenty of pressure when 3rd last run at Taree but facing formidable rivals. Will be positive in the run early. Rates as one of the key chances.
RP
Successful three times from career runs; beaten only narrowly (Taree) in a handicap.
RSIS
Freshened for this. Was outmatched at the end of the race when 3rd beaten by 3/4L last run at Taree but up against a more competitive field. Goes well and could be a value opportunity.
Career
25: 6-1-2
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Leader
First-up
4: 1-0-0
Second-up
3: 0-1-0
Third-up
3: 0-0-2
Fourth-up
3: 2-0-0
Track Port Macquarie
1: 0-0-0
Track Gold Coast
1: 0-0-0
Track Taree
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1005m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1190m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1250m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
13: 4-1-0
Going Heavy
4: 2-0-0
Going Soft
8: 0-0-2
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 39% better than Career Avg.
Key Rider
Positive
Jett Newman 31% above market expected in L100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 133%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 29% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 12%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Weight Drop
Positive
Drops 6.5kg from LS run
AAP
On pace but soon under pressure and she knocked up badly this track. Can go forward but does need to lift.
ILB
Jumped at $15.00 and folded up in the straight when 8th last run at Grafton on a heavy track and taking on stronger rivals. Should muster plenty of early toe. Simply cannot have.
RP
Finished eighth, beaten 7l, (Grafton) 22 days ago; possesses winning form at this track; this is her level; brings winning form to the table and she's an attractive contender.
RSIS
Started at 14/1 and weakened under pressure when 8th last run at Grafton and up against stronger competition. Should muster plenty of early toe. Dropping weight.
Career
42: 8-5-2
Rating · IRD
73
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
4: 1-0-0
Second-up
3: 0-1-0
Third-up
3: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-1-0
Track Beaudesert
1: 0-1-0
Track CurrentTrack
2: 0-0-0
Track Walcha
3: 2-1-0
Distance 1200m
12: 2-2-0
Distance 1215m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 950m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
29: 6-5-2
Going Heavy
2: 1-0-0
Going Soft
11: 1-0-0
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 5%
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 34%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 42% Profit on Turnover
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 14%
Gap In Runs
Negative
Not raced for 36 days
Blinkers Off
Positive
Blinkers coming off this start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Now 5 weeks between runs. Just missed at Armidale 20 Sep. Big weight took its toll this venue. Leaning towards others here.
ILB
Started at $21.00 and peaked on the run when 4th last start at Grafton but matched against tougher rivals. Interesting to see the blinkers go off for the first time. Hard to warm to at present.
RP
Fourth behind Humphree Bear over 5½f at Grafton (handicap) five weeks ago; been struggling to get his head in front recently so others more appealing.
RSIS
At 20/1 faded away late when 4th last time at Grafton but up in class. Interesting to see the blinkers go off for the first time.
Career
25: 5-4-3
Rating · IRD
74
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
4: 2-1-1
Second-up
3: 1-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-1
Track Casino
1: 0-0-0
Track Port Macquarie
1: 0-0-1
Track Ballina
3: 1-1-0
Distance 1000m
11: 1-3-1
Distance 1010m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1106m
3: 1-1-1
Going Good
7: 1-1-0
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-1
Going Soft
16: 4-3-2
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 352%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 8% POT in L100 Runners
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 27% in L100 rides
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Well beaten LS
Negative
Not competitive last run
Form At Track
Negative
Yet to win here
1st Up S/R
Positive
Has won 2 from 4 when resuming
AAP
Let-up (62-days). Failed to threaten at Coffs Harbour. Trained on track but has an adverse draw for return. Can't enthuse.
ILB
First up and overrun late when 2nd beaten by 3 1/2L first up last preparation at Taree. Jockey Dylan Turner and trainer Samantha Mcguren are usually competitive together.
RP
Held in seventh two months ago; this is her grade; could be in the mix as she knows how to get the job done - goes well fresh.
RSIS
Resuming and big effort to place 2nd beaten by 3 1/2L resuming last preparation at Taree. Dylan Turner and Samantha Mcguren form a proven partnership.
Career
30: 4-4-4
Rating · IRD
71
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
4: 0-0-0
Second-up
3: 0-0-0
Third-up
3: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
3: 1-0-1
Track CurrentTrack
4: 0-0-0
Track Casino
2: 0-2-0
Track Ballina
2: 0-0-2
Distance 1125m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1205m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1410m
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
8: 4-1-0
Going Good
13: 0-1-2
Going Heavy
9: 0-2-2
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 24% better than Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Positive
Noriyuki Masuda 24% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Stable In Form
Positive
Stable going well. Out performing market by 81%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 70% POT in L100 Runners
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Back in Dist
Negative
Dropping back to a less suitable distance range
Form At Track
Negative
Yet to win here
AAP
First-up (16-weeks). Not a known fresh performer and best over a touch further. Strikes a competitive race.
ILB
Resumes after a spell. Hit the line well when 3rd last run at Grafton and up against a less challenging field. Coming back in trip. Seems unlikely.
RP
Has maintained his consistent level of form; not disgraced when third at 20-1 in a conditions race at Grafton in July; record fresh suggests he might need this run; only limited appeal.
RSIS
Resuming after a break. Claimed a spot in the top three when 3rd beaten by 2 3/4L last start at Grafton and dropping in class. Coming back in trip.
Career
20: 4-2-2
Rating · IRD
74
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
4: 1-0-0
Second-up
3: 0-1-1
Third-up
3: 1-0-1
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Murwillumbah
1: 0-1-0
Track Sunshine Coast
5: 2-0-0
Track Grafton
7: 2-1-1
Distance 1012m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1106m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1110m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
12: 3-1-2
Going Good
7: 1-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-1-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 29% POT in L100 Runners
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 2
Primed
Positive
Fitter here racing on a quick back up
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
On a quick back-up. Sent out $41 when never got into the race at Gold Coast. Fit from racing, could get into the placings.
ILB
On a short back up. Jumped at $41.00 and struggled when 8th last start at Gold Coast but drawn nicely. Significant improvement required.
RP
Others are preferred.
RSIS
On a quick turnaround. Odds of 40/1 and not competitive when 8th last start at Gold Coast but gets a favourable stall.