Geelong (VIC) horses tips & previews

8 Nov, 1:04 am AEDT

One race at a time: field, form guide and win/place odds for Geelong (VIC), with capture times on every price.

Meeting — Sat 7 Nov, 11:00 am AEDT

Meetings · Sat, 7 NovGeelong (VIC)Change

Race 1 — Black Mount Springwater Mdn Plate 1118m · jumps Sat 7 Nov, 12:56 pm AEDT

Race preview

Welcome to Geelong for the Black Mount Springwater Mdn Plate over 1118m on a Soft 6 track with showers about, where the punters are getting stuck into the form early. Looking at how the win market is shaping up, Mystic River Queen holds down the shortest spot at the top of the board, closely followed by Alpine Point, Exacting Standard, and Brookelinda rounding out the early fancies in this three-year-old maiden clash.

The yarn behind the market leaders makes for interesting reading on a damp afternoon. Mystic River Queen comes in off a bold debut effort when just shaded by the winner at Mornington over 1000m, and with Dylan Dunn steering and riding in great touch, she should take plenty of beating here. Alpine Point returns for a second campaign for the Hayes stable, bringing a fresh run where the stable is firing at a handy clip, while Exacting Standard showed enough to place in a small field at Yarra Glen off a spell and should strip fitter second-up for Zac Spain and the Shane Nichols and Hayden Black yard.

Down the line, the speed map shows Mystic River Queen looking to take up the running from barrier six, while Exacting Standard and Truant are meant to be pushing up on the pace from their respective gates. Brookelinda is another worth keeping an eye on for the A & S Freedman stable, having tackled a harder 2YO handicap on debut at Sandown and enjoying a hot jockey and trainer combination that tends to outperform market expectations. It is shaping up as a proper punting puzzle on the quick back-up.

Race notes

3Y MDN-SW,3yo,Maiden
SOFT6
Showers
8 runners

Shortest win price

Mystic River Queen (10)

1.80

Speed map

Back left · leaders right

Backmarker

1Alpine Point
9Brookelinda

Midfield

3Hollywood Hustler
5Quarters

Offpace

8Truant

Onpace

2Exacting Standard

Firststart

11Rubicube

Leader

10Mystic River Queen

Alpine Point · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 22% in Last 100 Rides
Exacting Standard · Negative
Jockey Booking
Less suitable jockey engaged
Hollywood Hustler · Negative
Jockey Booking
Jason Maskiell current POT is 36% below Career Avg.
Quarters · Negative
Trainer SR
M & L Kavanagh striking at just 2%

No.RunnerBarWgtLast 5WinPlace

1Alpine PointJ: Brad Rawiller·T: Ben, Will & Jd Hayes258kg4 5 83: 0-0-0$6.00$1.65

Career

3: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

100

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
Early Speed20%
Rating100%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Track Mornington
1: 0-0-0
Track Sale
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1205m
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

8Pakenham Synthetic1100m20 July 2026 · 2yo+ · SYNTHETIC6.4L
5Sale1205m28 June 2026 · 2Y MDN-SW · HEAVY81.4L
4Mornington1200m8 June 2026 · 2Y HCP · SOFT73.3L

Insights

Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 22% in Last 100 Rides
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 26% POT in L100 Runners
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 2
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Winkers Off
Positive
Winkers coming off this start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Returns for second campaign (15-weeks). Jumped out well over recent weeks. Not out of it fresh in this affair.

ILB

Resuming after a break. At $10.00 sub-standard effort when 8th last time at Pakenham Synthetic. Should improve and can find a nice position from the draw. Will go close here.

Yet to finish better than fourth in his three races; beaten 6l in eighth at Pakenham in July; passed over.

RSIS

Fresh after a break. Was 9/1 and not up to scratch when 8th last run at Pakenham Synthetic. Overlooking the last run and has a good draw. Strong chance to be considered.

2Exacting StandardJ: Zac Spain·T: Shane Nichols & Hayden Black358kg2 5 23: 0-2-0$6.00$1.65

Career

3: 0-2-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed20%
Rating60%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
2: 0-2-0
Track Pakenham
1: 0-0-0
Track Bendigo
1: 0-1-0
Track Yarra Valley
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1009m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-1-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-1-0

Last starts

2Yarra Valley1009m24 Oct 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · SOFT51L
5Pakenham1100m29 May 2026 · 2Y MDN-SW · HEAVY85L
2Bendigo1000m13 May 2026 · 2Y MDN-SW · GOOD40.5L

Insights

Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -38% POT in their L100 Races
Map Suits
Positive
Suitable Map, where runners in this position outperform market by 4%
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Lightly Raced
Positive
Limited race experience but shown potential
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Form from three runs has been respectable. Found enough to place in small field at Yarra Glen off spell. Will be fitter second-up. Worth a look.

ILB

Finished with intent when 2nd last run at Yarra Valley and promising career start. Forward showing expected.

A respectable runner-up of seven at Yarra Glen over 5f (maiden) last month.

RSIS

Showed a good turn of foot when 2nd beaten by 1L last time at Yarra Vstall and solid career start. Definitely worth considering.

3Hollywood HustlerJ: Jason Maskiell·T: Jason Warren758kg4 2 3 5 81: 0-0-0$34.00$3.90

Career

1: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo40%
Early Speed20%
Rating20%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Horsham
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

8Horsham1100m18 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD38.99L
5Caulfield Heath1000m1 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)1.6L
3Seymour1000m11 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)1L
2Bendigo800m18 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · HEAVY(8)0.5L
4Tatura850m24 Nov 2025 · Barrier Trial7L

Insights

Jockey Booking
Negative
Jason Maskiell current POT is 36% below Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -22% POT in their L100 Races
Hot Trainer
Positive
Jason Warren in good form, out performing market 76%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 57% POT in L100 Runners
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 53% in L100 rides
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Awkward Draw
Negative
May find this draw awkward

Comments

AAP

Failed to stamp himself on the race at Horsham debut at double-figure odds 18 Oct. Has a tricky draw. Has a fair bit to find.

ILB

Started $21.00 and folded up in the straight when 8th last run at Horsham but fitter for debut run. Hard to entertain.

Held on his debut at Horsham with blinkers fitted at 20-1 20 days ago; one to take seriously as entitled to be a bit more streetwise this time and his pedigree offers room to progress.

RSIS

Started at 20/1 and didn't attack the line when 8th last start at Horsham but having second career run.

4OptimusScratched8––––

Career

3: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating60%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Sandown
2: 0-0-0
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0

Last starts

6Cranbourne1200m9 Oct 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · GOOD34.4L
8Sandown1400m25 Mar 2026 · 2Y HCP · SOFT59.3L
4Sandown1300m25 Feb 2026 · 2Y HCP · SOFT53L

Insights

Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 23% better than Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Positive
Dean Yendall 24% above market expected in L100 Rides
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 26% POT in L100 Runners
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Freshened after returning. Didn't finish it off over 1200m 3yo Mdn Plate at Cranbourne. Jump-out winner since. Capable of making an impact.

ILB

Weakened to finish 6th last run at Cranbourne.

Finished sixth but wasn't beaten too far (4½l) at Cranbourne over 6f (maiden) 29 days ago on debut for this trainer; yet to get off the mark in three attempts (fourth his best finish); hard enough to fancy.

RSIS

Weakened under pressure when 6th last start at Cranbourne.

5QuartersJ: Joe Bowditch·T: Mark & Levi Kavanagh158kg8 10 53: 0-0-0$34.00$3.90

Career

3: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer20%
Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
Early Speed100%
Rating40%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
3: 0-0-0
Track Yarra Valley
1: 0-0-0
Track Caulfield Heath
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1009m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0

Last starts

5Yarra Valley1009m24 Oct 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · SOFT54.35L
10Caulfield Heath1000m29 Apr 2026 · 2Y HCP · GOOD46.7L
8Caulfield Heath1100m20 Dec 2025 · 2yo · GOOD412.7L

Insights

Trainer SR
Negative
M & L Kavanagh striking at just 2%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 67%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 71% Profit on Turnover
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Unable to make an impression at Yarra Glen off extended spell. Need to see more from him now.

ILB

Jumped at $21.00 and hit the line well when 5th last time at Yarra Valley and has a nice advantage with a good draw. Will be tested.

Not disgraced when fifth of seven over 5f at Yarra Glen (maiden, close behind Exacting Standard) last month; makes limited appeal.

RSIS

Started 20/1 and made some ground when 5th last time at Yarra Vstall and drawn the rails.

6RivetingScratched4––––

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer40%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed50%
Rating50%
Closing Speed50%

Insights

Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 16% in Last 100 Rides
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 9%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 31%
First Starter
Positive
Not raced previously

Comments

AAP

$80k purchase. Introducing a gelding out of the Counterattack mare Lamplady. Won past 2 jump-outs. Benefit of decent alley. Big watch on debut.

ILB

Initial appearance 3yo by Captivant for trainer Danny O'brien. Betting is the best guide.

RSIS

Captivant 3yo trained by Danny O'brien having first start.

7SuperwillScratched2––––

Career

2: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating60%
Closing Speed60%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Flemington
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

7Flemington1200m4 July 2026 · 2Y FINAL · SOFT78.3L
7Flemington1000m28 Feb 2026 · 2yo · GOOD48.5L

Insights

Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 35% in Last 100 Rides
Jockey Booking
Positive
Lachlan King 38% above market expected in L100 Rides
Needs To Imp
Negative
Finished towards the tail last start
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Resuming (18-weeks). 4th & 2nd at latest Flemington jump-outs. Drawn for a soft run. Can challenge fresh in this affair.

ILB

First up after a break. Odds of $19.00 and fairly underwhelming when 7th last time at Flemington but competing in a less challenging grade. Drawn nicely.

Last of seven (Flemington) four months ago in a handicap; returns from a layoff.

RSIS

Back from break. Started 18/1 and subpar when 7th last time at Flemington but facing a weaker grade. Has a positive stall.

8TruantJ: Jackson Radley·T: Ben, Will & Jd Hayes558kg4 8 2 53: 0-1-0$13.00$2.65

Career

3: 0-1-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating60%
Closing Speed60%

Record

First-up
2: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Echuca
1: 0-0-0
Track Caulfield
1: 0-0-0
Track Moe
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1000m
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-1-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

5Echuca1000m19 Oct 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · GOOD44.06L
2Moe1000m24 Sept 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · GOOD43.75L
8Caulfield1100m9 May 2026 · 2Y HCP · SOFT710.7L
4Caulfield Heath850m23 Apr 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)2.5L

Insights

Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 26% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 10%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Unable to threaten in the small field at Echuca. Worth a look here.

ILB

Odds of $3.90 and uncompetitive when 5th last time at Echuca. Can win.

Not beaten that far at Echuca over 5f (maiden) 19 days ago; three-race maiden but has managed to finish second; probably unlikely to trouble the principals.

RSIS

At 3/1 mediocre attempt when 5th last run at Echuca. Expecting a strong showing.

9BrookelindaJ: Teodore Nugent·T: A & S Freedman456kg81: 0-0-0$6.50$1.75

Career

1: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed20%
Rating60%
Closing Speed60%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Sandown
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

8Sandown1000m11 Mar 2026 · 2Y HCP · GOOD45.5L

Insights

Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 58%
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Raceday Experience
Positive
Wiser for debut run
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Second campaign (34-weeks). Offered little to catch the eye on debut at Sandown-Hillside 11 Mar. Had a couple of jump-outs coming into this. Has plenty of scope to progress.

ILB

Resuming after a 34 week break. Jumped at $7.00 and came in 8th last time at Sandown but was a debutant last start. Taking on a lower class of opponents. Has some claims.

Was eighth of 12 on her debut at Sandown at 6-1 in March; has had some time off; could improve although needs to.

RSIS

Resumes from a break of 34 weeks. Was 6/1 and ran 8th last start at Sandown but was on debut last time. Competing at a lower level of competition. Not at all out of this race.

10Mystic River QueenJ: Dylan Dunn·T: M M Laurie656kg21: 0-1-0$1.80$1.06

Career

1: 0-1-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating100%
Closing Speed60%

Record

First-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Mornington
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
1: 0-1-0

Last starts

2Mornington1000m22 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD30.25L

Insights

Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 53% better than Career Avg.
Key Rider
Positive
Dylan Dunn 68% above market expected in L100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 77%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 18% POT in L100 Runners
Hot Jockey
Positive
Dylan Dunn in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 68%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Raceday Experience
Positive
Wiser for debut run
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Bold debut effort when just shaded by winner at Mornington 22 Oct at $4.40. Better for experience. Highly fancied to go one better.

ILB

Was agonizingly close last run at Mornington and was on debut last time. Dylan Dunn and Matt Laurie are an imposing duo. Will be positive in the run early. Should go close.

Beaten narrowly first time out at Mornington at 100-30 16 days ago; if stepping up from first effort can make a bold bid.

RSIS

Close to a win last run at Mornington and fitter for debut run. Jockey Dylan Dunn and trainer Matt Laurie must be respected together. Should come to hand quickly. Very capable of taking this out.

11RubicubeJ: Jack Hill·T: G Eurell856kg–$21.00$3.50

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed50%
Rating40%
Closing Speed50%

Insights

Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 24% better than Career Avg.
Watch Betting
Negative
If supported, follow in

Comments

AAP

$20k purchase. Out of a half-sister to G1 winner Regimental Gal. 7th & 4th at latest jump-outs. Wide barrier tests and one to watch at this stage.

ILB

3yo by Rubick having first race appearance for Greg Eurell. Follow the money.

Sole debutant in the line up; stable capable of preparing a newcomer to win; a big player with signs of encouragement in profile.

RSIS

3yo debutant sired by Rubick for trainer Greg Eurell.

Odds correct as at Sat 7 Nov, 1:00 pm AEDT. Odds can change.

Past meetings

Wed 21 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 9 races
Wed 7 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 8 races
Wed 23 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 8 races
Fri 11 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 9 races