Geelong (VIC) horses tips & previews

8 Nov, 1:03 am AEDT

One race at a time: field, form guide and win/place odds for Geelong (VIC), with capture times on every price.

Meeting — Sat 7 Nov, 11:00 am AEDT

Meetings · Sat, 7 NovGeelong (VIC)Change

Race 5 — Avis Ballarat & Western Victoria (Bm56) 1720m · jumps Sat 7 Nov, 3:26 pm AEDT

Race preview

Welcome to Geelong for this afternoon meeting where the track is rated a soft 6 under some light showers, setting up an intriguing test over the 1720m journey in this benchmark 56 handicap. Punters looking at the early win market have gravitated towards So Long Ago heading the lists, closely followed by Epeiric, Spirit Angel, and Caledonian Summer rounding out the sharper end of betting as they prepare for a battle in the Victorian dampness.

Digging into the form behind those shorter prices gives us plenty of yarn to work with. So Long Ago comes out of a run here over 1700m where things didn't entirely go to plan, though minor money might beckon on past efforts. Meanwhile, Epeiric showed positive signs with a late rally from the back at Sale over 1600m when second-up and should strip fitter now getting out to this trip. Spirit Angel brings sound level form to the table, coming off a solid second at Bairnsdale over 1600m after putting in a long run from the back, and both prior efforts at this track stack up nicely for a challenge. Caledonian Summer also warrants respect after fighting on dauntlessly to score at Echuca last time out, with Brad Rawiller sticking in the saddle and the extra distance looking like a positive step forward.

Race notes

3yo+,BM56,BM56 HCP,Benchmark 56
SOFT6
Showers
12 runners

Shortest win price

So Long Ago (7)

3.50

Most career wins

Gymkhana

3-1-4 from 27 starts

Speed map

Back left · leaders right

Backmarker

14Pro Velocity

Offmidfield

8Devine Grunt

Midfield

11I'Mfallinforyou
3Gymkhana

Offpace

12Spirit Angel
13Cuban Dawn
16A Blue Star
9Epeiric

Onpace

7So Long Ago
10Sakakibara
1Caledonian Summer

Leader

6Ballistic Romeo

Caledonian Summer · Positive
Rider SR
Jockey recent POT is 22% better than Career Avg.
Gymkhana · Positive
Hot J/T Combo
Combo are out performing market expectations by 143%
Ballistic Romeo · Negative
Current SR
Rider’s recent POT is returning 25% lower than Career Avg.
So Long Ago · Positive
Rider SR
Jockey recent POT is 53% better than Career Avg.

No.RunnerBarWgtLast 5WinPlace

1Caledonian SummerJ: Brad Rawiller·T: Jamie Edwards562kg8 10 5 14: 1-0-0$9.00$2.75

Career

4: 1-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed20%
Rating40%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Echuca
1: 1-0-0
Track Kilmore
1: 0-0-0
Track Warrnambool
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1406m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 1-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0

Last starts

1Echuca1400m19 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD4-0.06
5Warrnambool1200m21 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD43.9L
10Kilmore1607m31 Mar 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · SOFT615.4L
8Terang1406m17 Mar 2026 · MDN-SW · SOFT68.7L

Insights

Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 22% better than Career Avg.
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 68%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 10%
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

In touch and fought on dauntlessly at Echuca when second-up. B Rawiller on again. More ground a plus. Positive last start and may take another step.

ILB

Bold effort when winning last time at Echuca. Has early speed and positions nicely. Watch the betting.

Sprang a shock when scoring at 18-1 19 days ago at Echuca in a maiden; holds major claims.

RSIS

Displayed a good turn of foot when winning last time at Echuca. Won't be far away during the run. Watch for a sign in the market.

2Mike's HopeScratched14––––

Career

8: 1-1-3

Rating · IRD

100

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed20%
Rating100%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
2: 1-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Mildura
1: 1-0-0
Track Pakenham Synthetic
1: 0-0-1
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1400m
3: 1-0-1
Distance 1600m
4: 0-1-1
Distance 1887m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
5: 1-1-2
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-1

Last starts

3Kyneton1887m20 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD30.21L
2Swan Hill1600m22 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD30.75L
9Bendigo1600m6 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT56.3L
3Pakenham Synthetic1600m16 Aug 2026 · 3UP BM62 HCP · SYNTHETIC0.5L
6Sandown1400m2 Aug 2026 · BM66 · SOFT75.2L
1Mildura1400m17 July 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · GOOD4-0.8
4Sandown1600m4 Feb 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD42.5L
3Cranbourne1400m10 Jan 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD43.7L

Insights

Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 26% POT in L100 Runners
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Worked on the speed and just missed in the 3yo+ (Bm62) at Kyneton. Commands attention despite the big load.

ILB

Close to a win last time at Kyneton and competing in an easier class. Looking sharp on the track since coming back from a break.

Consistent lately; missed out by a head over 1m1½f at Kyneton (handicap) two weeks ago.

RSIS

Narrowly denied a win last time at Kyneton and competing in a lower grade. Showing great form of late.

3GymkhanaJ: Adam Mc Cabe·T: Angus Townley961.5kg1 4 4 7 627: 3-1-4$11.00$3.20

Career

27: 3-1-4

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed80%
Rating40%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
7: 1-0-2
Second-up
6: 0-0-1
Third-up
6: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
3: 0-1-0
Track Flemington
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
3: 1-0-2
Track Geelong
3: 1-0-2
Distance 1209m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1412m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1500m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
15: 2-0-1
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
7: 1-1-3

Last starts

6Kilmore1600m28 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD35L
7Mornington1500m17 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD44.63L
4Ballarat Synthetic1400m31 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · SYNTHETIC1.3L
4Pakenham1600m26 Mar 2026 · 0 - 62 · HEAVY98.5L
1Geelong1715m14 Mar 2026 · 0 - 56 · GOOD4-0.4
9Pakenham2000m19 Feb 2026 · 0 - 62 · GOOD44.5L
4Yarra Valley1950m7 Feb 2026 · BM56 · GOOD43.2L
9Cranbourne1600m22 Jan 2026 · 0 - 62 · GOOD33.4L

Insights

Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 143%
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Gap In Runs
Negative
Not raced for 40 days

Comments

AAP

Freshened. Trimmed margin late at Kilmore. Smoky place prospect at best.

ILB

Started $16.00 and came in 6th last run at Kilmore. Might be ridden for luck. Looks hopeful.

Not beaten too far when sixth at Kilmore when close behind Spirit Angel over 1m (handicap) six weeks ago; has won at this course; subpar since successful in a handicap at Geelong in March; this looks a decent race so looks opposable.

RSIS

Started 15/1 and finished 6th last time at Kilmore. Likely to get back in the field.

4Mr MargolinScratched11––––

Career

7: 1-0-3

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating40%
Closing Speed20%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-2
Second-up
1: 1-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham
1: 0-0-1
Track Sale
2: 1-0-0
Track Kyneton
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
2: 0-0-2
Distance 1600m
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1615m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
3: 1-0-1
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
2: 0-0-2

Last starts

9Kyneton1887m20 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD310.21L
3Pakenham Synthetic1600m5 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · SYNTHETIC3.9L
1Sale1615m13 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD4-1.5
3Pakenham Synthetic1400m24 Aug 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · SYNTHETIC1.9L
9Sale1717m29 Mar 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · SOFT611.7L
9Stony Creek1600m8 Mar 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · SOFT617L
3Pakenham1400m19 Feb 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD43.25L

Insights

Trainer SR
Negative
Greg Eurell striking at just 7%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 29%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Failed to threaten at Kyneton. Respect on previous sound form.

ILB

Started $9.00 and couldn't maintain the pace when 9th last time at Kyneton but matched against less formidable competition. In fine form this campaign.

Last of nine over 1m1½f at Kyneton (handicap) behind Mike's Hope, last month; likely player if in the same form he showed when winning three starts back.

RSIS

Started 8/1 and faded away to finish 9th last time at Kyneton but facing a weaker group of contenders. In good racing form lately.

5Wondering SpiritScratched15––––

Career

16: 2-1-3

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed80%
Rating60%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
4: 0-1-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-1
Third-up
2: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-0
Track Echuca
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
2: 0-0-0
Distance 2000m
3: 1-0-1
Distance 2020m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2050m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
13: 2-0-2
Going Soft
2: 0-1-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-1

Last starts

4Mornington1500m22 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD31.45L
12Geelong2400m22 May 2026 · 3UP BM62 HCP · SOFT57.9L
5Mornington2020m28 Apr 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD44.4L
1Mornington2050m5 Apr 2026 · BM56 · GOOD3-0.2
5Geelong1750m22 Mar 2026 · BM56 · GOOD42.8L
4Echuca1600m8 Mar 2026 · BM56 · GOOD44.3L
5Caulfield Heath1600m18 Feb 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD49L
4Cranbourne1500m30 Jan 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD31L

Insights

Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 22% better than Career Avg.
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Went back, closed intently at Mornington off long spell. Strips fitter second run back and suited over the longer trip. Worth a look.

ILB

Closed off nicely when 4th last run at Mornington.

Finished fourth beaten 1½l over 7½f at Mornington (handicap) dropped back in distance last month; this is his level; shown he can win fairly recently and might have a say.

RSIS

Edged past some when finishing 4th last start at Mornington.

6Ballistic RomeoJ: Zac Spain·T: Jason Warren661kg1 14 9 6 99: 1-1-0$11.00$3.20

Career

9: 1-1-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
Early Speed100%
Rating60%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
2: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
2: 0-0-0
Track Mornington
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1715m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
5: 1-0-0
Going Heavy
2: 0-1-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0

Last starts

9Mornington1500m22 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD35.55L
6Caulfield Heath1000m1 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)6.5L
9Geelong1715m4 June 2026 · BM62 · HEAVY1071.8L
14Flemington2000m16 May 2026 · 3Y HCP · GOOD413.2L
1Sale1717m3 May 2026 · 2yo+ · GOOD3-5
5Caulfield Heath1500m23 Apr 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)3.3L
5Pakenham2000m9 Apr 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · SOFT56.5L
2Pakenham2000m26 Mar 2026 · 3yo+ · HEAVY90.8L

Insights

Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 25% lower than Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Trainer Form
Positive
In form stable, out performing market expectations 76%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 57% POT in L100 Runners
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 34% in L100 rides
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 10%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out

Comments

AAP

Raced in back half and was never in a position to mount a serious challenge at Mornington. Looking elsewhere.

ILB

Lost ground in the run home when 9th last run at Mornington. Should muster plenty of early speed. Very capable of taking this out.

Finished ninth of 12 over 7½f at Mornington (handicap) last month; this is competitive and looks risky.

RSIS

Couldn't stay in touch when 9th last start at Mornington. Should jump out and bowl along. Good potential.

7So Long AgoJ: Dylan Dunn·T: P A Banks460.5kg1 1 3 9 921: 2-0-1$3.50$1.50

Career

21: 2-0-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer40%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating40%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Sandown
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
5: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
5: 0-0-0
Going Good
15: 1-0-1
Going Heavy
3: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 1-0-0

Last starts

9Geelong1700m21 Oct 2026 · 3UP BM70 HCP · GOOD44.52L
9Ballarat1400m9 Oct 2026 · 3UP BM62 HCP · GOOD43.33L
3Kyneton1862m13 Mar 2026 · 3UP BM56 HCP · GOOD43.3L
1Kyneton1887m27 Feb 2026 · BM56 · SOFT6-1.3
1Werribee1600m17 Feb 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD4-6.8
9Sandown1600m4 Feb 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD44.9L
10Geelong1525m20 Jan 2026 · F&M MDN-SW · GOOD313.4L
8Colac1610m6 Jan 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD38.7L

Insights

Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 53% better than Career Avg.
Trainer SR
Negative
Paul Banks striking at just 2%
Key Rider
Positive
Dylan Dunn 68% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 40%
Hot Jockey
Positive
Dylan Dunn in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 68%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 10%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early

Comments

AAP

Sent out $81 when unable to threaten this track second-up. Could get into the placings.

ILB

Started at $81.00 and faded away to finish 9th last start here but stepping down to a lower level. Should muster plenty of early toe. Suited on soft going. Respect the betting.

Finished ninth of 12 two weeks ago upped to this trip; is passed over as has a lot on her plate here.

RSIS

Was 80/1 and weakened to finish 9th last start around here but competing at a lower level of competition. Has plenty of early pace. Goes up in weight. Watch the betting.

8Devine GruntJ: Jack Hill·T: Aaron Laing160kg3 8 8 6 312: 1-0-3$9.00$2.80

Career

12: 1-0-3

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offmidfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating60%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
3: 0-0-1
Second-up
2: 0-0-1
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 1-0-0
Track Echuca
2: 0-0-2
Track Pakenham
1: 0-0-0
Track Sale
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1862m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1968m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 2050m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
3: 0-0-2
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
8: 1-0-1

Last starts

3Yarra Valley1968m24 Oct 2026 · 0 - 56 · SOFT55L
6Moe2050m18 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD32.71L
8Pakenham Synthetic1600m5 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · SYNTHETIC6L
8Sale1732m13 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD44.6L
3Echuca1600m30 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT70.9L
9Kyneton1862m13 Mar 2026 · 3UP BM56 HCP · GOOD411.7L
1Moe1600m22 Feb 2026 · MDN-SW · GOOD4-0.8
4Pakenham2500m16 Jan 2026 · MDN-SW · GOOD418L

Insights

Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 24% in Last 100 Rides
Jockey Booking
Positive
Jack Hill 22% above market expected in L100 Rides
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Improved L/S
Positive
Improved again last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Winner too strong but ran on for the minors at Yarra Glen. Coming back in distance. Hard fit, warrants attention.

ILB

Finished with intent when 3rd beaten by 5L last time at Yarra Valley and gets the perfect gate. Shows good closing speed. Expecting a strong showing.

You have to go back a fair way to find his only win; ran a solid race finishing third over 1m2f at Yarra Glen (handicap) last month.

RSIS

Managed to run 3rd beaten by 5L last start at Yarra Vstall and will appreciate a good draw. Shows good closing pace. Has definite claims.

9EpeiricJ: Fred W Kersley·T: Paul & Tracey Templeton360kg8 1 4 7 56: 1-0-0$4.00$1.70

Career

6: 1-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer20%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating40%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1247m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1514m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
3: 1-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

5Sale1600m25 Oct 2026 · 3UP BM66 HCP · HEAVY102.01L
7Pakenham Synthetic1400m5 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · SYNTHETIC6.58L
4Pakenham1400m9 Apr 2026 · Benchmark 62 · SOFT54.8L
1Sale1717m8 Jan 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD3-1.5
8Yarra Valley1514m19 Dec 2025 · 3UP F&M MDN-SW · GOOD35.4L
6Geelong1247m4 Dec 2025 · 3YF MDN-SW · GOOD45.5L

Insights

Trainer SR
Negative
P & T Templeton striking at just 3%
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 64%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 57%
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Wet To Dry
Negative
Coming from a wet to dry (Heavy 8 to Good 4) track may prove difficult
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Weight Rise
Negative
Carrying 5kg more than LS

Comments

AAP

Made late rally from the back at Sale when second-up. Stripping fitter, not out of this.

ILB

Jumped at $21.00 and made some ground when 5th last run at Sale and up against a less challenging field. Has to cope with a weight increase. Not at all out of this race.

Far from disgraced (beaten 2l) over 1m at Sale (handicap) two weeks ago; has to be considered if duplicating the form of her most recent win.

RSIS

Odds of 20/1 and advanced late into 5th last time at Sale and will appreciate the drop in grade. Carrying more weight than last time. Not without a chance.

10SakakibaraJ: Bailey Kinninmont·T: Symon Wilde760kg3 13 8 9 77: 1-0-2$11.00$3.30

Career

7: 1-0-2

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey80%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed80%
Rating40%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
2: 1-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Track Warrnambool
2: 0-0-0
Track Ararat
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1400m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1547m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
3: 0-0-2
Going Good
5: 1-0-1
Going Soft
2: 0-0-1

Last starts

7Warrnambool1700m15 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD46.5L
9Warrnambool1700m21 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD45.26L
8Geelong1547m28 Aug 2026 · 3UP BM62 HCP · SOFT718.3L
13Caulfield1600m14 Mar 2026 · BM80 HCP · GOOD48.7L
3Ararat1600m3 Mar 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT71.6L
3Ballarat1600m14 Feb 2026 · BM62 · GOOD45.5L
1Camperdown1400m17 Jan 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD3-0.3
7Colac800m19 June 2025 · Barrier Trial11.5L

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 34% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 10%
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Raced in back half and was never in a position to mount a serious challenge at Warrnambool. Needs a form spike.

ILB

At $26.00 ran 7th last run at Warrnambool but competing in a less challenging grade. Has shown early pace in races to date. Large claim helps. Watch for a sign in the market.

Form has an uneven look to it; finished seventh, beaten a fair way at Warrnambool last month (wore blinkers); hard enough to fancy as this looks a fair heat.

RSIS

Started at 25/1 and ran 7th last start at Warrnambool but stepping down to a lower level. Should be going forward early. The large claim from Bailey Kinninmont helps. Could be in the mix.

11I'MfallinforyouJ: Lachlan King·T: Dennis Julius1258kg4 6 4 7 116: 1-0-3$21.00$4.20

Career

16: 1-0-3

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed20%
Rating40%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Tatura
1: 0-0-1
Track Moe
2: 1-0-1
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2000m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
7: 1-0-2
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-1
Going Soft
7: 0-0-0

Last starts

1Moe1600m18 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD3-0.5
7Ballarat2000m18 Sept 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD49.66L
4Mornington1500m4 Sept 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · SOFT53L
6Wangaratta1400m23 Aug 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · SOFT75L
4Cranbourne1300m16 July 2026 · 2yo+ · HEAVY94.1L
5Mornington2435m10 Nov 2025 · MDN-SW · SOFT55.52L
3Yarra Valley1968m25 Oct 2025 · 3yo+ · GOOD43.25L
3Tatura1980m30 Sept 2025 · 3yo+ · GOOD35.5L

Insights

Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 40% in Last 100 Rides
Jockey Booking
Positive
Lachlan King 50% above market expected in L100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 297%
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Wide Draw
Negative
Likely to get caught wide
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Reeled in leaders to salute at Moe. Tackling stronger now but can't discount.

ILB

Finished hard to win last time at Moe. Jockey Lachlan King and trainer Dennis Julius have a high strike rate together. Could feature here.

Has taken a step forward the last twice; things dropped right over 1m at Moe (maiden) when winning by half a length three weeks ago; despite that Moe success, others have more pressing claims.

RSIS

Finished well when winning last start at Moe. Jockey Lachlan King and trainer Dennis Julius must be respected as a team. Has some claims.

12Spirit AngelJ: Nathan Punch·T: Brian Mcgrath1157kg2 3 6 3 232: 2-6-7$9.00$2.80

Career

32: 2-6-7

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating40%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
5: 0-1-1
Second-up
4: 0-0-0
Third-up
4: 1-0-2
Fourth-up
4: 0-2-1
Track Pakenham
2: 0-1-0
Track Sale
1: 0-0-0
Track Donald
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1100m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
3: 0-1-0
Distance 1400m
5: 0-0-2
Going Good
20: 2-5-5
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
6: 0-1-1

Last starts

2Bairnsdale1600m12 Oct 2026 · 3UP BM56 HCP · SOFT71.75L
3Kilmore1600m28 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD32.35L
6Pakenham Synthetic1400m24 Aug 2026 · 3UP BM56 HCP · SYNTHETIC5.1L
3Pakenham Synthetic1200m10 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · SYNTHETIC4.4L
2Stony Creek1600m15 Feb 2026 · 0 - 56 · GOOD42L
4Werribee1618m1 Feb 2026 · 0 - 56 · GOOD43.1L
1Hanging Rock1800m1 Jan 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD4-2.8
7Kerang1400m27 Dec 2025 · 0 - 56 · GOOD33L

Insights

Trainer SR
Negative
Brian McGrath striking at just 8%
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 81%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 28%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Ready To Fire
Positive
Shown something in last few runs

Comments

AAP

Put in a long run from the back at Bairnsdale. Form sound this level without winning. Both efforts here stack up. Can challenge again.

ILB

Finished amongst the placegetters when 2nd last run at Bairnsdale and displaying improvement over the past few runs. Showing great form since coming back from a spell. Watch betting.

Ran encouragingly when just under 2l second at Bairnsdale over 1m (handicap) last month; infrequent winner; passed over as regularly been coming up a bit short lately.

RSIS

Solid effort when placing 2nd beaten by 1 3/4L last time at Bairnsdale and on an upward trajectory in recent races. Running with confidence lately. Not at all out of this race.

13Cuban DawnJ: Neil Farley·T: David & Coral Feek256.5kg2 10 11 10 1126: 1-4-5$16.00$3.80

Career

26: 1-4-5

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed80%
Rating60%
Closing Speed20%

Record

First-up
4: 0-0-2
Second-up
3: 0-1-0
Third-up
3: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track St Arnaud
1: 1-0-0
Track Stony Creek
1: 0-1-0
Track Ascot
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
3: 0-1-0
Distance 1425m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1765m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
13: 1-3-2
Going Soft
8: 0-1-2
Going Synthetic
5: 0-0-1

Last starts

11Bairnsdale1600m20 Sept 2026 · 0 - 56 · GOOD316.06L
10Kilmore2000m13 Sept 2026 · 0 - 56 · GOOD49.4L
11Bairnsdale1600m4 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT56.4L
10Ballarat Synthetic1500m27 July 2026 · 2yo+ · SYNTHETIC6.9L
2Bendigo1400m13 June 2026 · 0 - 56 · SOFT50.5L
3Werribee1425m30 May 2026 · 0 - 56 · SOFT63.5L
6Werribee2256m1 Feb 2026 · 0 - 56 · GOOD48L
2Stony Creek2100m30 Dec 2025 · 3UP BM56 HCP · GOOD41.5L

Insights

Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 18% better than Career Avg.
Key Rider
Positive
Neil Farley 23% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are under performing market expectations by -35%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Fresh
Positive
Freshened up. Had a break of 42-60 days
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Let-up (48-days). Finished out the back at Bairnsdale at longer odds. Others with more appeal.

ILB

Freshened up. Jumped at $19.00 and didn't threaten when 11th last time at Bairnsdale but drawn nicely. Will be positive in the run early. Rates as one of the key chances.

Patchy form recently and just the one victory on his CV; last of 11 over 1m at Bairnsdale (handicap) when dropped in distance 48 days ago; record suggests he is usually one to take on for win purposes so hard to recommend.

RSIS

Let up. Started 18/1 and didn't attack the line when 11th last start at Bairnsdale but has a positive draw. Will be positive in the run early. Solid prospects.

14Pro VelocityJ: Sam Kennedy·T: G C Strang1055.5kg2 7 11 6 928: 2-2-2$91.00$12.00

Career

28: 2-2-2

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer20%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed60%
Rating40%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
4: 1-0-0
Second-up
3: 0-0-1
Third-up
3: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
3: 0-1-0
Track Canberra
1: 0-0-0
Track Hawkesbury
7: 1-0-0
Track Bathurst
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1612m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1625m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2000m
6: 0-1-0
Going Good
13: 2-2-1
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
12: 0-0-1

Last starts

9Kilmore1612m30 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT514.1L
6Alexandra1540m24 Oct 2026 · Open · GOOD35.21L
11Kyneton1856m8 Oct 2026 · 3UP BM56 HCP · SOFT516.65L
7Bairnsdale2200m20 Sept 2026 · 0 - 56 · GOOD37.75L
2Kilmore2000m13 Sept 2026 · 0 - 56 · GOOD43.3L
9Wangaratta2000m23 Aug 2026 · 3UP BM56 HCP · SOFT710.3L
4Moe1600m13 Aug 2026 · 3UP BM56 HCP · HEAVY107L
7Bairnsdale1600m4 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT54.8L

Insights

Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 30% better than Career Avg.
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 2%
Key Rider
Positive
Sam Kennedy 58% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 60%
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Winless Prep
Negative
Expect the drought to continue

Comments

AAP

Settled back and didn't come on at Kilmore. First time around Geelong. Needs to up her game.

ILB

Backing up quickly. Odds of $51.00 and lacklustre showing when 9th last time at Kilmore. Will be facing a challenge.

Held in ninth over 1m at Kilmore (handicap) last Friday; has struggled to factor since winning a conditions race at Beaumont in February; this looks a decent race so hard enough to fancy.

RSIS

Racing on a quick back up. Started 50/1 and mediocre performance when 9th last time at Kilmore.

15Tosen GloryScratched3––––

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey50%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
Early Speed20%
Rating50%
Closing Speed80%

Insights

Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 19%
Form At Track
Negative
Yet to win here
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Ridden back and never a factor at Wodonga over longer test. Drops to shorter trip. Has the ability but lift needed on last effort.

ILB

Odds of $9.00 and just average when 7th last start at Wodonga.

RSIS

Was 8/1 and ordinary performance when 7th last run at Wodonga.

16A Blue StarJ: Amy Herrmann·T: P D Graesser854kg12 3 4 10 1039: 1-3-2$101.00$14.00

Career

39: 1-3-2

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer20%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed80%
Rating20%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
5: 1-0-0
Second-up
4: 0-0-0
Third-up
4: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
4: 0-0-1
Track Geelong
3: 0-0-0
Track Casterton
4: 0-1-1
Track Ballarat Synthetic
6: 0-0-1
Distance 1856m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2000m
7: 0-1-0
Distance 2200m
6: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
6: 0-0-0
Going Soft
11: 1-1-1
Going Synthetic
6: 0-0-1

Last starts

10Warrnambool1400m1 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · HEAVY917.71L
10Warrnambool1400m21 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD44.68L
4Ballarat Synthetic1500m18 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · SYNTHETIC2.2L
3Casterton1400m9 Aug 2026 · 0 - 56 · SOFT73.3L
12Coleraine2250m19 July 2026 · BM56 HWGT · SOFT547.5L
3Ballarat Synthetic2100m3 July 2026 · 2yo+ · SYNTHETIC1.5L
9Ballarat Synthetic2200m21 June 2026 · BM56 · SYNTHETIC11.4L
10Warrnambool2000m14 June 2026 · BM56 HWGT · HEAVY1016.7L

Insights

Trainer SR
Negative
Paul Graesser striking at just 1%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 71%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 72% Profit on Turnover
Well beaten LS
Negative
Not competitive last run
Gap In Runs
Negative
Not raced for 37 days
Wet To Dry
Negative
Coming from a wet to dry (Heavy 8 to Good 4) track may prove difficult
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

5 weeks since last run. Long losing streak. Finished well down the track in 3yo+ (Bm62) at Warrnambool last outing. Keener on others.

ILB

Odds of $91.00 and gave away some ground when 10th last run at Warrnambool but taking on a lower class of opponents. Others are better.

Useful at this level; finished last of ten over 7f at Warrnambool (handicap) last month.

RSIS

Started 90/1 and couldn't maintain the pace when 10th last time at Warrnambool but competing at a lower grade.

Odds correct as at Sat 7 Nov, 3:30 pm AEDT. Odds can change.

Past meetings

Wed 21 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 9 races
Wed 7 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 8 races
Wed 23 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 8 races
Fri 11 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 9 races