Geelong (VIC) horses tips & previews

8 Nov, 1:03 am AEDT

One race at a time: field, form guide and win/place odds for Geelong (VIC), with capture times on every price.

Meeting — Sat 7 Nov, 11:00 am AEDT

Meetings · Sat, 7 NovGeelong (VIC)Change

Race 7 — Premier Fencing Ballan Cup (Bm78) 1518m · jumps Sat 7 Nov, 4:46 pm AEDT

Race notes

3yo+,BM78,Benchmark 78
SOFT6
Showers
13 runners

Shortest win price

Romantic Encounter (3)

4.00

Speed map

Back left · leaders right

Backmarker

10Geffina

Offmidfield

15Desert Anthem

Midfield

4Taung
13Shaalute

Offpace

6Lario
1Bullets High
9Kurakka
2World's My Oyster
5Jareth
8Just Berrilliant

Onpace

14Miss Castelvecchio

Leader

7Fridge Monster
3Romantic Encounter

Bullets High · Positive
Rider SR
Jockey recent POT is 24% better than Career Avg.
World's My Oyster · Positive
Rider SR
Jockey recent POT is 18% better than Career Avg.
Romantic Encounter · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 22% in Last 100 Rides
Taung · Positive
Ran On Hard LS
Ran on well last start

No.RunnerBarWgtLast 5WinPlace

1Bullets HighJ: Jack Hill·T: K T Bourke1259kg9 9 10 8 727: 4-5-2$31.00$5.50

Career

27: 4-5-2

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating40%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
3: 2-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-1-0
Third-up
2: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-1
Track Echuca
1: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
2: 0-0-0
Track Warrnambool
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
5: 0-2-1
Distance 1800m
3: 0-0-0
Distance 2000m
3: 0-1-1
Going Good
17: 2-4-2
Going Heavy
2: 0-1-0
Going Soft
8: 2-0-0

Last starts

7Geelong1500m21 Oct 2026 · BM 78 HCP · GOOD45.21L
8Geelong1125m23 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD35.37L
10Flemington1200m18 July 2026 · BM88 · SOFT66.1L
9Flemington1200m4 July 2026 · LISTED QUALITY · SOFT73.5L
9Flemington1800m16 May 2026 · BM84 · GOOD46.3L
4Warrnambool1700m5 May 2026 · 2yo+ · HEAVY81.7L
4Mornington1600m18 Apr 2026 · 3UP BM84 HCP · GOOD42.3L
3Warracknabeal1600m4 Apr 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD30.7L

Insights

Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 24% better than Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Positive
Jack Hill 22% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -42% POT in their L100 Races
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Winless Prep
Negative
Expect the drought to continue

Comments

AAP

Winless since 11 Jan 2025. Went home tamely this course at $51. Locally trained but has an adverse draw. Has plenty to find on latest offerings. On trust.

ILB

At $51.00 faded away to finish 7th last time at this venue but facing less formidable opponents. Considerable improvement needed.

Held when seventh beaten just over 5l two weeks ago upped to this distance; shown only moderate recent form; facing a testing assignment and others make more appeal.

RSIS

Started 50/1 and didn't find the line when 7th last run at this venue but matched against less formidable competition.

2World's My OysterJ: Neil Farley·T: Henry Dwyer1358.5kg1 1 10 16 99: 5-0-0$34.00$5.50

Career

9: 5-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer40%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed80%
Rating80%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
3: 2-0-0
Second-up
1: 1-0-0
Third-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Track Morphettville
4: 2-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1103m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1200m
3: 1-0-0
Going Good
7: 5-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0

Last starts

9Geelong1200m21 Oct 2026 · 3UP BM84 HCP · GOOD46.35L
16Morphettville1600m25 Apr 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD45.8L
10Morphettville1529m11 Apr 2026 · CITY ADELAIDE · SOFT66L
1Morphettville1600m7 Feb 2026 · BM78 · GOOD4-0.4
1Murray Bridge1400m17 Jan 2026 · BM70 · GOOD4-0.8
1Morphettville1200m27 Dec 2025 · 4UP CL2 · GOOD4-0.6
4Swan Hill1200m8 June 2025 · 3Y BM64 HCP · SOFT73L
1Kyneton1103m8 May 2025 · 2yo+ · GOOD-0.5

Insights

Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 18% better than Career Avg.
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 7%
Key Rider
Positive
Neil Farley 23% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -32% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 35%
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 20%
Well beaten LS
Negative
Not competitive last run
Wide Draw
Negative
Likely to get caught wide

Comments

AAP

Never a threat after showing no early speed from the barriers this course after lengthy absence. Has a tricky draw and rising in weight. Hard to warm to.

ILB

Lost ground in the run home when 9th last time at the track but competing at a lower level of competition. Will go close.

Finished last of nine here over 6f (handicap) last month; a big player as she knows how to get her head in front.

RSIS

Couldn't stay in touch when 9th last run here but stepping down to a lower level. Rates as one of the key chances.

3Romantic EncounterJ: Brad Rawiller·T: Ben, Will & Jd Hayes858kg9 5 6 2 310: 1-2-1$4.00$1.75

Career

10: 1-2-1

Rating · IRD

100

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
Early Speed100%
Rating100%
Closing Speed60%

Record

First-up
3: 1-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Cranbourne
2: 0-1-1
Track Bendigo
1: 1-0-0
Track Caulfield
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1400m
4: 0-1-1
Going Heavy
2: 1-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
7: 0-2-1

Last starts

3Cranbourne1400m23 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD34.15L
2Cranbourne1400m25 Sept 2026 · 3UP BM70 HCP · GOOD40.75L
6Sandown1400m9 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT73.9L
5Sandown1300m22 Aug 2026 · BM88 · HEAVY86.4L
9Flemington1600m28 Feb 2026 · 3yo · GOOD43.7L
4Flemington1400m14 Feb 2026 · 3yo · GOOD43L
9Caulfield1200m24 Jan 2026 · 3yo · GOOD33L
12Caulfield1600m11 Oct 2025 · 3yo · GOOD37.1L

Insights

Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 22% in Last 100 Rides
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 26% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 25%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Placed 3yo+ (Bm70) at Cranbourne 25 Sep. Fair way from the winner but battled home into third at Cranbourne. Each way claims.

ILB

Ran 3rd last time at Cranbourne. Shows good early pace. Good chance at a nice price.

Out of the frame (beaten just over 4l in third) at Cranbourne over 7f (handicap) 15 days ago; may have to settle for supporting role.

RSIS

Honest race when 3rd last time at Cranbourne. Should come to hand quickly. Great chance.

4TaungJ: Eoin Walsh·T: Matthew Cumani458kg1 1 1 1 314: 4-1-3$12.00$3.50

Career

14: 4-1-3

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
Early Speed100%
Rating40%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
4: 1-0-2
Second-up
3: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
2: 0-0-2
Track Swan Hill
1: 0-0-0
Track Wangaratta
2: 1-1-0
Distance 1300m
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1400m
4: 1-0-1
Distance 1500m
2: 2-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
4: 3-0-0
Going Good
9: 1-1-3

Last starts

3Caulfield1400m21 Mar 2026 · BM84 · GOOD42.1L
1Wangaratta1300m28 Feb 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD3-0.1
1Ballarat Synthetic1500m26 Aug 2025 · 3yo+ · SYNTHETIC-1.3
1Ballarat Synthetic1500m11 Aug 2025 · BM58 HCP · SYNTHETIC-3.5
1Ballarat Synthetic1400m22 July 2025 · 2UP MDN-SW · SYNTHETIC-6
6Warrnambool1700m30 Apr 2025 · 3Y MDN-SW · SOFT64.3L
6Morphettville1800m12 Apr 2025 · Set Weights · GOOD44.25L
6Caulfield1600m15 Mar 2025 · 3Y SW · GOOD44.2L

Insights

Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Consistent
Positive
Showing up at the business end

Comments

AAP

Resuming (33-weeks). Fresh winner at Wangaratta last campaign. Been thereabouts here. Worth a look fresh in this company.

ILB

First run back from spell of 33 weeks. Managed to run into 3rd beaten by 2L last run at Caulfield and up against a less competitive field. Will be a difficult assignment.

Successful four times from 14 career runs; produced a good effort to finish third over 7f at Caulfield (handicap) in March; returns from an absence here.

RSIS

Resuming from a 33 week break. Did well to place 3rd beaten by 2L last time at Caulfield and facing weaker opposition.

5JarethJ: Carleen Hefel·T: C Maher957.5kg3 1 3 5 212: 2-2-2$9.00$2.90

Career

12: 2-2-2

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo60%
Early Speed80%
Rating40%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
3: 0-0-1
Second-up
2: 1-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
2: 0-1-0
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-0-1
Track Bendigo
1: 0-1-0
Track Caulfield
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1800m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 2000m
3: 0-0-1
Distance 2200m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
5: 2-1-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-1
Going Soft
6: 0-1-0

Last starts

2Bendigo2200m2 May 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD30.2L
5Caulfield2000m11 Apr 2026 · BM74 · SOFT71.7L
3Flemington2000m28 Mar 2026 · 3UP BM84 HCP · HEAVY82.8L
1Pakenham1600m6 Mar 2026 · 3UP BM70 HCP · GOOD4-0.2
3Cranbourne1600m13 Feb 2026 · 3UP BM70 HCP · GOOD31.5L
4Flemington2000m21 Sept 2025 · 3UP BM70 HCP · GOOD41.3L
2Caulfield1800m30 Aug 2025 · BM78 · SOFT50.35L
5Sandown1600m13 Aug 2025 · 3yo+ · SOFT51.6L

Insights

Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Ready To Fire
Positive
Shown something in last few runs
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

First-up (27-weeks). Held form well last time in. In the minors at Cranbourne first-up last campaign. Well placed to make an impact here.

ILB

First up from a spell of 27 weeks. Threw down a serious challenge last start at Bendigo but back to a shorter distance. Slim possibilty.

Running consistently; not beaten far over 1m3f at Bendigo (handicap) in May; returns from an absence here.

RSIS

Fresh after break of 27 weeks. Narrowly denied a win last start at Bendigo but down in trip.

6LarioJ: Damien Thornton·T: D T O'Brien557.5kg1 1 2 5 722: 5-3-4$18.00$4.00

Career

22: 5-3-4

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer20%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating80%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
6: 1-1-2
Second-up
3: 1-0-0
Third-up
3: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Sandown
3: 0-1-0
Track Geelong
5: 3-0-0
Track Caulfield Heath
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1540m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
5: 2-1-0
Distance 1700m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
15: 4-1-3
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
6: 1-2-1

Last starts

7Geelong1300m21 Oct 2026 · 3UP BM70 HCP · GOOD46.1L
5Caulfield Heath1000m1 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)7.7L
2Murray Bridge1600m23 May 2026 · BM76 · SOFT50.3L
1Seymour1600m26 Apr 2026 · 3UP BM78 HCP · SOFT5-0.5
1Geelong1700m1 Apr 2026 · BM66 · GOOD4-0.4
4Sandown1800m11 Mar 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD44.7L
5Caulfield Heath1600m18 Feb 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD44L
6Geelong1540m26 Jan 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD43.1L

Insights

Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 22% in Last 100 Rides
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 9%
Key Rider
Positive
Damien Thornton 23% above market expected in L100 Rides
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 40%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 44% Profit on Turnover
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Form At Track
Positive
3 time winner here at Geelong
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Went home tamely this venue off extended spell at $8.50. Strips in better shape. Can fill the minors here.

ILB

Odds of $8.50 and looked outclassed when 7th last run around here but gets some weight relief. Definite contender.

Finished just behind Bold Strike when seventh over 6½f here (handicap) last month; loves this track (three course wins); can give it a good shot.

RSIS

At 15/2 couldn't maintain the pace when 7th last start at this track but carrying less weight this time. Hard to see finishing out of the placings.

7Fridge MonsterJ: Sheridan Clarke·T: D Binaisse1157kg9 14 13 12 423: 6-5-3$8.00$2.70

Career

23: 6-5-3

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating40%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
3: 0-1-1
Second-up
2: 0-0-1
Third-up
2: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Echuca
1: 0-1-0
Track CurrentTrack
3: 1-1-1
Track Sale
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1400m
6: 1-1-0
Distance 1420m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1535m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
7: 3-1-1
Going Heavy
4: 1-0-0
Going Soft
12: 2-4-2

Last starts

4Cranbourne1400m25 Sept 2026 · 3UP BM70 HCP · GOOD42.3L
12Sandown1400m9 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT77L
13Sandown1400m15 July 2026 · BM78 · HEAVY910.3L
14Flemington1420m20 June 2026 · BM84 · SOFT713.5L
9Caulfield1200m30 May 2026 · BM84 · HEAVY88.4L
1Moe1600m16 Nov 2025 · 3UP BM78 HCP · GOOD4-1.3
1Geelong1535m8 Nov 2025 · BALLAN CUP · HEAVY9-3.8
3Geelong1500m23 Oct 2025 · Benchmark 78 · SOFT70.6L

Insights

Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 96%
Trainer Form
Positive
In form stable, out performing market expectations 75%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 57% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 25%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Fresh
Positive
Freshened up. Had a break of 42-60 days

Comments

AAP

Let-up (43-days). Settled close and ran an honest race at Cranbourne. Draw makes the job harder. Could give some cheek at odds.

ILB

Let up. At $16.00 faded away when 4th last start at Cranbourne. Has the early speed to burn across from the wide draw. Take on trust.

A previous winner here; useful at this level; solid effort over 7f at Cranbourne (handicap, not far behind Romantic Encounter) 43 days ago; has struck up a good partnership with this rider, who is back on board; shown he can get his head in front so has a chance.

RSIS

Freshened up. Started 15/1 and got tired late when 4th last start at Cranbourne. The wide stall shouldn't be a problem with plenty of early pace.

8Just BerrilliantJ: Joe Bowditch·T: Shea Eden657kg2 1 1 8 412: 3-2-1$71.00$9.00

Career

12: 3-2-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
Early Speed20%
Rating20%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Sandown
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat
1: 1-0-0
Track Flemington
2: 0-0-0
Distance 2000m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 2020m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 2580m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
11: 2-2-1
Going Soft
1: 1-0-0

Last starts

4Cranbourne1600m2 May 2025 · 2UP BM70 HCP · GOOD34.3L
8Flemington2800m1 Jan 2025 · Handicap · GOOD313.4L
1Cranbourne2580m20 Dec 2024 · BenchMark 64 · GOOD3-1.5
1Ballarat2600m14 Nov 2024 · BenchMark 64 · GOOD4-0.3
2Sale2200m27 Oct 2024 · BenchMark 64 · GOOD30.1L
3Mornington2020m10 Oct 2024 · BenchMark 64 · GOOD31.52L
10Flemington1630m22 Sept 2024 · BenchMark 70 · GOOD35.55L
10Sandown1400m4 Sept 2024 · BM64 HCP · GOOD34L

Insights

Long Break
Negative
Resumes from a 554 day break (> 300 days)
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Resuming after a (79-weeks) spell. Just the one assignment last prep. 3rd & 5th from latest jump-outs. Would need a serious betting push off the long spell.

ILB

First up from a 79 week break. Started at $20.00 and improved when 4th last start at Cranbourne and will appreciate the drop in weight. Will need to find a new peak.

Has managed three wins from 12 career runs; not beaten that far in fourth (4½l) over 1m at Cranbourne (handicap) when dropped in distance 18 months ago; not seen for some time now; first start for trainer; one to consider.

RSIS

Resumes from a 79 week break. Odds of 19/1 and improved late to finish 4th last time at Cranbourne and gets some weight relief. First race for a new trainer.

9KurakkaJ: Jabez Johnstone·T: C Maher1057kg3 3 3 2 512: 2-1-5$20.00$4.40

Career

12: 2-1-5

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo60%
Early Speed20%
Rating100%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
3: 1-0-0
Second-up
2: 1-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-2
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Haydock
1: 1-0-0
Track Kempton
2: 0-0-1
Track Newmarket
1: 0-0-1
Distance 2400m
3: 0-1-1
Distance 2412m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 2500m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
9: 2-0-5
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-1-0

Last starts

5Sandown2400m13 June 2026 · BM84 · HEAVY83L
2Sandown2400m23 May 2026 · 3UP BM84 HCP · SOFT70.5L
3Caulfield Heath1400m14 May 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)3.5L
3Flemington2500m25 Apr 2026 · 3UP BM84 HCP · GOOD32.5L
3Caulfield2400m4 Apr 2026 · 3UP BM78 HCP · GOOD31L
5Caulfield Heath1800m18 Mar 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD40.8L
7Sandown1400m25 Feb 2026 · 3UP CG&E BM74 HCP · SOFT59.1L
3Goodwood2412m30 July 2025 · GBBPlus Race · GOOD1.85L

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -21% POT in their L100 Races
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 25%
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Import returning for second Australian campaign (21-weeks). Form honest through last campaign. One for multiples fresh in this affair.

ILB

Had a break from racing and returns to competition. Started at $7.50 and edged past some when finishing 5th last start at Sandown and facing a weaker grade. Forward showing expected.

Not beaten too far (3l) over 1m4f at Sandown (handicap) five months ago; has had some time off; not hard to turn elsewhere as regularly been coming up a bit short lately.

RSIS

Resumes from a break. Started 13/2 and moved through the field into 5th last time at Sandown on a heavy track and goes down in class. Good chance in this.

10GeffinaJ: Tom Madden·T: Aaron Purcell756.5kg2 6 1 7 1130: 6-4-6$41.00$7.00

Career

30: 6-4-6

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
Early Speed20%
Rating60%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
2: 1-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Donald
1: 0-0-0
Track Bendigo
1: 0-0-0
Track Murray Bridge
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1225m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
17: 2-2-4
Going Heavy
4: 2-1-0
Going Soft
9: 2-1-2

Last starts

11Hamilton1600m10 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT56.76L
7Murray Bridge1600m26 Sept 2026 · BM74 · GOOD42.34L
1Sandown1400m9 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT7-0.5
6Sandown1600m1 July 2026 · Benchmark 70 · HEAVY93.1L
2Swan Hill1600m5 June 2026 · BM70 · SOFT61.3L
1Mount Gambier1550m22 May 2026 · BLUE LAKE · SOFT7-1.6
1Warrnambool1400m7 May 2026 · 2UP F&M BM70 HCP · HEAVY10-0.5
2Terang1400m12 Apr 2026 · 3UP BM66 HCP · HEAVY100.2L

Insights

Needs To Imp
Negative
Finished towards the tail last start
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Imprv Needed
Negative
Would need to lift here to feature
Weight Drop
Positive
Drops 4.5kg from LS run

Comments

AAP

Now 4 weeks between runs. Never a threat after showing no early speed from the barriers at Hamilton. Leaning towards others here.

ILB

Jumped at $5.50 and lacklustre showing when 11th last run at Hamilton but goes down in weight. Expected to settle towards the tail. Can't leave out of your calculations.

Finished towards the rear of 13 over 1m at Hamilton (handicap) 28 days ago; meeting some horses in good form and not easy to fancy.

RSIS

Started at 9/2 and ordinary performance when 11th last time at Hamilton but suited by the weight drop. Might have to make up considerable ground. Respect the betting.

11Bold StrikeScratched9––––

Career

17: 3-3-2

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo60%
Early Speed80%
Rating80%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
4: 1-0-1
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-1-0
Track Ararat
1: 1-0-0
Track Sandown
7: 0-1-1
Track Caulfield Heath
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
3: 1-1-0
Distance 1400m
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
12: 3-3-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
4: 0-0-1

Last starts

5Geelong1300m21 Oct 2026 · 3UP BM70 HCP · GOOD44.35L
6Caulfield2000m30 May 2026 · BM84 · HEAVY82.8L
3Caulfield2000m9 May 2026 · 3UP BM78 HCP · SOFT73.5L
1Ballarat2000m30 Apr 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD3-2.8
1Ballarat2000m3 Apr 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD3-0.1
2Cranbourne1600m20 Mar 2026 · 3UP BM62 HCP · GOOD31.5L
6Caulfield Heath1500m4 Mar 2026 · 0 - 66 · GOOD44.5L
4Sandown1400m28 Jan 2026 · 0 - 66 · GOOD41.5L

Insights

Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 35% lower than Career Avg.
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 53% in L100 rides
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Weight Drop
Positive
Drops 4kg from LS run

Comments

AAP

Went home tamely this track off spell at $12. Will be fitter second-up. Not out of this.

ILB

Was $12.00 and inched into 5th last run at the track and gets some weight taken off.

Out of the frame (beaten 4½l in fifth) over 6½f here (handicap) when dropped in distance two weeks ago; this looks a fair heat so others more appealing.

RSIS

Started 11/1 and outpaced some runners late when 5th last time at this track and will benefit with the weight drop.

12Coco JenScratched4––––

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey50%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating50%
Closing Speed40%

Insights

Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 16% POT in L100 Runners
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Raced in back half and was never in a position to mount a serious challenge at Bendigo. Lacks appeal here.

ILB

Faded to finish 11th last time at Bendigo but goes down in class.

RSIS

Tailed off to finish 11th last time at Bendigo but competing at a lower level of competition.

13ShaaluteJ: Bailey Kinninmont·T: M M Laurie355.5kg3 4 2 4 729: 6-4-4$10.00$3.30

Career

29: 6-4-4

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey80%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed20%
Rating60%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
4: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Pakenham
3: 0-0-1
Track Bendigo
3: 0-1-0
Track Sandown
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
13: 2-2-2
Distance 1203m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
16: 2-2-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
4: 1-0-1

Last starts

7Bendigo1400m28 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD43.81L
4Seymour1400m11 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT52.15L
2Bendigo1400m20 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD31.25L
4Ballarat Synthetic1200m31 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · SYNTHETIC4.4L
3Ballarat Synthetic1200m6 Aug 2026 · 3UP BM70 HCP · SYNTHETIC1L
3Pakenham Synthetic1200m20 July 2026 · 2yo+ · SYNTHETIC1.8L
7Flemington1200m6 June 2026 · BM84 · HEAVY88.1L
9Caulfield Heath1200m20 May 2026 · BM74 · SOFT63.3L

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 18% POT in L100 Runners
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Winless Prep
Negative
Expect the drought to continue

Comments

AAP

Long winless run. Warming into it late at Bendigo last time. Place claims.

ILB

Jumped at $17.00 and came in 7th last start at Bendigo but taking on a lower class of opponents. The large claim from Bailey Kinninmont should help. Watch the betting.

Not beaten too far when seventh at Bendigo over 7f (handicap) last week; has won here; this looks a fair heat so not easy to fancy.

RSIS

Started 16/1 and came in 7th last time at Bendigo but drops back to a suitable class. Large claim helps. Could be in the mix.

14Miss CastelvecchioJ: Teodore Nugent·T: Charlotte Littlefield254kg1 7 1 2 217: 4-3-2$4.40$1.85

Career

17: 4-3-2

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo40%
Early Speed80%
Rating60%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
3: 1-1-0
Second-up
2: 1-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-1
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-1-0
Track Kyneton
1: 0-0-0
Track Stony Creek
2: 1-1-0
Distance 1415m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1500m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1600m
7: 1-1-2
Going Good
9: 2-2-1
Going Heavy
4: 2-0-0
Going Soft
4: 0-1-1

Last starts

2Cranbourne1600m16 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD31L
2Mornington1500m26 Sept 2026 · 3UP F&M BM70 HCP · SOFT53.25L
1Sale1415m13 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD4-0.3
7Sandown1600m29 July 2026 · 3UP F&M BM70 HCP · HEAVY1019.4L
1Geelong1443m10 July 2026 · 2UP F&M BM56 HCP · HEAVY8-1.8
4Moe1208m18 June 2026 · Benchmark 62 · HEAVY93L
1Stony Creek1600m30 Dec 2025 · 3UP BM56 HCP · GOOD4-3
3Moe1600m14 Dec 2025 · 3UP BM62 HCP · GOOD41.25L

Insights

Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Racing Solidly
Positive
In peak form
Weight Drop
Positive
Drops 6kg from LS run

Comments

AAP

Holding form. Placed 3yo+ F&M (Bm70) at Mornington 26 Sep. Settled off pace, rallied well but couldn't match winner at Cranbourne. Looks a serious player.

ILB

Ran on when 2nd last run at Cranbourne and can find a nice position from the draw. Showing positive results this preparation and gets some weight relief. Watch for a sign in the market.

Produced a good effort to finish second at Cranbourne over 1m (handicap) last month; track has proven suitable before.

RSIS

Ran on when 2nd beaten by 1L last time at Cranbourne and has a positive stall. Looking sharp on the track of late and goes down in weight. Could feature here.

15Desert AnthemJ: Dean Yendall·T: Matthew Cumani154kg3 2 3 2 219: 2-5-5$6.50$2.40

Career

19: 2-5-5

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offmidfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed80%
Rating60%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
4: 0-0-1
Second-up
3: 0-0-2
Third-up
2: 0-2-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-1
Track Werribee
1: 0-0-0
Track Wangaratta
1: 0-0-0
Track Hamilton
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1800m
3: 0-1-1
Distance 2000m
4: 0-1-2
Distance 2025m
2: 0-1-0
Going Good
15: 2-5-4
Going Soft
4: 0-0-1

Last starts

2Ballarat2000m3 Apr 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD30.1L
2Cranbourne2025m13 Mar 2026 · 3UP BM70 HCP · GOOD40.5L
3Pakenham2000m6 Mar 2026 · 0-66 · GOOD42.8L
2Caulfield Heath1800m18 Feb 2026 · 0 - 66 · GOOD41.3L
3Sandown1800m28 Jan 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD42.15L
3Sandown1600m8 Jan 2026 · 0 - 66 · GOOD41.1L
8Sandown2400m18 June 2025 · 4UP BM74 HCP · GOOD43.6L
3Sandown2100m1 June 2025 · 3yo+ · GOOD40.7L

Insights

Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 23% better than Career Avg.
Key Rider
Positive
Dean Yendall 24% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -38% POT in their L100 Races
Hot Jockey
Positive
Dean Yendall in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 24%
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 1

Comments

AAP

First-up (31-weeks). In the minors at Sandown-Lakeside first-up last campaign. Placed in 6 of 6 starts of last campaign. Can make his presence felt fresh.

ILB

Fresh from a 31 week spell. Right in the mix last time at Ballarat and can save some energy from the draw. Finishes off strongly. Down in trip. Must respect.

Behind Bold Strike at Ballarat over 1m2f (handicap) when close second in April; consistent performer; layoff to overcome.

RSIS

First run back from a break of 31 weeks. Right in contention last run at Ballarat and drawn by the rails. Shows very good finishing pace. Down in distance. Definite winning chance.

Odds correct as at Sat 7 Nov, 4:50 pm AEDT. Odds can change.

Past meetings

Wed 21 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 9 races
Wed 7 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 8 races
Wed 23 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 8 races
Fri 11 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 9 races