Shortest win price
Tishman (4)
4.00
Welcome to Sale for race five on the card, where the rain is falling and the track is rated a soft six for this benchmark sixty-six handicap over twenty-two hundred metres. It is a tricky middle-distance test for the punters to sort out on a damp afternoon. Looking at the early win market order, Navy Heart holds the mantle as the shortest priced runner, closely followed by Tishman, Wolfess, and She's A Con rounding out the top four in the betting ring. Let us dive into the form and see if we can find a winning yarn in the slop.
Taking a closer look at the form behind those shorter quotes, Tishman brings some interesting credentials from the stable of M Price & M Kent Jnr, jumping from barrier nine with Lachlan Neindorf in the saddle. This galloper is resuming from a twelve-week spell and boasts a proven fresh record, alongside a game second-place finish at the only other time contesting this track and distance. Meanwhile, Navy Heart for trainer C Maher comes off a steady run when stepping up in distance at Seymour where it ran on okay without troubling the winner, and this assignment looks very achievable based on that effort. Further down the market, She's A Con for Reece Goodwin maps as a backmarker from barrier four and was not disgraced over a longer assignment at Cranbourne last time out, suggesting fitness is on its side to play a role here. Wolfess rounds out the early fancies from barrier one for G Eurell, though it was safely held in open company at Cranbourne and might be best viewed as a rough place hope in these conditions.
Shortest win price
Tishman (4)
4.00
Most career wins
Ninyo
6-4-3 from 43 starts
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Offmidfield
Midfield
Offpace
Onpace
Leader
Slane · Negative
Jockey Booking
Stephanie Hateley current POT is 35% below Career Avg.
So Brave · Negative
Jockey Booking
Less suitable jockey engaged
Tishman · Negative
Rider
Negative rider change today
Navy Heart · Positive
Trainer ROI
Runners from this stable currently going at 13% POT in L100 Runners
Career
43: 6-6-10
Rating · IRD
95
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
6: 1-0-1
Second-up
5: 0-1-1
Third-up
4: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
4: 1-1-0
Track Caulfield Heath
1: 0-0-0
Track Kilmore
1: 0-1-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2500m
2: 0-0-1
Distance 2580m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 3000m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
30: 6-2-8
Going Soft
9: 0-1-1
Going Synthetic
4: 0-3-1
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
AAP
Got back and wasn't totally disgraced at Seymour second-up. Not fancied.
ILB
Started $7.00 and came in 7th last time at Seymour.
RP
Grade looks suitable; out of the frame (beaten 3½l in seventh) over 1m2f at Seymour (handicap) two weeks ago; one to note.
RSIS
Started 6/1 and ran 7th last time at Seymour.
Career
30: 5-4-5
Rating · IRD
74
Speed map
Leader
First-up
5: 1-0-1
Second-up
4: 1-1-0
Third-up
4: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
3: 0-1-1
Track Moonee Valley
3: 0-1-0
Track Sandown
3: 1-0-1
Track Flemington
4: 0-0-0
Distance 1606m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1800m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 2080m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
20: 3-3-2
Going Heavy
2: 1-0-1
Going Soft
8: 1-1-2
Jockey Booking
Negative
Stephanie Hateley current POT is 35% below Career Avg.
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 10%
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 20%
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 38% in L100 rides
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 14%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
AAP
Midfield, no rally and went to line tamely at Caulfield. At best, a place hope.
ILB
Jumped at $81.00 and didn't threaten when 8th last run at Caulfield but back in an easier grade. Has the early speed to burn across from the wide draw. Will be facing a challenge.
RP
Has winning track form; no impression when eighth of 13 over 1m1f at Caulfield (handicap) five weeks ago; is not ruled out as shown some signs of promise and had excuses last time (crowded).
RSIS
Was 80/1 and lost ground in the run home when 8th last start at Caulfield but lining up against easier rivals. Should be rolling forward early from the wide stall.
Career
13: 3-1-1
Rating · IRD
83
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
4: 1-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Moonee Valley
2: 1-0-0
Track Sandown
1: 0-1-0
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2460m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 2500m
2: 1-0-0
Distance 3200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
10: 2-1-1
Going Soft
3: 1-0-0
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 24% POT in L100 Runners
Needs To Imp
Negative
Finished towards the tail last start
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 2
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Tailed off a long last at Ballarat for new stable. Better for the outing. Capable of making an impact.
ILB
Disappointing run when 11th last time at Ballarat but going up in trip. Daniel Stackhouse rates highly and gets a favourable alley. Finishes off strongly. Watch for a sign in the market.
RP
Beaten a long way over 1m at Ballarat (handicap) 16 days ago on debut for this trainer; a proven winner with a career wins-runs record of 3-13; has struck up a good partnership with this rider, who is back on board; should figure.
RSIS
Disappointing run when 11th last start at Ballarat but gets a favourable stall. Daniel Stackhouse is a key booking and rising in distance. Has a nice turn of foot. Watch the betting.
Career
14: 3-2-2
Rating · IRD
93
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
5: 2-0-1
Second-up
4: 0-0-1
Third-up
3: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-2-0
Track Canterbury
1: 0-0-0
Track Moe
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat
2: 0-0-0
Distance 2226m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1400m
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1600m
3: 0-0-2
Going Good
7: 0-0-2
Going Heavy
4: 1-2-0
Going Soft
3: 2-0-0
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Up In Dist
Positive
Racing at a more suitable distance
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Resuming (12-weeks). Proven fresh performer. Game second only other time over this track and distance. Looks dangerous fresh.
ILB
First up after 12 weeks and displayed a good turn of foot when winning first up last preparation at the track. Should be rolling forward early from the wide gate. Competitive type.
RP
Beaten 6l when sixth of eight over 1m1f at Sandown (handicap) in July; possesses winning form at this track; a few rivals look in good form so hard to recommend.
RSIS
Resuming and strong effort to the line to win resuming last preparation at the track on a heavy surface. Challenged by weaker competitors. Will have to carry more weight. Very tidy performer.
Career
17: 3-0-1
Rating · IRD
77
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
5: 0-0-1
Second-up
3: 1-0-0
Third-up
3: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Moonee Valley
1: 0-0-0
Track Stony Creek
1: 0-0-0
Track Caulfield Heath
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
4: 1-0-0
Distance 1800m
2: 1-0-0
Distance 2000m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
9: 2-0-0
Going Soft
7: 0-0-1
Going Synthetic
1: 1-0-0
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -35% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 23%
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Imprv Needed
Negative
Would need to lift here to feature
AAP
Failed to threaten at Seymour at double-figure odds. First time around Sale. Looking elsewhere.
ILB
Was well beaten when 12th last run at Seymour.
RP
Towards the rear of 13 over 1m2f at Seymour (handicap) 14 days ago; leading claims.
RSIS
Folded up in the straight when 12th last time at Seymour.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Backmarker
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -42% POT in their L100 Races
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Improved L/S
Positive
Improved again last start
Backup
Positive
Racing again inside one week
Blinkers Off
Positive
Blinkers coming off this start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Trimmed margin late at Pakenham Synthetic. Stamina on trial here. Others with more appeal.
ILB
On a quick turnaround. At $7.50 ran 7th last start at Cranbourne.
RSIS
Racing on a quick back up. At 13/2 finished 7th last run at Cranbourne.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Offpace
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 17%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Backup
Positive
Racing again inside one week
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Not disgraced at Geelong second-up at $6. Can't enthuse.
ILB
Racing on a quick back up. In the money when 3rd last time at Cranbourne and drawn nicely. Producing consistent results this preparation.
RSIS
On a short back up. Tidy run when 3rd last run at Cranbourne and will try to take advantage of the stall. Showing great form recently.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Offmidfield
Well beaten LS
Negative
Not competitive last run
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Up In Weight
Negative
Goes up 6.5kg weight here
AAP
Experienced campaigner. Never a threat after showing no early speed from the barriers at Caulfield. Looks up against it.
ILB
Mediocre display when 9th last run at Caulfield but facing less formidable opponents. Ben Allen rates highly aboard but hoping that the added weight won't hurt.
RSIS
Not up to scratch when 9th last time at Caulfield but competing at a lower level of competition. Ben Allen rates highly.
Career
18: 2-3-4
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
4: 1-0-1
Second-up
3: 0-1-0
Third-up
3: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Flemington
2: 0-0-1
Track Kilmore
1: 0-0-1
Track Morphettville
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2000m
2: 0-0-1
Distance 2520m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1312m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
12: 2-2-2
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-1
Going Soft
5: 0-1-1
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 13% POT in L100 Runners
Ideal Map
Positive
Map position exceeding market by 2%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
AAP
Jumped in distance when ran on okay without troubling at Seymour. This looks very achievable.
ILB
Started $4.20 and faded away late when 5th last time at Seymour. Commands respect.
RP
Came up a bit short, beaten 2l when second favourite, at Seymour 14 days ago upped to 1m2f; easy to oppose as this could be a hot race.
RSIS
Started at 10/3 and couldn't finish off when 5th last start at Seymour. Strong chance.
Career
26: 3-6-2
Rating · IRD
80
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-1-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Seymour
2: 0-0-1
Track St Arnaud
1: 0-0-0
Track Wangaratta
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2000m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1700m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1900m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
9: 2-3-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
14: 1-2-2
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 20% better than Career Avg.
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 253%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 36% POT in L100 Runners
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Better for last start
Positive
Improved with last few runs
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
In peak form and fitness. Got back and hit line with a full head of steam at Manangatang. Fit from racing, not out of this.
ILB
Close to a win last start at Manangatang but bit of extra work to do with more weight. Producing consistent results since returning from a break. Can't leave out of your calculations.
RP
Producing consistent form; a course winner; went down by a neck over 1m2f at Manangatang (handicap) two weeks ago.
RSIS
Right in the mix last time at Manangatang but has to carry more weight this time. In good racing form of late. Keep safe.
Career
43: 6-4-3
Rating · IRD
73
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
6: 1-2-0
Second-up
5: 0-0-1
Third-up
5: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
4: 0-0-0
Track Echuca
2: 0-1-0
Track Pakenham
1: 0-0-0
Track Hamilton
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1430m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
7: 0-1-1
Going Heavy
13: 5-1-0
Going Soft
17: 1-2-3
Going Good
13: 0-1-0
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 20% better than Career Avg.
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Just got there in a gripping finish at at Bairnsdale over this distance. First time around Sale. This will ask more.
ILB
Ran on hard when winning last start at Bairnsdale but stepping up to a higher level. Liana Wood provides some weight relief. Prefer a race with softer competition.
RP
Got home in front by a nose at Bairnsdale two weeks ago upped to this distance; despite that Bairnsdale success, looks opposable.
RSIS
Charged home to win last run at Bairnsdale but rising in class. The large claim from Liana Wood helps.
Career
40: 4-5-1
Rating · IRD
85
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
6: 0-0-0
Second-up
5: 0-1-0
Third-up
5: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
3: 0-0-0
Track Caulfield
2: 0-0-0
Track Moonee Valley
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2025m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2500m
2: 1-0-0
Going Heavy
8: 1-2-1
Going Soft
11: 1-0-0
Going Synthetic
5: 1-1-0
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 81%
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Winkers Off
Positive
Winkers coming off this start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Not disgraced at Cranbourne over longer assignment at $6.50. Hard fit, can play a role.
ILB
Was $6.50 and struggled with the pace when 8th last time at Cranbourne. Shows very good finishing speed. Should go close.
RP
Out of the frame (beaten 3½l in eighth) at Cranbourne a week ago upped to 1m5f; not hard to turn elsewhere as this looks a fair heat.
RSIS
Was 11/2 and didn't attack the line when 8th last start at Cranbourne. Should be swooping on the field late. Good chance at a nice price.
Career
20: 2-2-2
Rating · IRD
82
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
4: 0-0-0
Second-up
3: 1-0-1
Third-up
3: 1-1-0
Fourth-up
3: 0-1-0
Track Cranbourne
3: 0-0-1
Track Caulfield
1: 1-0-0
Track Sandown
7: 0-2-1
Distance 1600m
5: 0-0-2
Distance 1800m
3: 1-0-0
Distance 1400m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
13: 1-2-0
Going Soft
7: 1-0-2
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 8%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 27%
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 1
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Started $13 when safely held in Open company at Cranbourne. Best viewed as a rough place hope.
ILB
Started at $13.00 and didn't find the line when 8th last run at Cranbourne but competing in an easier class. Can save some energy from the gate. Watch betting.
RP
Could not manage better than eighth when close behind She's A Con (Cranbourne) over 1m2f (handicap) 16 days ago; stable has been going through a quiet spell; makes limited appeal given many of her rivals are in good form.
RSIS
At 12/1 weakened to finish 8th last run at Cranbourne but up against weaker rivals. Drawn beautifully. Has some claims.
Career
4: 1-1-0
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Third-up
1: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-0
Track Seymour
2: 0-1-0
Track Moe
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1347m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 2000m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 1-0-0
Going Soft
3: 0-1-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -21% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 9% POT in L100 Runners
Map Suits
Positive
Suitable Map, where runners in this position outperform market by 2%
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Blinkers Off
Positive
Blinkers coming off this start
AAP
Cleared maiden ranks at Moe 24 Sep. Patiently handled and only battled to wire at Seymour. Makes a strong case in this company.
ILB
Started $8.50 and finished 6th last run at Seymour. Interesting gear change of blinkers off first time. Will find this tough.
RP
Held when sixth beaten 10l over 1m2f at Seymour (handicap) 14 days ago; few miles on the clock with this his fifth race; running in a handicap for just the second time; unlikely to achieve more than just a supporting role.
RSIS
Started 15/2 and came in 6th last time at Seymour. Interesting gear change of blinkers off first time.
Career
12: 2-2-0
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
3: 1-1-0
Second-up
2: 0-1-0
Third-up
2: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Caulfield Heath
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Track Gold Coast
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
4: 0-1-0
Distance 1650m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1800m
1: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
7: 2-1-0
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 86%
Hot Trainer
Positive
Gavin Bedggood in good form, out performing market 82%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 57% POT in L100 Runners
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Increased Dist
Positive
Distance rise from last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Failed to threaten at Pakenham Synthetic when fancied. Back on turf. Look for an improved effort here.
ILB
Started at $3.00 and weakened to finish 9th last time at Pakenham Synthetic but stepping back up in distance.
RP
Not far behind Chocolate Royal when ninth over 1m at Pakenham (handicap) three weeks ago.
RSIS
Odds of 2/1 and couldn't maintain the pace when 9th last start at Pakenham Synthetic but returns to more ground.
Career
32: 3-6-3
Rating · IRD
77
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
4: 0-1-0
Second-up
3: 0-2-1
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-1-0
Track Pakenham
2: 0-0-0
Track Moonee Valley
2: 0-0-0
Track Bairnsdale
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2400m
5: 0-2-0
Distance 1406m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1717m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
20: 1-3-2
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
10: 2-2-1
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 51% in Last 100 Rides
Trainer SR
Negative
P & H Carey & Walker striking at just 3%
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are winning 30% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 60%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 62% Profit on Turnover
Hot Jockey
Positive
Nadia Daniels in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 66%
Up In Dist
Positive
Racing at a more suitable distance
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Long winning drought. Set tempo, given windburn by winner but boxed on at Pakenham Synthetic second-up. This looks a deeper race.
ILB
Peaked on the run when 2nd beaten by 3 1/2L last start at Pakenham Synthetic and going back up in trip. Watch the betting.
RP
Has winning form at this track; displayed a fair level of form when 3½l runner-up at Pakenham over 1m (handicap) three weeks ago.
RSIS
Put together a strong on-pace performance when 2nd last run at Pakenham Synthetic and returning to a rise in trip. Has the pace to overcome the wide stall. Betting is the best guide.
Career
19: 2-1-1
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham
1: 0-0-0
Track Sale
2: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
4: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
3: 0-1-0
Going Soft
7: 1-0-0
Going Synthetic
4: 0-0-1
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 51%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 18% POT in L100 Runners
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Backup
Positive
Racing again inside one week
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Weight Drop
Positive
Drops 5kg from LS run
AAP
Big weight took its toll at Bairnsdale over this journey. Strikes a harder race.
ILB
Backing up quickly for this race. Not up to scratch when 11th last run at Cranbourne.
RP
Finished 11th of 12 at Cranbourne over 1m2f (handicap) on Friday.
RSIS
On a quick turnaround. Fairly underwhelming when 11th last run at Cranbourne.