Shortest win price
Creusa (3)
2.65
Welcome to Wangaratta for the McGregor Machinery Mdn Plate over the 2000m test. It is an overcast day with the track rated a Soft6, and punters are sizing up a tricky maiden field. Looking at the early win market order, Creusa sits right at the top of calculations, followed closely by Just Basil, Spin Class, and Vidaloa rounding out the leading quartet in the betting.
Taking a closer look at the form lines for those shorter in the market, Creusa is prepared by Leigh Graham and will jump from barrier six with Tayla Childs in the saddle. This galloper is still chasing that elusive first win but arrives following honest placings, including a runner-up effort right here over the 2000m trip when stationed handy and trying hard behind a winner that was simply too good. Meanwhile, Just Basil is guided by Jake Duffy for trainer Michael Huglin from barrier two, bringing a previous effort at Echuca where the runner was restrained back and did not feature, though improvement is anticipated here.
Digging a bit deeper into the race dynamics, the speed map indicates we have All Too Swift and Startin'Sumthin' looking to push forward as leaders, while Creusa and Dejavast will settle right on the pace. For those looking at the roughies or tracking market clues further down, Vidaloa comes here on debut from barrier three for trainer Jarrod Robinson after a barrier trial at Tatura and a jump-out win at Bendigo, making it an interesting runner to watch as the yard has supporters on alert.
Shortest win price
Creusa (3)
2.65
Back left · leaders right
Offmidfield
Firststart
Backmarker
Midfield
Onpace
Leader
All Too Swift · Positive
Rider SR
Jockey recent POT is 24% better than Career Avg.
Just Basil · Negative
Trainer Career
Trainer Career S/R is 3%
Creusa · Negative
Rider
Negative rider change today
Dejavast · Positive
Early Splits
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Career
6: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
73
Speed map
Leader
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Bendigo
1: 0-0-0
Track Albury
1: 0-0-0
Track Kyneton
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1856m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2112m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
3: 0-0-0
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 24% better than Career Avg.
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 3%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 42%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Imprv Needed
Negative
Would need to lift here to feature
AAP
Little impact to date. Hard to make a case.
ILB
Was $151.00 and didn't threaten when 12th last time at Kyneton but will appreciate a good draw. Likely to be well placed early. Can't suggest backing.
RP
Finished towards the rear of 14 over 1m1f at Kyneton (maiden) four weeks ago.
RSIS
Started 150/1 and was well beaten when 12th last time at Kyneton but can save some energy from the draw. Has good tactical pace and will be nicely positioned.
Career
6: 0-1-0
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Echuca
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham
1: 0-0-0
Track Sale
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1717m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
4: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-1-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 3%
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 78%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 63%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Blinkers On
Positive
Trainer has opted for the Blinkers on, take note
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Ridden back and never a factor at Echuca. Look for improvement here.
ILB
Started $8.50 and came in 6th last start at Echuca. Should bounce back and has a good draw. Jake Duffy and Michael Huglin show promise as a combination. Will be fighting out the finish.
RP
Winless in six starts but has shown promise with second his top showing; out of the frame when sixth at Echuca last month upped to 1m2½f; unlikely to achieve more than just a supporting role.
RSIS
At 15/2 came in 6th last start at Echuca. Expecting improvement and gets a favourable draw. Jockey Jake Duffy and trainer Michael Huglin link up well. Should put in a decent effort.
Career
11: 0-2-3
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-1
Third-up
2: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Wangaratta
1: 0-1-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-1-0
Track Stony Creek
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1476m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
3: 0-0-1
Distance 1612m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
7: 0-1-3
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Improved L/S
Positive
Improved again last start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Still chasing the first win but can't knock recent placings. Stationed handy, tried hard but winner was simply too good this venue over this trip. Not out of it.
ILB
On a quick back up. Was strong late when 2nd last start around here and displaying improvement over the past few runs. Performing impressively since resuming from a spell. Gets a solid chance here.
RP
Finished runner-up when beaten just over 2l a week ago; has displayed improved form on last two starts but still winless and defeats stacking up (11 on the bounce); regularly been coming up a bit short lately so there are better alternatives here.
RSIS
Backing up quickly. Came on strongly to finish 2nd when beaten by 2 1/4L last time here and form has been improving over recent runs. Very capable of taking this out.
Career
17: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
80
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
5: 0-0-0
Second-up
3: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Seymour
4: 0-0-0
Track Kyneton
2: 0-0-0
Track Tatura
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2246m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2234m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
11: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
5: 0-0-0
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Awkward Draw
Negative
May find this draw awkward
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Had Chances
Negative
Still in maiden grade after several runs
AAP
Weakened out of it at Echuca after racing on pace. Can run into the money.
ILB
At $12.00 faded in the final stages when 4th last start at Echuca. Should be going forward early. Best to watch and see.
RP
No impression when fourth of 11 over 1m2½f at Echuca (maiden) last month with two of these rivals behind; still winless and defeats stacking up (17 on the bounce); makes limited appeal.
RSIS
Started 11/1 and was found wanting late when 4th last time at Echuca. Has shown early pace in races to date.
Career
4: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
88
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham
1: 0-0-0
Track Avoca
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham Synthetic
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1860m
1: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 31% better than Career Avg.
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 3%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 42%
Hot Jockey
Positive
Dylan Dunn in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 44%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 14%
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Made minor headway from back half at Avoca. First real test of stamina here. Looks more a place prospect.
ILB
Started $14.00 and made some ground when 5th last run at Avoca. Serious contender.
RP
Finished fifth but wasn't beaten too far (3½l) when close behind Creusa at Avoca upped to 1m1f last month; lightly raced (this just her fifth race); needs considering with so many of these having something to prove.
RSIS
At 13/1 inched into 5th last run at Avoca. Rates as one of the key chances.
Career
6: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
77
Speed map
Leader
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat
2: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
2: 0-0-0
Track Bendigo
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 2000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2648m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
4: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Stable In Form
Positive
Stable going well. Out performing market by 128%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Dist Drop
Negative
Distance decrease from last start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Every chance but compounded at Ballarat over longer assignment. Drops to shorter trip. Rough exotics hope.
ILB
Jumped at $91.00 and finished 6th last run at Ballarat and will be down in distance. Needs to improve.
RP
Held when sixth beaten 7l last month at Ballarat upped to 1m5f; should go close as recent form is thin on the ground in this contest.
RSIS
At 90/1 came in 6th last run at Ballarat and coming back in distance.
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Firststart
Jockey Booking
Negative
Melea Castle current POT is 51% below Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 79% in L100 rides
Watch Betting
Negative
If supported, follow in
Blinkers On
Positive
Trainer has opted for the Blinkers on, take note
AAP
Trials (1:0-0-0). Out of a winning mare. Won a 3 horse Bendigo jump-out 5/10. Market watch advised.
ILB
Tagaloa 4yo having first race start for Jarrod Robinson. Watch the market.
RP
Sole debutant in the line up; running in first race; clear chance as some good aspects to her profile.
RSIS
Debutant 4yo by Tagaloa for Jarrod Robinson.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Leader
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Blinkers On
Positive
Trainer has opted for the Blinkers on, take note
AAP
Issued decent challenge 3yo+ Mdn Plate at Warrnambool second-up. Should appreciate stepping up in distance. Favourite for a good reason.
ILB
Racing on a quick back up. Rattled home nicely into 2nd beaten by 1 1/4L last start at Flemington and challenged by less formidable competitors. Showing great form this preparation.
RSIS
On a short back up. Finished strongly when 2nd last run at Flemington and matched against less formidable competition. Putting up notable efforts recently.
Career
7: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
79
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Track Donald
1: 0-0-0
Track Stawell
1: 0-0-0
Track St Arnaud
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1284m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
5: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -28% POT in their L100 Races
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 25% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 14%
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Started $26 when safely held in Maiden company at St Arnaud for new trainer. First real test of stamina here. Others carry more punch.
ILB
Started at $26.00 and couldn't maintain the pace when 6th last start at St Arnaud. Expected to settle towards the tail. Can show up in this at odds.
RP
Sixth beaten 6l over 7½f at St Arnaud (maiden) last month on debut for this trainer.
RSIS
Was 25/1 and lost ground in the run home when 6th last run at St Arnaud. Gets back and needs luck.
Career
9: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
83
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-0-0
Track Bendigo
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
5: 0-0-0
Going Soft
3: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 6%
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 139%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 43%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 14%
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Limited
Negative
Yet to break through after 9 starts
AAP
Safely held but not totally disgraced at Echuca following market easing. Deep into her campaign, warrants attention.
ILB
Was $10.00 and came in 5th last run at Echuca.
RP
Finished fifth, beaten 9l, (Echuca) splitting Dejavast and Just Basil last month upped to 1m2½f.
RSIS
At 9/1 finished 5th last time at Echuca.