Ascot (WA) horses tips & previews

5 Nov, 1:52 pm AEDT

One race at a time: field, form guide and win/place odds for Ascot (WA), with capture times on every price.

Meeting — Tue 3 Nov, 11:00 am AEDT

Meetings · Tue, 3 NovAscot (WA)Change

Race 1 — Schweppes (Rs0ly) 1100m · jumps Tue 3 Nov, 2:25 pm AEDT

Race preview

Welcome to Ascot for a sharp 1100m sprint on a Soft5 track with a touch of showers in the air as we kick off the day at 2:25 pm AEDT. The win market lines up with Official Business leading the charge at the head of affairs, closely followed in the early betting order by Twilight Star, Fallen City, and Clobberconi. Punters looking for a yarn to unpack here will find a fascinating three-year-old restricted contest where early speed and track position could tell the tale.

The form behind our market leader suggests a serious player is ready to fire. Official Business jumps from barrier 1 for trainer N D Parnham, steering by Chris Parnham carrying 60kg at peak fitness on a quick back-up. This runner's recent form features a bold win at Ascot over 1200m followed by a battling minor placing at Belmont. Looking further down the order, Twilight Star starts from barrier 2 for stable D & B Pearce with Holly Nottle aboard, coming off a passable debut effort at Belmont following a sharp barrier trial win at Lark Hill, while Fallen City holds down barrier 3 for Simon Miller and Jefferson Tsang after finishing fifth at Belmont.

When mapping out the race shape, Twilight Star is marked as the leader from barrier 2, while Official Business and Supersmash will look to stalk from an offpace lane. Clobberconi, prepared by Luke Fernie with Holly Watson taking the reins from barrier 8, brings an interesting trial profile after a solid piece of work at Belmont and could make some noise. It shapes as a tricky puzzle for punters, but the inside draw and peak fitness of Official Business makes for a compelling form line to follow in the opener.

Race notes

3Y 0MWLY SC 54+ HCP,3YO 0MWLY,3yo,Rst 0 Met Win-LY
SOFT5
Showers
8 runners

Shortest win price

Official Business (1)

1.60

Speed map

Back left · leaders right

Firststart

3Clobberconi
4Dune Runner
7Meridian Conqueror

Backmarker

6Fallen City

Midfield

2Juniper

Onpace

1Official Business
5Supersmash

Leader

8Twilight Star

Official Business · Positive
Drawn In
Suited drawn down low
Juniper · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 9% in Last 100 Rides
Clobberconi · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 26% in Last 100 Rides
Dune Runner · Negative
Trainer SR
Stefan Vahala striking at just 8%

No.RunnerBarWgtLast 5WinPlace

1Official BusinessJ: Chris Parnham·T: N D Parnham160kg2 2 1 1 37: 2-2-1$1.60$1.02

Career

7: 2-2-1

Rating · IRD

100

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed20%
Rating100%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
2: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Third-up
1: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 1-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
3: 1-0-0
Track Belmont
2: 0-1-1
Track Northam
2: 1-1-0
Distance 1000m
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1100m
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1200m
3: 1-1-1
Going Good
6: 2-1-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-1-0

Last starts

3Belmont1200m28 Oct 2026 · 3Y 0MWLY SPEC COND HCP · GOOD43.8L
1Ascot1200m14 Oct 2026 · 3Y 0MWLY HCP · GOOD4-0.16
1Northam1100m23 Sept 2026 · 3Y SW MDN · GOOD4-0.26
2Belmont1200m9 Sept 2026 · 3UP SW MDN · GOOD40.1L
2Northam1000m27 Aug 2026 · 3UP SW MDN · HEAVY90.4L
1Belmont1000m17 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)0L
1Belmont400m3 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)-2.2
4Ascot1100m25 Apr 2026 · 2Y SWP · GOOD41.5L

Insights

Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Fitness
Positive
At peak fitness backing up
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Consistent
Positive
Showing up at the business end

Comments

AAP

In the minor spoils but still well held at Belmont Park. On pacer, perfect gate. Looks a serious player.

ILB

On a short back up. Tidy run when 3rd last run at Belmont and will be aiming for a soft run from the draw. Will take plenty of catching.

Generally consistent; not beaten that far in third (just under 4l) at Belmont Park over 6f (handicap) last Wednesday; looks likely to go well as has wins in his back catalogue.

RSIS

On a short turnaround. Ran well when 3rd last run at Belmont and gets a favourable draw. Has not missed the placings of late in 5 attempts. No surprise to see solid support in the betting.

2JuniperJ: Jason Lyon·T: J N Pateman658kg4 1 1 33: 2-0-1$16.00$2.70

Career

3: 2-0-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer20%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating60%
Closing Speed60%

Record

First-up
1: 1-0-0
Second-up
1: 1-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Belmont
2: 1-0-1
Track Northam
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1000m
2: 1-0-1
Distance 1200m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
2: 1-0-1
Going Heavy
1: 1-0-0

Last starts

3Belmont1000m21 Oct 2026 · 3Y 0MWLY SC 54+ HCP · GOOD33.21L
1Belmont1200m9 Sept 2026 · 3UP CL1 50+ HCP · GOOD4-0.2
1Northam1000m27 Aug 2026 · 3Y SW MDN · HEAVY9-2.8
4Lark Hill950m10 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(6)2.8L

Insights

Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 9% in Last 100 Rides
Trainer SR
Negative
Jason Pateman striking at just 2%
Jockey Booking
Positive
Jason Lyon 27% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 67%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 71% Profit on Turnover
Hot Jockey
Positive
Jason Lyon in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 27%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early

Comments

AAP

Kept grinding away for the minors at Belmont Park for new stable. Right in the mix again.

ILB

In the money when 3rd last start at Belmont and promising career start. Has run into the placings all attempts this preparation. Will attract plenty of interest.

Has made a pleasing start to her career with two wins from three starts; finished ahead of two of these rivals at Belmont Park over 5f (handicap) on first run for current trainer beaten just over 3l two weeks ago; difficult to oppose.

RSIS

Ran 3rd last run at Belmont and good career start. Has run into the money at every start in recent runs. Very tidy performer.

3ClobberconiJ: Holly Watson·T: Luke Fernie857.5kg5$13.00$2.40

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer20%
Jockey/Trainer Combo40%
Early Speed50%
Rating40%
Closing Speed50%

Last starts

5Belmont400m12 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)8L

Insights

Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 26% in Last 100 Rides
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 6%
Jockey Booking
Positive
Holly Watson 21% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -33% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 56%
Still Learning
Negative
No race experience

Comments

AAP

Trials (2:1-0-0). $30k purchase. Out of a half-sister to G3 winner Stormy Nova. Signalled was ready to go now with latest improved Belmont Park trial win.

ILB

Nicconi 3yo trained by Luke Fernie on debut. Watch early betting.

First time on the track; already gelded; represents a trainer with a strong record here with their newcomers; market could reveal prospects as he has his work cut out against experienced rivals.

RSIS

First race appearance 3yo by Nicconi for trainer Luke Fernie.

4Dune RunnerJ: Steven Parnham·T: S V Vahala557.5kg6 5 10 2$23.00$3.30

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed50%
Rating40%
Closing Speed50%

Last starts

2Belmont850m12 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)1.9L
10Belmont1000m8 June 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)7.8L
5Belmont1000m25 May 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)1.8L
6Ascot400m11 May 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)1.9L

Insights

Trainer SR
Negative
Stefan Vahala striking at just 8%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -33% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 25%
Watch Betting
Negative
If supported, follow in

Comments

AAP

Trials (5:0-1-0). $80k purchase. Out of a winning mare. Hasn't set the world alight in trials. Market may offer more insight.

ILB

Debutant 3yo by Pinatubo for Stefan Vahala. Respect the betting.

This son of Pinatubo makes debut under rules; in the mix as some good aspects to his profile.

RSIS

Debutant 3yo by Pinatubo for Stefan Vahala.

5SupersmashJ: Natika Riordan·T: N D Parnham757.5kg5 1 1 6 68: 2-0-0$12.00$2.30

Career

8: 2-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed20%
Rating40%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Ascot
3: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
3: 0-0-0
Track Belmont
3: 1-0-0
Distance 1000m
4: 1-0-0
Distance 1100m
3: 1-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
4: 1-0-0
Going Soft
4: 1-0-0

Last starts

6Ascot1000m17 Oct 2026 · 3UP 1MW SC 60+ HCP · GOOD42.59L
6Belmont1000m19 Sept 2026 · 3Y SW+P · SOFT53.06L
1Belmont1000m9 Sept 2026 · 3Y 0MWLY HCP · GOOD4-0.7
1Northam1100m3 Sept 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · SOFT5-2.14
5Northam1100m6 Aug 2026 · 3Y SW MDN · GOOD41.3L
13Belmont1200m18 July 2026 · 2Y SWP · SOFT78.5L
2Belmont1000m22 June 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)0.8L
2Belmont400m8 June 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)0.5L

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -38% POT in their L100 Races
Awkward Draw
Negative
Would have liked a better draw
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Weight Rise
Negative
Carrying 6.5kg more than LS

Comments

AAP

Kept finding the line without threatening this venue. Key contender with even breaks.

ILB

Started at $17.00 and lost ground in the run home when 6th last start at this track but challenged by weaker competitors. Large claim helps. Outside chance.

Solid effort when beaten 2½l to finish sixth over 5f here (handicap) two weeks ago; a likely player as is no stranger to the winners' enclosure.

RSIS

Started 16/1 and weakened under pressure when 6th last time at this track but going down in grade. The large claim from Natika Riordan helps.

6Fallen CityJ: Jefferson Tsang·T: Simon Miller355.5kg1 13 3 52: 0-0-0$10.00$2.10

Career

2: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed20%
Rating40%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Ascot
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Track Belmont
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0

Last starts

5Belmont1000m21 Oct 2026 · 3Y 0MWLY SC 54+ HCP · GOOD33.7L
3Belmont1000m3 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)0.8L
13Ascot1100m4 Apr 2026 · 2yo · GOOD48.9L
1Belmont1000m16 Mar 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)-0.2

Insights

Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 14%
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Battled home into 5th in the small field at Belmont Park at double-figure odds. Better for those runs under the belt and open to improvement.

ILB

Odds of $19.00 and made up ground when 5th last run at Belmont. Likely to get back. The large claim from Jefferson Tsang helps. Not ready for this level.

Lightly raced (running for just the third time); finished fifth but wasn't beaten too far (just under 4l) at Belmont Park over 5f (handicap) last month; this only her second handicap outing; probably unlikely to trouble the principals.

RSIS

Started at 18/1 and improved when 5th last time at Belmont. Likely to settle back in the field. Jefferson Tsang provides some weight relief.

7Meridian ConquerorJ: Victoria Corver·T: Ryan Hill455.5kg6 6 2$91.00$6.00

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer20%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed50%
Rating20%
Closing Speed50%

Last starts

2Lark Hill400m19 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)0.4L
6Belmont1000m2 Feb 2026 · Barrier Trial5.7L
6Lark Hill400m27 Jan 2026 · Barrier Trial14.7L

Insights

Jockey Booking
Negative
Victoria Corver current POT is 54% below Career Avg.
Trainer SR
Negative
Ryan Hill striking at just 6%
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -53% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 43%
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 63% in L100 rides
Watch Betting
Negative
If supported, follow in

Comments

AAP

Trials (4:0-1-0). $18k purchase. Dam won four races. Trials mixed with one fair Lark Hill placing and may require race exposure. Might be one to watch at this stage.

ILB

3yo debutant by Victor Ludorum for Ryan Hill. Watch the market moves.

First start under rules for this three-year-old; this one is best watched, unless market signals suggest otherwise with some of these having run before.

RSIS

3yo by Victor Ludorum first starter for Ryan Hill.

8Twilight StarJ: Holly Nottle·T: D & B Pearce255.5kg5 2 2 1 41: 0-0-0$4.60$1.32

Career

1: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo60%
Early Speed100%
Rating40%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Belmont
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

4Belmont1000m21 Oct 2026 · 3Y 0MWLY SC 54+ HCP · GOOD33.38L
1Lark Hill930m5 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)-2.3
2Lark Hill950m21 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)2.5L
2Lark Hill1050m2 June 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(6)1.3L
5Lark Hill930m18 May 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)3.2L

Insights

Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -21% POT in their L100 Races
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 2
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Passable debut effort when battled home at Belmont Park. Took valuable lessons. Warrants attention.

ILB

At $8.00 finished 4th last run at Belmont but having second career run. Displays good tactical speed. Gets a favourable draw. Take on trust.

Not beaten far on her debut at Belmont Park at 7-1 last month; unexposed in handicaps with this her second start in this company; hard to see her getting off the mark second time up.

RSIS

Started 7/1 and came in 4th last run at Belmont but having second career run. Displays good tactical pace. Has a good draw.

Odds correct as at Tue 3 Nov, 2:30 pm AEDT. Odds can change.

Past meetings

Sat 31 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 10 races
Sat 24 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 10 races
Sat 17 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 10 races
Wed 14 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 7 races
Sat 10 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 10 races