Shortest win price
Firearm (8)
3.80
Welcome to Ascot for the Hunter Manning Recruitment Hcp (C3) over the 1200m journey, set down for decision on a Soft5 track with showers about. Looking at how the win market has shaped up for this Class 3 affair, the early punters have zeroed in on The Nun holding down the top spot in the betting order. Right behind in the market order come Firearm, Hasani, and Wiluna Lass, setting up a fascinating puzzle for us on course.
The form lines behind those shorter prices tell an interesting yarn. Hasani kicks off a fresh campaign here from barrier 9 for Aaron Mitchell, with Clint Johnston-Porter in the saddle off a 30-week break and an encouraging trial under the belt, previously racing with Summer Dickson. Meanwhile, Wiluna Lass arrives via Josh Brown's yard from barrier 2, having stuck to her guns well to fill the minors at Northam after a gritty win at Kalgoorlie over this 1200m trip, marking her out as a natural leader who should give plenty of cheek.
Digging a little deeper into the pack, we can see how the early speed map is likely to unfold with Catch Carter, Spanish Armada, Wiluna Lass, and Roaming America all listed in the leader speed group, meaning there could be plenty of early pressure up front on this circuit. For punters hunting value further down the win market order, runners like The Nun bring handy course form to the table with a win and minor placings from three prior attempts at Ascot, alongside a stable currently operating in great form.
Shortest win price
Firearm (8)
3.80
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Offmidfield
Midfield
Offpace
Leader
Hasani · Positive
Hot J/T Combo
Combo are out performing market expectations by 164%
Catch Carter · Negative
Trainer Recent
Camp struggling with S/R just 9%
Spanish Armada · Positive
Hot J/T Combo
Combo are out performing market expectations by 44%
Wiluna Lass · Negative
Current SR
Rider’s recent POT is returning 37% lower than Career Avg.
Career
8: 2-0-1
Rating · IRD
92
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 1-0-0
Third-up
1: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Belmont
4: 2-0-1
Track Ascot
4: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
4: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1600m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
3: 0-0-1
Going Good
5: 0-0-1
Going Heavy
1: 1-0-0
Going Soft
2: 1-0-0
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 164%
Ideal Map
Positive
Map position exceeding market by 3%
Form At Track
Negative
Yet to win here
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Resuming (30-weeks). Ex Summer Dickson. Trained here now. Trial was encouraging. Keeping safe at first run for new stable off the lengthy break.
ILB
Racing fresh after a break of 30 weeks. Started $10.00 and tailed off when 6th last time at this venue but competing at a lower level of competition. Watch betting.
RP
Useful in this grade; not beaten that far in sixth (4l) here over 7f (handicap) in April; first start for new trainer; has had some time off; warrants respect as has wins in his back catalogue.
RSIS
Resuming after a break of 30 weeks. Odds of 9/1 and struggled when 6th last run at this venue but facing a weaker group of contenders. Betting is the best guide.
Career
24: 2-3-4
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Leader
First-up
4: 0-1-1
Second-up
3: 0-0-1
Third-up
3: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
3: 1-0-0
Track Bunbury
3: 0-0-0
Track Pinjarra Scarpside
1: 0-0-0
Track Belmont
8: 1-2-1
Distance 1000m
8: 1-2-1
Distance 1113m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1200m
11: 1-0-3
Going Good
16: 2-3-2
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
7: 0-0-2
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 9%
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 31%
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 39% in L100 rides
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Form At Track
Negative
Yet to win here
Ready To Fire
Positive
Shown something in last few runs
AAP
Sent forward, outgunned late but boxed on at Geraldton. Pace influence. Fits well against this opposition.
ILB
Came in 2nd last start at Geraldton and demonstrating upward trajectory in recent races. Won't be far away during the run. Definite winning chance.
RP
Favourite when runner-up over 5½f at Geraldton (handicap) 12 days ago; been struggling to get his head in front recently so has questions to answer.
RSIS
Claimed a spot in the top three when 2nd last time at Geraldton and showing improvement in recent outings. Should jump out and bowl along. Good prospects.
Career
8: 2-1-1
Rating · IRD
90
Speed map
Leader
First-up
2: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Pinjarra
2: 0-0-0
Track York
1: 1-0-0
Track Ascot
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 1-0-1
Distance 1300m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1400m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
6: 2-1-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 44%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Ran home nicely to win after settling handy at York over this distance. Can show up again at fair odds.
ILB
Picked up late to win last run at York and on an upward trajectory in recent races. Has shown early pace in races to date. Showing great form this campaign. Betting is the best guide.
RP
Narrow winner of a handicap at York last month; shortlisted.
RSIS
Ran on strongly to win last time at York and form has been improving over recent runs. Should muster plenty of early pace. Watch for a sign in the market.
Career
11: 3-3-1
Rating · IRD
99
Speed map
Leader
First-up
3: 1-1-0
Second-up
2: 1-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-1-0
Track CurrentTrack
4: 1-0-0
Track Albany
1: 0-1-0
Track Bunbury
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1000m
10: 2-3-1
Distance 1200m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
8: 3-2-1
Going Soft
3: 0-1-0
Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 37% lower than Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 258%
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 13%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
In Form
Positive
Racing in top form recently
AAP
Stuck to her guns to fill the minors when in the market at Northam. Natural leader.
ILB
Big effort to place 2nd last run at Northam and gets a favourable draw. Jockey Natika Riordan and trainer Josh Brown are a pair that can't be ignored. Good prospects.
RP
Missed out by half a length over 5f at Northam (handicap) 19 days ago; has won at this track; holds major claims.
RSIS
Worked hard to place 2nd last run at Northam and has a good draw. Natika Riordan and Josh Brown are a strong team. Should come to hand quickly. Good potential.
Career
8: 2-0-1
Rating · IRD
78
Speed map
Leader
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 1-0-0
Third-up
2: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Northam
1: 0-0-0
Track Pinjarra
1: 1-0-0
Track Ascot
2: 1-0-1
Distance 1000m
3: 1-0-0
Distance 1200m
3: 1-0-1
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
5: 2-0-1
Going Soft
3: 0-0-0
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Form At Track
Positive
1 time winner here at Ascot
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Sent to lead, made a rapid retreat back through the field at Belmont Park. Can make his presence felt fresh in this line-up if things pan out.
ILB
Fresh from a spell. Was $8.50 and looked outclassed when 9th last start at Belmont but back in an easier grade. Can't suggest backing.
RP
Last of nine at Belmont Park over 7f (handicap) two months ago; a previous winner here; has proven competitive in a race of this nature; it wouldn't be a surprise to see him return to the winners' enclosure and by no means ruled out.
RSIS
Back from break. Started 15/2 and gave away some ground when 9th last time at Belmont but taking on a lower class of opponents.
Career
14: 2-0-2
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Belmont
5: 0-0-1
Track Pinjarra
4: 1-0-1
Track Ascot
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
4: 1-0-0
Distance 1230m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
11: 1-0-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-1
Going Soft
2: 1-0-0
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 7%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -20% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 30%
Improved L/S
Positive
Improved again last start
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Resuming (18-weeks). This looks challenging.
ILB
First up and ran on hard when winning first up last preparation at Albany. Likely to get back. Needs to improve.
RP
Not beaten too far when sixth of nine over 7f at Pinjarra (handicap) in June; slumped a bit since winning a handicap at Pinjarra in April; returns from a layoff here; this looks a decent race so easy to oppose.
RSIS
Resuming and finished well when winning resuming last preparation at Albany. Does take a while to get into stride.
Career
9: 1-3-1
Rating · IRD
96
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
2: 1-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Ascot
3: 1-1-1
Track CurrentTrack
3: 1-1-1
Track Belmont
3: 0-1-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1200m
4: 0-1-1
Distance 1400m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
7: 1-3-1
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 40%
Stable In Form
Positive
Stable going well. Out performing market by 47%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 29% POT in L100 Runners
Tricky Map
Negative
Runners with this map, underperform market by 8%
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Back in Dist
Negative
Dropping back to a less suitable distance range
AAP
Reasonable effort without seriously threatening at Belmont Park. Since trialled at Belmont Park 26 Oct. Warrants attention.
ILB
Let up. Was $10.00 and moved through the field into 5th last time at Belmont and can save some energy from the draw. Down in distance. Can win.
RP
Has won at this course; patchy form recently; far from disgraced (beaten 3l) over 1m½f at Belmont Park (handicap) two months ago; this line-up contains some strong opposition so only limited appeal.
RSIS
Freshened for this. Started 9/1 and chased well when 5th last start at Belmont and gets the perfect stall. Back to a shorter trip. Goes well and could be a value opportunity.
Career
9: 1-1-2
Rating · IRD
85
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
3: 0-1-1
Second-up
2: 1-0-1
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Belmont
1: 0-0-0
Track Northam
2: 1-1-0
Track Ascot
6: 0-0-2
Distance 1000m
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1100m
4: 1-1-1
Distance 1200m
3: 0-0-0
Going Good
9: 1-1-2
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -22% POT in their L100 Races
Form At Track
Negative
Yet to win here
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Got back and wasn't totally disgraced this course over this journey. Hard to make a case beyond the minors.
ILB
Was $61.00 and came in 9th last start at the track but has been racing in stronger company. Prefers to settle towards the tail. Not without a chance.
RP
Not disgraced in ninth last month in a Listed race; dropping in class but others more likely.
RSIS
Odds of 60/1 and came in 9th last time here but competing in a lower grade. Likely to get back in the run.
Career
30: 3-1-3
Rating · IRD
84
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
7: 1-0-1
Second-up
6: 0-0-0
Third-up
4: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
3: 0-1-1
Track Pinjarra
5: 1-0-1
Track Geraldton
2: 0-0-1
Track Ascot
9: 1-1-0
Distance 1500m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
5: 0-1-0
Distance 1705m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
24: 3-1-3
Going Soft
6: 0-0-0
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 9% in Last 100 Rides
Trainer SR
Negative
Phillip McLeod striking at just 2%
Jockey Booking
Positive
Jason Lyon 27% above market expected in L100 Rides
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 75%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 73% Profit on Turnover
Hot Jockey
Positive
Jason Lyon in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 27%
Tricky Map
Negative
Runners with this map, underperform market by 8%
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
AAP
Not disgraced this venue second-up at $101. Lacks appeal here.
ILB
Started at $101.00 and ran on into 4th last start at this track. Might be ridden for luck. Very difficult to back.
RP
Not beaten that far in fourth (just over 3l) last month; a winner over C&D; subpar since successful in a handicap at Ascot in April; is passed over with this looking like a hot contest.
RSIS
Started at 100/1 and improved late to finish 4th last start at this track. Will be giving the leaders a big start.
Career
23: 3-0-4
Rating · IRD
76
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
4: 0-0-1
Second-up
3: 1-0-0
Third-up
3: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
11: 2-0-3
Track Belmont
7: 1-0-0
Track Northam
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1000m
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
11: 2-0-2
Going Good
17: 3-0-4
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
5: 0-0-0
Map Suits
Positive
Suitable Map, where runners in this position outperform market by 3%
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Win Drought
Negative
Not won for a while
AAP
First-up (24-weeks). Showed plenty in a recent trial, although this long-awaited return may leave some improvement. This will test.
ILB
Back from a break. Started $16.00 and lacked competitiveness when 6th last start at Belmont. Can't have.
RP
Fair effort when beaten just under 5l, finishing sixth of eight at Belmont Park in May; has winning form at this track; form is hit and miss; back from an absence here; easy to oppose with a few rivals in good form.
RSIS
Back from a break. At 15/1 lacked competitiveness when 6th last start at Belmont.