Shortest win price
Mystic Smile (11)
2.50
Ascot's Bisley Workwear Maiden over 1200 metres on SOFT5 going presents a competitive line-up of maidens and three-year-olds chasing first wins or early black type. The showers keep the track genuine, and punters are leaning shortest to Mystic Smile, with Morikawa and Brave Move next in the market order. This is a race where early placement and sectional speed matter plenty, with a spread of on-pace runners across the barriers likely to chase position from the jump.
Mystic Smile has been honest first-up without troubling the winner at Belmont Park, trialling reasonably beforehand. Brad Parnham takes the ride on the Tammy Andrews runner, and the form line suggests sharper for that outing, though maiden winning strike rates favour proven on the scoreboard over horses still searching. Morikawa led from pillar to near the post in the 3UP Maiden at Northam last time, showing genuine racing sense; Lisa Staples partners the P H Jordan gelding, and that yard is currently striking at 36 per cent across the latest hundred runners, which is a solid pointer. Brave Move is fronting up for a second campaign after twenty weeks out. Chris Parnham's mount did the heavy lifting fresh at Belmont on debut, running thirds and showing sectionals suggest he goes hard early and ran on well last start—a profile worth respecting in a field where many are still learning the job.
Buster's Babe rates a genuine place chance despite slight trainer strike-rate concerns; just beaten at Northam off an extended spell and better conditioned now. The speedGroups show a stack of on-pace runners—Badger Bob, Brave Move, Air Terjun, Off The Richter, and Divine Mirage all mapped to lead or sit close—which may compress the tempo and suit something rolling from midfield or a patient finisher. Passionenuff brings the fastest overall finishing sectionals from last start and sports a hot jockey–trainer combo with Shaun McGruddy and Rebecca Bayliss outperforming market expectations by 58 per cent, a story worth monitoring as a roughie angle in a race where the favourite pool is genuinely split.
Shortest win price
Mystic Smile (11)
2.50
Back left · leaders right
Firststart
Backmarker
Offmidfield
Midfield
Offpace
Onpace
Leader
Rocking In Vegas · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are under performing market expectations by -27%
Badger Bob · Positive
Drawn In
Suited drawn down low
Brave Move · Positive
Fast Early
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Morikawa · Positive
Hot J/T Combo
Combo are out performing market expectations by 44%
Career
22: 0-4-6
Rating · IRD
87
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
3: 0-1-1
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-1-1
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-1
Track Belmont
6: 0-0-3
Track Northam
1: 0-0-0
Track Pinjarra
7: 0-3-1
Distance 1400m
8: 0-2-1
Distance 1600m
3: 0-1-0
Distance 1700m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
18: 0-3-4
Going Heavy
1: 0-1-0
Going Soft
3: 0-0-2
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are under performing market expectations by -27%
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
AAP
Well back and made some minor headway but passing mainly tired rivals at Belmont Park. Coming back in distance.
ILB
At $8.50 ran 6th last time at Belmont. Has run into the money regularly this preparation. Will be giving the leaders a big start. Respect the betting.
RP
Yet to open his account after 22 starts and form has been up and down of late; not disgraced when sixth at Belmont Park over 7f (maiden) last month; tends to find at least one too good; makes little appeal.
RSIS
Started 15/2 and finished 6th last run at Belmont. Looking sharp on the track since returning from a break. Likely to get back in the run. Watch betting.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Offpace
Long Break
Negative
Resumes from a 310 day break (> 300 days)
AAP
Returns for second campaign (44-weeks). Gave a sight on debut at Bunbury when supported 28 Dec. Better for race exposure. Given time to develop.
ILB
Resuming after a break of 44 weeks. Zipped home into 2nd beaten by 1 1/4L last start at Bunbury and fitter for debut run.
RP
Beaten into second when favourite on his debut over 5½f at Bunbury at 13-5 last December; returns from a layoff; couldn't rule out improvement although wouldn't get too carried away.
RSIS
First run back from a break of 44 weeks. Good run when placing 2nd beaten by 1 1/4L last start at Bunbury and having second race start.
Career
3: 0-0-1
Rating · IRD
96
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Northam
3: 0-0-1
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
2: 0-0-1
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-1
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Back for second campaign (14-weeks). Went close in Maiden company at Northam first-up last campaign. Shapes as a rough place prospect fresh in this line-up.
ILB
First up. Started $8.50 and finished 6th last time at Northam. Has the talent to rebound quickly and gets a favourable gate. Has shown early pace in races to date. Has strong claims.
RP
Three-race maiden though does have a third place to his name; out of the frame (beaten just under 4l in sixth) over 6½f at Northam (maiden) in July; he can be taken on.
RSIS
First run back from a break. Started 15/2 and came in 6th last start at Northam. Should improve and gets a favourable stall. Will be positive in the run early. Expecting a solid performance.
Career
3: 0-1-1
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
1: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Belmont
3: 0-1-1
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-1-1
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Lightly Raced
Positive
Limited race experience but shown potential
Better for last start
Positive
Improved with last few runs
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Fronting up for second campaign (20-weeks). In the minors at Belmont Park on debut last campaign while trialling well in the lead-up. Expecting a prominent showing fresh in this line-up.
ILB
First run back from a break. Put in a competitive run when placing 3rd last start at Belmont and taking on easier opposition. Expecting to settle positively. Promising career start. Very capable of taking this out.
RP
Three-race maiden though does have a second place to his name; was on the premises (third, beaten just over 2l) in a conditions race at Belmont Park in June upped to 7f; returns from a break here.
RSIS
Resuming after a break. Picked up late ground when 3rd last run at Belmont and drops back to a suitable class. Won't be far away during the run. Should go close.
Career
6: 0-1-0
Rating · IRD
85
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-1-0
Track Ascot
4: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
4: 0-0-0
Track Belmont
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1000m
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
5: 0-1-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 44%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 36% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 14%
Track Stats
Negative
Tends to struggle at this track
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Led from pillar to near the post in the 3yo+ Mdn at Northam. This looks a nice race for the gelding.
ILB
Ran out of steam towards the end when 2nd last run at Northam. Will need to lift.
RP
Has shown some recent improvement; favourite and only narrowly beaten last month at Northam upped to 6½f; been struggling to get his head in front recently so others have more pressing claims.
RSIS
Even though fading at the finish still grabbed 2nd last time at Northam.
Career
3: 0-1-1
Rating · IRD
90
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
2: 0-1-1
Track Belmont
1: 0-0-0
Track Northam
1: 0-1-0
Track Bunbury
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
3: 0-1-1
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 8%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 29%
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Lightly Raced
Positive
Limited race experience but shown potential
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Just beaten in the 3yo+ Mdn at Northam off extended spell. Better conditioned. Looks more a place prospect.
ILB
Was agonizingly close last time at Northam and good career start. Solid chance.
RP
Career is progressing; second favourite and only narrowly beaten over 5½f at Northam (maiden) last month; has claims.
RSIS
Just missed last time at Northam and showing consistent performance in races. One of the punters top hopes at a very generous price.
Career
6: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
77
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Belmont
3: 0-0-0
Track Pinjarra
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
5: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
5: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
First-up (28-weeks). Shown enough on occasions without looking dangerous. Failed to excite in early runs while having an easy trial in readiness. Not fancied.
ILB
First run back from a 28 week break. Started $26.00 and came in 6th last run at Pinjarra. Likely to settle back in the field. Can't possibly entertain.
RP
Creditable effort in sixth (beaten 2½l, Pinjarra) in April; yet to finish better than fourth in her six races; returns from a layoff; a lot on her plate here and may have to settle for supporting role at best.
RSIS
Fresh from a break of 28 weeks. Was 25/1 and came in 6th last start at Pinjarra. Will be giving the leaders a big start. Large claim helps.
Career
2: 0-0-1
Rating · IRD
82
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
2: 0-0-1
Track Bunbury
1: 0-0-1
Track Albany
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1230m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-1
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 58%
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
No threat to winner but ran on for the minors at Bunbury at second outing. Strikes a harder race.
ILB
Caught the eye when 3rd beaten by almost 2 1/2L last time at Bunbury. Prefer a race with softer competition.
RP
Turned in a solid effort in defeat last month, when third at Bunbury.
RSIS
Showed a good turn of foot when 3rd beaten by nearly 2 1/2L last start at Bunbury.
Career
3: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
77
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Belmont
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
3: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Returns for second campaign (19-weeks). Trial was encouraging. Yet, hard to see winning in this line-up.
ILB
Resuming after a spell. Started at $41.00 and faded to finish 6th last start at Belmont but drops back to a suitable class. Won't be far away during the run. Will be a tough ask.
RP
This now her fourth attempt to get off the mark; missed the frame (beaten 11l into sixth) over 5f at Belmont Park (handicap) five months ago; layoff to overcome; others more likely.
RSIS
Back after a break. Started 40/1 and weakened under pressure when 6th last run at Belmont but taking on easier opposition. Has plenty of early pace.
Career
1: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
77
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Pinjarra
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 26% in Last 100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 40%
Stable In Form
Positive
Stable going well. Out performing market by 85%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 60% POT in L100 Runners
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Fronting up for second campaign (29-weeks). Offered little to catch the eye on debut at Pinjarra 8 Apr. Looked forward enough in latest trial. Others with stronger claims.
ILB
Back from a 29 week break. At $11.00 didn't find the line when 5th last run at Pinjarra but having second career run. Likely to be well placed early. Entitled to be a big price.
RP
Not beaten far on his debut (at Pinjarra over this trip) showing greenness at 10-1 in April; the trainer has enjoyed plenty of winners of late; returns from a break here; might be better for the experience although not hard to turn elsewhere.
RSIS
Racing fresh after a break of 29 weeks. Started 10/1 and couldn't stay in touch when 5th last run at Pinjarra but fitter for debut run.
Career
5: 0-1-1
Rating · IRD
94
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
3: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Belmont
3: 0-1-1
Track Ascot
2: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
3: 0-1-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
4: 0-1-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-1
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Honest performance without menacing winner at Belmont Park first run back. Better for the outing. Should find this a bit easier.
ILB
Finished strongly when 2nd last start at Belmont and will appreciate the drop in class. Getting better in recent performances. Good chance and definitely has claims.
RP
Signs of improvement on last two runs and career moving upwards; not beaten far when runner-up two weeks ago (Belmont Park, dropped to 5f) in a handicap; if she can build on her latest effort then is respected.
RSIS
Produced an eye catching run when 2nd beaten by 2L last time at Belmont and goes down in class. Showing improvement in recent outings. Very capable of taking this out.
Career
6: 0-0-2
Rating · IRD
90
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Northam
2: 0-0-1
Track Ascot
2: 0-0-1
Track CurrentTrack
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1000m
2: 0-0-1
Going Good
5: 0-0-2
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -36% POT in their L100 Races
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Ready To Strike
Positive
Can be rewarded for recent consistent form
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Courageous effort in the 3yo Mdn at Northam. Only for exotics.
ILB
Flashed home late into 3rd beaten by 1 1/4L last run at Northam. Should come to hand quickly. Could be in the mix.
RP
Has shown some recent improvement; not beaten far when third at 16-1 over 6½f at Northam (maiden) last month.
RSIS
Came on strongly when 3rd last time at Northam. Expecting to settle positively. Can't leave out of your calculations.
Career
7: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
73
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
2: 0-0-0
Track Belmont
3: 0-0-0
Track Pinjarra
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
5: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0
Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 52% lower than Career Avg.
Trainer SR
Negative
Ted Martinovich striking at just 2%
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 42%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 74%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 80% Profit on Turnover
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 71% in L100 rides
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 14%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
AAP
Has battled to date. Others with greater appeal.
ILB
Odds of $151.00 and looked outclassed when 15th last time at Belmont but can save some energy from the draw. Might be ridden for luck. Pass at this stage.
RP
Towards the rear of 16 at Belmont Park 13 days ago; best she's managed so far is fourth from seven career starts; meeting some horses in good form and is passed over.
RSIS
Started at 150/1 and didn't threaten when 15th last run at Belmont but will appreciate a good stall. Gets back and needs luck.
Career
2: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
85
Speed map
Leader
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Belmont
1: 0-0-0
Track Northam
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 6%
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -77% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 56%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
AAP
Ran an honest race and not beaten far at Belmont Park at second start. Tougher alley. Sharper now, goes into wider exotics.
ILB
At $13.00 peaked on the run when 4th last start at Belmont. Should be rolling forward early from the wide draw. Big improvement required to threaten these.
RP
Finished fourth last month albeit only beaten 2½l at Belmont Park; also engaged in race 8 at Ascot.
RSIS
Odds of 12/1 and got tired late when 4th last run at Belmont. Has the pace to overcome the wide stall.
Career
1: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
75
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Northam
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 40%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 29% POT in L100 Runners
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Gave a sight on debut at Northam as an outsider 25 Oct. Has an adverse draw. Solid introduction but this asks a bit more.
ILB
Started $61.00 and passed some rivals in the late stages when 5th last run at Northam and having second race start. Better to look elsewhere.
RP
Finished fifth on her debut, albeit only beaten just under 2l at Northam at 66-1 last month; if stepping up from first effort is of interest.
RSIS
At 60/1 made up ground when 5th last time at Northam and was on debut last time.
Rating · IRD
78
Speed map
Firststart
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 9% in Last 100 Rides
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 2%
Key Rider
Positive
Jason Lyon 27% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 67%
Key Jockey
Positive
Jason Lyon winning at 7% POT in last 100 rides
Still Learning
Negative
No race experience
AAP
Trials (2:1-0-0). $110k purchase. Out of a winning mare. Signalled was ready to go now with latest improved Lark Hill trial win.
ILB
Acrobat 3yo having first start for Jason Pateman. Watch the market moves.
RP
First competitive racecourse experience; the only newcomer in the field; can have a big say with signs of encouragement in profile.
RSIS
Racing as a debutant 3yo by Acrobat for trainer Jason Pateman.
Career
10: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Belmont
2: 0-0-0
Track Northam
4: 0-0-0
Track Pinjarra
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
6: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
3: 0-0-0
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 3%
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 45%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Limited
Negative
Hasn’t featured at all in all career runs
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Not Trustworthy
Negative
May be competing at this level for some time
Imprv Needed
Negative
Would need to lift here to feature
AAP
Competitive at times without ever really troubling. Started $151 when safely held in Maiden company at Northam. First time around Ascot.
ILB
Jumped at $151.00 and couldn't maintain the pace when 10th last run at Northam. Yet to trouble the judge in all runs. Large claim helps. Best to watch and see.
RP
Towards the rear of 13 at Northam over 6½f (maiden) last month.
RSIS
Started 150/1 and was well beaten when 10th last run at Northam. Hasn't fired a shot in 10 starts. The large claim from Natika Riordan should help.