Shortest win price
Diamond Eye (5)
3.80
Welcome to Ballarat on a Soft 7 track with showers falling for the afternoon program. Race 5 is the Hertz (Bm62) over the 1600m mile journey, scheduled for 3:30 pm AEDT. Looking at the early win market order, punters have zeroed in on Savannah Chill sitting right at the head of affairs, followed closely by Diamond Eye and Lady Thinkabell, with Royal Emblem, Into You, Iron Legacy, Torn, and Cliste rounding out the remainder of the field in that order.
The story at the top of the market revolves around the form line of Savannah Chill for trainers Ben, Will & Jd Hayes, who will jump from barrier 2 with Nadia Daniels steering. This galloper comes in holding strong form, having worn them down late to score over this exact 1600m distance at Cranbourne before another tough win at Moe. Diamond Eye sits next in the betting order from barrier 5 for Reece Goodwin, looking to bounce back after finding the going too tough in a stronger contest at Sale following a gritty Seymour restricted win. Lady Thinkabell for stable J G Symons & S Laxon drops back from tougher assignments at Morphettville and returns fresh from a spell, bringing some handy distance credentials into the yarn.
From a tactical perspective, the speed maps indicate Savannah Chill and Diamond Eye will look to press forward and dictate terms right from the outset as leaders, while Into You and Lady Thinkabell park close on the pace. Further down the order, runners like Royal Emblem and Iron Legacy will look to weave from the backmarkers, and Torn brings some sharp finishing sectionals from off the midfield if the leaders overdo it in the soft conditions. It is shaping up as a fascinating tactical battle over the mile where early speed and track position will tell the tale for punters looking for a winner.
Shortest win price
Diamond Eye (5)
3.80
Most career wins
Savannah Chill and Torn
4 each
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Offmidfield
Midfield
Onpace
Leader
Savannah Chill · Positive
Rider SR
Jockey recent POT is 50% better than Career Avg.
Royal Emblem · Positive
Fast Early
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Diamond Eye · Negative
Trainer SR
Reece Goodwin striking at just 8%
Iron Legacy · Positive
Rider SR
Jockey recent POT is 27% better than Career Avg.
Career
13: 4-1-1
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Leader
First-up
3: 1-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Sandown
2: 1-0-0
Track Moe
2: 1-1-0
Track Pakenham Synthetic
3: 1-0-1
Distance 1400m
6: 1-0-1
Distance 1600m
2: 2-0-0
Distance 1614m
1: 0-1-0
Going Heavy
3: 0-1-0
Going Soft
3: 1-0-0
Going Synthetic
3: 1-0-1
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 50% better than Career Avg.
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 172%
Hot Trainer
Positive
Ben, Will & Jd Hayes in good form, out performing market 49%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 37% POT in L100 Runners
Key Jockey
Positive
Nadia Daniels winning at 46% POT in last 100 rides
Consecutive Wins
Positive
Has strung together a few races in a row
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 2
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Holding form. Wore them down late at Cranbourne over this distance. Looks extremely hard to beat again.
ILB
Reeled them in to win last start at Cranbourne and drawn nicely. Unbeaten last 2 runs. Will be pushing for a forward position early. Suited against these.
RP
Scored by a slim margin in a handicap at Cranbourne three weeks ago; bidding for a hat-trick and career record shows her ability to win (wins-runs record of 4-13); difficult to oppose.
RSIS
Ran on strongly to win last start at Cranbourne and will try to take advantage of the stall. Made it 2 wins on the bounce. Will show up at the business end.
Career
4: 1-0-0
Rating · IRD
80
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Warrnambool
1: 0-0-0
Track Chelmsford
1: 0-0-0
Track Windsor
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1609m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2011m
1: 1-0-0
Going Soft
2: 1-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Well beaten LS
Negative
Not competitive last run
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Resuming (22-weeks). Steps out for third Aust start. Could get into the placings fresh in this affair.
ILB
Back from a break. Started at $7.00 and weakened to finish 9th last time at Sandown but dropping in class. Has a nice turn of foot. Coming back in trip. Could feature here.
RP
Held when ninth beaten 12l over 1m2½f at Sandown (handicap) five months ago; impressive strike-rate overseas, scoring once in two runs; makes limited appeal.
RSIS
Back after break. Started 6/1 and gave away some ground when 9th last start at Sandown but matched against lesser competition. Possesses very good closing pace. Dropping in distance. Could feature here.
Rating · IRD
20
AAP
Solid performance in defeat in the 3yo+ (Bm62) at Kyneton. Awkwardly drawn but has enough speed. Wet tracks certainly don't pose a problem. A few runs under his belt this campaign, warrants attention.
ILB
Finished 3rd last start at Kyneton. Performing impressively this campaign.
RSIS
In the money when 3rd last run at Kyneton. In top form recently.
Rating · IRD
20
AAP
Third outing for new trainer/ this region. Winless since 26 Dec 2024. Not disgraced at Kyneton at $41. Keener on others.
ILB
Below par when 7th last start at Kyneton.
RSIS
Below par when 7th last time at Kyneton.
Career
7: 2-1-1
Rating · IRD
86
Speed map
Leader
First-up
2: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Pakenham
1: 0-0-0
Track Sale
3: 0-1-1
Track Bendigo
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1005m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
5: 2-0-1
Going Soft
2: 0-1-0
Trainer SR
Negative
Reece Goodwin striking at just 8%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 27%
Map Suits
Positive
Suitable Map, where runners in this position outperform market by 4%
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Needs To Imp
Negative
Finished towards the tail last start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Weight Increase
Negative
Rises 4kg now
AAP
Won a 1414m Restricted 62 at Seymour two back. Settled back and didn't figure on a H10 in the 3yo+ (Bm70) at Sale. First try over a mile. Super fit from racing, has some claims.
ILB
On a short turnaround. Started $12.00 and below par performance when 8th last run at Sale but facing weaker opposition. Has won 2 from 5 starts on a wet track. Chance and can measure up.
RP
Beaten 5½l in eighth over 7f at Sale (handicap) last week; successful in a handicap in August and must be respected.
RSIS
Backs up quickly. Odds of 11/1 and only fair when 8th last start at Sale but matched against a less competitive field. Producing consistent results recently. Definite winning chance.
Career
4: 1-0-1
Rating · IRD
78
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Flemington
1: 0-0-0
Track Stawell
1: 0-0-1
Track Swan Hill
1: 1-0-0
Distance 2500m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1850m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2000m
1: 0-0-1
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-1
Going Soft
2: 1-0-0
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 27% better than Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Positive
Billy Egan 29% above market expected in L100 Rides
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Kicks off second campaign (17-weeks). Since trialled at Colac. Others with stronger claims.
ILB
Fresh after a spell. Jumped at $71.00 and came in 6th last time at Flemington but matched against a less competitive field. Drawn well. Could be in the mix.
RP
Beaten 9l when sixth of 15 at Flemington over 1m4½f (handicap) four months ago; this just his fifth race; unexposed in handicaps with this his second start in this company; enters calculations as would have leading chance if back in the same form he showed when winning two starts ago.
RSIS
First run back today. Started at 70/1 and ran 6th last run at Flemington but facing a weaker grade. Drawn by the rails. Will be dropping in distance.
Career
38: 4-9-6
Rating · IRD
82
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
3: 0-1-0
Second-up
2: 1-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Scone
1: 0-1-0
Track Bendigo
2: 1-0-0
Track Bairnsdale
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1400m
3: 0-1-0
Distance 1406m
2: 1-1-0
Distance 1454m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
19: 1-6-4
Going Heavy
6: 1-2-0
Going Soft
13: 2-1-2
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 8%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 22%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 13%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Broke a long run of outs when winning at Bairnsdale over this trip. Has a tricky draw to contend with this time. Handles the sting out of the ground. One for exotics.
ILB
Rocketed home when winning last time at Bairnsdale and on an upward trajectory in recent races. Has plenty of early speed. Testing ability against stronger contenders. Betting is the best guide.
RP
Successful by just under 2l at Bairnsdale three weeks ago, ending losing run; easy enough to take on despite that win last time.
RSIS
Ran home strongly to win last time at Bairnsdale but competing at a higher level of competition. Shows good early pace. Displaying improvement over the past few runs. Betting is the best guide.
Career
22: 2-3-4
Rating · IRD
88
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
4: 0-1-1
Second-up
3: 0-0-2
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat Synthetic
3: 0-2-1
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-0
Track Morphettville
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2000m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 2040m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2100m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
16: 2-0-3
Going Soft
3: 0-1-0
Going Synthetic
3: 0-2-1
Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 21% lower than Career Avg.
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are under performing market expectations by -44%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 23% POT in L100 Runners
Map Suits
Positive
Suitable Map, where runners in this position outperform market by 4%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Winkers Off
Positive
Winkers coming off this start
AAP
Long losing streak. Performance just fair this course off long spell at $21. Can't enthuse.
ILB
Was well beaten when 10th last run around here. Is capable of a resurgence. Good chance at a nice price.
RP
Not beaten that far over 7f here (handicap) three weeks ago; has won previously at this course; a long time since her last win; passed over as this is competitive.
RSIS
Faded away to finish 10th last time here. Happy to forgive that run. Solid claims.
Career
13: 1-5-1
Rating · IRD
84
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
4: 0-2-0
Second-up
2: 1-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-2-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-1
Track Morphettville
2: 0-1-0
Track Sunshine Coast
3: 0-2-0
Track Benalla
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1680m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2100m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
5: 0-2-0
Going Soft
8: 1-3-1
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 31% better than Career Avg.
Key Rider
Positive
Dylan Dunn 44% above market expected in L100 Rides
Map Suits
Positive
Suitable Map, where runners in this position outperform market by 4%
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
First-up (25-weeks). Placed at Kyneton first-up last campaign. Back from Listed level. Can make her presence felt fresh in this line-up.
ILB
First up after 25 weeks and good performance to run into 2nd beaten by 3/4L first up last preparation at Kyneton. Expecting to settle positively. Goes down in class. Watch betting.
RP
Towards the rear of 13 in a Listed race dropped down to 1m2f (Morphettville) in May; down in class this time but one to tread carefully with.
RSIS
Resuming and produced an eye catching run when 2nd resuming last preparation at Kyneton. Has early pace and positions nicely. Drops back to a suitable grade. Down in distance. Watch for a sign in the market.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Leader
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
AAP
Failed to threaten at Kyneton. Drops to shorter trip. Respect on previous sound form.
ILB
Started at $9.00 and gave away some ground when 9th last start at Kyneton. Racing consistently this preparation.
RSIS
Started 8/1 and tailed off to finish 9th last run at Kyneton. In good order since resuming from a break.
Career
8: 2-0-0
Rating · IRD
87
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
2: 1-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Track Kilmore
1: 1-0-0
Track Warrnambool
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1200m
3: 1-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
2: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
5: 2-0-0
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -22% POT in their L100 Races
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 13%
Margin LS
Positive
Won by a big margin last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Stationed mid and sustained a strong run at Kilmore. Poised to deliver another big performance.
ILB
Bolted in when winning by 3L last start at Kilmore and showing improvement in recent outings. Racing in stronger company.
RP
Won by 3l at Kilmore upped to this distance three weeks ago; she's an attractive contender.
RSIS
Won easily by a margin of 3L last run at Kilmore and form has been improving over recent runs. Matched against a stronger field.
Career
13: 2-1-3
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
3: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Stawell
2: 0-0-1
Track Swan Hill
1: 1-0-0
Track Naracoorte
1: 0-0-1
Distance 2700m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1350m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-1-0
Going Soft
3: 1-1-0
Going Good
8: 1-0-2
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-1
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -67% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 8% POT in L100 Runners
Map Suits
Positive
Suitable Map, where runners in this position outperform market by 4%
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
First-up (30-weeks). Fresh runs have been fair without threatening to win. Prefer to see after a lengthy absence.
ILB
First up from a 30 week spell. Was $19.00 and lost ground in the run home when 8th last start at Stawell and dropping back to a shorter trip. Can't back with any confidence.
RP
Was eighth of 11, beaten 8l, over 1m5½f at Stawell (handicap) in April; this looks a fair heat so looks risky.
RSIS
Resuming after a 30 week break. Started at 18/1 and struggled with the pace when 8th last time at Stawell and dropping back to a shorter trip. Large claim helps.