Shortest win price
Wintery (4)
1.95
Welcome to Ballarat on a wet afternoon for the Hygain Edge Benchmark 62 over the sharp 1000m sprint trip. The track is rated a Heavy 8 with showers lingering overhead, adding a slippery puzzle for punters to solve. Looking at the win market order, Wintery holds sway at the head of betting, closely followed by Gunz, Nordic Strike, and Kooralbyn in that order, with Divine Vicky, Brummagen, and El Salto making up the rest of the field.
Let us dive into the form behind those shorter prices, starting with the market leader Wintery, prepared by Aaron Purcell and steered by Tom Madden. This runner resumes after a sixteen-week break, having placed here at Ballarat first-up last campaign and tuning up with a recent trial win at Colac. Gunz for trainer S Jokic returns from an eighteen-week spell with Chelsea Jokic in the saddle, boasting fresh credentials and a handy Tatura trial under the belt after kicking off last prep with a Swan Hill victory. Meanwhile, C Maher saddles up Nordic Strike from barrier two with Zac Moore taking the ride, coming off a solid third in a staggered finish at Warrnambool over this exact distance and profiling as a major player with a low draw.
There are plenty of other intriguing yarns in this race once you look past the absolute favourites. The speed map suggests a strong tempo up front with Gunz, Nordic Strike, Kooralbyn, and Brummagen all listed as leaders who like to get rolling early, which could set it up for something with a bit of late dash. Kooralbyn for the P G Moody and Katherine Coleman stable comes in following a gritty win at Bairnsdale after showing plenty of ticker from a wide gate. Down in the weights, El Salto brings a wealth of experience to the track for trainer L E Robertson, while Divine Vicky and Brummagen round out the hopes in what promises to be a fascinating contest for us punters.
Shortest win price
Wintery (4)
1.95
Most career wins
El Salto
13-12-7 from 112 starts
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Offpace
Leader
Gunz · Positive
Fast Finisher
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Nordic Strike · Positive
Early Splits
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Wintery · Positive
Early Splits
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Kooralbyn · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 55% in Last 100 Rides
Career
9: 3-0-0
Rating · IRD
97
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
4: 1-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Flemington
4: 1-0-0
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-0-0
Track Caulfield
1: 0-0-0
Distance 955m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
3: 1-0-0
Distance 1100m
4: 1-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
7: 3-0-0
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 5%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 42%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Awkward Draw
Negative
Would have liked a better draw
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
First-up (14-weeks). Ex G M Begg in Victoria. Has run well fresh. Can hit the ground running for new stable.
ILB
Racing fresh today after a break. Jumped at $9.00 and lost ground in the run home when 6th last time at Sandown. First race for a new trainer.
RP
Not beaten too far when sixth of ten (Sandown) in July; runs for a new trainer here; clear chance.
RSIS
Resuming after break. Odds of 8/1 and lost ground in the run home when 6th last start at Sandown. Coming to a new trainer.
Career
8: 2-3-1
Rating · IRD
87
Speed map
Leader
First-up
2: 1-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Seymour
1: 0-1-0
Track Caulfield
1: 0-0-0
Track Swan Hill
1: 1-0-0
Distance 975m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1000m
5: 1-2-1
Distance 1100m
2: 0-1-0
Going Good
2: 1-0-0
Going Heavy
3: 1-2-0
Going Soft
3: 0-1-1
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 41% better than Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Positive
Chelsea Jokic 34% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -32% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 28%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
1st Up S/R
Positive
Has won 1 from 2 when resuming
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
First-up (18-weeks). Opened last prep with a win at Swan Hill while brought back with a Tatura trial. Right in the mix fresh in this line-up.
ILB
First up from a break of 18 weeks and bold effort when winning first up last preparation at Swan Hill. Shows good closing speed. Stepping down to a lower level. Solid chance.
RP
Finished just behind Wintery when tenth at Caulfield four months ago; returns from a break here; this is competitive and hard to recommend.
RSIS
Resuming and charged home to win resuming last preparation at Swan Hill. Can go through the gears. Has been racing in stronger company. Has to cope with a weight increase. Great chance.
Career
12: 2-3-3
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Leader
First-up
3: 1-1-0
Second-up
2: 1-0-1
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-1-1
Track Warrnambool
1: 0-0-1
Track Cranbourne
2: 1-0-0
Track Stony Creek
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1000m
6: 0-2-2
Distance 1005m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1100m
2: 1-0-0
Going Good
4: 2-0-1
Going Heavy
6: 0-2-2
Going Soft
2: 0-1-0
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Gap In Runs
Negative
Not raced for 32 days
AAP
4 weeks since last run. Secured third in a staggered finish at Warrnambool over this trip. Drawn to get a conservative run. Rates among the better chances.
ILB
Ran home into 3rd beaten by just over 6L last start at Warrnambool and has a good draw. Performing impressively since returning from a spell. Expect a bold effort.
RP
Has been fairly consistent of late; beaten 6l (third, Warrnambool) four weeks ago; others more appealing.
RSIS
Did well to run into 3rd beaten by just over 6L last time at Warrnambool and has a positive stall. Producing consistent results in recent runs. Expect support.
Career
16: 2-3-3
Rating · IRD
90
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
2: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 1-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-1
Track Flemington
2: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1000m
8: 1-2-2
Distance 1100m
7: 1-1-1
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
9: 2-2-2
Going Heavy
2: 0-1-0
Going Soft
5: 0-0-1
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Increased Dist
Positive
Distance rise from last start
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Resuming (16-weeks). Handy form when last seen. Placed at Ballarat first-up last campaign while winning a recent trial without much pressure. Held form fairly well throughout last prep.
ILB
First up after 16 weeks and reeled them in to win first up last preparation at Pakenham. Has plenty of early speed. Up against a less competitive field. Will show up at the business end.
RP
Held when seventh beaten 7l over 5½f at Caulfield (handicap) in July; this is competitive and others more persuasive.
RSIS
Resuming and ran on strongly to win resuming last preparation at Pakenham. Likely to be well placed early. Facing a weaker group of contenders. Rises in weight. Well respected contender.
Career
2: 1-0-0
Rating · IRD
78
Speed map
Leader
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Mornington
1: 0-0-0
Track Bairnsdale
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 1-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 55% in Last 100 Rides
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 6%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 57%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 63% Profit on Turnover
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Fresh
Positive
Freshened up. Had a break of 42-60 days
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Let-up (43-days). All his toughness on show when overcame the wide draw at Bairnsdale at second appearance. Speedy. Sharper now, capable of figuring again with even luck.
ILB
Freshened for this. Finished well when winning last time at Bairnsdale but facing formidable competition. Displays good tactical speed. Respect the betting.
RP
Opened account at the second time of asking in a maiden at Bairnsdale when winning by a head six weeks ago; has to be considered.
RSIS
Freshened up. Finished with purpose when winning last start at Bairnsdale but up against a more competitive field. Will be positive in the run early. Not at all out of this race.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Offmidfield
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 7%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 36%
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Just held on after leading at Echuca off long break. M Aitken on again. Has claims for a repeat.
ILB
Led from start to finish when winning by a margin of a long neck last start at Echuca but matched against tougher rivals.
RSIS
Led from start to finish to win by a long neck last start at Echuca but rising in grade.
Career
34: 5-4-3
Rating · IRD
72
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
4: 2-0-0
Second-up
3: 0-0-0
Third-up
3: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
3: 0-0-1
Track CurrentTrack
2: 0-0-0
Track Kembla Grange
5: 2-1-0
Track Canterbury
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1000m
6: 1-0-0
Distance 1100m
13: 2-2-0
Distance 1200m
11: 2-2-3
Going Good
19: 2-3-3
Going Heavy
6: 1-0-0
Going Soft
9: 2-1-0
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 35% in Last 100 Rides
Key Rider
Positive
Holly Durnan 34% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Stable In Form
Positive
Stable going well. Out performing market by 133%
Map Suits
Positive
Suitable Map, where runners in this position outperform market by 1%
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Improver
Positive
Poised to improve on recent form here
AAP
Third run now in new stable/region. Not disgraced at Cranbourne over this distance. Not fancied.
ILB
Started at $51.00 and folded up in the straight when 6th last start at Cranbourne but drawn well. Needs to find a lot more.
RP
Finished sixth beaten just over 2l at Cranbourne three weeks ago; she meets the required standard ability wise.
RSIS
Odds of 50/1 and didn't find the line when 6th last start at Cranbourne but drawn nicely.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Offmidfield
Fresh
Positive
Freshened up. Had a break of 42-60 days
AAP
Let-up (43-days). Off pace, unable to muster and only battled home 6th at Bendigo. Fitter but hasn't done much third-up. Sharper now, rough place prospect only.
ILB
On a short turnaround. Tidy effort when 3rd last time at Kilmore but rising in grade. The large claim from Chelsea Thompson helps.
RSIS
On a quick back up. Honest race when 3rd last start at Kilmore but facing stiffer opposition. The large claim from Chelsea Thompson helps.
Career
6: 1-0-1
Rating · IRD
74
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
3: 1-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Ballarat
4: 1-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
4: 1-0-0
Track Morphettville
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
5: 1-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
5: 1-0-1
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 27% better than Career Avg.
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Consecutive Wins
Positive
Has strung together a few races in a row
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Consistent
Positive
Showing up at the business end
AAP
Really gutsy performance on the speed this venue off long break. Can lead or take a sit. Could give some cheek at odds.
ILB
Dictated the tempo when winning by a margin of 1L last start here but facing stiffer opposition. Should jump out and bowl along. Getting better in recent performances.
RP
Shown recent signs of improvement and not had much racing for her age; gained a 1l success in a maiden when getting off the mark at the fifth time of asking last month; definite chance.
RSIS
Set the pace when winning by a margin of 1L last run here and showing improvement in recent outings. Won't be far away during the run.
Career
18: 1-4-5
Rating · IRD
83
Speed map
Leader
First-up
3: 0-1-1
Second-up
1: 1-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Dubbo
6: 0-0-1
Track Bendigo
1: 0-0-0
Track Orange
1: 0-0-1
Distance 800m
3: 1-2-0
Distance 900m
3: 0-1-2
Distance 1000m
11: 0-1-3
Going Soft
4: 0-2-1
Going Good
14: 1-2-4
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 32% better than Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Positive
Sam Kennedy 61% above market expected in L100 Rides
Key Jockey
Positive
Sam Kennedy winning at 41% POT in last 100 rides
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Placed Hcp (C1) at Wellington 10 Apr. Got the wobbles and faded out of the placings at Bendigo. Will be fitter second-up and takes a 2kg claim. Can make his presence felt.
ILB
Finished 6th last run at Bendigo and up against stronger opponents. Will be pushing for a forward position early. Watch the betting.
RP
Finished sixth but wasn't beaten too far (3½l, Bendigo) on debut for this trainer last month; you have to go back a fair way to find his only win; this is competitive and hard to recommend.
RSIS
Finished 6th last run at Bendigo and up against stronger opponents. Has plenty of early pace. Watch for a sign in the market.
Rating · IRD
20
AAP
Sent forward and stuck to the task bravely in the 3yo+ Hcp (56) at Yarra Glen. Tougher alley. Strikes a harder race.
ILB
Racing on a quick back up. At $3.30 performed below standard when 8th last time at Wycheproof and up against a higher level of opposition.
RSIS
On a short turnaround. Started at 9/4 and disappointing outing when 8th last start at Wycheproof and up against a higher level of opposition.
Career
112: 13-12-7
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
5: 1-0-0
Second-up
4: 1-0-1
Third-up
4: 0-1-1
Fourth-up
3: 0-1-0
Track Donald
5: 0-1-0
Track Tatura
2: 0-1-0
Track St Arnaud
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1050m
4: 0-0-1
Distance 1100m
20: 4-3-1
Distance 1106m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
22: 1-0-0
Going Synthetic
16: 2-1-3
Going Good
66: 7-8-4
Jockey Booking
Negative
Nathan Punch current POT is 15% below Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 25% in L100 rides
Map Suits
Positive
Suitable Map, where runners in this position outperform market by 4%
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Sent out $20 when unable to threaten at St Arnaud. Coming back in distance. Others with stronger claims.
ILB
Odds of $20.00 and couldn't maintain the pace when 9th last time at St Arnaud and stepping up to a higher level. Likely to settle back in the field. Prefer to watch.
RP
Has a course-and-distance record of four wins from 23 starts; fair effort when beaten 4l, finishing ninth of ten at St Arnaud over 6f (handicap) last month; this looks a decent race so makes little appeal.
RSIS
Started at 19/1 and couldn't stay in touch when 9th last run at St Arnaud and up against tougher rivals. Likely to get back in the run.