Shortest win price
Just Say Vale (4)
1.80
The Sky Racing Maiden Plate at Doomben is a three-year-old sprint over 1640 metres on Good 4 going under overcast skies at 11:53 am AEDT. This is a winnable race for a debutant or an improver, and the market has Just Say Vale shortest, with Spirit Of Torque next best, followed by Notes Of Autumn and Tisani James. It's a fair spread across the field, suggesting no runaway favourite — punters reckon several carry a genuine winning chance.
Just Say Vale comes in as the shortest-priced runner, and the AAP notes suggest there's merit to that call. The barrier one draw suits, and the rise to 1615 metres should be in this runner's favour after a fair debut at Eagle Farm on 14 October when supported into play. Trainer T J Gollan and jockey Angela Jones have a smart betting background here. Spirit Of Torque, the second marker, has done the hard yards at Doomben and was grinding away for the minors last time over 1660 metres on the same Good 4 going. With nine starts and some form in the book — three minors — the commentary reckons this is a suitable contest to breakthrough in. That's punter-speak for a horse ready to win. Notes Of Autumn shapes as an interesting roughie prospect from barrier 5. Ben E Thompson and Adam Campton are a hot combination by the numbers, out-performing market expectations by 138 per cent in recent races. The step up in distance from 1200 to 1640 metres should suit after a reasonable Gatton effort in soft ground.
Tisani James has drawn four and sits midfield in the running map. The form line shows consistency — four, four, seven, four, six, four, six, five across eight starts — without a win yet. Ron Stewart is below his career average, which is a worry, but the track and distance data suggest exposure here. The speedGroups show Fearless Victor will lead from barrier three, with Alto Luna and Spirit Of Torque holding an offpace lane. That setup favours runners positioned to run through the field late rather than those wanting an easy lead. Paula is worth a passing glance at improved odds given Taylor Marshall's recent form sits 21 per cent above his career average, though the jockey–trainer combination has cooled lately.
Shortest win price
Just Say Vale (4)
1.80
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Midfield
Offpace
Leader
Alto Luna · Negative
Trainer SR
Ryan Tyrell striking at just 3%
Fearless Victor · Negative
Jockey Booking
Less suitable jockey engaged
Tisani James · Negative
Jockey Booking
Ron Stewart current POT is 58% below Career Avg.
Just Say Vale · Negative
Tricky Map
Runners with this map, underperform market by 4%
Career
7: 0-1-1
Rating · IRD
75
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-1-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Doomben
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Track Ipswich
3: 0-1-1
Distance 1050m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
6: 0-1-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-1
Trainer SR
Negative
Ryan Tyrell striking at just 3%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are under performing market expectations by -52%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 33%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Sent out $19 when unable to threaten at Ipswich second-up. Hope for the wider exotics.
ILB
Jumped at $19.00 and finished 6th last time at Ipswich. Leaving right out.
RP
Beaten 6l when sixth of 11 over 6½f at Ipswich (maiden) last month; without a win in seven attempts although has finished second but not the most consistent of horses lately; may have to settle for supporting role.
RSIS
Odds of 18/1 and came in 6th last start at Ipswich.
Career
1: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
74
Speed map
Leader
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Eagle Farm
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -43% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 12% POT in L100 Runners
Map Suits
Positive
Suitable Map, where runners in this position outperform market by 2%
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Backup
Positive
Racing again inside one week
Blinkers Off
Positive
Blinkers coming off this start
AAP
On a short back-up. Had a low-key debut at Eagle Farm 28 Oct. Looks in need of more racing.
ILB
Backs up quickly. Jumped at $26.00 and didn't find the line when 8th last run at Eagle Farm on a heavy track but having second career run. Will need to lift.
RP
Beaten 9l to finish last on his debut at Eagle Farm with blinkers tried over 7f at 25-1 a week ago; must be respected.
RSIS
On a quick back up. Started at 25/1 and looked outclassed when 8th last run at Eagle Farm but was a debutant last start. Should muster plenty of early toe.
Career
8: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
72
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Doomben
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Track Gold Coast
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1540m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1700m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
7: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Jockey Booking
Negative
Ron Stewart current POT is 58% below Career Avg.
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 70% in L100 rides
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Needs To Imp
Negative
Finished towards the tail last start
Limited
Negative
Hasn’t featured at all in all career runs
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Had Chances
Negative
Still in maiden grade after several runs
Weight Increase
Negative
Rises 4kg now
AAP
Unable to make an impression here last time out. Could pop up at fair odds.
ILB
Was $101.00 and advanced late into 5th last start at this track and facing a weaker grade. Unplaced in all races to date and will have to carry more weight. Very hard to have.
RP
Yet to open his account after eight starts; behind Spirit Of Torque when beaten 7l two weeks ago in a handicap; easy to oppose.
RSIS
Was 100/1 and picked up some late ground when 5th last time here and challenged by less formidable competitors. Hasn't fired a shot in 8 attempts and rises in weight.
Career
1: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
90
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Eagle Farm
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Tricky Map
Negative
Runners with this map, underperform market by 4%
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Raceday Experience
Positive
Wiser for debut run
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Debut effort fair in spread-out finish at Eagle Farm under sustained support 14 Oct. Wiser for it. Rise to 1615m should suit. Should have more to offer.
ILB
Odds of $7.50 and ran 6th last time at Eagle Farm. Giving another chance here and was on debut last time. Has a nice advantage with a good barrier. Gets a solid chance here.
RP
Finished sixth and beaten just over 5l first time out (Eagle Farm, 7f) at 13-2 last month; leading claims.
RSIS
Started 13/2 and finished 6th last run at Eagle Farm. Can show a better performance this time and having second career run. Will appreciate a good stall. Worth a lot of thought in this race.
Career
2: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
79
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Doomben
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Track Gatton
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 21% better than Career Avg.
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 138%
Stable In Form
Positive
Stable going well. Out performing market by 28%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 19% POT in L100 Runners
Key Jockey
Positive
Ben E Thompson winning at 8% POT in last 100 rides
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Reasonable effort without seriously threatening in soft going at Gatton. Should appreciate stepping up in distance. Among the dangers.
ILB
Was $4.80 and showed some merit late when 5th last run at Gatton. Jockey Ben E Thompson and trainer Adam Campton are a promising combination. Marginal contender.
RP
Solid run when fifth over 7f at Gatton (maiden) last month; not had much racing - third outing here.
RSIS
Odds of 4/1 and was making up some late ground when 5th last time at Gatton. Ben E Thompson and Adam Campton are a proven combination.
Career
3: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Ipswich
2: 0-0-0
Track Eagle Farm
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1350m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 800m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 21% in Last 100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Tricky Map
Negative
Runners with this map, underperform market by 4%
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Needs To Imp
Negative
Finished towards the tail last start
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 2
Winkers On
Positive
Important gear change of winkers on
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Failed to threaten (wide draw) at Ipswich second-up as an outsider. Untried in the wet. Place preferred option.
ILB
Odds of $41.00 and didn't attack the line when 10th last run at Ipswich but drawn nicely. Goes up in weight. Unlikely to feature.
RP
Few miles on the clock with this her fourth race; close up behind Alto Luna when tenth over 6½f at Ipswich (maiden) last month; needs considering.
RSIS
At 40/1 didn't threaten when 10th last time at Ipswich but has a good draw. Will have to carry more weight.
Career
9: 0-3-1
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Doomben
4: 0-0-1
Track CurrentTrack
4: 0-0-1
Track Ipswich
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1110m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
7: 0-3-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Ready To Strike
Positive
Can be rewarded for recent consistent form
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Weight Increase
Negative
Rises 4kg now
AAP
Kept grinding away for the minors here last time. This looks a suitable contest to breakthrough in. Hard to toss.
ILB
Amongst the placegetters when 3rd last run here and challenged by weaker competitors. Up in weight. Strong winning chance.
RP
Seems to be improving based on last two runs but yet to get off the mark and losing run stands at nine; not beaten too far (3l) two weeks ago in a handicap.
RSIS
Picked up late ground when 3rd last run at the track and has been racing in stronger company. Will have to carry extra weight. Like to be on it today.