Next2Go logo

Flemington (VIC) horses tips & previews

One race at a time: field, form guide and win/place odds for Flemington (VIC), with capture times on every price.

Meeting — Sat 7 Nov, 11:00 am AEDT

Meetings · Sat, 7 NovFlemington (VIC)Change

Race 3 — Queen Elizabeth Stakes 2600m · jumps

Race preview

Welcome to Flemington for the Queen Elizabeth Stakes over 2600m on a Good4 track with showers about, where punters are lining up to dissect a fascinating staying test. The win market has Pinhole heading calculations as the shortest priced runner, closely followed by the international visitor Defiantly, King Pedro, and Litzdeel rounding out the leading quartet in early betting order.

The form behind those prominent market figures reads with plenty of interest. Pinhole lines up here after taking out the Herbert Power at Caulfield two starts back before a fair effort without threatening behind Juja Kibo in the Valley Cup, bringing a strong form line for the powerful C J Waller stable. Meanwhile, Defiantly arrives fresh following a let-up after taking out the Goodwood Handicap in great style over in the UK, making the Joseph O'Brien-trained stayer a fascinating international contender after missing the Cup on Tuesday.

Looking further down the speed maps and remaining entries, Litzdeel comes into calculations after a solid third in the Bendigo Cup behind So You Are and boasts a game second at the only other time trying this track and distance, suggesting super fitness can take her a long way. With speed groups showing leaders like Bella Montagna and Litzdeel likely pushing forward from their barriers, this 2600m staying feature sets up as a cracking tactical yarn for the punters.

Race notes

  • GROUP 3 QUALITY,Group 3,Open,QUEEN ELIZ
  • GOOD4
  • Showers
  • 10 runners

Shortest win price

Pinhole (4)

2.50

Most career wins

Berkeley Square

10-6-5 from 46 starts

Speed map

Back left · leaders right

Backmarker

  • 6Torranzino

Offmidfield

  • 4Pinhole
  • 9Manzor Blue

Midfield

  • 7Valiant King
  • 3Berkeley Square

Offpace

  • 5King Pedro

Onpace

  • 10Newlook
  • 8Litzdeel

Leader

  • 1Defiantly
  • 11Bella Montagna

  • Defiantly · Negative

    Cold J/T Combo

    Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races

  • Berkeley Square · Positive

    Fast Finisher

    Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start

  • Pinhole · Positive

    Profitable Trainer

    Stable runners going at 9% POT in L100 Runners

  • King Pedro · Positive

    Rider SR

    Jockey recent POT is 19% better than Career Avg.

No.RunnerBarWgtLast 5WinPlace
1DefiantlyJ: Dylan Browne Mcmonagle·T: Joseph O'Brien859.5kg16 4 2 1 19: 3-1-1$4.00$1.40

Career

9: 3-1-1

Rating · IRD

94

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey60%
  • Trainer80%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed20%
  • Rating80%
  • Closing Speed50%

Record

  • First-up

    2: 0-0-1

  • Second-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Third-up

    1: 0-1-0

  • Track Ascot

    2: 0-1-0

  • Track Goodwood

    1: 1-0-0

  • Track Deauville

    1: 1-0-0

  • Distance 2103m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 2279m

    1: 1-0-0

  • Distance 2816m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Good

    6: 1-1-1

  • Going Soft

    3: 2-0-0

Last starts

  1. 1Deauville2999m23 Aug 2026 · Group 2 · SOFT7-5.5
  2. 1Goodwood4148m31 July 2026 · GBBPlus Race · GOOD TO FIRM-3
  3. 2Ascot4014m16 June 2026 · Heritage Handicap · GOOD0.2L
  4. 4Killarney2856m12 May 2026 · 4yo+ · GOOD3.75L
  5. 16Cork2103m24 Apr 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD18.25L
  6. 7Ascot2847m3 Oct 2025 · Listed · SOFT5.55L
  7. 4Leopardstown2816m21 Aug 2025 · Listed · GOOD5.55L
  8. 1Killarney2279m14 July 2025 · 3yo · SOFT-1.75

Insights

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races

  • Margin LS

    Positive

    Won by a big margin last start

  • Resuming

    Negative

    Poor strike rate when first up

  • Class Rise

    Negative

    Racing in stronger company

  • Honest

    Positive

    Finishing in the money lately

Comments

AAP

Let-up (76-days). Stakes winning stayer- International. Took out the Goodwood Hcp (105) at G B - Goodwood 31 Jul. Key contender fresh in this line-up after missing the Cup Tuesday.

ILB

First up from a break. Ran away with a win by 5 1/2L last run at Deauville and up against a less competitive field. Very capable of taking this out.

RP

Three from nine career starts overseas; others have more pressing claims.

RSIS

First run back from a break. Won very easily when winning by a margin of 5 1/2L last start at Deauville and up against a less competitive field. Capable type.

2VaubanScratched1––––

Career

34: 10-5-6

Rating · IRD

98

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey60%
  • Trainer80%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo40%
  • Early Speed80%
  • Rating100%
  • Closing Speed50%

Record

  • First-up

    9: 2-3-1

  • Second-up

    7: 1-0-3

  • Third-up

    6: 1-0-2

  • Fourth-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Leopardstown

    3: 1-1-1

  • Track Lyon Parilly

    1: 1-0-0

  • Track Rosehill

    4: 2-0-2

  • Distance 2200m

    1: 1-0-0

  • Distance 3127m

    1: 0-1-0

  • Distance 3218m

    1: 1-0-0

  • Going Heavy

    1: 0-1-0

  • Going Soft

    10: 4-1-3

  • Going Good

    23: 6-3-3

Last starts

  1. 23Flemington3200m3 Nov 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD430.16L
  2. 9Geelong2400m21 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD46.22L
  3. 10Randwick1045m28 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(6)8.6L
  4. 3Doomben2000m23 May 2026 · DOOMBEN CUP · GOOD43.4L
  5. 3Rosehill2400m28 Mar 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT65L
  6. 1Rosehill2000m14 Mar 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD4-1
  7. 6Warwick Farm1200m16 Feb 2026 · Barrier Trial5L
  8. 5Warwick Farm1000m3 Feb 2026 · Barrier Trial1.9L

Insights

  • Early Sectionals

    Negative

    Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace

  • Gave ground LS

    Negative

    Faded towards the finish last time out

  • Drawn In

    Positive

    Suited drawn down low

  • Form At Track

    Negative

    Yet to win here

  • Primed

    Positive

    Fitter here racing on a quick back up

  • Well Placed

    Positive

    Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Backing up quickly. Failed to threaten in Tuesday's Cup here when second-up as an outsider. Others rate stronger.

ILB

On a quick back up. Gave away some ground when 23rd last time here but competing at a lower level of competition. Likely to settle back in the field.

RP

Finished tailed off over 2m here (Group 1) on Tuesday; admirable career strike-rate (ten from 15 to date); drops in class; not discounted based on the pick of his form and had excuses last time (crowded).

RSIS

Backing up quickly for this race. Weakened under pressure when 23rd last run here but matched against lesser competition. Will be giving the leaders a big start.

3Berkeley SquareJ: Declan Bates·T: Dan O'Sullivan757.5kg6 10 10 4 246: 10-6-5$11.00$2.75

Career

46: 10-6-5

Rating · IRD

87

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey20%
  • Trainer40%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
  • Early Speed100%
  • Rating60%
  • Closing Speed100%

Record

  • First-up

    6: 1-0-0

  • Second-up

    5: 1-0-1

  • Third-up

    5: 1-1-0

  • Fourth-up

    5: 0-1-0

  • Track Ballarat

    2: 2-0-0

  • Track CurrentTrack

    17: 4-1-1

  • Track Morphettville

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 2040m

    3: 1-0-0

  • Distance 2400m

    5: 0-2-2

  • Distance 2520m

    2: 0-0-0

  • Going Good

    24: 4-5-3

  • Going Heavy

    5: 2-0-1

  • Going Soft

    17: 4-1-1

Last starts

  1. 2Bendigo2400m28 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD40.75L
  2. 4Geelong2400m21 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD44.25L
  3. 10Flemington2520m3 Oct 2026 · BART CUMMINGS · HEAVY88.7L
  4. 10Caulfield2000m19 Sept 2026 · GROUP 3 QUALITY · GOOD32.68L
  5. 6Caulfield2000m29 Aug 2026 · Open · SOFT65L
  6. 5Caulfield1600m15 Aug 2026 · BM100 · SOFT63.6L
  7. 6Morphettville3200m9 Mar 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD410.4L
  8. 1Flemington2500m14 Feb 2026 · HCP · GOOD4-0.4

Insights

  • Fast Finisher

    Positive

    Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start

  • Trainer Recent

    Negative

    Camp struggling with S/R just 4%

  • Hot J/T Combo

    Positive

    Combo are winning 25% POT in their L100 Races

  • Trainer A2E

    Negative

    Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 36%

  • Ran On Hard LS

    Positive

    Ran on well last start

  • Improved L/S

    Positive

    Improved again last start

  • Class Rise

    Negative

    Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Came home with a wet sail to grab second in Bendigo Cup when $31. Enjoys this track. Super fit from racing, can challenge again.

ILB

Attacked the line when 2nd last run at Bendigo. Keep safe.

RP

Runner-up of 13 in the Bendigo Cup at Bendigo finished just ahead of Litzdeel last Wednesday; winner of four races at this venue; cannot be ignored if confirming promise shown last time.

RSIS

Claimed a spot in the placings when 2nd beaten by 3/4L last time at Bendigo.

4PinholeJ: James Mc Donald·T: C J Waller656kg9 3 1 1 716: 5-1-1$2.50$1.26

Career

16: 5-1-1

Rating · IRD

94

Speed map

Offmidfield

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey40%
  • Trainer100%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo60%
  • Early Speed100%
  • Rating80%
  • Closing Speed80%

Record

  • First-up

    3: 0-0-0

  • Second-up

    2: 0-0-0

  • Third-up

    2: 1-0-0

  • Fourth-up

    1: 1-0-0

  • Track Flemington

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track CurrentTrack

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Rosehill

    2: 1-1-0

  • Distance 1408m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1600m

    2: 0-0-1

  • Distance 1621m

    1: 1-0-0

  • Going Good

    12: 4-0-1

  • Going Heavy

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Soft

    3: 1-1-0

Last starts

  1. 7Flemington2500m24 Oct 2026 · 4yo+ · GOOD43.41L
  2. 1Caulfield2400m10 Oct 2026 · GROUP 2 SWP · GOOD3-0.06
  3. 1Rosehill1900m26 Sept 2026 · 3UP BM88 HCP · GOOD4-0.03
  4. 3Randwick1600m5 Sept 2026 · 3UP BM94 HCP · GOOD41.4L
  5. 9Randwick1045m28 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(6)7.2L
  6. 2Rosehill2400m27 June 2026 · 3UP BM90 HCP · SOFT63L
  7. 1Randwick Kensington2400m10 June 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT5-0.6
  8. 4Randwick2000m23 May 2026 · 3yo+ · HEAVY103.2L

Insights

  • Profitable Trainer

    Positive

    Stable runners going at 9% POT in L100 Runners

  • Early Splits

    Positive

    Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit

  • Well Placed

    Positive

    Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Herbert Power winner at Caulfield two back. Fair effort without threatening behind Juja Kibo in MV Cup. Formline is strong. Right in this.

ILB

Jumped at $6.50 and finished 7th last run at this track. More confidence with jockey James Mcdonald guiding the horse. Tracking very well this campaign. Finishes off strongly. Goes well and could be a value opportunity.

RP

Proven that he knows how to get his head in front (seeking a sixth career win); not disgraced in seventh in a Group 2 last month; down in class; strong contender if replicating his best form.

RSIS

Started 11/2 and ran 7th last start at the track. James Mcdonald adds value. Has a nice turn of foot. Must respect.

5King PedroJ: Mark Zahra·T: John O'Shea & Tom Charlton955.5kg1 7 7 4 418: 4-6-1$5.00$1.75

Career

18: 4-6-1

Rating · IRD

94

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey100%
  • Trainer80%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed80%
  • Rating80%
  • Closing Speed60%

Record

  • First-up

    4: 0-1-0

  • Second-up

    3: 0-1-0

  • Third-up

    2: 1-1-0

  • Fourth-up

    2: 1-1-0

  • Track CurrentTrack

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Wanganui

    1: 0-1-0

  • Track Gosford

    2: 1-1-0

  • Distance 2500m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 2000m

    3: 0-2-0

  • Distance 2040m

    1: 0-1-0

  • Going Good

    10: 1-4-1

  • Going Heavy

    1: 0-1-0

  • Going Soft

    7: 3-1-0

Last starts

  1. 4Flemington2500m24 Oct 2026 · 4yo+ · GOOD42L
  2. 4Rosehill1900m10 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD42.26L
  3. 7Randwick1200m25 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(6)10L
  4. 7Warwick Farm1200m3 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)3.9L
  5. 1Grafton2350m16 July 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD3-0.2
  6. 1Rosehill2400m27 June 2026 · 3UP BM90 HCP · SOFT6-3
  7. 2Rosehill2000m13 June 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT50.1L
  8. 7Rosehill1030m5 June 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(6)5.7L

Insights

  • Rider SR

    Positive

    Jockey recent POT is 19% better than Career Avg.

  • Jockey Booking

    Positive

    Mark Zahra 24% above market expected in L100 Rides

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races

  • Slow Early LS

    Negative

    Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg

  • Well Placed

    Positive

    Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Won Grafton Cup Grafton 16 Jul. Not disgraced this track second-up. Can have a major say if he gets the breaks.

ILB

Jumped at $7.00 and finished 4th last time around here. May see an upturn in form. Definite claims.

RP

Produced a string of consistent efforts but yet to win a race of this value; finished ahead of four of these in a Group 2 last month when fourth beaten 2l upped to 1m4½f; this is a step down in class but easy to oppose.

RSIS

Odds of 6/1 and came in 4th last run at this track. Capable of bouncing back. Good chance and definitely has claims.

6TorranzinoJ: Billy Egan·T: P A Preusker255kg1 5 10 6 1237: 6-7-2$26.00$4.20

Career

37: 6-7-2

Rating · IRD

76

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey100%
  • Trainer100%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
  • Early Speed100%
  • Rating40%
  • Closing Speed20%

Record

  • First-up

    6: 0-1-0

  • Second-up

    5: 0-1-0

  • Third-up

    4: 0-1-0

  • Fourth-up

    3: 1-1-0

  • Track Flemington

    5: 0-1-1

  • Track Geelong

    1: 1-0-0

  • Track Bendigo

    2: 0-0-0

  • Distance 2000m

    12: 4-1-0

  • Distance 2350m

    1: 0-1-0

  • Distance 1200m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Good

    23: 3-5-1

  • Going Heavy

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Soft

    13: 3-2-1

Last starts

  1. 12Flemington2500m24 Oct 2026 · 4yo+ · GOOD44.28L
  2. 6Caulfield2000m10 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD311.5L
  3. 10Caulfield2000m27 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD48.91L
  4. 5Flemington3200m4 Nov 2025 · 3yo+ · SOFT58L
  5. 1Geelong2400m23 Oct 2025 · 3yo+ · SOFT7-0.5
  6. 2Flemington2520m4 Oct 2025 · BART CUMMINGS · GOOD32.8L
  7. 8Sandown1800m27 Sept 2025 · HCP · GOOD39.2L
  8. 13Caulfield2000m20 Sept 2025 · GROUP 3 QUALITY · GOOD39L

Insights

  • Rider SR

    Positive

    Jockey recent POT is 35% better than Career Avg.

  • Key Rider

    Positive

    Billy Egan 43% above market expected in L100 Rides

  • Trainer Form

    Positive

    In form stable, out performing market expectations 85%

  • Profitable Trainer

    Positive

    Stable runners going at 68% POT in L100 Runners

  • Key Jockey

    Positive

    Billy Egan winning at 26% POT in last 100 rides

  • Form At Track

    Negative

    Yet to win here

  • Well Placed

    Positive

    Drops back to a suitable class

  • Imprv Needed

    Negative

    Would need to lift here to feature

Comments

AAP

Led, gave up the ghost quickly in Moonee Valley Gold Cup this track. Needs a form spike.

ILB

Odds of $61.00 and didn't threaten when 12th last time here. Likely to get back in the field. Can't have in this.

RP

Not beaten that far last month upped to 1m4½f in a Group 2; this is a step down in class; chance if replicating his best form.

RSIS

Started 60/1 and tailed off to finish 12th last start here. Might be ridden for luck.

7Valiant KingJ: Ben Melham·T: C J Waller355kg11 8 10 3 828: 2-3-4$18.00$3.80

Career

28: 2-3-4

Rating · IRD

77

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey80%
  • Trainer100%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
  • Early Speed80%
  • Rating40%
  • Closing Speed80%

Record

  • First-up

    7: 0-1-1

  • Second-up

    6: 2-0-0

  • Third-up

    6: 0-1-2

  • Fourth-up

    5: 0-0-1

  • Track Leopardstown

    2: 0-1-0

  • Track Naas

    1: 0-1-0

  • Track CurrentTrack

    6: 1-0-1

  • Distance 2520m

    2: 1-0-1

  • Distance 2600m

    1: 0-0-1

  • Distance 1500m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Good

    16: 1-1-2

  • Going Heavy

    2: 0-1-1

  • Going Soft

    10: 1-1-1

Last starts

  1. 8Flemington2500m24 Oct 2026 · 4yo+ · GOOD43.47L
  2. 3Flemington2520m3 Oct 2026 · BART CUMMINGS · HEAVY85.25L
  3. 10Randwick2000m19 Sept 2026 · 3UP GROUP 2 SWP · GOOD45.54L
  4. 8Rosehill1030m8 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)4.7L
  5. 11Hawkesbury1600m20 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT67.3L
  6. 7Randwick1045m31 July 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)5.2L
  7. 5Randwick900m20 July 2026 · Barrier Trial · HEAVY(8)1.4L
  8. 10Randwick3200m11 Apr 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD47.1L

Insights

  • Trainer ROI

    Positive

    Runners from this stable currently going at 9% POT in L100 Runners

  • Well Placed

    Positive

    Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Made minor headway from back half here last start. Could give some cheek at odds.

ILB

Started $26.00 and ran 8th last run at the track. Cannot have under these circumstances.

RP

Has winning form at this track; not beaten too far when eighth here last month in a Group 2; might find this company a little easier but unlikely to trouble the principals.

RSIS

Was 25/1 and came in 8th last time here.

8LitzdeelJ: Damian Lane·T: D T O'Brien554kg2 5 2 5 321: 3-6-2$8.50$2.45

Career

21: 3-6-2

Rating · IRD

100

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey100%
  • Trainer20%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo60%
  • Early Speed100%
  • Rating100%
  • Closing Speed80%

Record

  • First-up

    5: 0-0-0

  • Second-up

    4: 0-2-0

  • Third-up

    4: 0-2-1

  • Fourth-up

    4: 1-2-0

  • Track Morphettville

    1: 1-0-0

  • Track Bendigo

    1: 0-0-1

  • Track Caulfield

    6: 0-2-1

  • Distance 2520m

    1: 0-1-0

  • Distance 2600m

    1: 0-1-0

  • Distance 2800m

    2: 1-1-0

  • Going Good

    14: 2-3-2

  • Going Heavy

    1: 0-1-0

  • Going Soft

    6: 1-2-0

Last starts

  1. 3Bendigo2400m28 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD41.25L
  2. 5Geelong2400m21 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD44.75L
  3. 2Flemington2520m3 Oct 2026 · BART CUMMINGS · HEAVY81.25L
  4. 5Flemington2500m12 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD34.2L
  5. 2Caulfield2000m29 Aug 2026 · Open · SOFT61.3L
  6. 4Caulfield Heath1800m8 Aug 2026 · BM100 · SOFT62L
  7. 5Randwick3200m11 Apr 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD42.3L
  8. 2Flemington2600m28 Mar 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT70.8L

Insights

  • Trainer SR

    Negative

    Danny O'Brien striking at just 9%

  • Trainer A2E

    Negative

    Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 40%

  • Trainer Form

    Negative

    Stable out of form, losing 44% Profit on Turnover

  • Map Suits

    Positive

    Suitable Map, where runners in this position outperform market by 3%

  • Early Splits

    Positive

    Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit

  • Ran On Hard LS

    Positive

    Ran on well last start

  • Track Exp

    Positive

    Knows this track well

  • Improved L/S

    Positive

    Improved again last start

Comments

AAP

Solid performance in defeat in the Bendigo Cup behind So You Are. Game second only other time over this track and distance. Super fit from racing, right in the mix again.

ILB

Showed a good turn of foot when 3rd last run at Bendigo. Has the ratings to win this.

RP

Has run well here recently; went down by just over 1l when third in the Bendigo Cup at Bendigo last week.

RSIS

Managed to place 3rd last time at Bendigo. Should go close.

9Manzor BlueJ: Michael Dee·T: Ms L Latta154kg2 4 6 4 1326: 3-5-3$41.00$5.50

Career

26: 3-5-3

Rating · IRD

70

Speed map

Offmidfield

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey20%
  • Trainer80%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
  • Early Speed20%
  • Rating20%
  • Closing Speed80%

Record

  • First-up

    4: 0-1-0

  • Second-up

    3: 0-2-0

  • Third-up

    3: 0-0-1

  • Fourth-up

    3: 0-0-1

  • Track Tauherenikau

    3: 0-1-0

  • Track Ellerslie

    1: 0-1-0

  • Track CurrentTrack

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1400m

    4: 0-1-2

  • Distance 1600m

    8: 0-2-0

  • Distance 2040m

    1: 0-1-0

  • Going Good

    7: 1-0-0

  • Going Heavy

    5: 0-1-0

  • Going Soft

    10: 2-3-1

Last starts

  1. 13Flemington2500m24 Oct 2026 · 4yo+ · GOOD44.38L
  2. 4Hawera2100m3 Oct 2026 · OPN HCP · HEAVY81.41L
  3. 6Trentham1600m19 Sept 2026 · OPN HCP · HEAVY1011.57L
  4. 4Hastings1600m22 Aug 2026 · OPN HCP · HEAVY83.57L
  5. 2Ellerslie3200m7 Mar 2026 · OPN HCP · SOFT56.35L
  6. 1Trentham3200m31 Jan 2026 · OPN HCP · SOFT5-0.35
  7. 6Trentham2200m17 Jan 2026 · Rating 75 Benchmark* · SOFT61.12L
  8. 4Otaki2100m26 Dec 2025 · Rating 75 Benchmark* · SOFT55L

Insights

  • Jockey Booking

    Negative

    Michael Dee current POT is 32% below Career Avg.

  • Rider Poor SR

    Negative

    Jockey underperforming market expectations by 45% in L100 rides

  • Drawn In

    Positive

    Suited drawn down low

  • Well Placed

    Positive

    Drops back to a suitable class

  • Imprv Needed

    Negative

    Would need to lift here to feature

Comments

AAP

Well back and never a factor this track last run. Others carry more punch.

ILB

At $101.00 looked flat when 13th last start around here but has a good draw. Prefers to settle towards the tail. Needs a lot of luck in this race.

RP

Generally modest form since Group 3 success at Trentham in January; towards the rear of 16 in a Group 2 upped to 1m4½f last month; this is a step down in class but easy enough to take on.

RSIS

Started 100/1 and had difficulty when 13th last run around here but can find a nice position from the draw. Does take a while to get into stride.

10NewlookJ: Jamie Melham·T: T Busuttin & N Young454kg4 9 13 4 722: 4-1-3$71.00$7.50

Career

22: 4-1-3

Rating · IRD

85

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey20%
  • Trainer40%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo40%
  • Early Speed100%
  • Rating60%
  • Closing Speed80%

Record

  • First-up

    4: 0-0-1

  • Second-up

    3: 0-0-0

  • Third-up

    3: 1-0-0

  • Fourth-up

    2: 0-0-0

  • Track Saint Cloud

    1: 0-0-1

  • Track Flemington

    3: 0-0-0

  • Track CurrentTrack

    3: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1999m

    2: 0-0-2

  • Distance 2099m

    1: 0-1-0

  • Distance 2600m

    2: 1-0-0

  • Going Good

    10: 3-0-1

  • Going Heavy

    4: 0-0-2

  • Going Soft

    8: 1-1-0

Last starts

  1. 7Randwick2600m17 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT55.7L
  2. 4Flemington2520m3 Oct 2026 · BART CUMMINGS · HEAVY86L
  3. 13Caulfield2000m27 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD414.22L
  4. 9Sandown1500m5 Sept 2026 · 3UP SW+P · SOFT713.9L
  5. 4Eagle Farm3200m13 June 2026 · BRISBANE CUP · HEAVY96.9L
  6. 7Eagle Farm2400m30 May 2026 · GROUP 3 QLTY · SOFT510.1L
  7. 5Flemington2800m16 May 2026 · LISTED SW · GOOD45L
  8. 8Randwick3200m11 Apr 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD44.6L

Insights

  • Trainer SR

    Negative

    T & N Busuttin & Young striking at just 8%

  • Rider

    Negative

    Negative rider change today

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -21% POT in their L100 Races

  • Trainer Recent

    Negative

    Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 34%

  • Early Splits

    Positive

    Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit

  • Down In Weight

    Positive

    Drops 4.5kg from LS run

Comments

AAP

Had all before him at turn and went home tamely at Randwick over this trip. Others more persuasive.

ILB

Started $21.00 and disappointing outing when 7th last run at Randwick but gets a reduction in weight. Has shown early pace in races to date. Watch betting.

RP

Is a specialist at this trip but slumped a bit since winning a Group 2 at Randwick in April; beaten 6l when seventh of ten at Randwick (close behind Bella Montagna) in a Group 3 last month; yard has been going through a quiet spell; passed over.

RSIS

Was 20/1 and below standard effort when 7th last time at Randwick but gets some weight taken off. Has plenty of early pace.

11Bella MontagnaJ: Rachel King·T: G Waterhouse & A Bott1054kg8 4 3 3 520: 2-6-2$26.00$4.20

Career

20: 2-6-2

Rating · IRD

87

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey100%
  • Trainer80%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed80%
  • Rating60%
  • Closing Speed80%

Record

  • First-up

    4: 1-1-0

  • Second-up

    3: 0-1-0

  • Third-up

    2: 0-1-0

  • Fourth-up

    2: 0-0-0

  • Track Kembla Grange

    1: 1-0-0

  • Track Rosehill

    3: 1-0-1

  • Track Wyong

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 2100m

    2: 0-0-0

  • Distance 2300m

    1: 0-0-1

  • Distance 2400m

    3: 1-1-1

  • Going Good

    13: 0-5-2

  • Going Heavy

    2: 1-0-0

  • Going Soft

    5: 1-1-0

Last starts

  1. 5Randwick2600m17 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT54.65L
  2. 3Rosehill2400m26 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD41.19L
  3. 3Newcastle2300m18 Sept 2026 · 3UP GROUP 3 HCP · GOOD32.82L
  4. 4Wyong2100m4 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD40.9L
  5. 8Rosehill1030m21 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)5.6L
  6. 8Rosehill1000m7 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)6.6L
  7. 5Eagle Farm3200m13 June 2026 · BRISBANE CUP · HEAVY913.2L
  8. 2Eagle Farm2400m30 May 2026 · GROUP 3 QLTY · SOFT50.3L

Insights

  • Jockey ROI

    Positive

    Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 29% in Last 100 Rides

  • Jockey Booking

    Positive

    Rachel King 21% above market expected in L100 Rides

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are under performing market expectations by -30%

  • Early Sectionals

    Negative

    Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace

  • Win Drought

    Negative

    Not won for a while

Comments

AAP

Settled back and passed a few late in the ATC St Leger Stakes at Randwick over today's trip. Others rate stronger.

ILB

Jumped at $4.40 and kept chasing when 5th last time at Randwick. Has the speed to overcome the wide draw. Can't leave out of your calculations.

RP

All her wins achieved at a lower level; not disgraced in fifth (Randwick) in a Group 3 last month; unlikely to achieve more than just a supporting role.

RSIS

Was 10/3 and kept chasing when 5th last run at Randwick. Has the pace to overcome the wide draw. Watch the betting.

12House Of LordsScratched10––––

Rating · IRD

20

Speed map

Offmidfield

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey40%
  • Trainer60%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo50%
  • Early Speed50%
  • Rating50%
  • Closing Speed80%

Insights

  • Imprv Needed

    Negative

    Would need to lift here to feature

Comments

AAP

Never a threat after showing no early speed from the barriers this course. First try at 2600m. Hard to warm to here.

ILB

Not in contention when 12th last time here and racing in stronger company.

RSIS

Lacked competitiveness when 12th last start at the track and taking on stronger competition.

Odds correct as at . Odds can change.

Past meetings

  • Thu 5 Nov, 11:00 am AEDT · 9 races
  • Tue 3 Nov, 11:00 am AEDT · 10 races
  • Sat 31 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 9 races
  • Sat 24 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 9 races
  • Sat 3 Oct, 10:00 am AEST · 10 races
  • Sat 12 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 10 races