Hawkesbury (NSW) horses tips & previews

8 Nov, 1:04 am AEDT

One race at a time: field, form guide and win/place odds for Hawkesbury (NSW), with capture times on every price.

Meeting — Sat 7 Nov, 11:00 am AEDT

Meetings · Sat, 7 NovHawkesbury (NSW)Change

Race 1 — Richmond Club Mdn Plate 1400m · jumps Sat 7 Nov, 1:20 pm AEDT

Race preview

Welcome to Hawkesbury for the Richmond Club Mdn Plate over 1400m on a good four surface under fine skies, timed to jump at 1:20 pm AEDT. Looking at how punters are treating the win market, Sur Nova Centauri holds down the shortest quote, closely followed by All Over Harry and Arruza, with Bavaria and Stellar Cipher next in line as the race shapes up nicely for a tactical battle.

The form behind those shorter prices tells an interesting yarn. Sur Nova Centauri returns for a second Australian campaign for G Waterhouse and A Bott after switching from Richard Litt, bringing two recent barrier trials at Randwick and jumping from barrier one with L P Beuzelin steering. All Over Harry comes in for A & S Freedman from barrier six with Keagan Latham aboard, looking to bounce back after just missing at Newcastle two starts back before failing to make an impression at Warwick Farm. Arruza represents the powerful C J Waller yard from barrier two with Rory Hutchings after a low-key debut at Rosehill over this exact 1400m trip on soft ground, where the stablemate will certainly benefit from that initial race experience.

Digging a bit further down the speed maps and wider market, C Maher sends out the debutant Bavaria from barrier four with Adam Farragher taking the ride, a four hundred thousand dollar purchase who has shown fair promise across a handful of barrier trials. Meanwhile, Calippo maps off-midfield for Marc Chevalier and Leeshelle Small, carrying the fastest overall finishing sectionals from the previous start into a race where early speed should be dictated by Arruza pushing forward from the inside alley.

Race notes

CG&E MDN-SW,Maiden
GOOD4
Fine
8 runners

Shortest win price

Sur Nova Centauri (3)

1.60

Speed map

Back left · leaders right

Backmarker

7Husslaa

Offmidfield

1Calippo

Midfield

9Stellar Cipher

Offpace

3Sur Nova Centauri
4All Over Harry
8Pieripper

Firststart

6Bavaria

Leader

5Arruza

Calippo · Positive
Fast Finisher
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Sur Nova Centauri · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -24% POT in their L100 Races
All Over Harry · Positive
Rider SR
Jockey recent POT is 14% better than Career Avg.
Arruza · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 12% in Last 100 Rides

No.RunnerBarWgtLast 5WinPlace

1CalippoJ: Leeshelle Small·T: Marc Chevalier359kg8 3 6 11: 0-0-0$15.00$2.70

Career

1: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offmidfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey80%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed20%
Rating20%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Newcastle
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1250m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

1Hawkesbury1000m20 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)-0.2
6Newcastle1250m18 Oct 2025 · 3UP CG&E MDN HCP · SOFT55.9L
3Hawkesbury800m15 Sept 2025 · Barrier Trial2.5L
8Rosehill900m9 May 2025 · Barrier Trial12.2L

Insights

Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Hot Trainer
Positive
Marc Chevalier in good form, out performing market 30%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 15% POT in L100 Runners
Long Break
Negative
Resumes from a 385 day break (> 300 days)

Comments

AAP

Resuming (55-weeks). A very soft debut performance at Newcastle at huge odds 18 Oct 2025. Furnished with time and will take benefit from recent trials. Betting?

ILB

Racing fresh today after a 55 week spell. Started $101.00 and disappointing effort when 6th last time at Newcastle but was on debut last time. Overlook from a betting angle.

Could not finish better than sixth on his debut over 6f at Newcastle at 100-1 385 days ago; not seen for some time now; that experience should set him in good stead so warrants consideration.

RSIS

Back after a 55 week break. Was 100/1 and subpar when 6th last run at Newcastle but having second race start. Won a trial here on Oct 20th.

2EdoradoScratched6––––

Career

10: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer40%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed20%
Rating40%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Hawkesbury
1: 0-0-0
Track Kembla Grange
2: 0-0-0
Track Warwick Farm
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1850m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2000m
3: 0-0-0
Distance 2100m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
5: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
4: 0-0-0

Last starts

6Kembla Grange800m7 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)3L
4Canberra2000m17 Apr 2026 · CL1-SW · SOFT58.2L
4Gosford2100m9 Apr 2026 · 3UP CL1-SW · GOOD45.6L
6Newcastle1850m31 Mar 2026 · MDN-SW · GOOD411.6L
6Albury2000m19 Mar 2026 · 3UP CL1-SW · SOFT73.8L
9Hawkesbury2000m7 Mar 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · SOFT58.3L
7Newcastle1600m14 Feb 2026 · Maiden · GOOD46L
5Sapphire Coast1400m1 Feb 2026 · Maiden · SOFT62.9L

Insights

Up In Dist
Positive
Racing at a more suitable distance
Not Trustworthy
Negative
May be competing at this level for some time

Comments

AAP

First-up (29-weeks). Has generally struggled to make an impression. Not pushed out Kembla Grange trial 7 Oct. Leaning towards others here.

ILB

First run back from a 29 week spell. Jumped at $16.00 and couldn't maintain the pace when 4th last start at Canberra and coming back in distance.

Held when fourth of six at Canberra over 1m2f (conditions race) in April; yet to get off the mark and losing run stands at ten; returns from an absence here; passed over.

RSIS

Fresh after break of 29 weeks. Started at 15/1 and gave away some ground when 4th last run at Canberra and will be facing a significant drop in distance.

3Sur Nova CentauriJ: L P Beuzelin·T: G Waterhouse & A Bott159kg2 2 7 3 44: 0-1-2$1.60$1.03

Career

4: 0-1-2

Rating · IRD

100

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo40%
Early Speed100%
Rating100%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-1
Track Newcastle
1: 0-0-0
Track Newbury
1: 0-0-1
Track Southwell
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1408m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1420m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1500m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
3: 0-1-2
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

4Randwick1200m23 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)1.1L
3Randwick1050m6 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(7)1.6L
7Newcastle1500m19 May 2026 · MDN-SW · SOFT75.4L
2Warwick Farm1207m23 Apr 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)3L
2Southwell1420m7 Oct 2025 · GBB Race · GOOD1.75L
3Yarmouth1612m16 Sept 2025 · GBB/GBBPlus Race · GOOD3.8L
3Newbury1408m16 Aug 2025 · GBB Race · GOOD1.5L

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -24% POT in their L100 Races
Key Jockey
Positive
L P Beuzelin winning at 5% POT in last 100 rides
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Lightly Raced
Positive
Limited race experience but shown potential
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up

Comments

AAP

Import returning for second Australian campaign (24-weeks). Ex Richard Litt in NSW. Drawn well for return. Capable of figuring fresh while building fitness through 2 trials. Big watch under new trainer.

ILB

Fresh after a break. Odds of $8.00 and weakened under pressure when 7th last run at Newcastle. Overlooking the last run and gets a favourable draw. Recently gelded. Likeable type and a major player.

Came home seventh over 7½f on his debut at Newcastle at 7-1 in May; winless in three starts overseas; returns from a layoff; representing new stable today; others more appealing.

RSIS

Back from break. At 7/1 folded up in the straight when 7th last run at Newcastle. Expected to rebound and promising career start. He underwent a recent gelding procedure. Terrific hope.

4All Over HarryJ: Keagan Latham·T: A & S Freedman657.5kg7 7 2 2 73: 0-1-0$7.00$1.70

Career

3: 0-1-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey80%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating80%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
2: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Newcastle
1: 0-1-0
Track Warwick Farm
1: 0-0-0
Track Randwick
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
2: 0-1-0
Going Good
2: 0-1-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

7Warwick Farm1300m21 Oct 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD417.41L
2Newcastle1300m3 Oct 2026 · 3UP SUPER MDN-SW · GOOD40.51L
2Randwick1050m25 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(6)0.7L
7Randwick740m11 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)5.7L
7Randwick1200m23 May 2026 · 2Y HCP · HEAVY1011.8L
5Randwick1045m15 May 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(7)3.8L
2Randwick1045m21 Apr 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)0.1L
1Canterbury900m10 Apr 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)-0.8

Insights

Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 14% better than Career Avg.
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -63% POT in their L100 Races
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 12%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Just missed at Newcastle 3 Oct. Unable to make an impression at Warwick Farm second-up. Stripping fitter, could give some cheek.

ILB

Jumped at $3.40 and didn't attack the line when 7th last time at Warwick Farm. Has the talent to rebound quickly. Has every chance.

Last of seven over 6½f at Warwick Farm (maiden) two weeks ago; without a win in three attempts although has finished second.

RSIS

Started at 12/5 and couldn't maintain the pace when 7th last run at Warwick Farm. Has the talent to rebound quickly. No surprise to see solid support in the betting.

5ArruzaJ: Rory Hutchings·T: C J Waller257.5kg9 6 1 81: 0-0-0$8.00$1.90

Career

1: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating60%
Closing Speed20%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Rosehill
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

8Rosehill1400m14 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT66.52L
1Rosehill1030m2 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)-0.3
6Rosehill1030m19 June 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)4.5L
9Warwick Farm788m9 June 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)6.1L

Insights

Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 12% in Last 100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -32% POT in their L100 Races
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 9% POT in L100 Runners
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Raceday Experience
Positive
Wiser for debut run
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

From top stable however had a low-key debut at Rosehill 14 Oct. Benefits from the experience. Likely to improve from there. In the mix.

ILB

Started $10.00 and didn't find the line when 8th last run at Rosehill but was a debutant last start. Has plenty of early speed. Drawn nicely. Slight prospect.

Couldn't land a blow on his debut at Rosehill at 9-1 three weeks ago; he ought to improve for experience and has to be taken seriously.

RSIS

Was 9/1 and looked outclassed when 8th last time at Rosehill but fitter for debut run. Should be going forward early. Has a good draw.

6BavariaJ: Adam Farragher·T: C Maher457.5kg3 3 4$6.50$1.60

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo60%
Early Speed50%
Rating40%
Closing Speed50%

Last starts

4Newcastle800m12 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)2.1L
3Kembla Grange800m5 June 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)1.7L
3Illawarra Grange800m6 May 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)8.5L

Insights

Still Learning
Negative
No race experience

Comments

AAP

Trials (4:0-0-2). $400k purchase. Trial form okay for leading stable. Benefit of decent alley. Watch markets.

ILB

First race appearance 3yo by Snitzel for trainer Ciaron Maher. Yet to place in multiple trials. Watch the market moves.

Related to 5f winner Czar; conceding experience to all his rivals; sire can produce useful types; yard gets plenty of debutant winners; every chance with signs of encouragement in profile.

RSIS

3yo runner on debut by Snitzel for trainer Ciaron Maher. Yet to place in all trials.

7HusslaaJ: Beany Panya·T: G M Brown857.5kg6 6 9 4 64: 0-0-0$51.00$4.60

Career

4: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer40%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating40%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Kembla Grange
2: 0-0-0
Track Wyong
1: 0-0-0
Track Gosford
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0

Last starts

6Kembla Grange1400m24 Oct 2026 · 3UP SUPER MDN HCP · GOOD44.1L
4Kembla Grange1200m10 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD42.1L
9Wyong1200m28 Mar 2026 · 2Y MDN-SW · SOFT510.9L
6Gosford1100m14 Mar 2026 · 2Y MDN-SW · SOFT54.4L
6Warwick Farm792m16 Feb 2026 · Barrier Trial4.6L

Insights

Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 42% lower than Career Avg.
Trainer SR
Negative
Graham M Brown striking at just 2%
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 38%
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 55% in L100 rides
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 7%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early

Comments

AAP

Started $16 when safely held in Maiden company at Kembla Grange when second-up. Sharper now, can make his presence felt if he gets the breaks.

ILB

Was $16.00 and faded to finish 6th last run at Kembla Grange. Might be ridden for luck. Not likely to pull off the victory.

Yet to finish better than fourth in his four races; out of the frame (beaten 4l in sixth) in a handicap at Kembla Grange last month; others more appealing.

RSIS

At 15/1 lost ground in the run home when 6th last run at Kembla Grange. Will be giving the leaders a big start.

8PieripperJ: Jean Van Overmeire·T: G D Hickman757.5kg9 3 7 5 54: 0-0-0$41.00$4.20

Career

4: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed20%
Rating40%
Closing Speed60%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Warwick Farm
1: 0-0-0
Track Orange
1: 0-0-0
Track Nowra
1: 0-0-0
Distance 900m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
3: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

5Orange1300m19 Oct 2026 · MDN-SW · GOOD42.42L
5Nowra1200m20 Sept 2026 · CGE MDN-SW · GOOD45L
7Warwick Farm792m3 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)6L
3Warwick Farm817m18 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(7)2.2L
9Warwick Farm1000m6 May 2026 · 2Y C&G MDN-SW · GOOD47.8L
5Newcastle900m23 Apr 2026 · 2Y MDN SW · SOFT53.8L
5Canterbury900m10 Apr 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)4.2L
6Warwick Farm799m13 Nov 2025 · Barrier Trial8.5L

Insights

Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 7%
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Taken back and safely held in shallow field at Orange when second-up. All the better and could show more going to 1400m here.

ILB

Was $6.50 and average effort when 5th last time at Orange. Very hard to have.

Last of five over 6½f at Orange (maiden) last month.

RSIS

Started 11/2 and tailed off when 5th last start at Orange.

9Stellar CipherJ: Lee Magorrian·T: C J Waller557.5kg5 4 7 7 67: 0-1-0$14.00$2.70

Career

7: 0-1-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo60%
Early Speed20%
Rating60%
Closing Speed60%

Record

First-up
2: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham
1: 0-1-0
Track Rosehill
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1125m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
4: 0-1-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0

Last starts

6Hawkesbury1600m15 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT75.81L
7Rosehill1400m30 Sept 2026 · 3yo · GOOD42.63L
7Canterbury1250m16 Sept 2026 · 3Y MDN · GOOD44.95L
4Rosehill1030m8 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)2L
5Flemington1200m4 July 2026 · 2Y FINAL · SOFT73L
4Geelong1125m19 June 2026 · 2Y MDN-SW · HEAVY93.6L
6Flemington1100m14 Feb 2026 · 2yo · GOOD45.6L
2Pakenham1100m29 Jan 2026 · 2Y MDN-SW · GOOD41L

Insights

Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 9% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 12%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Started $14 when safely held in Maiden company in rain affected going this course. Drops to shorter trip. Worth a look.

ILB

Was $14.00 and subpar when 6th last time around here. Betting is the best guide.

Attempting to open his account at the eighth time of asking; no impression when sixth of eight in a handicap last month; others more likely.

RSIS

Was 13/1 and disappointing outing when 6th last run at the track. Not at all out of this race.

Odds correct as at Sat 7 Nov, 1:20 pm AEDT. Odds can change.

Past meetings

Tue 27 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 8 races
Thu 15 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 7 races
Thu 8 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 7 races
Thu 24 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 7 races
Thu 10 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 8 races
Sat 5 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 8 races