Next2Go logo

Hawkesbury (NSW) horses tips & previews

One race at a time: field, form guide and win/place odds for Hawkesbury (NSW), with capture times on every price.

Meeting — Sat 7 Nov, 11:00 am AEDT

Meetings · Sat, 7 NovHawkesbury (NSW)Change

Race 7 — Evergreen Turf Ladies Day Cup 1500m · jumps

Race preview

The Evergreen Turf Ladies Day Cup at Hawkesbury on Saturday offers a fascinating puzzle at 1500 metres over Good 4 going. Paltrow Miss heads the market after a 22-week break, resuming with two trials and an unbeaten first-up record from two starts. Osipenko and Cristal Clear follow, with Hyperbolic and Sandpaper completing the early fancies. The race shapes as a solid staying test for a competitive Listed field, kicking off at 5:15 pm AEDT.

Paltrow Miss has genuine credentials despite the layoff, having raced in elite fillies company last campaign and trialling twice to prepare for this return. However, her current jockey engagement and rider form deserve scrutiny — Louise Day's recent strike rate sits 55 per cent below career average, which tempers the favouritism slightly. Osipenko, trained by Chris Waller in strong form, travelled like a genuine contender second-up at Randwick over 1600 metres and closed intently, though a rider change to Lee Magorrian today is worth noting. Cristal Clear's barrier trial at Warwick Farm was encouraging after a long absence, and the form guide suggests sharp improvement second-up is likely with the benefit of fitness.

Speed-wise, a leading group of four runners — Sandpaper, Filthy Habits, Mighty Ulysses and Paltrow Miss — should dominate early, with Robusto and Cristal Clear poised on-pace. Hyperbolic offers genuine value at odds, having trialled smartly at Hawkesbury and possessed strong earlier-prep form in Brisbane. The gelding shapes as a genuine second-up improver, and while Brad Widdup's recent runners underperform, Hyperbolic's placement and jockey Heavelon Van Der Hoven's strong ROI suggest a genuine case for punters seeking a roughie with serious form credentials.

Race notes

  • 3yo+,LADIES DAY,LISTED 3UP HCP,Listed,Open
  • GOOD4
  • Fine
  • 12 runners

Shortest win price

Paltrow Miss (11)

4.80

Most career wins

Filthy Habits

9-11-8 from 41 starts

Speed map

Back left · leaders right

Backmarker

  • 3Osipenko
  • 13Kirribilli

Offmidfield

  • 6Depth Of Character

Midfield

  • 9Mighty Ulysses
  • 12Snitzel Dancer

Offpace

  • 1Robusto
  • 11Paltrow Miss
  • 5Major Beel
  • 10Hyperbolic

Onpace

  • 4Cristal Clear

Leader

  • 2Sandpaper
  • 7Filthy Habits

  • Robusto · Positive

    Maps Well

    Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 15%

  • Sandpaper · Negative

    Cold J/T Combo

    Combo are losing -36% POT in their L100 Races

  • Osipenko · Negative

    Rider

    Negative rider change today

  • Cristal Clear · Negative

    Cold J/T Combo

    Combo are under performing market expectations by -61%

No.RunnerBarWgtLast 5WinPlace
1RobustoJ: Brodie Loy·T: Bjorn Baker760kg2 10 1 14 1050: 8-9-6$10.00$3.10

Career

50: 8-9-6

Rating · IRD

100

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey80%
  • Trainer100%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo40%
  • Early Speed80%
  • Rating100%
  • Closing Speed20%

Record

  • First-up

    9: 1-0-1

  • Second-up

    8: 1-1-2

  • Third-up

    6: 3-1-0

  • Fourth-up

    5: 1-0-2

  • Track Gosford

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Eagle Farm

    5: 0-2-0

  • Track Gold Coast

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1000m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1200m

    5: 0-0-1

  • Distance 1250m

    1: 0-0-1

  • Going Heavy

    2: 0-0-0

  • Going Soft

    12: 4-3-2

  • Going Good

    36: 4-6-4

Last starts

  1. 10Randwick1600m24 Oct 2026 · 3UP QLTY HCP · GOOD48.46L
  2. 14Rosehill1400m10 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD47L
  3. 1Rosehill900m8 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)-1.7
  4. 10Rosehill1500m28 Mar 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT630L
  5. 2Rosehill1500m14 Mar 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD40.2L
  6. 2Randwick1050m5 Mar 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)0.8L
  7. 10Wyong1600m10 Jan 2026 · HCP · GOOD413.1L
  8. 2Eagle Farm1400m3 Jan 2026 · Open · GOOD41L

Insights

  • Maps Well

    Positive

    Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 15%

  • Gave ground LS

    Negative

    Faded towards the finish last time out

  • Well Placed

    Positive

    Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Handy but gave away tamely at Randwick when second-up. Fitter. Winner of $2.5 million and can find a few lengths here.

ILB

Started $7.00 and didn't attack the line when 10th last time at Randwick. Happy to overlook that run. Should go close.

RP

Last of ten over 1m at Randwick (handicap) last month; in with a shout despite being up in class and he has run with credit on a number of occasions.

RSIS

Started at 6/1 and struggled with the pace when 10th last start at Randwick. Can make a comeback. Very capable of taking this out.

2SandpaperJ: Chad Lever·T: Bjorn Baker159kg1 4 4 1 1341: 7-6-2$7.50$2.50

Career

41: 7-6-2

Rating · IRD

95

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey40%
  • Trainer100%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed100%
  • Rating80%
  • Closing Speed20%

Record

  • First-up

    8: 2-0-0

  • Second-up

    7: 2-0-1

  • Third-up

    5: 0-3-0

  • Fourth-up

    5: 0-2-1

  • Track Flemington

    2: 0-0-0

  • Track Rosehill

    7: 0-1-0

  • Track Caulfield

    6: 1-1-0

  • Distance 1400m

    15: 4-2-2

  • Distance 1500m

    6: 0-1-0

  • Distance 1600m

    5: 0-1-0

  • Going Soft

    14: 3-2-1

  • Going Good

    24: 4-4-1

  • Going Heavy

    3: 0-0-0

Last starts

  1. 13Rosehill1400m10 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD46.17L
  2. 1Hawkesbury1000m29 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)-0.8
  3. 4Rosehill1300m12 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD41.8L
  4. 4Randwick1045m28 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(6)1L
  5. 1Randwick740m14 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)-0.5
  6. 6Rosehill1500m28 Mar 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT64.3L
  7. 4Rosehill1500m14 Mar 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD40.8L
  8. 3Randwick1050m5 Mar 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)1.3L

Insights

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -36% POT in their L100 Races

  • Fast Early

    Positive

    Sectionals suggest goes hard early

  • Gave ground LS

    Negative

    Faded towards the finish last time out

  • Drawn In

    Positive

    Suited drawn down low

  • Dist S/R

    Negative

    Poor performer at the distance

  • Gap In Runs

    Negative

    Not raced for 28 days

  • Well Placed

    Positive

    Drops back to a suitable class

  • Weight Increase

    Negative

    Rises 4kg now

Comments

AAP

Now 4 weeks between runs. Close-up in the Theo Marks at Rosehill 12 Sep. On pace but folded up quickly in latest Grp 3 at Rosehill. Much better gate here and blinkers back on. Respecting.

ILB

Folded up in the straight when 13th last run at Rosehill but facing weaker opposition. Should be going forward early. Drawn the rails. Going up in weight. Expect a forward showing.

RP

Achieved plenty of success against this sort of company but hasn't really fired since his success in a Listed handicap at Randwick in January; towards the rear of 15 at Rosehill last month in a Group 3; now drops in class but makes little appeal.

RSIS

Faded away to finish 13th last time at Rosehill but up against a less competitive field. Won't be far away during the run. Gets the perfect stall. Rising in weight. Should be in the finish.

3OsipenkoJ: Lee Magorrian·T: C J Waller258kg15 9 8 10 442: 5-3-4$5.50$2.10

Career

42: 5-3-4

Rating · IRD

96

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey20%
  • Trainer100%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo60%
  • Early Speed80%
  • Rating100%
  • Closing Speed100%

Record

  • First-up

    10: 1-0-0

  • Second-up

    9: 1-1-2

  • Third-up

    6: 0-0-1

  • Fourth-up

    6: 1-0-0

  • Track Kembla Grange

    2: 0-0-1

  • Track Rosehill

    12: 3-1-1

  • Track Randwick

    12: 2-1-0

  • Distance 2200m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1200m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1300m

    3: 1-0-0

  • Going Good

    27: 1-2-2

  • Going Heavy

    5: 0-1-1

  • Going Soft

    10: 4-0-1

Last starts

  1. 4Randwick1600m24 Oct 2026 · 3UP QLTY HCP · GOOD41.43L
  2. 10Rosehill1400m10 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD42.41L
  3. 8Rosehill1030m2 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)3.8L
  4. 9Rosehill900m8 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)6.7L
  5. 15Rosehill2000m30 May 2026 · 3yo+ · HEAVY912L
  6. 5Scone1600m15 May 2026 · LISTED · GOOD41.5L
  7. 9Bendigo1600m2 May 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD34.7L
  8. 4Caulfield1400m4 Apr 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD32.9L

Insights

  • Rider

    Negative

    Negative rider change today

  • Hot Trainer

    Positive

    Chris Waller in good form, out performing market 22%

  • Trainer ROI

    Positive

    Runners from this stable currently going at 9% POT in L100 Runners

  • Early Sectionals

    Negative

    Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace

  • Ran On Hard LS

    Positive

    Ran on well last start

  • Drawn In

    Positive

    Suited drawn down low

  • Dist S/R

    Negative

    Poor performer at the distance

  • Track Exp

    Positive

    Knows this track well

Comments

AAP

Quality galloper but hasn't won for a year. Close-up at Rosehill 10 Oct. Went back, closed intently at Randwick when second-up. Getting close.

ILB

Odds of $12.00 and made up ground when 4th last start at Randwick and will try to take advantage of the draw. Possesses very good closing speed. Good potential.

RP

Respectable effort in a handicap at Randwick last month (had two of these rivals behind); a good record at this level; this represents a step up in class so others more likely.

RSIS

Started 11/1 and advanced late into 4th last time at Randwick and can find a nice position from the draw. Has good closing pace. Very tidy performer.

4Cristal ClearJ: Braith Nock·T: Annabel & Rob Archibald457.5kg3 13 3 2 920: 6-2-1$7.00$2.45

Career

20: 6-2-1

Rating · IRD

94

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey100%
  • Trainer80%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed100%
  • Rating80%
  • Closing Speed40%

Record

  • First-up

    5: 1-1-0

  • Second-up

    3: 1-0-0

  • Third-up

    3: 2-0-1

  • Fourth-up

    3: 1-0-0

  • Track Dubbo

    1: 1-0-0

  • Track Newcastle

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Warwick Farm

    2: 0-1-0

  • Distance 1300m

    3: 0-1-0

  • Distance 1500m

    6: 3-0-1

  • Distance 1550m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Good

    10: 3-2-1

  • Going Heavy

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Soft

    9: 3-0-0

Last starts

  1. 9Randwick1500m24 Oct 2026 · 5Y SWP · GOOD48.08L
  2. 2Warwick Farm1207m13 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)0.3L
  3. 3Rosehill1030m2 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)2.3L
  4. 13Doomben1600m16 May 2026 · BERNBOROUGH · SOFT79.5L
  5. 3Randwick1500m25 Apr 2026 · 3UP BM100 HCP · GOOD41L
  6. 15Randwick1600m4 Apr 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT712.6L
  7. 1Rosehill1500m14 Mar 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD4-0.2
  8. 1Randwick1050m5 Mar 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)-0.8

Insights

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are under performing market expectations by -61%

  • Maps Well

    Positive

    Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 15%

  • Fast Early

    Positive

    Sectionals suggest goes hard early

  • Gave ground LS

    Negative

    Faded towards the finish last time out

  • Track Exp

    Positive

    Knows this track well

  • Well Placed

    Positive

    Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Failed to threaten at Randwick after lengthy absence at double-figure odds. Fitter second-up. Drawn well. Can improve sharply.

ILB

Faded away to finish 9th last time at Randwick but ideal trip as proven previously. Has early speed and positions nicely. Watch betting.

RP

Has won at this track; not far behind Depth Of Character when ninth in a conditions race at Randwick two weeks ago; more on his plate this time but should be thereabouts.

RSIS

Weakened under pressure when 9th last time at Randwick but suited at this distance historically. Has shown early pace in races to date. Could feature here.

5Major BeelJ: L P Beuzelin·T: G Waterhouse & A Bott657.5kg8 8 3 5 734: 6-4-3$26.00$4.40

Career

34: 6-4-3

Rating · IRD

97

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey100%
  • Trainer80%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo40%
  • Early Speed100%
  • Rating100%
  • Closing Speed40%

Record

  • First-up

    8: 2-0-1

  • Second-up

    6: 1-1-0

  • Third-up

    6: 1-1-0

  • Fourth-up

    4: 0-1-0

  • Track Randwick

    15: 2-1-0

  • Track Moonee Valley

    1: 0-1-0

  • Track Launceston

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1500m

    2: 0-1-0

  • Distance 1600m

    10: 2-1-0

  • Distance 1800m

    3: 0-0-1

  • Going Good

    21: 3-1-0

  • Going Heavy

    4: 1-1-2

  • Going Soft

    9: 2-2-1

Last starts

  1. 7Randwick1600m24 Oct 2026 · 3UP QLTY HCP · GOOD44.74L
  2. 5Randwick1200m6 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(7)2.7L
  3. 3Randwick1200m25 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(6)8.7L
  4. 8Randwick1050m11 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)6L
  5. 8Randwick1050m4 May 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)8.2L
  6. 13Launceston2400m25 Feb 2026 · GROUP 3 HCP · GOOD47.1L
  7. 1Canterbury1106m6 Feb 2026 · Barrier Trial-0.5
  8. 4Gold Coast2200m17 Jan 2026 · 3UP QUALITY · GOOD43.9L

Insights

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -24% POT in their L100 Races

  • Maps Well

    Positive

    Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 15%

  • Fast Early

    Positive

    Sectionals suggest goes hard early

  • Well Placed

    Positive

    Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Sent out $51 when unable to threaten at Randwick off long break. Will be fitter second-up. Smoky place prospect at best.

ILB

Didn't threaten when 7th last start at Randwick. Capable of bouncing back. Genuine claims.

RP

Not disgraced in seventh when dropped back to 1m two weeks ago (Randwick) in a handicap; difficult to oppose despite moving up in class and he has won in classy company before.

RSIS

Lost ground in the run home when 7th last start at Randwick. Expecting improvement. Expect a forward showing.

6Depth Of CharacterJ: Keagan Latham·T: Annabel & Rob Archibald856kg12 8 8 3 827: 4-2-3$9.00$2.90

Career

27: 4-2-3

Rating · IRD

95

Speed map

Offmidfield

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey80%
  • Trainer80%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed80%
  • Rating80%
  • Closing Speed80%

Record

  • First-up

    5: 1-0-0

  • Second-up

    3: 0-0-1

  • Third-up

    3: 0-0-0

  • Fourth-up

    2: 0-0-0

  • Track Gold Coast

    2: 0-0-0

  • Track Canterbury

    1: 1-0-0

  • Track Gosford

    2: 0-1-0

  • Distance 1250m

    1: 1-0-0

  • Distance 1300m

    2: 0-0-1

  • Distance 1400m

    6: 1-0-1

  • Going Good

    21: 3-1-2

  • Going Soft

    6: 1-1-1

Last starts

  1. 8Randwick1500m24 Oct 2026 · 5Y SWP · GOOD45.4L
  2. 3Scone1100m7 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)1.1L
  3. 8Eagle Farm1600m27 June 2026 · BOTB FINAL HCP · SOFT64.4L
  4. 8Eagle Farm1800m30 May 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT55.2L
  5. 12Scone1600m15 May 2026 · LISTED · GOOD44L
  6. 5Gosford1600m9 May 2026 · 3-4yo · GOOD41.7L
  7. 4Randwick1500m25 Apr 2026 · 3UP BM100 HCP · GOOD42.6L
  8. 6Canterbury900m10 Apr 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)7.3L

Insights

  • Jockey ROI

    Positive

    Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 14% in Last 100 Rides

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races

  • Well Placed

    Positive

    Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Long winless run. Settled back and didn't figure first run back in the Five Diamonds Prelude at Randwick. Better for the outing. Could fill the minors with improvement.

ILB

Only fair when 8th last start at Randwick. Always seems to find the line well. Can't leave out of your calculations.

RP

Finished eighth, beaten 5½l, (Randwick) last month in a conditions race; facing a tougher assignment than last time, makes little appeal.

RSIS

Mediocre performance when 8th last start at Randwick. Might take a while to wind up but should be hitting top gear in the straight. Watch betting.

7Filthy HabitsJ: Jean Van Overmeire·T: Bjorn Baker1255.5kg2 2 3 4 141: 9-11-8$23.00$4.40

Career

41: 9-11-8

Rating · IRD

84

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey60%
  • Trainer100%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
  • Early Speed100%
  • Rating60%
  • Closing Speed50%

Record

  • First-up

    6: 1-1-1

  • Second-up

    5: 2-1-0

  • Third-up

    5: 0-1-3

  • Fourth-up

    5: 1-1-0

  • Track Albany

    1: 1-0-0

  • Track Bunbury

    3: 0-1-2

  • Track Belmont

    11: 2-2-2

  • Distance 1400m

    4: 0-1-1

  • Distance 1500m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1608m

    1: 0-1-0

  • Going Good

    28: 5-10-6

  • Going Heavy

    2: 1-0-1

  • Going Soft

    11: 3-1-1

Last starts

  1. 1Warwick Farm1207m13 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)-0.3
  2. 4Rosehill900m2 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)1.7L
  3. 3Lark Hill1050m2 June 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(6)1.5L
  4. 2Ascot2400m1 Jan 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD42.9L
  5. 2Ascot2200m17 Dec 2025 · 3yo+ · GOOD40.3L
  6. 3Ascot2200m6 Dec 2025 · 3yo+ · GOOD41L
  7. 7Ascot2100m22 Nov 2025 · 3yo+ · GOOD42L
  8. 4Ascot1800m8 Nov 2025 · 3yo+ · GOOD43.3L

Insights

  • Up In Dist

    Positive

    Racing at a more suitable distance

  • Long Break

    Negative

    Resumes from a 310 day break (> 300 days)

  • Blinkers Off

    Positive

    Blinkers coming off this start

  • Well Placed

    Positive

    Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

First-up (44-weeks). Ex Brandon Fiore in WA. Seldom puts in a bad one. Has a good first up record while cruising through a winning trial at Warwick Farm. Big watch at first Eastern start.

ILB

Back from a break of 44 weeks. Overrun late when 2nd beaten by almost 3L last start at Ascot but back to a shorter distance. Hard to recommend with any confidence.

RP

Proven that he knows how to get his head in front (seeking a tenth career win) but wins have come at a lower level; second of 15 in the Perth Cup at Ascot on New Year's Day; first run for stable; returns from an absence here; dropping in class but looks risky.

RSIS

Resumes after a 44 week break. Was found wanting late when 2nd last time at Ascot but coming back in trip. Racing for a new trainer.

8Port LockroyScratched11––––

Rating · IRD

20

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey50%
  • Trainer100%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
  • Early Speed80%
  • Rating60%
  • Closing Speed50%

Insights

  • Tricky Map

    Negative

    Runners with this map, underperform market by 8%

  • Dist S/R

    Negative

    Poor performer at the distance

  • Increased Dist

    Positive

    Distance rise from last start

  • Resuming

    Negative

    Poor strike rate when first up

  • Well Placed

    Positive

    Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

First-up (19-weeks). Winless since 23 Nov 2024 but went close in Benchmark 100 company at Randwick first-up last campaign. Had three quie trials. Follow market leads.

ILB

First up after a break. Couldn't stay in touch when 10th last run at Eagle Farm.

RSIS

Fresh from a break. Couldn't maintain the pace when 10th last time at Eagle Farm.

9Mighty UlyssesJ: Heavelon Van Der Hoven·T: Annabel & Rob Archibald554kg6 1 5 17 133: 7-2-0$18.00$4.00

Career

33: 7-2-0

Rating · IRD

90

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey100%
  • Trainer80%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
  • Early Speed80%
  • Rating80%
  • Closing Speed50%

Record

  • First-up

    8: 2-1-0

  • Second-up

    7: 3-0-0

  • Third-up

    6: 0-1-0

  • Fourth-up

    4: 0-0-0

  • Track CurrentTrack

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Rosehill

    3: 0-0-0

  • Track Sunshine Coast

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1600m

    8: 2-0-0

  • Distance 1603m

    2: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1609m

    4: 3-0-0

  • Going Soft

    13: 3-0-0

  • Going Firm

    3: 1-0-0

  • Going Good

    12: 3-1-0

Last starts

  1. 1Muswellbrook1200m21 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)-0.1
  2. 17Randwick1600m3 Oct 2026 · 3UP BM94 HCP · SOFT629.62L
  3. 5Randwick1050m11 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)3.5L
  4. 1Coffs Harbour1600m7 Aug 2026 · COFFS CUP · SOFT5-2.5
  5. 6Randwick1800m11 July 2026 · 3UP BM88 HCP · HEAVY910.2L
  6. 12Rosehill1400m4 July 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT64.3L
  7. 8Randwick1400m20 June 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT54.4L
  8. 7Randwick1300m6 June 2026 · 3UP BM94 HCP · SOFT53.1L

Insights

  • Fast Finisher

    Positive

    Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start

  • Jockey ROI

    Positive

    Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 15% in Last 100 Rides

  • Key Rider

    Positive

    Heavelon Van Der Hoven 22% above market expected in L100 Rides

  • Key Jockey

    Positive

    Heavelon Van Der Hoven winning at 6% POT in last 100 rides

  • Increased Dist

    Positive

    Distance rise from last start

  • Gap In Runs

    Negative

    Not raced for 35 days

  • Well Placed

    Positive

    Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

5 weeks since last run. Coffs Harbour Cup winner who failed to threaten in soft going at Randwick at wide odds. Won a Muswellbrook trial but hard to see winning in this line-up.

ILB

At $91.00 couldn't maintain the pace when 17th last time at Randwick and competing at a higher level of competition. Winner in a trial at Muswellbrook on Oct 21st. Place best.

RP

Proven that he knows how to get his head in front (seeking an eighth career win); was tailed off 35 days ago at Randwick in a handicap; unlikely to achieve more than just a supporting role with more demanding test in store.

RSIS

Odds of 90/1 and looked outclassed when 17th last run at Randwick and rising in class. Won a trial at Muswellbrook on Oct 21st.

10HyperbolicJ: Adam Farragher·T: Brad Widdup1054kg2 3 3 5 721: 5-5-4$7.50$2.60

Career

21: 5-5-4

Rating · IRD

82

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey100%
  • Trainer60%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed80%
  • Rating60%
  • Closing Speed40%

Record

  • First-up

    5: 0-1-0

  • Second-up

    3: 2-1-0

  • Third-up

    3: 2-0-1

  • Fourth-up

    2: 1-1-0

  • Track Doomben

    1: 0-1-0

  • Track Hawkesbury

    4: 1-3-0

  • Track CurrentTrack

    4: 1-3-0

  • Distance 1100m

    2: 0-1-0

  • Distance 1200m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1300m

    3: 1-1-0

  • Going Good

    12: 3-4-2

  • Going Heavy

    2: 0-0-1

  • Going Soft

    7: 2-1-1

Last starts

  1. 7Randwick1400m17 Oct 2026 · 3UP BM88 HCP · SOFT53.39L
  2. 5Hawkesbury1000m29 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)1.8L
  3. 3Eagle Farm2100m27 June 2026 · 3UP F&M LISTED SW+P · SOFT62.5L
  4. 3Eagle Farm1600m6 June 2026 · 3UP F&M WFA · GOOD40.3L
  5. 2Doomben1600m23 May 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD40.2L
  6. 2Hawkesbury1400m2 May 2026 · BM88 · GOOD40.7L
  7. 11Randwick1400m18 Apr 2026 · 3UP BM100 HCP · GOOD45.3L
  8. 5Kembla Grange1400m21 Mar 2026 · Class 5 · SOFT70.5L

Insights

  • Trainer Recent

    Negative

    Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 20%

  • Tricky Map

    Negative

    Runners with this map, underperform market by 8%

  • Early Sectionals

    Negative

    Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace

  • Track Exp

    Positive

    Knows this track well

  • Form 3rd Up

    Positive

    Has won 2 from 3 when third up

  • Well Placed

    Positive

    Drops back to a suitable class

  • Weight Drop

    Positive

    Drops 6kg from LS run

Comments

AAP

Raced well in Brisbane last prep and not disgraced at Randwick off spell at $41. Will be fitter and more effective second-up. Could give some cheek at odds.

ILB

Started at $41.00 and got tired late when 7th last start at Randwick but up against tougher opponents. Gets a reduction in weight. Prefer in something easier.

RP

Has won at this course; wins have come at a lower level; not disgraced when seventh of 15 in a handicap (Randwick) three weeks ago; may have to settle for supporting role as facing a tougher assignment this time.

RSIS

Started 40/1 and faded away when 7th last start at Randwick but matched against tougher rivals. Goes down in weight.

11Paltrow MissJ: Louise Day·T: C Maher354kg1 2 3 3 65: 2-1-2$4.80$1.95

Career

5: 2-1-2

Rating · IRD

90

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey20%
  • Trainer80%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed100%
  • Rating60%
  • Closing Speed50%

Record

  • First-up

    2: 2-0-0

  • Second-up

    1: 0-1-0

  • Third-up

    1: 0-0-1

  • Track Morphettville

    1: 0-0-1

  • Track Caulfield

    1: 0-1-0

  • Track Pukekura

    1: 1-0-0

  • Distance 1200m

    1: 1-0-0

  • Distance 1400m

    1: 1-0-0

  • Distance 1700m

    1: 0-1-0

  • Going Good

    4: 1-1-2

  • Going Soft

    1: 1-0-0

Last starts

  1. 6Newcastle1000m12 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)5L
  2. 3Eagle Farm2200m6 June 2026 · 3yo · GOOD42L
  3. 3Morphettville2000m25 Apr 2026 · 3yo · GOOD41.5L
  4. 2Caulfield1700m4 Apr 2026 · 3Y FILLIES HCP · GOOD31.5L
  5. 1Sandown1400m11 Mar 2026 · 3YF BM64 · GOOD4-0.5
  6. 1Pukekura1200m24 May 2025 · MDN 2YO · SOFT7-3

Insights

  • Current SR

    Negative

    Rider’s recent POT is returning 55% lower than Career Avg.

  • Jockey Booking

    Negative

    Less suitable jockey engaged

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -30% POT in their L100 Races

  • Rider Poor SR

    Negative

    Jockey underperforming market expectations by 64% in L100 rides

  • Lightly Raced

    Positive

    Limited race experience but shown potential

  • 1st Up S/R

    Positive

    Has won 2 from 2 when resuming

  • Well Placed

    Positive

    Drops back to a suitable class

  • Honest

    Positive

    Finishing in the money lately

Comments

AAP

Resuming (22-weeks). Right amongst it in elite fillies company last campaign. Unbeaten first-up while tuned with 2 trials. Will have longer trips in mind now but must respect.

ILB

Resumes from a break. Couldn't keep the pace going when 3rd beaten by 2L last run at Eagle Farm and showing consistent performance in races. Down in trip. Possible place chance.

RP

Finishing third was a good effort in June at Eagle Farm in a Group 1; returns from a layoff; this is a step down in class but only limited appeal.

RSIS

Resuming after a break. Despite being overrun still grabbed 3rd last run at Eagle Farm and good career start. Fitter for a trial at Gosford on Oct 28th.

12Snitzel DancerJ: Mitchell Bell·T: G Ryan & S Alexiou1154kg3 5 7 3 911: 3-1-0$13.00$3.60

Career

11: 3-1-0

Rating · IRD

89

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey40%
  • Trainer80%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo40%
  • Early Speed60%
  • Rating60%
  • Closing Speed40%

Record

  • First-up

    3: 1-0-0

  • Second-up

    2: 0-0-0

  • Third-up

    2: 1-0-0

  • Fourth-up

    1: 1-0-0

  • Track CurrentTrack

    1: 1-0-0

  • Track Rosehill

    1: 0-1-0

  • Track Canterbury

    1: 1-0-0

  • Distance 1300m

    1: 0-1-0

  • Distance 1350m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1400m

    4: 1-0-0

  • Going Heavy

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Soft

    2: 1-0-0

  • Going Good

    8: 2-1-0

Last starts

  1. 9Randwick1600m17 Oct 2026 · 4yo+ · SOFT54.93L
  2. 3Randwick1050m6 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(7)3.4L
  3. 7Newcastle1400m18 Sept 2026 · 3UP F&M GROUP 3 SWP · GOOD35.04L
  4. 5Wyong1350m4 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD41.4L
  5. 3Rosehill1030m21 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)2.2L
  6. 6Rosehill900m7 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)6.5L
  7. 9Eagle Farm1600m2 May 2026 · 3yo · HEAVY86.5L
  8. 1Randwick1400m18 Apr 2026 · 3yo · GOOD4-0.8

Insights

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -21% POT in their L100 Races

  • Early Splits

    Negative

    Out of races with slow early tempos

  • Track Exp

    Positive

    Knows this track well

  • Well Placed

    Positive

    Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Started $61 when safely held in Open company in soft going at Randwick. Hard to make a case beyond the minors.

ILB

Started $61.00 and faded to finish 9th last time at Randwick. Place chance.

RP

Can boast winning form over this C&D; out of the frame (beaten 5l in ninth, Randwick) last month in a Group 3; this might be easier; has won in classy company before and a possible player.

RSIS

Started 60/1 and folded up in the straight when 9th last time at Randwick.

13KirribilliJ: Molly Bourke·T: Ms A Turner954kg5 4 3 2 915: 2-1-2$81.00$11.00

Career

15: 2-1-2

Rating · IRD

70

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey80%
  • Trainer20%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed20%
  • Rating20%
  • Closing Speed100%

Record

  • First-up

    4: 1-0-0

  • Second-up

    2: 1-0-0

  • Third-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Fourth-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Flemington

    2: 0-0-0

  • Track Pakenham

    1: 1-0-0

  • Track Rosehill

    3: 0-1-1

  • Distance 1100m

    2: 0-0-1

  • Distance 1200m

    4: 1-0-0

  • Distance 1250m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Heavy

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Soft

    5: 2-1-0

  • Going Good

    9: 0-0-2

Last starts

  1. 9Warwick Farm1600m21 Oct 2026 · 3UP BM72 HCP · GOOD43.73L
  2. 2Rosehill1400m14 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT61.94L
  3. 3Rosehill1300m30 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD42.77L
  4. 4Randwick Kensington1250m9 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD41.7L
  5. 5Warwick Farm1200m19 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT51.9L
  6. 3Rosehill1030m7 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)2.9L
  7. 8Rosehill1200m18 July 2026 · 3UP F&M BM78 HCP · HEAVY93.6L
  8. 1Scone1000m1 July 2026 · Barrier Trial · HEAVY(8)-0.4

Insights

  • Trainer Recent

    Negative

    Camp struggling with S/R just 3%

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -49% POT in their L100 Races

  • Trainer A2E

    Negative

    Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 43%

  • Trainer Form

    Negative

    Stable out of form, losing 50% Profit on Turnover

  • Blinkers Off

    Positive

    Blinkers coming off this start

  • Class Rise

    Negative

    Racing in stronger company

  • Long Prep

    Negative

    Yet to find the winners stall this prep

Comments

AAP

Ex Bjorn Baker in NSW. Got back and wasn't totally disgraced at Warwick Farm. New to Hawkesbury. Prefer to see.

ILB

Started $21.00 and finished 9th last time at Warwick Farm and up against a higher level of opposition. First start for a new trainer. Long shot.

RP

Not beaten too far when ninth of 14 at Warwick Farm last month in a handicap; yet to win a race of this value; now running for a new stable; facing a tougher assignment than last time, may be vulnerable.

RSIS

Odds of 20/1 and finished 9th last time at Warwick Farm and up against a higher level of opposition. First start for a new trainer.

Odds correct as at . Odds can change.

Past meetings

  • Tue 27 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 8 races
  • Thu 15 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 7 races
  • Thu 8 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 7 races
  • Thu 24 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 7 races
  • Thu 10 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 8 races
  • Sat 5 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 8 races