Shortest win price
Durban Harbour (3)
3.10
Welcome to Kyneton for race six on the program, featuring the Evolve Interiors Benchmark 66 Handicap over 1856 metres. Conditions are testing with a Heavy 8 track rating and ongoing showers setting the scene for a proper staying test. Looking at the win market order, Durban Harbour leads the betting lines, closely followed by Winter Nights, Governor King, and Weather Delay holding down the next line of the market. Punters sizing up the yarn will need to weigh how these runners handle the testing ground as the afternoon unfolds.
Durban Harbour comes in near the head of calculations for trainers J G Symons and S Laxon, partnered by Billy Egan who boasts strong recent riding metrics, though his latest run at Ballarat saw him finish fair without threatening. Weather Delay represents Robert Hickmott and lines up with a handy barrier one, having only been nailed late after dictating terms at Horsham over 1800 metres. Governor King for Henry Dwyer was freshened after running on into the minors for the minor money at Warrnambool on a heavy track, suggesting this distance and surface combination could suit its back-end style.
Down the market, Winter Nights for the Hayes stable brings a fast-finishing third at Kilmore over 1607 metres where it hit the line with purpose as a backmarker. Gregolimo maps well from barrier eight with early speed, while Who I Think I Am comes off a last-start victory and shares the on-pace speed group with other leaders like Hurco. It is a tricky contest where track conditions and early positions will dictate the result, giving punters plenty of angles to ponder before jumping into the race.
Shortest win price
Durban Harbour (3)
3.10
Most career wins
Ninyo
6-4-3 from 44 starts
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Offmidfield
Midfield
Onpace
Leader
Gregolimo · Positive
Maps Well
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 50%
Durban Harbour · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 28% in Last 100 Rides
His Finest Hour · Negative
Current SR
Rider’s recent POT is returning 35% lower than Career Avg.
Weather Delay · Positive
Hot J/T Combo
Combo are winning 26% POT in their L100 Races
Career
39: 4-8-6
Rating · IRD
91
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
8: 0-2-0
Second-up
6: 1-0-2
Third-up
6: 0-4-0
Fourth-up
4: 0-1-2
Track Wangaratta
1: 0-1-0
Track La Teste De Buch
2: 0-0-0
Track Colac
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1700m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1950m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2000m
20: 3-4-3
Going Heavy
1: 0-1-0
Going Soft
13: 1-0-2
Going Good
25: 3-7-4
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 50%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Went home tamely at Geelong off spell at $20. Fitter and second-up form generally better. Could give some cheek at odds.
ILB
Started $20.00 and couldn't maintain the pace when 8th last start at Geelong. Likely to bounce back. Displays good tactical speed. Definite winning chance.
RP
Not beaten too far when eighth of 12 over 1m½f at Geelong (handicap) two weeks ago; passed over in what appears to be a competitive contest.
RSIS
Started 19/1 and didn't find the line when 8th last start at Geelong. Expecting improvement here. Should come to hand quickly. Good prospects.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Offmidfield
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 125%
Trainer Form
Positive
In form stable, out performing market expectations 51%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 39% POT in L100 Runners
Tricky Map
Negative
Runners with this map, underperform market by 7%
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Raced in back half and was never in a position to mount a serious challenge this track. Not out of this.
ILB
Was $12.00 and couldn't stay in touch when 8th last time here.
RSIS
Started at 11/1 and couldn't stay in touch when 8th last start around here.
Career
19: 3-1-3
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
3: 0-0-1
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 1-0-1
Fourth-up
2: 0-1-0
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-0
Track Doomben
2: 0-0-0
Track Sunshine Coast
5: 1-0-2
Distance 1400m
3: 0-0-1
Distance 1640m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1650m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
7: 0-0-1
Going Heavy
2: 1-0-1
Going Soft
10: 2-1-1
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 28% in Last 100 Rides
Key Rider
Positive
Billy Egan 32% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Awkward Draw
Negative
May find this draw awkward
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Fair performance without threatening at Ballarat at $26. Others carry more punch.
ILB
Chased well when 5th last time at Ballarat. Winning potential.
RP
Not disgraced in fifth over 1m at Ballarat (handicap) 26 days ago; winning form over C&D; not the most consistent of horses lately; a lot on his plate here and others more likely.
RSIS
Chased well when 5th last run at Ballarat. Will show up at the business end.
Career
16: 3-2-2
Rating · IRD
93
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
3: 1-0-1
Second-up
2: 0-0-1
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Bendigo
1: 0-0-1
Track Swan Hill
1: 0-0-0
Track Wangaratta
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1550m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
10: 2-2-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-1
Going Soft
4: 1-0-1
Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 35% lower than Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -45% POT in their L100 Races
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 53% in L100 rides
Blinkers On
Positive
Trainer has opted for the Blinkers on, take note
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Lacked early speed and turn of foot at Swan Hill last outing. Deep into his campaign, capable of making an impact.
ILB
Backs up quickly. Jumped at $4.60 and didn't find the line when 7th last time at Swan Hill. Expected to rebound. Competitive type.
RP
Grade looks suitable; finished seventh but wasn't beaten too far (3½l) over 1m at Swan Hill (handicap) last Tuesday; strong claims.
RSIS
Backing up quickly for this race. At 7/2 didn't attack the line when 7th last time at Swan Hill. Happy to forgive that run. Can win this.
Career
8: 1-2-1
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
2: 1-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Flemington
1: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
2: 0-0-1
Track Kilmore
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1765m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1800m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1887m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
5: 1-1-0
Going Soft
3: 0-1-1
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Better for last start
Positive
Improved with last few runs
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Trailed pace and kicked strongly here last start for a second placed finish. Will take stopping in this company.
ILB
On a short turnaround. Disappointing outing when 18th last time at Flemington but drops back to a suitable class. Gets a favourable draw. Will have to carry more weight.
RP
Form has been a bit up and down of late; finished last of 18 over 1m2f at Flemington (handicap) yesterday; this is competitive and not one to rely on; was due to run at Flemington Tuesday.
RSIS
Racing on a quick back up. Fairly underwhelming when 18th last run at Flemington but matched against a less competitive field. Drawn by the rails. Rises in weight.
Career
19: 3-1-2
Rating · IRD
85
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
5: 0-0-0
Second-up
4: 0-1-1
Third-up
4: 2-0-0
Fourth-up
3: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat
4: 1-0-0
Track Flemington
1: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
5: 2-0-0
Distance 1525m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
12: 1-1-2
Going Soft
3: 1-0-0
Going Synthetic
4: 1-0-0
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are winning 26% POT in their L100 Races
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Blinkers Off
Positive
Blinkers coming off this start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Only nailed late after dictating at Horsham. On pacer, perfect gate. Warrants attention.
ILB
Maintained a solid pace but eventually weakened to finish 3rd last start at Horsham and drawn the rails. Expecting to settle positively. Blinkers go off for the first time. Has some claims.
RP
Not beaten far at Horsham over 1m1f (handicap) last month.
RSIS
Faded in the late stages of the race when 3rd last run at Horsham and has minimal work to do from the draw. Blinkers go off for the first time. Respect the betting.
Career
24: 4-2-4
Rating · IRD
90
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
4: 1-0-0
Second-up
3: 0-0-2
Third-up
3: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
3: 1-0-0
Track Warrnambool
5: 0-0-2
Track Seymour
4: 1-1-0
Track Swan Hill
1: 0-0-1
Distance 2046m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
3: 1-0-0
Distance 1500m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
4: 0-2-1
Going Heavy
8: 2-0-2
Going Soft
12: 2-0-1
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 6%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 36%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 44% Profit on Turnover
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 48%
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Ready To Strike
Positive
Can be rewarded for recent consistent form
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Freshened. Winner too strong but ran on for the minors at Warrnambool. Has some claims.
ILB
Honest race when 3rd last run at Warrnambool on a heavy surface. Can go through the gears. Can measure up against these.
RP
Comfortably beaten finishing third with blinkers tried (Warrnambool) when dropped in distance over 1m½f (handicap) last month; looks likely to go well.
RSIS
Ran 3rd last run at Warrnambool. Should be swooping on the field late. Will go close.
Career
44: 6-4-3
Rating · IRD
72
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
6: 1-2-0
Second-up
5: 0-0-1
Third-up
5: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
4: 0-0-0
Track Wangaratta
1: 0-0-0
Track Colac
1: 0-1-0
Track Wodonga
2: 0-1-1
Distance 2400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1017m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
17: 1-2-3
Going Good
13: 0-1-0
Going Heavy
14: 5-1-0
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 75%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 48%
Well beaten LS
Negative
Not competitive last run
AAP
Settled back and didn't figure on a soft deck over longer test in the 3yo+ (Bm66) at Sale. Coming back in distance. Hard to warm to here.
ILB
At $31.00 unsatisfactory performance when 8th last run at Sale. Hard to recommend.
RP
Could not manage better than eighth over 1m3f at Sale (handicap) last month; meeting some horses in good form and one to tread carefully with.
RSIS
Odds of 30/1 and mediocre display when 8th last start at Sale.
Career
5: 1-0-1
Rating · IRD
89
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
2: 1-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Sale
1: 0-0-0
Track Echuca
1: 1-0-0
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1412m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1607m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
5: 1-0-1
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 19% in Last 100 Rides
Jockey Booking
Positive
Damian Lane 35% above market expected in L100 Rides
Hot Trainer
Positive
Ben, Will & Jd Hayes in good form, out performing market 52%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 39% POT in L100 Runners
Key Jockey
Positive
Damian Lane winning at 12% POT in last 100 rides
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 48%
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Outgunned but did enough for third at $12 at Kilmore when second-up. Usually gets back. Could get into the placings.
ILB
Improved to place when 3rd last time at Kilmore but taking on stronger rivals. Will be hitting the line strongly. Suited by the weight drop. Strong contender.
RP
Not beaten too far when third at Kilmore 22 days ago upped to 1m; no surprise to see him go well.
RSIS
Showed a good turn of foot when 3rd beaten by 4L last start at Kilmore but up against tougher competition. Will be motoring home late. Carrying less weight this time. Strong claims in this.
Career
6: 1-0-0
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Leader
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Seymour
1: 0-0-0
Track Wangaratta
2: 0-0-0
Track Colac
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1606m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1312m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
5: 1-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Weight Drop
Positive
Drops 5.5kg from LS run
AAP
Handily placed but lacked the necessary pick-up and battled to line at Wangaratta. Rise to 1856m a new challenge. One for multiples.
ILB
Was $10.00 and ran 7th last start at Wangaratta and competing in a higher grade. Should be going forward early. Goes down in weight. This won't be easy.
RP
Not disgraced in seventh over 1m at Wangaratta (handicap) nine days ago; the stable is going well; knows how to win so in with a shout.
RSIS
Started 9/1 and came in 7th last time at Wangaratta and stepping up to a higher level. Won't be far away during the run. Gets some weight taken off.
Career
7: 1-3-0
Rating · IRD
74
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Third-up
1: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Newcastle
1: 0-0-0
Track Gosford
2: 0-0-0
Track Tatura
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
2: 0-2-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
4: 1-2-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-1-0
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Pushed forward and found enough to score as a $4.40 chance at Warrnambool. Carleen Hefel on again. Big show.
ILB
Was much too speedy in front when winning by a margin of 1/2L last time at Warrnambool and has a good draw. Has early speed and positions nicely. Hard to see it being good enough.
RP
Signs of improvement on last two runs; opened account at the seventh attempt when winning by half a length last month (Warrnambool) in a maiden; despite that Warrnambool success, looks risky.
RSIS
Was much too pacey in front when winning by 1/2L last time at Warrnambool and can find a nice position from the draw. Should muster plenty of early pace.