Shortest win price
Novalargo (3)
2.00
Welcome to Launceston for the Adam Trinder Hcp (C2) over 1200m on a Good 4 track under fine skies, set to jump at 7:30 pm AEDT. Punters eyeing the early win market will find Novalargo leading the charge at the top of the betting order, closely followed by Dubai Affair, Get 'Em Warrior, and Vortistar rounding out the early faves in this competitive class two affair.
Taking a closer look at the form behind those shorter prices, Novalargo jumps from barrier one with Codi Jordan steering for G J Stevenson. This runner comes in following a strong second over 1100m at this venue and boasts an unbeaten second-up record, making a solid case in this company. Meanwhile, stablemate Dubai Affair lines up for trainer Adam Trinder from barrier nine under Erica Byrne Burke, resuming off a twenty-eight-week break after taking out a Longford trial back in October, and the stable is currently firing well above market expectations.
Down the market order, other angles emerge from the speed map and runner histories. Genuine Lady is expected to use early speed from barrier seven to take up the running, while Vortistar brings a win at this track and distance fresh previously, drawing barrier ten for the in-form Adam Trinder combination. With speed groups well scattered across the field, punters are in for a cracking race tonight.
Shortest win price
Novalargo (3)
2.00
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Midfield
Offpace
Onpace
Leader
Noble · Positive
Fast Finisher
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Vortistar · Positive
Hot J/T Combo
Combo are out performing market expectations by 96%
Novalargo · Positive
Rider SR
Jockey recent POT is 14% better than Career Avg.
Dubai Affair · Positive
Hot Trainer
Adam Trinder in good form, out performing market 30%
Career
6: 1-0-0
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 1-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
2: 1-0-0
Track Hobart
2: 0-0-0
Track Scone
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
4: 1-0-0
Distance 1220m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1390m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
6: 1-0-0
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -27% POT in their L100 Races
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 28%
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Track Stats
Positive
Excels at this track
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Let down with a raking drive to get up in final bounds this venue second-up. Sharper now, could add some value to exotics.
ILB
Displayed a good turn of foot when winning last run at this venue. This looks a tough assignment.
RP
Off the mark at the sixth time of asking scoring narrowly 14 days ago in a maiden; has kicked on in his last couple of races; no surprise to see him go well.
RSIS
Was eating up the ground late when winning last start at the track.
Career
11: 2-2-1
Rating · IRD
85
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
3: 1-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Launceston
7: 2-2-1
Track CurrentTrack
7: 2-2-1
Track Warracknabeal
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
4: 1-2-0
Distance 1400m
4: 1-0-1
Distance 1420m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
4: 0-1-0
Going Soft
7: 2-1-1
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 96%
Stable In Form
Positive
Stable going well. Out performing market by 30%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 11% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 16%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Remains fresh. Terrific from the wide gate this track off long break. On pacer. Poised to deliver another big performance.
ILB
Dictated the tempo when winning by a margin of 1/2L last start around here. Large claim helps. Can win this.
RP
Narrow success in a handicap when back to this distance four weeks ago; could have a say.
RSIS
Went to the front and never looked back to win by 1/2L last start at the track. Akimasa Phanthura takes a large claim. Has strong claims.
Career
9: 2-2-2
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Leader
First-up
3: 0-1-1
Second-up
1: 1-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Devonport Synthetic
1: 0-0-1
Track Hobart
1: 0-0-0
Track Launceston
7: 2-2-1
Distance 1150m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
3: 1-1-0
Distance 1220m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
4: 1-1-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
4: 1-1-1
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 14% better than Career Avg.
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Couldn't quite peg back winner this venue after lengthy absence. Unbeaten second-up. Course suits. Makes a strong case in this company.
ILB
Did well to run into 2nd last run at this track and has drawn to do little work. Codi Jordan takes the reins today. Should muster plenty of early toe. Tough competitor.
RP
Consistent lately; ran well when beaten half a length here over 5½f (handicap) three weeks ago; she's a serious player.
RSIS
Finished well when 2nd beaten by 1/2L last run at the track and drawn the rails. Should muster plenty of early toe. Codi Jordan rates highly. Strong competitor.
Career
12: 2-2-3
Rating · IRD
79
Speed map
Leader
First-up
4: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 1-0-1
Third-up
2: 1-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Hobart
2: 0-0-0
Track Launceston
9: 2-2-3
Track CurrentTrack
9: 2-2-3
Distance 1200m
6: 2-1-2
Distance 1220m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
3: 1-1-0
Going Soft
8: 1-1-3
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Hot Trainer
Positive
Adam Trinder in good form, out performing market 30%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 11% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 16%
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Up In Dist
Positive
Racing at a more suitable distance
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
First-up (28-weeks). Since won Longford trial 20 Oct. Has a tricky draw for return. Has some claims fresh in this company.
ILB
First up from a spell of 28 weeks. Jumped at $10.00 and peaked towards the finish when 5th last time here. Not at all out of this race.
RP
Split a number of these rivals when finishing a close-up fifth in April; returns from a layoff; others more persuasive as this looks a decent race.
RSIS
Back from a break of 28 weeks. Odds of 9/1 and lost ground when 5th last time at this track. Watch for a sign in the market.
Career
14: 1-3-2
Rating · IRD
75
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
3: 0-0-1
Second-up
2: 0-1-1
Third-up
2: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-1-0
Track Hobart
6: 1-2-0
Track Sale
1: 0-0-0
Track Launceston
4: 0-1-1
Distance 1100m
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1150m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
2: 0-1-0
Going Synthetic
3: 0-0-1
Going Good
6: 0-3-1
Going Soft
5: 1-0-0
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 37% better than Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Positive
Kelvin Sanderson 40% above market expected in L100 Rides
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 22%
Form At Track
Negative
Yet to win here
Gap In Runs
Negative
Not raced for 35 days
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Freshened. Gave good account Hcp (C1) this venue when drifting in the betting. Looks up against it.
ILB
Started $13.00 and made some ground when 4th last time around here. Take on trust.
RP
Poor strike-rate; respectable fourth over 7f here (handicap) last month; yard has been going through a quiet spell; others appeal more as regularly been coming up a bit short lately.
RSIS
Started 12/1 and improved when 4th last time at this track.
Career
12: 2-2-0
Rating · IRD
72
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
3: 0-1-0
Second-up
2: 1-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Hobart
3: 0-0-0
Track Launceston
6: 2-1-0
Track CurrentTrack
6: 2-1-0
Distance 1200m
4: 1-1-0
Distance 1350m
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1390m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
6: 0-1-0
Going Synthetic
3: 0-1-0
Going Good
3: 2-0-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Turned on the speed and fended off challengers to narrowly prevail this track 16 Oct. Can go forward. All the better, can again play a role.
ILB
Set the pace to win by a margin of a nose last start here and on an upward trajectory in recent races. Needs significant improvement.
RP
Narrow scorer in a handicap 14 days ago; looks likely to go well.
RSIS
Made all to win by a nose last run at the track and on an upward trajectory in recent races. In the top three at every start recently.
Career
22: 2-3-2
Rating · IRD
76
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
5: 0-0-0
Second-up
4: 1-1-1
Third-up
4: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Hobart
4: 0-0-0
Track Launceston
6: 0-2-1
Track CurrentTrack
6: 0-2-1
Distance 1200m
5: 0-1-0
Distance 1350m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
8: 0-2-1
Going Synthetic
12: 2-1-1
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 22% in Last 100 Rides
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 6%
Key Rider
Positive
Sam Kennedy 48% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 29%
Hot Jockey
Positive
Sam Kennedy in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 48%
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
AAP
Resuming (13-weeks). Long losing streak. Not pushed out Longford trial 20 Oct. Looks a risk fresh.
ILB
Fresh from a break. Odds of $13.00 and couldn't maintain the pace when 9th last run at Devonport Synthetic but gets a favourable draw. Do not dismiss entirely.
RP
Finished last of nine in a conditions race (Devonport) three months ago; form has been up and down of late and achieved each of his two career wins at Devonport; this looks a decent race so others appeal more.
RSIS
Resuming after break. Started 12/1 and faded away to finish 9th last start at Devonport Synthetic but has a positive stall.
Career
17: 2-1-0
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
4: 1-0-0
Second-up
3: 1-1-0
Third-up
3: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Devonport Synthetic
3: 0-0-0
Track Launceston
14: 2-1-0
Track CurrentTrack
14: 2-1-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
4: 0-0-0
Distance 1150m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
7: 0-1-0
Going Soft
7: 2-0-0
Going Synthetic
3: 0-0-0
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Increased Dist
Positive
Distance rise from last start
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
First-up (33-weeks). Consistent through last prep. Brought on with two trial hitouts and has won first-up. Can make his presence felt fresh in this affair.
ILB
First up and flew home to win first up last preparation around here. Likely to settle back in the field. This will be a test.
RP
Fair effort when beaten just over 3l, finishing sixth of ten in March; layoff to overcome; makes limited appeal in what appears to be a competitive contest.
RSIS
Resuming and picked up nicely to win resuming last preparation at this track. Likely to settle back in the field.
Career
31: 2-5-8
Rating · IRD
76
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
5: 0-1-1
Second-up
4: 0-0-1
Third-up
4: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
3: 0-0-2
Track Hobart
8: 1-2-2
Track Launceston
20: 1-3-6
Track CurrentTrack
20: 1-3-6
Distance 1200m
18: 2-4-6
Distance 1220m
4: 0-0-1
Distance 1350m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
12: 0-3-3
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
15: 2-2-5
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 11%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 24%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 28%
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Increased Dist
Positive
Distance rise from last start
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Winkers Off
Positive
Winkers coming off this start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Resuming (28-weeks). Wasn't extended in latest Longford trial 20 Oct. One for exotics fresh in this company.
ILB
Resumes after a spell of 28 weeks. Started $7.50 and mediocre attempt when 8th last time here. Gets back and needs luck. Watching with interest.
RP
An infrequent winner; behind four of these in April; back from an absence here; been struggling to get her head in front recently so unlikely to trouble the principals.
RSIS
Resuming after a break of 28 weeks. Started 13/2 and mediocre attempt when 8th last start at the track. Expected to settle towards the tail.
Career
8: 1-1-0
Rating · IRD
78
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
3: 0-1-0
Second-up
2: 1-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
4: 1-1-0
Track Hobart
4: 0-0-0
Track Launceston
4: 1-1-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1120m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
5: 1-1-0
Going Soft
3: 0-0-0
Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 53% lower than Career Avg.
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 64% in L100 rides
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Increased Dist
Positive
Distance rise from last start
Improver
Positive
Poised to improve on recent form here
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
First-up (24-weeks). Capable fresh and trialled well for return. Good gate and form encouraging this track. Not out of this fresh in this company.
ILB
First up after a break. At $9.00 was found wanting late when 5th last run at Hobart. Best to watch only.
RP
Not disgraced in fifth at Hobart six months ago; returns from an absence here; passed over given many of her rivals are in good form.
RSIS
Had a break from racing and returns to competition. Started 8/1 and peaked on the run when 5th last run at Hobart.
Career
22: 2-1-4
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
5: 0-0-1
Second-up
3: 0-0-0
Third-up
3: 0-1-1
Fourth-up
3: 0-0-1
Track Warrnambool
1: 0-0-0
Track Launceston
8: 1-0-2
Track CurrentTrack
8: 1-0-2
Distance 1009m
3: 1-0-1
Distance 1100m
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1112m
1: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
10: 1-1-2
Going Good
9: 1-0-1
Going Soft
3: 0-0-1
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 30%
Needs To Imp
Negative
Finished towards the tail last start
Drawn Poorly
Negative
Unfavourable barrier draw
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Settled back and didn't figure off spell in the Hcp (C2) this track. Others carry more punch.
ILB
Started $19.00 and below expectations when 7th last time around here.
RP
Held in seventh over 5½f here (handicap, behind Novalargo) three weeks ago; may have to settle for supporting role with this looking like a hot contest; also engaged in race 7 at Launceston.
RSIS
At 18/1 mediocre display when 7th last time at the track.