Shortest win price
Beneficiary (4)
2.10
Welcome to Launceston for race number eight on the card, the Ken Hallet (Bm76) over the 1600m on a Good 4 surface with fine weather overhead at the 9:00 pm AEDT jump. It is time for punters to dive into the yarn of this benchmark race, where the win market is currently led by Beneficiary, with Coal River, Thickskinned, Tuskegee, Stone Cold Stunner, Shy Guy, and Zulu Angel following in that order. Let us see how this tactical puzzle shapes up under the lights tonight.
Taking a closer look at the form behind the shorter prices, Beneficiary brings a stellar profile for Barry Campbell with Anthony Darmanin in the saddle from barrier seven, boasting five wins from seven starts and a strong first-up win record. Coal River jumps from barrier four with Erica Byrne Burke steering for Angela Brakey, coming off a let-up following a Hobart win and a subsequent Devonport effort. Meanwhile, Tuskegee for Barry Campbell and Sam Kennedy maps on pace from barrier three after narrowly missing over this track and distance last time out.
For punters hunting further down the win market or looking at sectional angles, Thickskinned offers an intriguing case from barrier five for trainer M A Ganderton and Troy Baker, having scored powerfully over this exact 1600m course at its latest outing with the fastest overall finishing sectionals. With early speed expected from runners like Beneficiary, Stone Cold Stunner, and Tuskegee, plus Thickskinned looming off midfield to launch a late raid, this contest sets up as a cracking betting heat to wrap up the evening.
Shortest win price
Beneficiary (4)
2.10
Most career wins
Stone Cold Stunner
10-3-5 from 36 starts
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Midfield
Offpace
Onpace
Leader
Zulu Angel · Negative
Rider
Negative rider change today
Coal River · Positive
Hot J/T Combo
Combo are out performing market expectations by 208%
Shy Guy · Positive
Rider SR
Jockey recent POT is 37% better than Career Avg.
Beneficiary · Positive
Maps Well
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 28%
Career
48: 8-11-3
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
6: 0-1-0
Second-up
4: 0-1-1
Third-up
4: 2-1-0
Fourth-up
4: 2-1-0
Track Hobart
15: 2-4-3
Track Bendigo
1: 0-0-0
Track Moonee Valley
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1620m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1800m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2020m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
29: 7-3-3
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
12: 0-7-0
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 22%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 19% Profit on Turnover
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Form 3rd Up
Positive
Has won 2 from 4 when third up
AAP
Ordinary performance in small field this venue off extended spell. Hard to warm to here.
ILB
Odds of $81.00 and inched into 5th last run at this venue and has drawn to do little work. Might be ridden for luck. Robyn Lynch provides some weight relief. Risky betting proposition.
RP
A winner over C&D; not beaten that far in fifth (4½l) here over 7f (handicap) two weeks ago when just behind Shy Guy; trainer has been going through a quiet spell; a lot on his plate here and not one to rely on.
RSIS
Odds of 80/1 and ran on into 5th last start at this venue and drawn well. Expected to settle towards the rear. Robyn Lynch provides some weight relief.
Career
16: 6-2-1
Rating · IRD
93
Speed map
Leader
First-up
4: 1-1-1
Second-up
2: 1-0-0
Third-up
2: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Launceston
4: 2-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
4: 2-0-0
Track Horsham
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1100m
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1200m
5: 2-0-0
Distance 1350m
2: 1-0-0
Going Good
7: 1-2-0
Going Soft
4: 4-0-0
Going Synthetic
5: 1-0-1
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 208%
Stable In Form
Positive
Stable going well. Out performing market by 69%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 50% POT in L100 Runners
Tricky Map
Negative
Runners with this map, underperform market by 5%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Track Stats
Positive
Excels at this track
Fresh
Positive
Freshened up. Had a break of 42-60 days
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Let-up (58-days). Won (Bm68) Hobart 19 Aug. Dropped off the lead at Devonport Synthetic. Will be out to make amends.
ILB
Freshened up. Jumped at $2.50 and weakened to finish 5th last start at Devonport Synthetic. Overlooking the last run but will have to carry more weight. Will show up at the business end.
RP
Not beaten that far in fifth (3½l, Devonport) last month; has won here before; brings winning form to the table and warrants respect.
RSIS
Freshened for this. Started at 6/4 and folded up in the straight when 5th last run at Devonport Synthetic. Giving another go here. Erica Byrne Burke rates highly. Will be fighting out the finish.
Career
38: 7-7-4
Rating · IRD
87
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
5: 0-1-0
Second-up
4: 0-1-1
Third-up
4: 1-0-1
Fourth-up
3: 1-0-0
Track Toowoomba
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
9: 2-3-0
Track Eagle Farm
4: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1220m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1350m
2: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
11: 2-1-0
Going Synthetic
7: 3-2-0
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 37% better than Career Avg.
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 28%
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
AAP
Devonport Synthetic winner two back. Unable to make an impression this venue. A distance specialist. Right in this with even luck.
ILB
Was $8.50 and ran 4th last start at the track. Looking for an improved run. Kelvin Sanderson and Barry Campbell have a high strike rate together. Goes well and could be a value opportunity.
RP
Not beaten that far over 7f here (handicap) when dropped in distance; closely matched with Zulu Angel on that running two weeks ago; suited by this C&D; facing a testing assignment and others are preferred.
RSIS
Started 15/2 and ran 4th last run around here. Capable of a strong comeback. Kelvin Sanderson and Barry Campbell make an imposing pair. Should not be left out of your thoughts.
Career
7: 5-2-0
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Leader
First-up
1: 1-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Third-up
1: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Hobart
1: 1-0-0
Track Launceston
6: 4-2-0
Track CurrentTrack
6: 4-2-0
Distance 1400m
4: 2-2-0
Distance 1420m
2: 2-0-0
Distance 1600m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
3: 2-1-0
Going Soft
4: 3-1-0
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 28%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Track Stats
Positive
Excels at this track
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
In Form
Positive
Racing in top form recently
AAP
Back for second campaign (30-weeks). 100% win-place strike rate. Big win in Maiden company Launceston last time first-up while trialling well in the lead-up. Makes strong appeal fresh in this company.
ILB
First up from a spell of 30 weeks. Was strong late when 2nd last time at this track. Has early speed and positions nicely. Tough competitor.
RP
Just denied here over 7f (conditions race) in April; returns from a break today; leading contender.
RSIS
Resuming after a break of 30 weeks. Claimed a spot in the top three when 2nd beaten by 3/4L last time at this venue. Has early pace and positions nicely. Will go close.
Career
12: 5-1-0
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
3: 2-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-1-0
Third-up
2: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 1-0-0
Track Hobart
1: 1-0-0
Track Launceston
5: 1-1-0
Track CurrentTrack
5: 1-1-0
Distance 1400m
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1420m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
2: 1-1-0
Going Good
4: 1-1-0
Going Soft
2: 1-0-0
Going Synthetic
6: 3-0-0
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 28%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
1st Up S/R
Positive
Has won 2 from 3 when resuming
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
First-up (28-weeks). Consistent recent preparation. Handy fresh horse while brought on by 3 trials. Worth a look fresh in this affair.
ILB
Has a good record first up. At $3.10 average effort when 4th last time at the track and rising in weight.
RP
A course winner; grade looks suitable; not disgraced when fourth over 7f here (handicap) in April; returning from a layoff here; must go on the shortlist if duplicating the form of his most recent win.
RSIS
Goes well when resuming. Odds of 11/5 and below par when 4th last time at this track and will have to carry more weight.
Career
36: 10-3-5
Rating · IRD
84
Speed map
Leader
First-up
5: 0-1-1
Second-up
4: 0-0-1
Third-up
4: 1-1-0
Fourth-up
4: 3-0-0
Track Mornington
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham
1: 0-0-1
Track Benalla
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1350m
4: 2-0-0
Distance 1380m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
12: 5-1-1
Going Good
16: 6-1-3
Going Soft
12: 1-1-2
Going Synthetic
8: 3-1-0
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 61%
Tricky Map
Negative
Runners with this map, underperform market by 5%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Posted a hard fought win this venue. Tactical speed, inside draw. Has claims for a repeat.
ILB
Charged home to win last run at the track and has a positive draw. Has shown early pace in races to date. Competing at a higher class. Value play.
RP
Narrow winner of a handicap 21 days ago; winning form over C&D; despite that Launceston success, others more likely.
RSIS
Finished well when winning last start at the track and has a positive stall. Jockey Kirra Lee Lane and trainer Glenn Stevenson go well together. Competing in a higher grade. Forward showing expected.
Career
24: 6-6-5
Rating · IRD
80
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
3: 0-2-1
Second-up
2: 1-0-0
Third-up
2: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Devonport Synthetic
12: 5-4-3
Track Hobart
1: 0-0-0
Track Launceston
11: 1-2-2
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1400m
4: 1-0-1
Distance 2100m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
6: 0-1-0
Going Soft
6: 1-1-2
Going Synthetic
12: 5-4-3
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 22% in Last 100 Rides
Jockey Booking
Positive
Sam Kennedy 48% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Hot Jockey
Positive
Sam Kennedy in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 48%
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Ready To Strike
Positive
Can be rewarded for recent consistent form
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Just failed to repel challengers after leading this venue over this distance. On pacer. Among the dangers again.
ILB
Just missed last start here but competing in a more challenging class. In a purple patch of form since coming back from a break and gets some weight relief. Could feature here.
RP
Respectable display to finish runner-up, beaten a nose three weeks ago; has won here before.
RSIS
Right in contention last start at the track but testing ability against stronger contenders. In a purple patch of form lately and suited by the weight drop.
Career
11: 3-1-2
Rating · IRD
76
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
3: 0-1-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-1
Third-up
2: 2-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Hobart
2: 0-0-0
Track Launceston
5: 2-0-1
Track CurrentTrack
5: 2-0-1
Distance 1150m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1350m
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1400m
2: 0-0-1
Going Good
2: 1-0-0
Going Soft
5: 1-0-1
Going Synthetic
4: 1-1-1
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Consistent
Positive
Showing up at the business end
Down In Weight
Positive
Drops 5kg from LS run
AAP
Won after racing back and let down powerfully this course over this trip. Course suits. Capable of figuring again.
ILB
Reeled them in when winning last run around here but competing at a higher level of competition. Been in the placegetters each attempt this campaign. Hard to see it being good enough.
RP
Has achieved three wins from 11 career runs; scored by just over 2l 21 days ago; despite that Launceston success, passed over.
RSIS
Displayed a good turn of foot when winning last start at the track but up against tougher rivals. Been in the placings each attempt recently.