Muswellbrook (NSW) horses tips & previews

8 Nov, 1:03 am AEDT

One race at a time: field, form guide and win/place odds for Muswellbrook (NSW), with capture times on every price.

Meeting — Tue 3 Nov, 11:00 am AEDT

Meetings · Tue, 3 NovMuswellbrook (NSW)Change

Race 3 — Hollydene Estate Wines (Bm58) 1750m · jumps Tue 3 Nov, 2:40 pm AEDT

Race preview

Welcome to Muswellbrook for race three, the Hollydene Estate Wines Benchmark 58 Handicap over the 1750m trip. The track is rated a soft six under fine skies, setting up an intriguing battle over a middle distance. Looking at the early win market order, punters have zeroed in on Roses Imminente as the one to beat, closely followed by Grafology and Wizard's Star. Right behind them in the betting ring sit Autumn Heir and Alideel, while Pappiana and Rebel's Edge round out the remaining runners in the market. It is shaping up as a fascinating tactical affair on this surface once they step out onto the course.

Taking a closer look at the form lines behind those shorter prices, Roses Imminente comes here following a fair effort at Randwick over the mile after putting in a strong runner-up performance at this track prior. Lou Mary trains this backmarker who might appreciate getting the right breaks in running. Grafology, another runner from the Lou Mary yard with Andrew Gibbons in the saddle, broke her maiden nicely at Tamworth before working home late from the back when finishing fourth at Orange over 1600m. Meanwhile, Autumn Heir resumes from a spell for trainer K A Lees after failing to fire at Port Macquarie, though the stablemate is expected to strip fitter second-up and holds an affinity for some juice in the track.

Digging deeper into the race dynamics, Alideel maps to head straight to the front as the designated leader, which could give Grant Buckley every chance dictating terms if left alone out on the speed. Further down the order, Wizard's Star from the Edward Cummings stable is backing up quickly following a midfield finish at Hawkesbury over 1800m. While the barrier and overall consistency leave plenty to ponder, punters hunting value might weigh up whether these softer track conditions and staying distances can spark improvement as the afternoon unfolds.

Race notes

BM58,BM58 HCP,Benchmark 58
SOFT6
Fine
7 runners

Shortest win price

Grafology (8)

2.90

Most career wins

Rebel's Edge

7-11-5 from 70 starts

Speed map

Back left · leaders right

Backmarker

2Roses Imminente

Offmidfield

7Pappiana

Midfield

5Wizard's Star
8Grafology

Offpace

3Autumn Heir

Onpace

1Rebel's Edge

Leader

6Alideel

Rebel's Edge · Negative
Jockey Booking
Liberty Smyth current POT is 34% below Career Avg.
Roses Imminente · Positive
Map Suits
Suitable Map, where runners in this position outperform market by 4%
Autumn Heir · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Wizard's Star · Positive
Rider SR
Jockey recent POT is 23% better than Career Avg.

No.RunnerBarWgtLast 5WinPlace

1Rebel's EdgeJ: Liberty Smyth·T: J A Sylvester161kg5 7 4 7 1070: 7-11-5$12.00$4.00

Career

70: 7-11-5

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer20%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating40%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
9: 0-1-1
Second-up
8: 1-3-0
Third-up
8: 1-2-0
Fourth-up
8: 0-1-0
Track Rosehill
3: 0-1-0
Track Randwick
2: 0-0-0
Track Eagle Farm
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
21: 2-2-3
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1450m
3: 1-0-1
Going Good
29: 2-2-3
Going Heavy
11: 3-1-1
Going Soft
29: 2-8-1

Last starts

10Muswellbrook1500m19 Oct 2026 · Benchmark 66 · GOOD47.81L
7Muswellbrook1450m5 Oct 2026 · Benchmark 66 · GOOD47.41L
4Barraba1400m19 Sept 2026 · BARRABACUP BM759.1L
7Scone1600m1 Sept 2026 · BM66 · SOFT58.6L
5Narromine1600m23 Aug 2026 · BM84 · HEAVY88.8L
2Muswellbrook1500m9 Aug 2026 · BM66 · GOOD40.7L
10Muswellbrook1280m26 July 2026 · BENGALLA BM87 · GOOD44.8L
11Tamworth1600m13 Feb 2026 · BM74 · SOFT512.1L

Insights

Jockey Booking
Negative
Liberty Smyth current POT is 34% below Career Avg.
Trainer SR
Negative
Jeremy Sylvester striking at just 2%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 63%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 65% Profit on Turnover
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 33% in L100 rides
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out

Comments

AAP

Failed to threaten this track at longer odds and keener on others.

ILB

At $26.00 below standard effort when 10th last time at this track but has minimal work to do from the alley. Not dismissing.

Behind Pappiana over 7½f here (handicap) when last of ten last month; has won here previously; has shown glimpses of ability recently and should be on the premises.

RSIS

Started 25/1 and disappointing effort when 10th last time at the track but will appreciate a good stall.

2Roses ImminenteJ: Jake Pracey-Holmes·T: Lou Mary760.5kg2 3 5 2 818: 3-3-1$3.40$1.80

Career

18: 3-3-1

Rating · IRD

100

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo60%
Early Speed100%
Rating100%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
4: 1-0-1
Second-up
3: 0-1-0
Third-up
3: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 1-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
3: 0-1-0
Track Rosehill
2: 0-0-0
Track Taree
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1263m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1280m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
10: 2-2-1
Going Heavy
2: 1-0-0
Going Soft
6: 0-1-0

Last starts

8Randwick1600m24 Oct 2026 · 3UP CL3 HCP · GOOD43.84L
2Muswellbrook1450m5 Oct 2026 · Benchmark 66 · GOOD42.54L
5Taree1263m22 Sept 2026 · CL3 BM66 · SOFT66.1L
3Scone1100m9 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)6.5L
2Scone1600m20 Mar 2026 · BM66 · SOFT51.5L
1Scone1000m11 Mar 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)-0.4
8Scone1600m24 Feb 2026 · Benchmark 58 · SOFT57.5L
17Rosehill1500m31 Jan 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD46.1L

Insights

Map Suits
Positive
Suitable Map, where runners in this position outperform market by 4%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Weight Increase
Negative
Rises 6.5kg now

Comments

AAP

Performance just fair at Randwick at $51. Can make her presence felt if she gets the breaks.

ILB

Finished 8th last run at Randwick. Should improve here and will find this grade more suitable. Jockey Jake Pracey Holmes is a plus. Must respect.

Useful at this level; not disgraced in eighth over 1m at Randwick (handicap) last month; every chance.

RSIS

Finished 8th last time at Randwick. Happy to forgive that run and has been racing in stronger company. Jake Pracey Holmes is a bonus. One of the punters top hopes.

3Autumn HeirJ: Liam Riordan·T: K A Lees358.5kg6 8 6 3 1121: 2-2-2$5.50$2.50

Career

21: 2-2-2

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed20%
Rating60%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
4: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-1
Third-up
2: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
2: 1-0-0
Track Scone
1: 0-0-0
Track Grafton
1: 0-0-1
Track Newcastle
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1425m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1609m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1700m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
10: 0-1-2
Going Heavy
3: 0-0-0
Going Soft
8: 2-1-0

Last starts

11Port Macquarie1800m10 Oct 2026 · BM58 · GOOD47.08L
3Newcastle1200m23 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)4L
6Wyong1000m10 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)8L
8Gosford800m31 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)8.2L
6Tamworth2100m15 June 2026 · BM66 · SOFT57.3L
5Scone1700m9 June 2026 · BM58 · SOFT64L
5Newcastle1870m23 May 2026 · Benchmark 68 · HEAVY93.8L
4Ipswich2150m9 May 2026 · BM58 · GOOD41.2L

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Well back and never a factor at Port Macquarie off spell. Will be fitter second-up. Likes some juice in the track and makes strong appeal.

ILB

Odds of $6.00 and didn't attack the line when 11th last time at Port Macquarie. Expecting improvement here. Winning chance.

Towards the rear of 13 when dropped to this trip (Port Macquarie) three weeks ago; easy to see him making an impression if finding his best form.

RSIS

Was 5/1 and faded to finish 11th last time at Port Macquarie. Should improve from the last run. Will go close today.

4FarraigeScratched5––––

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey50%
Trainer40%
Jockey/Trainer Combo50%
Early Speed50%
Rating50%
Closing Speed100%

Comments

AAP

Settled back and didn't figure in the (Bm58) at Port Macquarie. Only for multiples.

ILB

Odds of $7.00 and ran 8th last time at Port Macquarie.

RSIS

At 6/1 finished 8th last time at Port Macquarie.

5Wizard's StarJ: Ben Looker·T: Edward Cummings558.5kg3 6 3 6 615: 0-0-4$5.00$2.35

Career

15: 0-0-4

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer40%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating60%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-1
Third-up
2: 0-0-2
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Bathurst
1: 0-0-0
Track Newcastle
4: 0-0-0
Track Randwick Kensington
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1500m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1900m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 2100m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
9: 0-0-2
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
5: 0-0-2

Last starts

6Hawkesbury1800m27 Oct 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD45.46L
6Newcastle1850m18 Sept 2026 · 3UP CL1-SW · GOOD35.61L
3Randwick Kensington1800m9 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD41.2L
6Kembla Grange1600m15 Aug 2026 · Maiden · GOOD43.5L
3Hawkesbury2000m19 July 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT65.6L
3Hawkesbury1600m2 July 2026 · MDN-SW · SOFT71.8L
5Bathurst1400m16 June 2026 · MDN-SW · HEAVY99.9L
4Rosehill900m11 May 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)4L

Insights

Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 23% better than Career Avg.
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 6%
Jockey Booking
Positive
Ben Looker 32% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 32%
Hot Jockey
Positive
Ben Looker in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 32%
Ideal Map
Positive
Map position exceeding market by 4%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit

Comments

AAP

On a short back-up. Went home tamely at Hawkesbury at $20. Deep into his campaign, capable of making an impact.

ILB

Backing up quickly for this race. Was $20.00 and came in 6th last start at Hawkesbury. Happy to overlook that run. Good chance and definitely has claims.

Beaten a fair way when sixth at Hawkesbury a week ago in a maiden; yet to open his account after 15 starts and form has an uneven look to it; hard enough to fancy.

RSIS

Backing up quickly for this race. At 19/1 ran 6th last start at Hawkesbury. Can make a comeback. Will be motoring home late. Win will not surprise.

6AlideelJ: Grant Buckley·T: Peter D Green657.5kg7 5 5 5 19: 1-0-0$16.00$4.60

Career

9: 1-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating40%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
4: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Kembla Grange
1: 0-0-0
Track Scone
1: 0-0-0
Track Bathurst
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1250m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1450m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
5: 1-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
3: 0-0-0

Last starts

1Orange1600m19 Oct 2026 · MDN · GOOD4-0.36
5Illawarra Grange1450m1 Oct 2026 · 4yo+ · GOOD43.8L
5Kembla Grange1400m12 Sept 2026 · 4yo+ · GOOD42.5L
5Bathurst1200m17 Aug 2026 · F&M MDN · HEAVY82.4L
7Hawkesbury1000m27 July 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)7.7L
12Newcastle1400m20 Nov 2025 · MID MDN · SOFT59.2L
5Wyong845m10 Nov 2025 · Barrier Trial5.4L
10Newcastle1500m25 Jan 2025 · Maiden · GOOD48.33L

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -54% POT in their L100 Races
Map Suits
Positive
Suitable Map, where runners in this position outperform market by 4%
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Posted a hard fought win in the Mdn at Orange and warrants attention.

ILB

Ran over the top of them when winning last run at Orange. Will be positive in the run early. Could be in the mix.

Seems to be improving based on last two runs; off the mark at the ninth time of asking at Orange over 1m (handicap) when getting the job done by a neck 15 days ago.

RSIS

Charged home to win last run at Orange. Should be going forward early. Betting is the best guide.

7PappianaJ: Anna Weatherlake·T: Nikki Pollock457.5kg2 9 7 8 427: 2-5-2$16.00$4.60

Career

27: 2-5-2

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offmidfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating60%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
5: 0-1-0
Second-up
4: 0-0-1
Third-up
3: 0-2-0
Fourth-up
3: 0-0-0
Track Muswellbrook
3: 0-1-0
Track Gawler
1: 0-0-0
Track Moree
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1250m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1280m
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
3: 0-1-1
Going Soft
9: 1-2-0
Going Unknown
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

4Muswellbrook1500m19 Oct 2026 · Benchmark 66 · GOOD43.4L
8Muswellbrook1280m5 Oct 2026 · CL2 · GOOD45.97L
7Tamworth1600m10 Apr 2026 · BM58 · GOOD42.9L
9Armidale1900m29 Mar 2026 · BM66 · GOOD45L
2Dubbo1600m6 Mar 2026 · BM58 · GOOD40.8L
6Tamworth1400m13 Feb 2026 · BM58 · SOFT54.6L
9Scone1200m29 Jan 2026 · BM58 HCP · GOOD42.8L
5Tamworth950m8 Jan 2026 · Barrier Trial1.7L

Insights

Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 7%
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 27%
Ideal Map
Positive
Map position exceeding market by 4%
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Long winless run. Sound effort making only minor gains when second-up this venue. Hard to warm to.

ILB

Finished 4th last run at the track. The large claim from Anna Weatherlake should help. Could feature here.

Not disgraced in fourth over 7½f here (handicap) 15 days ago; does not win very often; others have more pressing claims.

RSIS

Ran 4th last start at the track. The large claim from Anna Weatherlake helps. Keep safe.

8GrafologyJ: Andrew Gibbons·T: Lou Mary256.5kg3 4 7 1 47: 1-0-0$2.90$1.65

Career

7: 1-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed80%
Rating60%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Wyong
1: 0-0-0
Track Orange
1: 0-0-0
Track Tamworth
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1350m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
5: 1-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0

Last starts

4Orange1600m19 Oct 2026 · BM58 · GOOD42.72L
1Tamworth1600m1 Oct 2026 · MDN-SW · GOOD4-1.4
7Kembla Grange1600m12 Sept 2026 · MDN-SW · GOOD44L
4Kembla Grange1400m29 Aug 2026 · 3yo · GOOD45.7L
3Rosehill1030m7 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)2.2L
5Hawkesbury1400m2 May 2026 · 2Y HCP · GOOD45.8L
7Warwick Farm1300m1 Apr 2026 · 2Y MDN · SOFT55.1L
4Wyong1350m18 Mar 2026 · 2Y HCP · SOFT65L

Insights

Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 25% better than Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Positive
Andrew Gibbons 32% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low

Comments

AAP

Broke maiden at Tamworth 1 Oct. Ran on late from the back at Orange. Can show more here.

ILB

Was $2.60 and made ground when closing off to finish 4th last run at Orange and can find a nice position from the draw. Watch the betting.

Somewhat disappointing when finishing fourth (13-8) at Orange over 1m (handicap) two weeks ago; has found improvement of late.

RSIS

Started 8/5 and passed some rivals in the late stages when 4th last start at Orange and will try to take advantage of the draw. Can't leave out of your calculations.

9HarrietScratched8––––

Career

24: 3-3-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey80%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed80%
Rating100%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
5: 0-0-0
Second-up
4: 1-0-0
Third-up
4: 1-1-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-1-0
Track Riccarton Park
2: 0-0-0
Track Riccarton Park Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Track Gold Coast
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1920m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1280m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
5: 1-0-0
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
10: 1-2-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

1Narromine1600m17 Oct 2026 · BM50 · SOFT5-1.65
4Narromine1600m21 Sept 2026 · BM58 · GOOD32.27L
10Muswellbrook1280m8 Sept 2026 · Benchmark 58 · GOOD414L
7Muswellbrook1000m19 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)7.9L
6Tamworth1000m5 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)10.8L
5Grafton2208m25 Jan 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD47.9L
5Ballina1920m9 Jan 2026 · BM58 · GOOD34.4L
5Murwillumbah1550m29 Dec 2025 · BM58 HCP · GOOD411.8L

Insights

Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start

Comments

AAP

Strong winning performance after getting back worse than midfield at Narromine. Poised to deliver another big performance.

ILB

Bold effort when winning last time at Narromine.

Returned to winning ways at Narromine over 1m (handicap) when a 1½l winner last month; despite that Narromine success, has some questions to answer.

RSIS

Dashed home to win last time at Narromine.

10Rita's PearlScratched1––––

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey50%
Trainer40%
Jockey/Trainer Combo50%
Early Speed50%
Rating50%
Closing Speed80%

Insights

Dist Drop
Negative
Distance decrease from last start

Comments

AAP

Freshened. Last win was 16 Oct 2025. Never a threat after showing no early speed from the barriers at Dubbo over longer test. Others with greater appeal.

ILB

Odds of $8.50 and below par when 7th last time at Dubbo but has drawn to do little work. Down in distance.

RSIS

Started 15/2 and fairly underwhelming when 7th last run at Dubbo but drawn well. Dropping back to a shorter trip.

Odds correct as at Tue 3 Nov, 2:40 pm AEDT. Odds can change.

Past meetings

Sun 1 Nov, 11:00 am AEDT · 7 races
Mon 19 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 7 races
Mon 5 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 7 races
Tue 8 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 7 races