Shortest win price
Bossy Sheila (4)
2.25
Muswellbrook's serving up a cracker of a maiden handicap over 1280 metres on a heavy track under fine skies at 4:40 pm AEDT. The win market is led by Nearest, followed by Bossy Sheila, then Vaguely Red and Thirty Degrees. It's the sort of race where form reads one way on paper and plays out differently on the track — a heavy surface always throws curveballs at maiden fields, and this mob's got enough unexplored territory between them to keep punters guessing. The stable that trains Nearest and Vaguely Red is running hot and outperforming market expectation by ten per cent, a detail worth filing away when form is tight.
Nearest comes with the firmest form credentials, a recent outing at Scone that earned a solid AAP wrap: "Showed some promise. Gave solid chase in a good effort at Scone off long break after a market ease. Strips fitter. Will take stopping." The horse is primed second-up and maps from barrier six in an off-midfield slot, which suits its style. Bossy Sheila claimed second spot in the market after an encouraging debut at Wellington; a three-start resume with one placing already under the belt and a rating of 96 feels like underrated value for a first-up run. The form suggests both animals have genuine credentials, though a heavy track and a 1280 metre trip is a proper test for maidens. Vaguely Red, out of a full sister to the stakes winner Amber Sky, will jump from the inside gate and leads the early assault according to the speed map. The recent barrier trial at Muswellbrook earned praise and the lineage promises natural racing sense.
Thirty Degrees rounds out the shorter-priced quartet at barrier five as the leader, carrying form into this race after recent outings at Newcastle and Armidale. The stable notes suggest the horse is "well into preparation now" and "capable of making an impact" — a green light for third-start improvement. The heavy going favours racehorses with early pace and a tidy racing pattern, so monitoring how the off-midfield brigade (Nearest, Bossy Sheila, and Irish Accolade grouped together) positions itself early will be crucial. The narrative here tilts toward punters hunting value in the Messara and Gavranich stable's form cycle, or backing the finishing sectionals that Bossy Sheila has shown on heavy going.
Shortest win price
Bossy Sheila (4)
2.25
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Offmidfield
Midfield
Offpace
Onpace
Leader
Bossy Sheila · Positive
Fast Finisher
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Samogon · Positive
Well Placed
Drops back to a suitable class
Don't Tell Harry · Positive
Rider SR
Jockey recent POT is 23% better than Career Avg.
Irish Accolade · Positive
Fast Finisher
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Career
3: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Muswellbrook
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Track Scone
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1280m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Form Trainer
Positive
In form stable, out performing market expectation by 10%
Ideal Map
Positive
Map position exceeding market by 4%
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Shown some promise. Gave solid chase in a good effort at Scone off long break after a market ease. Strips fitter. Will take stopping.
ILB
At $8.00 picked up some late ground when 4th last run at Scone. Good to see jockey Christian Reith is jumping on.
RP
Not disgraced when fourth over 6f at Scone (handicap) last month; this just his fourth race; a likely player.
RSIS
Started at 7/1 and got going late when 4th last time at Scone. Good to see jockey Christian Reith is jumping on.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Offpace
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 5%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -49% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 43%
Market Watch
Negative
Keep eye on betting moves
AAP
Trials (2:0-0-0). Dam won four races. Two low-key trials in readiness for debut. Others with stronger preparations but check markets.
ILB
On a quick back up. Below par performance when 9th last start at the track but was on debut last time.
RSIS
Backs up quickly. Average at best when 9th last run here but was a debutant last start.
Rating · IRD
86
Speed map
Firststart
Form Trainer
Positive
In form stable, out performing market expectation by 10%
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Debutant
Positive
First race day appearance
AAP
Trials (4:0-1-0). Out of a full sister to the stakes winner Amber Sky. Encouraging performance in most recent barrier trial. Nice gate. Can make an immediate impact.
ILB
3yo by Maurice having first race appearance for Leah Gavranich & Paul Messara and has drawn the rails. Betting is the best guide.
RP
Trainer has a good record with first-time-out runners here; sole newcomer in the field; related to Villa Castina (winner from 1m up to 1m2f); clear chance as some good aspects to his profile and the current stable form is another tick.
RSIS
Leah Gavranich & Paul Messara 3yo first starter by Maurice and drawn by the rails.
Career
1: 0-0-1
Rating · IRD
96
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Wellington
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-1
Going Soft
1: 0-0-1
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -21% POT in their L100 Races
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Awkward Draw
Negative
Would have liked a better draw
Fresh
Positive
Freshened up. Had a break of 42-60 days
Raceday Experience
Positive
Wiser for debut run
AAP
Let-up (49-days). Highly encouraging debut performance at Wellington. Benefits from the experience. Worth a look.
ILB
Back from a let up. Threw down a serious challenge last time at Wellington and having second race start. Has early speed and positions nicely. Attracts support.
RP
Beaten a head on her debut at Wellington at 100-30 49 days ago; the trainer is going well; will need to step up from her racecourse introduction.
RSIS
Freshened up. Just missed last run at Wellington and was on debut last time. Won't be far away during the run. Rising in weight. Very capable of taking this out.
Career
1: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
75
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Port Macquarie
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Debut effort fair in spread-out finish at Port Macquarie at longer odds 9 Oct. Wiser for it. Extra ground should favour. Can make his presence felt.
ILB
Odds of $19.00 and ran 6th last time at Port Macquarie but was a debutant last start. Should race on the speed. Gets a favourable barrier. Suggest watching.
RP
Beaten 7l on his debut at Port Macquarie at 18-1 three weeks ago; should improve with a run under his belt although it was only a modest start.
RSIS
Started at 18/1 and ran 6th last run at Port Macquarie but having second career run. Should race on the pace. Gets a favourable draw.
Career
16: 0-0-1
Rating · IRD
85
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Moe
1: 0-0-0
Track Port Macquarie
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham Synthetic
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1615m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1250m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
3: 0-0-0
Going Good
10: 0-0-1
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 23% better than Career Avg.
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 5%
Key Rider
Positive
Ben Looker 32% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 45%
Hot Jockey
Positive
Ben Looker in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 32%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 12%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
AAP
In touch but ran out of petrol quickly and finished a long way down the track at Port Macquarie. Switching to 1280m. Looks more a place prospect.
ILB
Started $6.00 and couldn't maintain the pace when 13th last time at Port Macquarie. Will be positive in the run early. Good potential.
RP
Useful at this level; finished towards the rear of 14 at Port Macquarie over 7½f (handicap) last month.
RSIS
Odds of 5/1 and struggled with the pace when 13th last time at Port Macquarie. Displays good tactical pace. Must be considered here.
Career
50: 0-5-4
Rating · IRD
78
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
4: 0-0-1
Second-up
3: 0-1-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Grafton
1: 0-0-0
Track Newcastle
6: 0-2-0
Track Port Macquarie
5: 0-1-0
Distance 1200m
5: 0-1-1
Distance 1280m
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
3: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
7: 0-1-0
Going Soft
21: 0-2-3
Going Good
22: 0-2-1
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 2%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 63%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 65% Profit on Turnover
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Awkward Draw
Negative
Would have liked a better draw
Track Stats
Negative
Tends to struggle at this track
AAP
Solid change of gears running into the minors at Scone. Usually gets back. Perennial maiden.
ILB
Made some ground late when 3rd beaten by 5 3/4L last start at Scone. Likely to get back in the field. Anna Weatherlake provides some weight relief. Potential to run into a place.
RP
6l third at Scone last month in a maiden; still winless and defeats stacking up (50 on the bounce) and consistency hasn't been his strong suit.
RSIS
Ran home into 3rd beaten by 5 3/4L last start at Scone. Expected to settle towards the tail. The large claim from Anna Weatherlake should help.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Onpace
Track Stats
Negative
Tends to struggle at this track
Improved L/S
Positive
Improved again last start
AAP
Freshened since resuming. Off the speed, picked up soundly and wasn't beaten far this track for new trainer. Drawn to get a conservative run. Makes strong appeal.
ILB
Racing on a quick back up. Found another gear when winning by 3 1/4L last time around here.
RSIS
Backing up quickly for this race. Spaced the field to win by a margin of 3 1/4L last run around here.
Career
9: 0-0-1
Rating · IRD
76
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Armidale
1: 0-0-0
Track Muswellbrook
3: 0-0-1
Track CurrentTrack
3: 0-0-1
Distance 1400m
3: 0-0-0
Distance 900m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
4: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-1
Going Soft
4: 0-0-0
Jockey Booking
Negative
Liberty Smyth current POT is 34% below Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 33% in L100 rides
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Awkward Draw
Negative
May find this draw awkward
Increased Dist
Positive
Distance rise from last start
Blinkers On
Positive
Trainer has opted for the Blinkers on, take note
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Ordinary performance in small field this track for new trainer. Others more persuasive.
ILB
Started at $16.00 and mediocre attempt when 5th last run at the track but returning to an increased distance. Interesting gear change of tongue tie on first time. Peak required to upset this field.
RP
Yet to open his account after nine starts; out of the frame (beaten 5l in fifth) in a handicap last month; others more persuasive; also engaged in race 2 at Tamworth.
RSIS
Started 15/1 and appeared lacklustre when 5th last run around here but back over more ground. Interesting gear change of tongue strap on first time. Has struggled so far recently.
Career
7: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
79
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Gundagai
1: 0-0-0
Track Taree
1: 0-0-0
Track Bendigo
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1080m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1180m
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
3: 0-0-0
Imprv Needed
Negative
Would need to lift here to feature
AAP
Unplaced in all 7 runs to date. Sent out $41 when unable to threaten in rain affected going at Taree for new trainer. Usually gets back. Looks up against it.
ILB
Weakened under pressure when 11th last time at Taree.
RP
Yet to get off the mark in seven attempts (fifth her best finish); last of 11 at Taree over 5f (maiden) last month on debut for this trainer; probably unlikely to trouble the principals.
RSIS
Weakened under pressure when 11th last start at Taree.
Career
1: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
78
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Scone
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 25% better than Career Avg.
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 5%
Key Rider
Positive
Andrew Gibbons 32% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -27% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 48%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Raceday Experience
Positive
Wiser for debut run
AAP
Let-up (63-days). Well down the track at Scone on debut under sustained support. Since trialled at Muswellbrook 21 Oct. Improvement needed and leaning towards others.
ILB
Fresh today. Jumped at $10.00 and didn't find the line when 9th last start at Scone but was on debut last time. Tongue tie go on for the first time. Watch for a sign in the market.
RP
Beaten 14l when last on her debut (5½f, Scone) at 9-1 two months ago; might be better for the experience although not hard to turn elsewhere.
RSIS
Back from a break. Started 9/1 and couldn't stay in touch when 9th last run at Scone but having second career run. Tongue strap go on for the first time. Could be in the mix.
Career
14: 0-2-2
Rating · IRD
85
Speed map
Leader
First-up
2: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Muswellbrook
3: 0-1-1
Track Newcastle
1: 0-0-0
Track Narromine
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
5: 0-0-1
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1150m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
5: 0-0-1
Going Good
8: 0-2-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Trainer SR
Negative
Cassandra Stummer striking at just 4%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 54%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Made limited headway at Beaumont when drifting in the betting. Stats are tidy this course and well into preparation now. Capable of making an impact.
ILB
Backing up quickly for this race. Jumped at $14.00 and came in 5th last start at Newcastle but gets some weight relief. Will be pushing for a forward position early. Gets a chance against these.
RP
Has taken a step forward the last twice and grade looks suitable; not disgraced when fifth of ten over 5½f at Beaumont (maiden) a week ago; likely to be thereabouts.
RSIS
On a short turnaround. Was 13/1 and finished 5th last start at Newcastle but dropping weight. Should muster plenty of early toe. Strong claims.
Career
63: 0-1-3
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
7: 0-0-0
Second-up
6: 0-0-0
Third-up
6: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
6: 0-1-0
Track Mudgee
3: 0-0-1
Track Tamworth
6: 0-0-0
Track Armidale
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1610m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1750m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 950m
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
7: 0-0-0
Going Soft
22: 0-0-0
Going Good
34: 0-1-3
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 2%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 52%
Well beaten LS
Negative
Not competitive last run
Awkward Draw
Negative
Would have liked a better draw
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Track And Dist
Negative
Has a poor record at this track and trip
Track Stats
Negative
Tends to struggle at this track
AAP
Failed to threaten at Scone at a mammoth price. Long time a maiden and hard to trust.
ILB
Was $101.00 and disappointing run when 7th last run at Scone but gets some weight taken off. Should muster plenty of early speed. Yet to break through after 63 runs. In a lot of trouble.
RP
Behind Irish Accolade when beaten 19l (seventh of eight) at Scone last month in a maiden; he meets the required standard ability wise.
RSIS
Started 100/1 and just average when 7th last time at Scone but gets some weight taken off. Will be pushing for a forward position early.