Shortest win price
Lighthouse Lass (6)
3.00
Muswellbrook hosts the Hunter Valley Premium Meats Bowman Sprint over 900 metres on a SOFT6 track under fine conditions at 3:55 pm AEDT. The win market has Lighthouse Lass shortest, with Shihab and Speck next, followed by Arctic Legend. This is a cracking little race where the early tempo could make or break plenty. Who Goes There, Super Sioux and No Statement are all mapped as Leaders, which means we could see genuine pressure from the jump. Shihab sits as the Backmarker in this shape, while Speck is Onpace and the rest are Offpace runners hoping to pick up the pieces if things get messy.
Lighthouse Lass won fresh at Rosehill over 1100 metres just before her let-up, and that form line is exactly what catches the eye. Andrew Gibbons is riding at 25 per cent better POT than his career average right now, and the Rosehill effort came on SOFT6 going — the same conditions she'll face today. The filly trialled competitively and Freedman's team has done the homework. Shihab is resuming for Glen Milligan after 35 weeks away; the word from the trial at Port Macquarie is that he's come up super, and he's a genuine first-up winner on the record. Milligan's strike rate reads modest, but his jockey combo with Christian Reith is outperforming the market by 49 per cent. Speck shapes as the key player if the race doesn't get away from the speed. He won at Moree two back over 950 metres and only found one close at this track and trip another time. The Taree run two weeks back was modest in soft going, but the form's solid enough to suggest he has a winning chance at the right odds.
Arctic Legend has only just returned to action after 59 days off, and while he trimmed late at Eagle Farm, this shorter 900 metres with a wet track could suit his profile well. The Cody Morgan stable has him marked at Rating 86, and he's a first-up winner on the books. Who Goes There maps perfectly for his running style and the jockey combo is overperforming by 55 per cent, but he'll have Super Sioux and No Statement right there testing his early position. The leaders shape to give this contest genuine shape, so pace punters might find an angle with a runner ready to pounce late if the speed-battlers tyre each other out.
Shortest win price
Lighthouse Lass (6)
3.00
Most career wins
No Statement
14-9-16 from 100 starts
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Offmidfield
Midfield
Offpace
Onpace
Leader
Shihab · Negative
Trainer Recent
Camp struggling with S/R just 8%
Saratoga Power · Negative
Jockey Booking
Less suitable jockey engaged
Who Goes There · Positive
Hot J/T Combo
Combo are out performing market expectations by 55%
Speck · Negative
Jockey Booking
Less suitable jockey engaged
Career
38: 7-7-3
Rating · IRD
72
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
5: 1-1-0
Second-up
4: 0-1-0
Third-up
4: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 1-0-0
Track Scone
2: 0-1-0
Track Grafton
1: 0-1-0
Track Newcastle
4: 0-1-0
Distance 1500m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1550m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
19: 1-4-3
Going Heavy
5: 3-1-0
Going Soft
14: 3-2-0
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 8%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 28%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 42% Profit on Turnover
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Struggling
Negative
Doesn’t look to be going well
AAP
Resuming (35-weeks). Trialed up super at Port Macquarie 25 Oct and is a first-up winner. Can make a positive start for new trainer off long lay-off.
ILB
Back from a 35 week break. At $81.00 couldn't maintain the pace when 11th last run at Eagle Farm but drawn the rails. First race for a new trainer. Not likely to be troubling the more fancied runners today.
RP
Finished last of 11 over 6f at Eagle Farm (handicap) in February; shown only moderate recent form; first start for new stable; makes limited appeal.
RSIS
Back from a break of 35 weeks. Started 80/1 and gave away some ground when 11th last run at Eagle Farm but has a nice advantage with a good stall.
Career
23: 8-1-5
Rating · IRD
85
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
2: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Gold Coast Poly
1: 1-0-0
Track Doomben
1: 0-0-0
Track Mudgee
1: 1-0-0
Distance 900m
3: 2-0-0
Distance 1000m
13: 4-1-5
Distance 1010m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
13: 6-1-1
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-1
Going Soft
7: 1-0-3
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 46%
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Form At Track
Positive
5 time winner here at Muswellbrook
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
AAP
First-up (20-weeks). Raced well last time in. Can pull out a run fresh and proven here while having an easy trial in readiness. Among the dangers.
ILB
Fresh today after a break. Was $13.00 and weakened under pressure when 8th last run at Port Macquarie. Is capable of a resurgence. Great chance.
RP
Beaten a fair way when eighth over 5f at Port Macquarie (handicap) five months ago; has winning form over this course and distance on the CV; enters calculations given he won a handicap two runs back.
RSIS
Back from a break. Started at 12/1 and couldn't stay in touch when 8th last run at Port Macquarie. Expected to rebound. Genuine claims.
Career
22: 7-1-1
Rating · IRD
75
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
5: 3-0-0
Second-up
4: 1-0-0
Third-up
4: 1-0-0
Track Tamworth
6: 5-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
2: 0-0-0
Track Scone
3: 1-0-0
Distance 900m
6: 1-1-0
Distance 950m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1000m
11: 5-0-1
Going Good
13: 4-1-1
Going Heavy
2: 1-0-0
Going Soft
7: 2-0-0
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 55%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 12%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Dist Drop
Negative
Distance decrease from last start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Imprv Needed
Negative
Would need to lift here to feature
AAP
Sent forward but flat-footed when things got serious at Scone. On pacer. Drops to shorter trip. Leaning towards others here.
ILB
Odds of $15.00 and lost ground in the run home when 10th last time at Scone and will be facing a significant drop in distance. Rough chance today.
RP
Career record shows his ability to win (wins-runs record of 7-21); finished tenth of 12 at Scone over 5½f (handicap) 11 days ago; is passed over.
RSIS
Started 14/1 and faded away to finish 10th last run at Scone and dropping back to a shorter trip. Grant Buckley is a plus. Should muster plenty of early toe.
Career
22: 6-4-2
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
4: 1-1-1
Second-up
3: 1-1-0
Third-up
3: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
3: 2-1-0
Track Muswellbrook
3: 0-2-0
Track Dubbo
4: 1-0-1
Track Scone
4: 0-0-0
Distance 900m
3: 0-1-0
Distance 950m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1000m
14: 5-3-2
Going Good
7: 2-2-1
Going Heavy
3: 0-0-1
Going Soft
12: 4-2-0
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -24% POT in their L100 Races
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Moree winner two back. Modest performance in rain affected going at Taree when in the market. Went close only other go this course and trip. Key player.
ILB
Started $3.90 and lacked competitiveness when 4th last time at Taree. Should bounce back. In the placings multiple times this campaign. Large claim helps. Tough competitor.
RP
Record shows she knows where the winning post is (wins-runs career record of 6-22); fair effort over 5f at Taree (handicap) 18 days ago; the Rodney Northam operation is running hot currently; big player.
RSIS
At 3/1 basic showing when 4th last run at Taree. Giving another chance here. Running with confidence since returning from a break. Large claim helps. Winning chance.
Career
21: 4-1-3
Rating · IRD
85
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
7: 1-1-2
Second-up
6: 1-0-0
Third-up
4: 1-0-1
Fourth-up
3: 1-0-0
Track Gosford
1: 0-0-1
Track Tamworth
6: 4-1-0
Track Armidale
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
9: 3-1-1
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
7: 3-1-0
Going Good
12: 1-0-3
Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 34% lower than Career Avg.
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 8% POT in L100 Runners
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 33% in L100 rides
Fresh
Positive
Freshened up. Had a break of 42-60 days
Blinkers Off
Positive
Blinkers coming off this start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Let-up (59-days). Trimmed margin late at Eagle Farm over longer assignment. Can make a positive start for new trainer.
ILB
Back from a freshen up. Moved ahead of some to finish 4th last start at Eagle Farm but coming back in distance. First appearance for a new trainer. Serious contender.
RP
Held in fourth at Eagle Farm over 7½f (handicap) two months ago; first run for stable; is passed over.
RSIS
Freshened up. Ran on into 4th last run at Eagle Farm but will be down in distance. First start for a new trainer and gets some weight relief. Should go close.
Career
16: 2-6-1
Rating · IRD
80
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
3: 1-1-0
Second-up
2: 0-1-0
Third-up
2: 0-2-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-2-0
Track Hawkesbury
2: 0-2-0
Track Muswellbrook
2: 0-1-0
Track CurrentTrack
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 900m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
9: 1-4-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
6: 1-2-0
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 25% better than Career Avg.
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 9%
Jockey Booking
Positive
Andrew Gibbons 32% above market expected in L100 Rides
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 33%
Key Jockey
Positive
Andrew Gibbons winning at 11% POT in last 100 rides
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Awkward Draw
Negative
Would have liked a better draw
Dist Drop
Negative
Distance decrease from last start
AAP
Resuming (18-weeks). Effective fresh and registered a number of career-best efforts last campaign. Warrants attention.
ILB
First up from a break. Picked up nicely to win last start at Rosehill but will be dropping in distance. Has to carry more weight this time. Not at all out of this race.
RP
Landed a narrow success in a handicap at Rosehill in June, ending losing run; has to be taken seriously.
RSIS
Back after a break. Ran over the top of them when winning last time at Rosehill but down in trip. Has to cope with a weight increase. Can't leave out of your calculations.
Career
10: 3-2-1
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Leader
First-up
3: 2-1-0
Second-up
2: 1-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Canberra
1: 1-0-0
Track Muswellbrook
1: 0-1-0
Track Newcastle
2: 1-1-0
Distance 1000m
8: 2-1-1
Distance 900m
2: 1-1-0
Going Good
3: 0-1-0
Going Heavy
3: 1-0-0
Going Soft
4: 2-1-1
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 23% better than Career Avg.
Key Rider
Positive
Ben Looker 33% above market expected in L100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 62%
Key Jockey
Positive
Ben Looker winning at 14% POT in last 100 rides
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
1st Up S/R
Positive
Has won 2 from 3 when resuming
AAP
Resuming (42-weeks). Strikes form quickly while brought on by a comfortable trial win. Natural leader, gun draw. Set to play a leading role fresh.
ILB
First up after 42 weeks and made all to win by a margin of just over 3 1/2L first up last preparation at Canberra. Gets a favourable barrier.
RP
A proven winner with a career wins-runs record of 3-10 and consistent lately; a disappointing result (went off favourite) when beaten 2l over 5f at Warwick Farm (handicap) in January; she has won after a similar break previously and should not be ruled out; also engaged in race 9 at Randwick.
RSIS
Resuming and controlled the pace to win by a margin of just over 3 1/2L resuming last preparation at Canberra. Has a good draw.
Career
21: 5-3-4
Rating · IRD
77
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
4: 1-1-1
Second-up
3: 1-0-1
Third-up
3: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Moree
5: 1-0-2
Track Walcha
1: 0-0-0
Track Narromine
2: 1-1-0
Distance 800m
3: 2-1-0
Distance 900m
3: 0-0-1
Distance 950m
5: 1-0-2
Going Good
10: 2-0-3
Going Soft
11: 3-3-1
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Fresh
Positive
Freshened up. Had a break of 42-60 days
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Let-up (58-days). Sound but non-threatening effort at Moree. First time around Muswellbrook. Others with stronger claims.
ILB
Back from a let up. Was $10.00 and ran 6th last start at Moree. Has early speed and positions nicely. Exhibiting good form this campaign. Do not dismiss.
RP
Proven that she knows how to get her head in front (seeking a sixth career win) but hit and miss profile recently; not disgraced when sixth at Moree, finishing well behind reopposing Speck two months ago; others more appealing.
RSIS
Back from a let up. At 9/1 came in 6th last run at Moree. Will be positive in the run early. Producing consistent results in recent runs.
Career
100: 14-9-16
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Leader
First-up
5: 0-1-1
Second-up
4: 1-0-1
Third-up
3: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
3: 0-0-0
Track Randwick
15: 1-0-0
Track Gosford
9: 0-1-4
Track Kembla Grange
5: 2-0-0
Distance 900m
28: 6-5-3
Distance 1000m
53: 5-4-7
Distance 1100m
16: 3-0-4
Going Good
47: 8-4-8
Going Heavy
13: 2-2-1
Going Soft
40: 4-3-7
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 8%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Made all and just picked off late at Canberra. Has early speed. Harder to warm to here.
ILB
Claimed late when 3rd beaten by 1 3/4L last start at Canberra and has a good draw. Should come to hand quickly. Few more classier types in this race.
RP
Was on the premises (finished third of eight) at Canberra over 5f (handicap) last month.
RSIS
Honest run on the pace before fading to finish 3rd beaten by 1 3/4L last time at Canberra and has a positive stall. Should race on the pace.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Onpace
Weight Drop
Positive
Drops 4kg from LS run
AAP
Third run now in new stable/region. Having a good preparation. Toughed it out on the pace at Tamworth over longer test at $1.30. Harder now but sure to have supporters.
ILB
Finished hard to win last time at Tamworth but up against a higher level of opposition. Can't knock the form winning 2 in a row but coming back in trip.
RSIS
Dashed home to win last time at Tamworth but challenged by more formidable competitors. Won last 2 in succession but back to a shorter trip.