Traralgon (VIC) horses tips & previews

5 Nov, 1:49 pm AEDT

One race at a time: field, form guide and win/place odds for Traralgon (VIC), with capture times on every price.

Meeting — Sat 31 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT

Meetings · Sat, 31 OctTraralgon (VIC)Change

Race 5 — Traralgon Cup November 29 Hcp (56) 1430m · jumps Sat 31 Oct, 3:56 pm AEDT

Race notes

CG&E 0 - 56,CG&E 0 - 56 HCP,Restricted 56
SOFT7
Showers
10 runners

Shortest win price

Ze Bee Nine (8)

3.90

Most career wins

Headstock and Epicus

6 each

Speed map

Back left · leaders right

Backmarker

10Epicus

Midfield

2Headstock
7I'm Dynamite
9Aussieaussieaussie
5Mont Saint Michel

Offpace

1Clinger
3Frederick

Onpace

4It's Gnarly
8Ze Bee Nine

Leader

6Nikephoros

Clinger · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are under performing market expectations by -35%
Headstock · Negative
Trainer Recent
Camp struggling with S/R just 7%
Frederick · Negative
Trainer SR
Michael Huglin striking at just 3%
It's Gnarly · Negative
Trainer A2E
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 24%

No.RunnerBarWgtLast 5WinPlace

1ClingerJ: Jackie Beriman·T: Ms J Beriman360kg10 3 7 9 816: 2-0-1$9.00$2.70

Career

16: 2-0-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating80%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
5: 1-0-0
Second-up
4: 1-0-1
Third-up
3: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Kilmore
1: 0-0-0
Track Sale
1: 0-0-0
Track Yarra Valley
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1457m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1514m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
4: 1-0-0
Going Good
12: 1-0-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
3: 1-0-0

Last starts

8Wangaratta1400m31 July 2026 · 2UP BM56 HCP · HEAVY913.7L
9Mildura1400m18 July 2026 · 2yo+ · GOOD46.6L
7Cranbourne2025m10 Jan 2026 · 0-62 · GOOD44.9L
3Yarra Valley1514m29 Dec 2025 · BM56 · GOOD41.1L
10Pakenham1200m28 Nov 2025 · 3yo+ · SOFT56.4L
6Werribee1621m16 May 2025 · BM58 HCP · GOOD42.6L
7Kilmore1457m5 May 2025 · 2yo+ · GOOD44.17L
8Sale1736m8 Apr 2025 · BenchMark 58 · GOOD38.31L

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are under performing market expectations by -35%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 18% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 9%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Well beaten LS
Negative
Not competitive last run
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Blinkers Off
Positive
Blinkers coming off this start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Resuming (13-weeks). Could give some cheek at odds fresh in this affair.

ILB

Back from a break. At $11.00 looked outclassed when 8th last time at Wangaratta on a heavy surface. One of the punters top hopes.

Finished behind I'm Dynamite when beaten 14l (eighth of nine, Wangaratta) three months ago; has shown glimpses of ability recently and should prove competitive.

RSIS

Resuming after a break. Odds of 10/1 and didn't attack the line when 8th last time at Wangaratta. One of the value chances in this race.

2HeadstockJ: Jake Noonan·T: Carly Thomas160kg7 4 5 10 849: 6-3-7$8.00$2.50

Career

49: 6-3-7

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed80%
Rating80%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
7: 0-1-1
Second-up
6: 2-1-0
Third-up
6: 1-0-1
Fourth-up
6: 0-1-1
Track Moruya
2: 1-1-0
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-0
Track Kilmore
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
4: 0-0-2
Distance 1010m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1112m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
28: 3-0-5
Going Heavy
5: 1-0-1
Going Soft
15: 2-3-1

Last starts

8Mornington1200m22 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD34.46L
10Pakenham Synthetic1200m5 Oct 2026 · BM62 · SYNTHETIC13.95L
5Mornington1200m17 Sept 2026 · 0 - 62 · GOOD41.01L
4Geelong1200m31 July 2026 · 2UP CG&E BM56 HCP · SOFT76.3L
7Bairnsdale1200m13 July 2026 · 2yo+ · SOFT77L
5Sale1205m28 June 2026 · BM62 · HEAVY82.2L
1Bairnsdale1200m12 June 2026 · BM56 · HEAVY8-2.8
8Mornington1200m25 May 2026 · 2yo+ · SOFT55.2L

Insights

Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 7%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 30%
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Raced in back half and was never in a position to mount a serious challenge at Mornington. Very fit, could get into the placings.

ILB

Odds of $17.00 and weakened under pressure when 8th last run at Mornington but has a nice advantage with a good alley. Could feature here.

Fair effort when beaten 4½l, finishing eighth of ten over 6f at Mornington (handicap) last week; much respected based on the pick of his form.

RSIS

Odds of 16/1 and faded away to finish 8th last start at Mornington but can save some energy from the draw. Betting is the best guide.

3FrederickJ: Adam Mc Cabe·T: Michael Huglin759kg5 4 3 8 421: 2-2-2$9.00$2.70

Career

21: 2-2-2

Rating · IRD

100

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey80%
Trainer20%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating100%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
7: 0-0-0
Second-up
4: 0-1-1
Third-up
3: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-1
Track Moe
6: 1-1-0
Track Pakenham Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Track Echuca
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
9: 1-1-1
Distance 1206m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1209m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
10: 1-0-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
9: 1-2-1

Last starts

4Moe1200m18 Oct 2026 · 0 - 56 · GOOD33.35L
8Donald1206m11 July 2026 · 0 - 56 · HEAVY88.6L
3Swan Hill1200m6 June 2026 · 0 - 56 · SOFT61.5L
4Echuca1109m23 May 2026 · 0 - 56 · SOFT71.6L
5Caulfield Heath950m30 Apr 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)5.7L
2Great Western1200m24 Jan 2026 · 0 - 56 · SOFT50.8L
1Kerang1100m27 Dec 2025 · BM52 · GOOD3-2
11Werribee1408m15 Dec 2025 · 3UP BM56 HCP · GOOD44.3L

Insights

Trainer SR
Negative
Michael Huglin striking at just 3%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -49% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 64%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 71% Profit on Turnover

Comments

AAP

Made limited headway at Moe. Fitter second-up. Shapes as a major player.

ILB

Started $6.50 and made up ground when 4th last start at Moe. Strong claims.

Not beaten that far over 6f at Moe (handicap) 13 days ago; makes limited appeal.

RSIS

Started 11/2 and inched into 4th last time at Moe. One of the punters top hopes at a very generous price.

4It's GnarlyJ: Brad Rawiller·T: Logan Mcgill859kg11 9 9 7 49: 1-0-0$4.00$1.60

Career

9: 1-0-0

Rating · IRD

100

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating100%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Mornington
1: 0-0-0
Track Bendigo
1: 0-0-0
Track Hamilton
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
3: 1-0-0
Distance 1479m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
3: 1-0-0
Going Soft
4: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
2: 0-0-0

Last starts

4Bendigo1400m17 Oct 2026 · 0 - 56 · GOOD31.77L
7Hamilton1400m10 Oct 2026 · 0 - 56 · SOFT53.7L
9Mornington1200m4 Sept 2026 · 3UP BM62 HCP · SOFT57.9L
9Ballarat Synthetic1000m18 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · SYNTHETIC6.5L
11Pakenham Synthetic1100m3 Aug 2026 · BM62 · SYNTHETIC6.4L
12Yarra Valley1500m24 Mar 2026 · BM56 · SOFT515.97L
6Kyneton1479m27 Feb 2026 · BM56 · SOFT65.3L
1Werribee1400m17 Feb 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD4-1

Insights

Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 24%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early

Comments

AAP

There to threaten just couldn't quite finish it off at Bendigo. Outer barrier but has good gate speed. Deep into his campaign, can make his presence felt if things pan out.

ILB

Started at $5.50 and tired in the closing stages of the race when 4th last start at Bendigo. Should be rolling forward early from the wide barrier. Has strong claims.

Far from disgraced (beaten just under 2l) at Bendigo two weeks ago; should get involved as recent form is thin on the ground in this contest and his latest effort was promising.

RSIS

Started at 9/2 and was found wanting late when 4th last time at Bendigo. Should be rolling forward early from the wide draw. Strong prospects.

5Mont Saint MichelJ: Jason Maskiell·T: Paul & Tracey Templeton1059kg2 4 7 8 331: 3-3-4$11.00$3.20

Career

31: 3-3-4

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer20%
Jockey/Trainer Combo60%
Early Speed80%
Rating100%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
5: 1-1-1
Second-up
4: 0-1-0
Third-up
4: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
3: 0-0-1
Track Donald
1: 0-0-0
Track Benalla
2: 1-1-0
Track Bairnsdale
4: 1-1-0
Distance 1200m
13: 1-0-2
Distance 1210m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1217m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
20: 3-2-3
Going Soft
8: 0-1-1
Going Synthetic
3: 0-0-0

Last starts

3Moe1200m18 Oct 2026 · 0 - 56 · GOOD31.85L
8Bairnsdale1200m20 Sept 2026 · 0 - 56 · GOOD33.66L
7Mornington1200m4 Sept 2026 · 3UP BM62 HCP · SOFT55.3L
4Sale1100m21 Aug 2026 · 0-56 · SOFT61.4L
2Bairnsdale1000m4 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT50.8L
6Ballarat Synthetic1200m16 June 2026 · BM56 · SYNTHETIC3.9L
11Stony Creek1100m15 Feb 2026 · BM56 · GOOD49.81L
7Pakenham1400m29 Jan 2026 · BM62 · GOOD49.8L

Insights

Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 50% lower than Career Avg.
Trainer SR
Negative
P & T Templeton striking at just 4%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 42%
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 64% in L100 rides
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Wide Draw
Negative
Likely to get caught wide

Comments

AAP

Put in a long run from the back at Moe. Very fit, can fill the minors here.

ILB

Zipped home into 3rd beaten by 1 3/4L last start at Moe. Strong prospects.

Had a couple of these behind him when third at Moe over 6f (handicap) 13 days ago.

RSIS

Good effort to finish 3rd beaten by 1 3/4L last start at Moe. Has claims.

6NikephorosJ: Logan Mcneil·T: D M Noonan958.5kg5 1 11 11 418: 1-0-2$41.00$6.00

Career

18: 1-0-2

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed80%
Rating40%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Cranbourne
2: 0-0-0
Track Ararat
2: 0-0-0
Track Seymour
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
9: 1-0-1
Distance 1900m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
3: 0-0-0
Going Good
9: 0-0-2
Going Heavy
2: 1-0-0
Going Soft
6: 0-0-0

Last starts

4Caulfield Heath800m1 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)1.9L
11Murtoa1600m25 July 2026 · 0 - 56 · SOFT714L
11Bairnsdale1600m13 July 2026 · 2yo+ · SOFT711.8L
1Bairnsdale1600m12 June 2026 · 2yo+ · HEAVY8-0.3
5Moe1600m28 May 2026 · 2UP MDN-SW · HEAVY106L
6Ararat1600m9 May 2026 · 2yo+ · SOFT71.8L
7Cranbourne1300m17 Apr 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · SOFT67.5L
4Cranbourne1200m3 Apr 2026 · 4yo+ · GOOD32L

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -70% POT in their L100 Races
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up

Comments

AAP

Resuming (14-weeks). Blew the cobwebs away in recent trial. Awkwardly drawn for return. May need this.

ILB

Fresh today. Started $41.00 and was well beaten when 11th last start at Murtoa. The wide alley shouldn't be a problem with plenty of early speed. Needs significant improvement.

Last of 11 at Murtoa over 1m (handicap) in July; others more likely.

RSIS

First run back after a break. Started 40/1 and struggled with the pace when 11th last time at Murtoa. Has the early pace to burn across from the wide stall.

7I'm DynamiteJ: Valentin Le Boeuf·T: Susie Wells657.5kg4 5 9 7 466: 4-4-10$18.00$3.90

Career

66: 4-4-10

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed80%
Rating60%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
6: 1-0-1
Second-up
5: 1-0-0
Third-up
5: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
4: 0-0-1
Track Pakenham
3: 0-0-0
Track Sale
29: 2-1-7
Track Yarra Valley
3: 0-2-0
Distance 1430m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1457m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
6: 0-1-0
Going Good
31: 0-2-4
Going Heavy
11: 2-2-1
Going Soft
22: 2-0-4

Last starts

4Kilmore1457m13 Oct 2026 · 3UP BM52 HCP · GOOD42.75L
7Geelong1247m28 Aug 2026 · 0-56 · SOFT75.7L
9Sale1400m21 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT64.6L
5Wangaratta1400m31 July 2026 · 2UP BM56 HCP · HEAVY95.8L
4Sale1400m26 July 2026 · 2yo+ · SOFT65L
8Bairnsdale1200m13 July 2026 · 2yo+ · SOFT77.4L
2Bairnsdale1200m12 June 2026 · BM56 · HEAVY82.8L
1Werribee1425m30 May 2026 · 0 - 56 · SOFT6-0.3

Insights

Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 45% in Last 100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 83%
Hot Jockey
Positive
Valentin Le Boeuf in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 26%
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Ran on okay without troubling at Kilmore. Looks up against it.

ILB

Odds of $26.00 and improved when 4th last time at Kilmore. Betting is the best guide.

Creditable effort to finish fourth, beaten just under 3l upped to this trip at Kilmore 18 days ago; struggled a bit since winning a handicap at Werribee in May.

RSIS

At 25/1 hit the line well when 4th last time at Kilmore. Could be in the mix.

8Ze Bee NineJ: Caitlin Hollowood·T: Ms C Martindale257.5kg8 8 12 3 941: 2-6-6$3.90$1.60

Career

41: 2-6-6

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating80%
Closing Speed20%

Record

First-up
5: 0-0-0
Second-up
4: 0-0-1
Third-up
4: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
3: 0-0-0
Track Mornington
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham
4: 0-1-0
Track Sale
9: 1-1-1
Distance 1400m
11: 1-1-2
Distance 1411m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1415m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
19: 1-2-4
Going Heavy
8: 0-0-1
Going Soft
14: 1-4-1

Last starts

9Moe1200m18 Oct 2026 · 0 - 56 · GOOD36.15L
3Bairnsdale1200m20 Sept 2026 · 0 - 56 · GOOD31L
12Seymour1414m27 Aug 2026 · 0 - 62 · HEAVY812.5L
8Moe1600m13 Aug 2026 · 3UP BM56 HCP · HEAVY1012.2L
8Sale1400m26 July 2026 · 2yo+ · SOFT67.3L
6Sale1429m9 July 2026 · 2yo+ · HEAVY94.8L
13Bairnsdale1200m12 June 2026 · BM56 · HEAVY810.9L
3Traralgon1430m30 Nov 2025 · 3UP BM62 HCP · HEAVY91.8L

Insights

Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are winning 33% POT in their L100 Races
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 25%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Track Stats
Positive
Excels at this track

Comments

AAP

Bairnsdale 3yo+ Hcp (56) placegetter 20 Sep. On pace but folded up quickly at Moe. Good gate speed, soft draw. Deep into his campaign, not out of this.

ILB

Started at $8.50 and weakened to finish 9th last start at Moe but will try to take advantage of the gate. Shows good early pace. Could be in the mix.

Held in ninth at Moe over 6f (handicap) two weeks ago; boasts winning form over C&D; does not win very often; unlikely to achieve more than just a supporting role.

RSIS

Started 15/2 and folded up in the straight when 9th last start at Moe but has a good draw. Will be positive in the run early. Has some claims.

9AussieaussieaussieJ: Liana Wood·T: R N Mathews556.5kg1 11 10 8 1022: 2-0-0$31.00$5.00

Career

22: 2-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed80%
Rating60%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
7: 0-0-0
Second-up
4: 0-0-0
Third-up
3: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
3: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham
1: 0-0-0
Track Cranbourne
10: 1-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
7: 1-0-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
16: 2-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
4: 0-0-0

Last starts

10Yarra Valley1209m24 Oct 2026 · 0 - 56 · SOFT516.99L
8Moe1008m18 June 2026 · BM56 · HEAVY97L
10Geelong1312m14 Mar 2026 · 0 - 56 · GOOD44.7L
11Pakenham1400m5 Mar 2026 · BM62 · GOOD49.4L
1Moe1200m22 Feb 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD4-1
5Cranbourne1200m22 Jan 2026 · CL1 · GOOD311.25L
5Cranbourne1000m17 Jan 2026 · CL1 · GOOD39.3L
10Moe1600m19 Oct 2025 · 0 - 56 · GOOD44.8L

Insights

Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 21% better than Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Positive
Liana Wood 23% above market expected in L100 Rides
Hot Trainer
Positive
Raymond Mathews in good form, out performing market 33%
Well beaten LS
Negative
Not competitive last run
Fitness
Positive
At peak fitness backing up
Imprv Needed
Negative
Would need to lift here to feature

Comments

AAP

On a short back-up. Settled back and didn't come on at Yarra Glen first up. Others more persuasive.

ILB

Backs up quickly. Was $12.00 and tailed off to finish 10th last time at Yarra Valley. Liana Wood takes a large claim. Will need to elevate.

Subpar since successful in a handicap at Moe in February; finished last of ten over 6f at Yarra Glen (handicap) last Saturday; others are preferred.

RSIS

Racing on a quick back up. Started at 11/1 and couldn't maintain the pace when 10th last start at Yarra Vstall. The large claim from Liana Wood should help.

10EpicusJ: Joe Bowditch·T: T Kilgower456.5kg3 8 6 2 143: 6-4-4$4.20$1.70

Career

43: 6-4-4

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer40%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating80%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
7: 0-0-0
Second-up
6: 0-1-1
Third-up
5: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
4: 1-0-0
Track Randwick
1: 0-0-0
Track Eagle Farm
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1000m
4: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
2: 0-0-1
Going Good
24: 3-2-2
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
11: 1-1-1

Last starts

1Alexandra1300m24 Oct 2026 · Open · GOOD3-3.5
2Cranbourne1200m9 Oct 2026 · 3UP HCP · GOOD30.75L
6Bairnsdale1000m20 Sept 2026 · 0 - 56 · GOOD33.33L
8Mornington1500m10 May 2026 · 0 - 56 · SOFT64.6L
3Pakenham1600m1 May 2026 · Open · GOOD41.5L
9Moe1100m25 Apr 2026 · 0 - 56 · GOOD43.6L
1Balnarring1200m11 Apr 2026 · Open-5
3Tambo1200m5 Apr 2026 · Open0.9L

Insights

Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 7%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 35%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Margin LS
Positive
Won by a big margin last start
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Primed
Positive
Fitter here racing on a quick back up

Comments

AAP

On a quick back-up. All honours in the small field at Alexandra. Previous run makes him very hard to beat here.

ILB

On a quick back up. Put a gap on the rest when winning by a margin of 3 1/2L last run at Alexandra. Very competitive this campaign. Respect the betting.

Was well on top at the line over 6½f at Alexandra (handicap) a week ago; has a chance.

RSIS

On a short turnaround. Won very easily when winning by 3 1/2L last start at Alexandra and form has been improving over recent runs. Showing positive results of late. Watch the betting.

11Cuban DawnScratched1––––

Career

26: 1-4-5

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed80%
Rating80%
Closing Speed20%

Record

First-up
4: 0-0-2
Second-up
3: 0-1-0
Third-up
3: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Echuca
2: 0-0-0
Track Kilmore
1: 0-0-0
Track St Arnaud
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1425m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1500m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
6: 0-0-1
Going Good
13: 1-3-2
Going Soft
8: 0-1-2
Going Synthetic
5: 0-0-1

Last starts

11Bairnsdale1600m20 Sept 2026 · 0 - 56 · GOOD316.06L
10Kilmore2000m13 Sept 2026 · 0 - 56 · GOOD49.4L
11Bairnsdale1600m4 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT56.4L
10Ballarat Synthetic1500m27 July 2026 · 2yo+ · SYNTHETIC6.9L
2Bendigo1400m13 June 2026 · 0 - 56 · SOFT50.5L
3Werribee1425m30 May 2026 · 0 - 56 · SOFT63.5L
6Werribee2256m1 Feb 2026 · 0 - 56 · GOOD48L
2Stony Creek2100m30 Dec 2025 · 3UP BM56 HCP · GOOD41.5L

Insights

Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 28% better than Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Positive
Teodore Nugent 43% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 13% POT in L100 Runners
Hot Jockey
Positive
Teodore Nugent in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 43%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low

Comments

AAP

Now 5 weeks between runs. Well back and never sighted at Bairnsdale at double-figure odds. Others with more appeal.

ILB

Odds of $19.00 and struggled with the pace when 11th last time at Bairnsdale but drawn beautifully.

Finished last of 11 at Bairnsdale over 1m (handicap) dropped back in distance last month.

RSIS

Odds of 18/1 and didn't find the line when 11th last start at Bairnsdale but has minimal work to do from the stall.

12Grand SageScratched3––––

Career

52: 8-4-7

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey50%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo40%
Early Speed100%
Rating80%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
4: 0-0-0
Second-up
3: 0-0-0
Third-up
3: 0-0-2
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Sale
20: 2-3-3
Track Cranbourne
2: 0-0-0
Track Bairnsdale
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1606m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
5: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
29: 8-4-4
Going Heavy
4: 0-0-1
Going Soft
16: 0-0-1

Last starts

9Sale1600m25 Oct 2026 · 3UP BM66 HCP · HEAVY108.26L
1Yea1600m17 Oct 2026 · Open · GOOD3-2.75
11Moe1600m24 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD49.02L
8Sale1717m21 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT65L
9Bairnsdale1600m4 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT55.7L
13Sale1728m28 June 2026 · BM62 · HEAVY810.1L
7Pakenham Synthetic2200m15 June 2026 · 3UP BM62 HCP · SYNTHETIC4.7L
3Sale1717m10 June 2026 · BM62 · HEAVY81.1L

Insights

Wet To Dry
Negative
Coming from a wet to dry (Heavy 8 to Good 4) track may prove difficult

Comments

AAP

On a quick back-up. Seasoned performer. Failed to threaten on a soft deck at Sale at longer odds. Best viewed as a rough place hope.

ILB

On a short turnaround. Couldn't stay in touch when 9th last time at Sale but challenged by less formidable competitors. Hoping that the added weight won't hurt.

Found life tough when 8l back in ninth over 1m at Sale (handicap) last week.

RSIS

Backing up quickly for this race. Didn't threaten when 9th last run at Sale on a heavy track but lining up against easier rivals. Goes up in weight.

13Neck HighScratched7––––

Career

20: 1-3-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey50%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating40%
Closing Speed20%

Record

First-up
4: 0-1-0
Second-up
3: 0-0-0
Third-up
3: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
3: 1-0-0
Track Moe
5: 0-1-0
Track Sale
8: 0-1-0
Track Bairnsdale
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2088m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1419m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
9: 0-1-0
Going Heavy
4: 1-0-1
Going Soft
7: 0-2-0

Last starts

10Sale1600m25 Oct 2026 · 3UP BM66 HCP · HEAVY109.01L
7Moe1600m24 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD46.32L
11Moe1614m8 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · HEAVY86.5L
11Sale1400m21 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT67.8L
7Hanging Rock1800m26 Jan 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD45.5L
8Stony Creek1600m18 Jan 2026 · 0 - 56 · SOFT57.3L
7Sale1717m8 Jan 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD38.05L
12Stony Creek1600m30 Dec 2025 · 3UP BM56 HCP · GOOD410.9L

Insights

Wet To Dry
Negative
Coming from a wet to dry (Heavy 8 to Good 4) track may prove difficult

Comments

AAP

On a short back-up. Found it tough since shaking his maiden. Failed to threaten (wide barrier) on a soft deck at Sale as a despised outsider. Needs to lift to figure. On trust.

ILB

On a quick turnaround. Faded to finish 10th last time at Sale but competing in a lower grade.

Useful in this grade; finished just behind Grand Sage when last at Sale over 1m (handicap) on Sunday.

RSIS

Backing up quickly. Weakened under pressure when 10th last run at Sale but up against a less challenging field.

14Anything ButScratched10––––

Career

124: 9-10-13

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey50%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo40%
Early Speed20%
Rating20%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
9: 0-1-0
Second-up
8: 0-1-0
Third-up
7: 0-1-2
Fourth-up
6: 0-0-1
Track Bairnsdale
7: 0-0-0
Track Te Aroha
2: 0-1-0
Track Traralgon
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1608m
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1715m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1765m
1: 0-0-0
Going Firm
5: 0-0-1
Going Good
63: 7-8-8
Going Heavy
10: 0-0-0

Last starts

6Yea1600m17 Oct 2026 · Open · GOOD35L
9Pakenham Synthetic1000m5 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · SYNTHETIC5.9L
7Sale1717m3 May 2026 · 0 - 62 · GOOD311.8L
5Moe2050m25 Apr 2026 · 0 - 56 · GOOD411.9L
8Yea1600m18 Apr 2026 · Open4L
3Balnarring2000m11 Apr 2026 · Open8.8L
5Tambo1650m5 Apr 2026 · Open4L
6Sale1400m29 Mar 2026 · BM62 · SOFT68.8L

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -22% POT in their L100 Races
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 46%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Down In Weight
Positive
Drops 10.5kg from LS run

Comments

AAP

Unable to make an impression at Yea second-up. Keener on others.

ILB

Was nothing special when 6th last run at Yea.

Useful in this grade; finished last, beaten 5l by Grand Sage at Yea 14 days ago upped to 1m.

RSIS

Not up to scratch when 6th last time at Yea.

Odds correct as at Sat 31 Oct, 3:50 pm AEDT. Odds can change.