Cranbourne (VIC) horses tips & previews

9 Nov, 9:06 am AEDT

One race at a time: field, form guide and win/place odds for Cranbourne (VIC), with capture times on every price.

Meeting — Fri 6 Nov, 11:00 am AEDT

Meetings · Fri, 6 NovCranbourne (VIC)Change

Race 2 — Ladbrokes More On Tote Win Mdn Plate 1200m · jumps Fri 6 Nov, 6:45 pm AEDT

Race preview

Cranbourne's second race on Tuesday evening is a maiden plate over 1200 metres in good going, and it's got all the hallmarks of a genuine puzzle. Vespers is the shortest in the market, followed by Engulf, then Lonnegan and Silver Lightning. This is a field where three runners have won a combined solitary minor placing from 25 career starts—there's no form horse here, just a collection of maidens hunting that breakthrough. The yarn is wide open, which usually means the punters who've done their homework have a real shot at value.

Vespers shapes as the market's logical choice. The three-year-old comes in fresh for a second campaign after 26 weeks out and has drawn nicely in barrier two, which should allow jockey Jason Maskiell to effect an onpace position from the speedMap data. The last two runs at Pakenham were respectable efforts—a close third over 1400 metres in heavy ground, then a fourth in better conditions—and the comment flags this as a key player returning to the races. However, that trainer strike rate sits at just 6%, a concern worth weighing. Engulf presents an intriguing alternative. The four-week spell between runs should sharpen the legs after a debut at Ballarat, and Luke Cartwright's booking is noteworthy; the rider is running 44 per cent above market expectations in recent rides. The barrier eight draw is a genuine check, but the AAP insight suggests more was left in the tank at debut over shorter ground, implying the extra 200 metres suits.

Lonnegan deserves serious consideration as a roughie with genuine data on its side. The three-year-old was no match on debut at Echuca but ran on into the minors, and the comment says the run does warrant attention. Both jockey Damien Thornton (17 per cent above career average) and trainer M M Laurie (20 per cent POT in recent runners) are showing solid ROI trends, and the colt will lead from barrier six in the speedGroups data. It's only raced once over 1000 metres on good ground, so this step up to 1200 metres in similar conditions is genuinely unknown territory. For those keen on the shorter prices, Vespers and Engulf carry the form narrative, but Lonnegan's story—a debut improver with backers in the stable and saddle—might just tell the better yarn at a generous quote.

Race notes

3UP MDN-SW,3yo+,MDN-SW,Maiden
GOOD4
Overcast
8 runners

Shortest win price

Engulf (10)

3.30

Speed map

Back left · leaders right

Backmarker

1Native Spirit
8Toy Maker
10Engulf

Offpace

6Fanfire
2Silver Lightning

Onpace

9Vespers

Firststart

7Faro Lady

Leader

4Lonnegan

Native Spirit · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 44% in Last 100 Rides
Silver Lightning · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Lonnegan · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 17% in Last 100 Rides
Fanfire · Negative
Trainer Career
Trainer Career S/R is 6%

No.RunnerBarWgtLast 5WinPlace

1Native SpiritJ: Dylan Dunn·T: R J Besanko759.5kg7 11 8 10 711: 0-0-0$61.00$6.00

Career

11: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating20%
Closing Speed60%

Record

First-up
4: 0-0-0
Second-up
3: 0-0-0
Third-up
3: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-0
Track Kilmore
1: 0-0-0
Track Mornington
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1240m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
9: 0-0-0

Last starts

7Mornington1200m22 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD38.35L
10Kilmore1200m28 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD36.92L
8Moe1108m8 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · HEAVY810.4L
11Pakenham1400m5 Mar 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD415L
7Pakenham1400m12 Feb 2026 · 3-5Y MDN-SW · GOOD45.3L
8Pakenham1200m29 Jan 2026 · 3-5Y MDN-SW · GOOD48L
10Cranbourne1600m31 Oct 2025 · 3yo+ · GOOD46.2L
6Pakenham1400m17 Oct 2025 · 3UP MDN-SW · SOFT56L

Insights

Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 44% in Last 100 Rides
Jockey Booking
Positive
Dylan Dunn 55% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Hot Jockey
Positive
Dylan Dunn in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 55%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Needs To Imp
Negative
Finished towards the tail last start
Awkward Draw
Negative
Would have liked a better draw
Limited
Negative
Hasn’t featured at all in all career runs

Comments

AAP

Has struggled to make an impression. Failed to flatter at Mornington over this trip. Yet to produce any convincing form.

ILB

Was $151.00 and disappointing display when 7th last start at Mornington. Yet to place in 11 attempts. Gets back and needs luck. Pass.

Missed the frame (beaten 8l into seventh, Mornington) two weeks ago; still winless and defeats stacking up (11 on the bounce) and generally been out of sorts of late; passed over.

RSIS

Odds of 150/1 and below par when 7th last run at Mornington. Unplaced in all races to date. Does take a while to get into stride.

2Silver LightningJ: Liana Wood·T: P Foster459.5kg7 4 4 7 510: 0-0-1$7.00$2.10

Career

10: 0-0-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating60%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
3: 0-0-1
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Kilmore
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham
1: 0-0-0
Track Sale
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1212m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
5: 0-0-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
4: 0-0-0

Last starts

5Sale1200m25 Oct 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · HEAVY103.6L
7Cranbourne1200m9 Oct 2026 · 4UP MDN-SW · GOOD36.35L
4Caulfield Heath1200m20 May 2026 · MDN · SOFT64.7L
4Kilmore1212m15 May 2026 · 4UP MDN-SW · SOFT64.8L
7Pakenham1600m1 May 2026 · 2UP MDN-SW · GOOD45.1L
11Caulfield1400m11 Apr 2026 · CL3-SW · SOFT78.1L
6Ballarat1400m3 Apr 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD32.7L
4Caulfield Heath1200m18 Mar 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD42.6L

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 8% POT in L100 Runners
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Winkers On
Positive
Important gear change of winkers on

Comments

AAP

Not disgraced in soft going at Sale second-up at $101. Others with more appeal.

ILB

Outpaced some runners late when 5th last start at Sale on a heavy track. Large claim helps. Watch betting.

Not beaten that far (Sale) last month; yet to get off the mark and losing run stands at ten; unlikely to achieve more than just a supporting role.

RSIS

Crept into 5th last start at Sale. Large claim helps. Not at all out of this race.

3GanglandScratched10––––

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer40%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed80%
Rating50%
Closing Speed40%

Insights

Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 10%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -40% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 35%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 45% Profit on Turnover
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Raceday Experience
Positive
Wiser for debut run
Blinkers On
Positive
Trainer has opted for the Blinkers on, take note

Comments

AAP

Back for second campaign (12-weeks). Beaten but by no means disgraced at career opener. Jump-out winner since. Right in the mix fresh in this affair.

ILB

Resuming after a spell. Odds of $1.55 and looked outclassed when 6th last run Ballarat Synthetic but having second career run.

RSIS

First run back. Started 4/7 and didn't threaten when 6th last start Ballarat Synthetic but fitter for debut run.

4LonneganJ: Damien Thornton·T: M M Laurie658kg31: 0-0-1$4.60$1.55

Career

1: 0-0-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating60%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Echuca
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
1: 0-0-1

Last starts

3Echuca1000m19 Oct 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · GOOD42.6L

Insights

Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 17% in Last 100 Rides
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 20% POT in L100 Runners
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Raceday Experience
Positive
Wiser for debut run
Blinkers On
Positive
Trainer has opted for the Blinkers on, take note
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

No match but ran on for the minors at Echuca on debut 19 Oct. Better for it. Warrants attention.

ILB

Displayed good finishing speed when 3rd beaten by more than 2 1/2L last start at Echuca and was on debut last time. Has early speed and positions nicely. Must be considered here.

Respectable debut effort in Echuca maiden over 5f at 6-1 last month; couldn't rule out improvement although wouldn't get too carried away.

RSIS

Hit the line well when 3rd last start at Echuca and was on debut last time. Will be positive in the run early. Definitely worth considering.

5Pocket WatchScratched5––––

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed50%
Rating100%
Closing Speed50%

Insights

On Debut
Positive
First race start

Comments

AAP

First starter out of an unraced Frankel mare Ting Ting. 5th & 4th at recent jump-outs. Trained here. Follow betting leads.

ILB

2yo runner on debut by Tagaloa for Grahame Begg. Keep your eye on the market.

Has a nice pedigree (by Tagaloa); trainer has a healthy record with newcomers; definite chance.

RSIS

Grahame Begg trained 2yo by Tagaloa having first race appearance.

6FanfireJ: Jake Noonan·T: Julius Sandhu157.5kg6 5 4 4 74: 0-0-0$13.00$3.10

Career

4: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

100

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating80%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Yarra Valley
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Track Echuca
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1009m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

7Yarra Valley1009m24 Oct 2026 · 4yo+ · SOFT59.56L
4Echuca1200m8 Mar 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · GOOD43.3L
4Cranbourne1000m13 Feb 2026 · 3Y F MDN-SW · GOOD311L
5Ballarat Synthetic1100m19 Aug 2025 · 3Y MDN-SW · SYNTHETIC7.05L
6Horsham800m20 May 2025 · Barrier Trial7.5L

Insights

Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 6%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 24%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 18%
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 1
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Lightly raced and still learning the caper. Failed to threaten at Yarra Glen for new stable. Better conditioned. Can forgive last start.

ILB

At $5.50 gave away some ground when 7th last run at Yarra Valley. Looking for an improved run and gets the perfect alley. Suited against these.

Finished seventh, beaten 10l, at Yarra Glen over 5f (maiden) last month on debut for this trainer.

RSIS

At 9/2 weakened to finish 7th last run at Yarra Vstall. Should improve here and has the ideal draw. Should go close.

7Faro LadyJ: Jason Maskiell·T: K F Milham357.5kg–$10.00$2.60

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed50%
Rating40%
Closing Speed50%

Insights

Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 48% lower than Career Avg.
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 60%
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 63% in L100 rides
Watch Betting
Negative
If supported, follow in
Blinkers On
Positive
Trainer has opted for the Blinkers on, take note

Comments

AAP

Out of a winning mare. Dundeel 4yo lining up for her first official race start. 2nd at a Moe jump-out 21/10. Drawn well. Check the markets.

ILB

Kevin Milham 4yo by Dundeel having first race appearance. Follow the money.

Sire capable of producing high class offspring; first public outing; clear chance as some good aspects to her profile.

RSIS

Initial race appearance 4yo by Dundeel for trainer Kevin Milham.

8Toy MakerJ: Jye Mcneil·T: Simon Zahra557.5kg6 5 93: 0-0-0$8.00$2.30

Career

3: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey80%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
Early Speed20%
Rating60%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Yarra Valley
1: 0-0-0
Track Terang
1: 0-0-0
Track Kyneton
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1218m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1406m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0

Last starts

9Terang1406m17 Mar 2026 · MDN-SW · SOFT68.9L
5Kyneton1218m27 Feb 2026 · 3UP MDN SW · SOFT64L
6Yarra Valley1200m7 Feb 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD43.2L

Insights

Stable In Form
Positive
Stable going well. Out performing market by 46%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 27% POT in L100 Runners
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Blinkers On
Positive
Trainer has opted for the Blinkers on, take note
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Returns for second campaign (33-weeks). Recent Flemington jump-out winner. Not out of it fresh in this affair.

ILB

Back after break of 33 weeks. Started $15.00 and struggled with the pace when 9th last time at Terang. Expecting improvement here. Should get going late. Genuine claims.

Finished ninth of 12 over 7f at Terang (maiden) in March; yet to get off the mark in three attempts (fifth her best finish); layoff to overcome; is passed over.

RSIS

Back after a 33 week break. Started at 14/1 and folded up in the straight when 9th last time at Terang. Expected to rebound. Must be considered here.

9VespersJ: Luke Nolen·T: J F Moloney257.5kg6 3 4 34: 0-0-2$3.90$1.38

Career

4: 0-0-2

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
Early Speed100%
Rating60%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham
3: 0-0-2
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
3: 0-0-2
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-2
Going Good
2: 0-0-0

Last starts

3Pakenham1400m8 May 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · HEAVY84.3L
4Pakenham1400m23 Apr 2026 · 3Y FILLIES MDN SW · GOOD43.8L
3Pakenham1400m16 Apr 2026 · 3UP F&M MDN-SW · HEAVY83.3L
6Geelong1200m1 Apr 2026 · 3YF MDN-SW · GOOD44L

Insights

Trainer SR
Negative
John Moloney striking at just 6%
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 23%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 18%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Improved L/S
Positive
Improved again last start
1st Up
Negative
May need this run

Comments

AAP

Kicks off second campaign (26-weeks). Drawn to effect. Key player fresh in this affair.

ILB

Back from a 26 week spell. Despite getting tired late still grabbed 3rd last time at Pakenham on a heavy track and gets a favourable gate. Can't leave out of your calculations.

Not disgraced in third over 7f at Pakenham (maiden) in May; back from an absence here; Luke Nolen a good booking; warrants respect.

RSIS

Back from a break of 26 weeks. Claimed late when 3rd last start at Pakenham and gets a favourable stall. Displays good tactical pace.

10EngulfJ: Luke Cartwright·T: C W Mcdonald856kg52: 0-0-0$3.30$1.34

Career

2: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed80%
Rating60%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0

Last starts

5Ballarat1000m9 Oct 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD42.15L

Insights

Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 52% better than Career Avg.
Key Rider
Positive
Luke Cartwright 44% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 7% POT in L100 Runners
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Gap In Runs
Negative
Not raced for 28 days

Comments

AAP

Now 4 weeks between runs. Held safely but not too far away at Ballarat debut. Experience a positive. Extra ground may help. Should take a positive step and have more to offer.

ILB

Odds of $7.50 and made ground when closing off to finish 5th last time at Ballarat and was a debutant last start. Has a nice turn of foot. Definite contender.

Not beaten too far (just over 2l) on her debut at Ballarat at 13-2 last month; possible improver with outing under her belt although has plenty to find.

RSIS

Started 13/2 and improved when 5th last run at Ballarat and having second race start. Displays good closing pace. Can measure up against these.

Odds correct as at Fri 6 Nov, 6:50 pm AEDT. Odds can change.

Past meetings

Fri 23 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 8 races
Fri 16 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 8 races
Fri 9 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 9 races
Fri 2 Oct, 10:00 am AEST · 8 races
Fri 25 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 8 races