Shortest win price
Mainmankash (1)
2.25
Cranbourne serves up a Benchmark 70 sprint at 955 metres on a Good 4 track under overcast skies at 8:45 pm AEDT. The win market has Mainmankash as the shortest price, with Magnabelle Royale next, followed by Speir and Pano's Pride. It's a race that sits nicely for a runner ready to bounce back or make a statement in this grade.
Mainmankash holds favouritism off a 62-day let-up, and the form line reads solid — a winner at Sale 21 August in a 1000-metre 3yo+ race, though the horse punctured badly when leading at Sandown-Hillside last start in a Benchmark 88. Jason Maskiell gets the ride from barrier 2. The jump-and-run profile suits the track, yet the jockey's recent strike rate is running 48 per cent lower than career average, which tempers the appeal. Speir, meanwhile, is second-up and drawn wider in barrier 6 under Sam Kennedy. The pair make up the leader group, though Speir's last start at this track two runs back showed promise when second in a 3yo+ race at Good 3 going. Kennedy's riding 29 per cent above career average returns, and the Kennedy–Nathan McPherson combination is firing 64 per cent better than market expectations. The AAP report flags Speir ready to peak at third-up, and that narrative carries weight.
Magnabelle Royale, rated 100 on the IRD scale but shortest on the win board, threw in a forgettable run last time at this track over 955 metres, settling back and finishing out of the placings in a Benchmark 78 race. Bailey Kinninmont takes the reins from barrier 1, though the trainer's stable is running at just 20 per cent POT across the last 100 runners — a stark warning. For value, Pano's Pride resuming off 35 weeks with Caitlin Hollowood from barrier 4 has the Dean Binaisse stable performing 76 per cent above market and the jockey–trainer combo out performing by 182 per cent. Binaisse's third-up record reads 2-0-0 from two attempts, and the horse can go forward fresh in this company. That's the narrative we'd follow.
Shortest win price
Mainmankash (1)
2.25
Most career wins
Pano's Pride
6-3-1 from 22 starts
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Offpace
Onpace
Leader
Mainmankash · Negative
Current SR
Rider’s recent POT is returning 48% lower than Career Avg.
Speir · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 29% in Last 100 Rides
Pano's Pride · Positive
Hot J/T Combo
Combo are out performing market expectations by 182%
Weapon Clear · Negative
Rider
Negative rider change today
Career
9: 4-2-1
Rating · IRD
87
Speed map
Leader
First-up
3: 1-2-0
Second-up
2: 1-0-1
Third-up
2: 2-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Sale
5: 3-2-0
Track Bairnsdale
1: 1-0-0
Track Sandown
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
5: 3-0-0
Distance 1006m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1012m
1: 0-1-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-1-0
Going Soft
5: 2-1-1
Going Good
3: 2-0-0
Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 48% lower than Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 60%
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 63% in L100 rides
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 11%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
AAP
Let-up (62-days). Jump-and-run flyer. Solid 62kg winner at Sale 21 Aug. Punctured badly after leading in the 1000m 3yo+ (Bm88) at Sandown-Hillside. Can bounce back here.
ILB
First up and gave them all something to chase to win by a margin of 3 3/4L first up last preparation at Sale. Stepping down to a lower level. Capable type.
RP
Grade looks suitable; not disgraced when sixth at Sandown in September; he knows the task at hand and looks a likely player.
RSIS
Resuming and took charge of the race to win by a margin of 3 3/4L resuming last preparation at Sale. Should come to hand quickly. Jason Maskiell rates highly. Competitive type.
Career
11: 4-2-1
Rating · IRD
97
Speed map
Leader
First-up
4: 1-1-0
Second-up
2: 0-1-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat
1: 1-0-0
Track Warrnambool
1: 0-0-0
Track Cranbourne
2: 1-1-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 888m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 955m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
9: 4-2-1
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 29% in Last 100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 64%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 36% POT in L100 Runners
Hot Jockey
Positive
Sam Kennedy in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 57%
Form At Track
Positive
1 time winner here at Cranbourne
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Weight Increase
Negative
Rises 6.5kg now
AAP
Alertly away to lead, stuck on solidly 3yo+ (Bm78) this track when second-up. Ready to peak third-up. Worth a look.
ILB
Outgunned at the finish when 2nd beaten by 3L last time at this venue but hoping that the added weight won't hurt. Should come to hand quickly. Will show up at the business end.
RP
Ran well to finish runner-up (beaten 3l) when ahead of Magnabelle Royale last month; has won here; has maintained his consistent level of form; must be respected.
RSIS
Peaked on the run when 2nd last start around here but going up in weight. Will be positive in the run early. Worth a lot of thought in this race.
Career
48: 8-12-5
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
5: 1-2-1
Second-up
4: 2-1-0
Third-up
4: 1-0-1
Fourth-up
4: 0-2-0
Track Ballarat
2: 0-0-0
Track Sale
1: 1-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
4: 2-1-1
Distance 1017m
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1100m
4: 1-0-0
Distance 1108m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
17: 2-2-2
Going Heavy
10: 2-2-2
Going Soft
14: 3-5-1
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Consecutive Wins
Positive
Has strung together a few races in a row
Track Stats
Positive
Excels at this track
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Strong win from just off the leaders at Sale. Well into preparation now, can fill the minors here.
ILB
Finished hard to win last start at Sale. Unbeaten last 2 starts. Jockey Hayley Spitse is very comfortable steering. The large claim from Hayley Spitse should help.
RP
Bidding for a hat-trick; has won here previously; caused 20-1 upset at Sale last month; despite that Sale success, passed over.
RSIS
Reeled them in to win last time at Sale. Unbeaten last 2 attempts. Hayley Spitse is very comfortable aboard. The large claim from Hayley Spitse helps.
Career
22: 6-3-1
Rating · IRD
75
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
3: 1-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-1-0
Third-up
2: 2-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-1
Track Mornington
1: 0-1-0
Track Cranbourne
6: 2-1-0
Track Yarra Valley
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1100m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1170m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1200m
6: 1-1-0
Going Good
16: 4-2-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-1-0
Going Soft
5: 2-0-0
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 182%
Hot Trainer
Positive
Dean Binaisse in good form, out performing market 76%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 58% POT in L100 Runners
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Resuming (35-weeks). Can go forward. Could get into the placings fresh in this company.
ILB
First run back after a 35 week break. Jumped at $9.00 and weakened to finish 7th last run at Caulfield Heath. Caitlin Hollowood and Dean Binaisse are a strong duo. Place claims at best.
RP
Fair effort when beaten just over 2l over 5½f at Caulfield (handicap) in March; has won at this course; returns from an absence here; this looks a decent race so others have more pressing claims.
RSIS
Back from a break of 35 weeks. At 8/1 couldn't stay in touch when 7th last run at Caulfield Heath.
Career
13: 4-0-1
Rating · IRD
71
Speed map
Leader
First-up
4: 2-0-0
Second-up
3: 0-0-1
Third-up
3: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 1-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
2: 1-0-0
Track Bendigo
6: 3-0-0
Track Sandown
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
9: 3-0-1
Distance 1100m
2: 1-0-0
Going Good
1: 1-0-0
Going Heavy
5: 2-0-1
Going Soft
7: 1-0-0
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 97%
Trainer Form
Positive
In form stable, out performing market expectations 76%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 58% POT in L100 Runners
Ideal Map
Positive
Map position exceeding market by 1%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Awkward Draw
Negative
Would have liked a better draw
AAP
Let-up (72-days). Determined effort to secure victory at Bendigo. Can make his presence felt again fresh in this company with even breaks.
ILB
Goes well when fresh. Ran over the top of them when winning last start at Bendigo but has more weight to carry. Will be positive in the run early. Will need to elevate.
RP
Scored narrowly in a handicap at Bendigo in August; has won here; despite that Bendigo success, may have to settle for supporting role at best.
RSIS
Has multiple wins when resuming. Rocketed home when winning last run at Bendigo but hoping that the added weight won't hurt. Will be pushing for a forward position early.
Career
9: 4-0-1
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
3: 3-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-1
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Hamilton
1: 0-0-0
Track Traralgon
1: 1-0-0
Track Sandown
1: 0-0-1
Distance 955m
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1000m
5: 2-0-1
Distance 1100m
2: 1-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 1-0-0
Going Soft
5: 2-0-1
Going Good
3: 1-0-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 20% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 11%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 1
Track Stats
Positive
Excels at this track
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Settled back and didn't figure over this trip in the 3yo+ (Bm78) this track. Warrants attention.
ILB
Was $16.00 and chased well when 5th last time at this venue and has drawn the rails. The large claim from Bailey Kinninmont should help. Should put in a decent effort.
RP
Winning form over C&D; finished just behind Speir when fifth last month; plenty of appeal if in the same mood as when achieving most recent success.
RSIS
Started at 15/1 and crept into 5th last start here and gets the perfect draw. Large claim helps. Should give this a shake.
Career
22: 5-3-4
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-0
Track Echuca
1: 0-0-0
Track Seymour
1: 0-0-1
Distance 975m
7: 3-1-1
Distance 1000m
4: 1-1-0
Distance 1009m
1: 0-0-1
Going Heavy
4: 1-0-0
Going Soft
3: 2-0-1
Going Good
15: 2-3-3
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 49%
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Awkward Draw
Negative
Would have liked a better draw
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Weight Drop
Positive
Drops 4.5kg from LS run
AAP
Raced in back half and was never in a position to mount a serious challenge at Swan Hill. New to Cranbourne. Others more persuasive.
ILB
Jumped at $6.50 and didn't find the line when 6th last start at Swan Hill and competing at a higher level of competition. Looks hopeful at best.
RP
Not disgraced in sixth at Swan Hill (dropped back to this distance) last Tuesday; a proven winner with a career wins-runs record of 5-22; stable has been going through a quiet spell; this looks a fair heat so may be vulnerable.
RSIS
Was 11/2 and faded to finish 6th last run at Swan Hill and matched against a stronger field. Likely to get back in the field.
Career
15: 4-3-1
Rating · IRD
77
Speed map
Leader
First-up
4: 0-1-1
Second-up
3: 2-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Sandown
2: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham Synthetic
1: 1-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
6: 1-2-1
Distance 955m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
14: 4-3-1
Going Good
7: 2-1-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
6: 1-2-1
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 21% in Last 100 Rides
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 9% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 11%
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
2nd Up S/R
Positive
Has won 2 from 3 when second up
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Weight Increase
Negative
Rises 4kg now
AAP
Now 5 weeks between runs. Jump-and-run flyer. Posted a determined win at Pakenham Synthetic. Will take stopping in this company.
ILB
Led and controlled the pace when winning by a margin of a long neck last start at Pakenham Synthetic and form has been improving over recent runs. Modest contender.
RP
Narrow 16-1 winner (Pakenham) when accounting for two of these last month; has won here previously.
RSIS
Led throughout to win by a long neck last time at Pakenham Synthetic and on an upward trajectory in recent races. Should muster plenty of early toe.
Career
34: 5-8-5
Rating · IRD
76
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
8: 2-1-1
Second-up
6: 2-0-1
Third-up
6: 1-2-2
Fourth-up
5: 0-2-0
Track Seymour
1: 0-1-0
Track Moonee Valley
3: 0-0-0
Track Echuca
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1209m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
2: 0-1-1
Distance 1500m
1: 0-0-1
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
25: 4-6-5
Going Heavy
3: 0-1-0
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 8%
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 35%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 45% Profit on Turnover
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
AAP
Resuming (32-weeks). Won past couple of jump-outs. Generally competitive fresh. Should run well first-up here.
ILB
First up and strong run when placing 2nd beaten by 1 1/2L first up last preparation here. Likely to get back. Down in trip. Some hope in this event.
RP
Held in ninth over 6f at Sandown (handicap) in March; possesses winning form at this track; useful in this grade; returns from a layoff.
RSIS
Resuming and finished with intent when 2nd resuming last preparation at this venue. Will be giving the leaders a big start. Coming back in trip.
Career
28: 4-6-3
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
5: 0-1-0
Second-up
4: 0-3-0
Third-up
4: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
3: 1-1-0
Track Sandown
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham Synthetic
1: 0-0-1
Track Geelong
3: 0-0-0
Distance 955m
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1012m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1013m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
20: 4-4-1
Going Heavy
3: 0-0-1
Going Soft
4: 0-2-0
Racing Solidly
Positive
In peak form
AAP
Racing consistently. Worked on the speed and just missed in the 3yo+ (Bm62) at Warrnambool. Pace influence. Can play a role with even breaks.
ILB
Competed in a tight contest last time at Warrnambool. Performing honestly since resuming from a break.
RP
Has won here previously; series of good efforts to his name; missed out by a head (Warrnambool) last month.
RSIS
Was agonizingly close last time at Warrnambool. In good condition since resuming from a break.